Boxing betting thread

Mantis Toboggan

I'll have a little nibble on Parker at 9/1 for the KO.

Boooourns

Molina v Kelly is 4/5 to go the distance, thinking of doubling that up with Joshua points. Molina has never been stopped.

Johner

Johner wrote: »

5/1 best price.

I'd be stunned if Parker last the twelve.

megadodge wrote: »

My post was about the 'value bet' which basically means there's a better chance of something happening than the bookies reckon, not that I actually think it's highly likely. In other words it's priced wrongly in my opinion.

I can see this going long for either a late stoppage or a clear points win both for Joshua.

Edit: Just checked on Betfair and you can get Joshua on pts at 6/1 right now.

Morrison J wrote: »

Anyone think there might be a bit of value on Joshua points at the weekend? 4/1.

Looking like a great shout lads. Fair play!

Boooourns

Boooourns wrote: »

Molina v Kelly is 4/5 to go the distance, thinking of doubling that up with Joshua points. Molina has never been stopped.

*cough*

Kaiser84

Had Joshua on points 9/2.

Had Joshua and Ryan Burnett on points double.
Paid just over 9/1.

Kaiser84

Gutted I didn't put a wedge on.

walshb

The boys who had a points win for AJ, good shout..

I felt that the fight was nothing more than a spar. AJ was quite nonchalant for large parts of it. Either that or he’s just not all that good..

normanoffside

Anybody else think Lara at 5/6 is a good bet Vs Hurd?

Sprinter Sacre

Hurd has no defence in my eye but his size is huge and he's relentless. Hurd would be a big MW and must be killing himself to make 154. Lara has experience against that type of fighter though and he was robbed against Williams for me. I'd definitely favour Lara more than what the odds indicate but I feel Hurd will get shorter with time as there's a lot of hype over him and Lara is a typical Cuban who goes under the radar and doesn't get much credit due to his style. I'll probably wait until the props are put on the books.

I like Gallimore to beat Williams on the undercard. Williams looks a little ruined since the Charlo fight and Gallimore is a decent fighter with good power. The price isn't too attractive right now though.

Surely nobody will take on DeGale at that price?

Morrison J

Going to wait till more prices come out before deciding what I'll do on Hurd-Lara.

Hurd is extremely basic but he's massive for the weight and will keep coming forward. Will test Lara's stamina and toughness for all its worth.

I think I'd lean Lara points. Maybe hedged with Hurd in rounds 7-12. Lara should build up an early lead, just a matter of whether he'll see out the late storm.

I agree Gallimore is very live against Williams too. Gallimore can dig and Williams is chinny. Think Williams probably wins on points but if there's decent Gallimore via KO odds about I'll be taking them.

normanoffside

Morrison J wrote: »

Going to wait till more prices come out before deciding what I'll do on Hurd-Lara.

Hurd is extremely basic but he's massive for the weight and will keep coming forward. Will test Lara's stamina and toughness for all its worth.

I think I'd lean Lara points. Maybe hedged with Hurd in rounds 7-12. Lara should build up an early lead, just a matter of whether he'll see out the late storm.

I agree Gallimore is very live against Williams too. Gallimore can dig and Williams is chinny. Think Williams probably wins on points but if there's decent Gallimore via KO odds about I'll be taking them.

Still nothing on the Irish bookies for method of victory but you can get 7/4 in places for a Lara pts victory.
Odds on the straight win for Lara are shortening.

Meanwhile Truax odds have come right in since I posted about him being 5/1 just to beat DeGale, you can only get 3/1 for a Truax win or 5/1 for a pts win.

Not sure it's worth it at those odds anymore...

Morrison J

normanoffside wrote: »

Still nothing on the Irish bookies for method of victory but you can get 7/4 in places for a Lara pts victory.
Odds on the straight win for Lara are shortening.

Meanwhile Truax odds have come right in since I posted about him being 5/1 just to beat DeGale, you can only get 3/1 for a Truax win or 5/1 for a pts win.

Not sure it's worth it at those odds anymore...

7/4 isn't great. More I think, the more I think I might leave it entirely. Hurd on points wouldn't be a complete shocker given the judges tend to favour the come forward fighter. Lara takes fighting negative to a new level. He'll definitely lead early but after that I'm not sure. The size of the ring will be a big difference maker too.

normanoffside

Lara is drifting out to evens to win in places.

I placed a small double on Truax and Lara both to win via points @ around 15/1

normanoffside

pac_man wrote: »

I can see them both going to pts but going with the narrative that Degale took the eye of the ball in the first fight and will rectify that tonight. Hope it comes through for you though.

if i had gotten on this 3 weeks ago it was 30/1. It's almost a regret bet at this stage but it's only a tenner

normanoffside

normanoffside wrote: »

Jessie Vargas is 11/8 to beat Broner at 144lbs.
That's another one I have my eye on

Morrison J wrote: »

Looks good value to me too. I'll prob hold out for the better value on Vargas points though. Can't see Broner getting stopped.

Way too late again.Vargas now a decent favourite and best you can get on a Points win is 5/4.
Gotta jump on more of these bets early doors.

weemcd

Anyone fancy either Lo Greco by KO or Donaire to cause the upset? Tasty odds on both. A small part of me fancies a few quid on Lo Greco because it's Khan and he's been very inactive.

Thoughts?

Sprinter Sacre

Couldn't back someone like Lo Greco and Khan's chin problems are vastly overstated tbh. Not many take the KO punches by Canelo and Garcia. I'd imagine Khan will make light work of him tomorrow.

Donaire/Frampton is a close fight though and odds are off by my eye. Frampton is @1.24 when he should be about 1.4 maybe even 1.5. Does Donaire ever get a decision in Belfast, unlikely. Does he still have the power to get it done, I'd say he does and I'll take a bit of the stoppage odds @9.4

walshb

Greco isn’t much of a digger, and is slow as fook...Khan should pitter patter him into defeat..

Donaire only has a puncher’s chance. I don’t think he puts his punches together anymore...

Morrison J

Some very suspicious betting patterns being reported on the Cummings vs. Keeler fight. Keeler to win in round 3 apparently.

I highly highly doubt Cummings is the type to take a dive but something to keep an eye on.

normanoffside

Morrison J wrote: »

Some very suspicious betting patterns being reported on the Cummings vs. Keeler fight. Keeler to win in round 3 apparently.

I highly highly doubt Cummings is the type to take a dive but something to keep an eye on.

Can't get odds on that anywhere now :pac:

normanoffside

Morrison J wrote: »

Some very suspicious betting patterns being reported on the Cummings vs. Keeler fight. Keeler to win in round 3 apparently.

I highly highly doubt Cummings is the type to take a dive but something to keep an eye on.

looked likely after the 2nd!

liamoreilly

...He may not have got the ko in 3rd, but what a fight this is... they did mention alot of late money in keeler to win...

normanoffside

I have to say, with all the talk of betting fixes, that fight looked a bit dodgy. Cummings did nothing for the last 3-4 rounds after looking good in the middle ones but had loads of energy lest.

Morrison J

Miller v Duhaupas to go the distance - 3/1

Decent value I think.

Miller has come in outrageously overweight and Duhaupas is very very durable. Will hopefully turn into a hugging match down the stretch and go the distance.

Johner

Morrison J wrote: »

Miller v Duhaupas to go the distance - 3/1

Decent value I think.

Miller has come in outrageously overweight and Duhaupas is very very durable. Will hopefully turn into a hugging match down the stretch and go the distance.

304 pounds. :eek: Dear lord, I'd love to know what weight he was before he started camp. :pac:

Kaiser84

Morrison J wrote: »

Miller v Duhaupas to go the distance - 3/1

Decent value I think.

Miller has come in outrageously overweight and Duhaupas is very very durable. Will hopefully turn into a hugging match down the stretch and go the distance.

Good call.

normanoffside

Morrison J wrote: »

Miller v Duhaupas to go the distance - 3/1

Decent value I think.

Miller has come in outrageously overweight and Duhaupas is very very durable. Will hopefully turn into a hugging match down the stretch and go the distance.

Good shot. Saw this yesterday but didn't have the courage to follow through.
A very Hairy moment between 11 and 12 though!!

akelly02

Haye on pts the weekend 11/2 will have a go

Sprinter Sacre

Shocked to see Sadam Ali @5/6 vs Munguia. He was at 4/11 earlier in the week apparently. It is a shame as I do give Munguia a very good chance of starching him. Ali is a decent boxer with decent speed but Vargas got at him with ease and was able to floor him hard, and Vargas is not a big puncher at all. Munguia is a big guy who can hit very hard and even though he's 21 he's got to feel this his chance even though he's fought subpar opposition up until now. Price for stoppage is piss poor though.

Morrison J

Going with a Stevenson & Selby double tomorrow for a bit of added interest. Better than evens.

I think Warrington is going to let this crowd get to him and come in to the ring like a man possessed, completely rush his work and get picked off all night. Selby wins a pretty clear decision or might even get a late stoppage depending on how gun-ho Warrington gets.

I also think Jack likes to trade in the pocket too much and isn't going to be able to stand up to Stevenson's left hand. Think he could go pretty early. Jack survives the early rounds though and he has a right chance of even stopping Stevenson late.

Morrison J

Has to catch up with him eventually I agree but I'm not convinced Jack is the man to show it up tbh. If Jack was a box and move kind of guy then maybe but he loves a trade in the pocket. He's been knocked out before on Shobox, has been in razor close fights with the likes of Groves, Dirrell and DeGale. Moving up another level now. I think it's a very risky fight for him.

I've gone against Jack before though and been proven wrong so we'll see.

Morrison J

Tete is the value bet there for sure.

If the seeding is done the same as last time then I'm pretty sure it's done by whoever held their title the longest.

That'd make the seeding be:

1-Tete
2-Burnett
3-Rodriguez
4-Inoue

So presuming that four win their first round fights it'd be Tete v Rodriguez and Burnett v Inoue in the semi's. On that basis Tete's value looks even better given he's avoiding Inoue till the final.

I struggle to see past Inoue though tbh. He looks like a truly elite fighter I think and a level above the pack.

To be honest though I dunno how comfortable I'd be backing anyone outright. One bad injury and that's your stake in the bin. I was going to back Groves going into the Super Middle tournament given how he somehow wasn't favourite. Thankful I didn't now. I'd be sweating given all these rumours of him getting replaced.

qwabercd

Fury to win on points at 10/1 on the exchange looks decent value to me. Admittedly I know nothing about the opponent but he did go the distance with charr just under 2 years ago. Fury doesn't have crazy KO power and is bound to be a bit rusty after the layoff.

langer91

Nick Webb by KO TKO or DQ against Dave Allen at 13/8 tomorrow night. Had a nice sized bet.

langer91

pac_man wrote: »

Allen seems to be able to take a punch and I'm not sure if Webb is the banger his record suggests given the level of opposition. Are you going on the premise of Allen out of shape?

That and Allen was knocked out a month ago, and is taking this fight on short notice. Also read online that he's taking a break after this fight, and had initially said he was on a break before accepting this fight presumably for a pay check. Given his lack of recovery time, while Webb seems to be in good shape, I'm taking my chances he'll get the stoppage win.

Morrison J

Small gamble on Peynaud to beat Benn @ 10/1. Step up to a 10 rounder for Benn who was hurt by Peynaud before. Full camp for Peynaud this time too.

walshb

10-1 for Peynaud are very generous odds. He almost got the job done first time. Excellent fight. This return match could bevfight of the night.

Rezident

Paddy Barnes might be good value at 21/10 with the home crowd. What do people think?

He should be heavier too and he reckons he's stronger.

PopePalpatine

Rezident wrote: »

Paddy Barnes might be good value at 21/10 with the home crowd. What do people think?

He should be heavier too and he reckons he's stronger.

The Post tipped him in today's paper. They've a decent hit rate at boxing AFAIK.

Morrison J

Askin to beat Okolie at 7/4. All over it.

thebull85

Only tuning into the Glasgow card now, Are joyce and foley on the main card?

thegrowreport

pac_man wrote: »

Anyone know much about Darragh Foley? He talks a good game and is high up in the rankings but has fought nobody . Fighting tonight on boxnation but more interested in his opponents price (21/10).

Well did you bet on him?

Morrison J

Anyone got any thoughts on Porter v Garcia? Porter the underdog and I kinda fancy him to pull it off. Think he'll be a bit too active for Garcia and should have the chin to take his shots coming in.

thegrowreport

pac_man wrote: »

Backed the opponent Chris Jenkins. Open to correction but I think get my money back as it was a technical draw? Was shaping up to be a decent fight until he got cut. Did you do anything yourself? Stephen Ormond was in a great fight.

Nah no money down on any of these fights. Don't do much gambling these days but like to look in on this thread to see what's cookin'.:p

Yes I believe you should get your money back on this result.

Would love to see Foley continue his progress and Yes the Ormond fight was excellent - great result for 'The Rock'. He is flying these days.. Some great Irish talent doing very well lately.

megadodge

pac_man wrote: »

Backed the opponent Chris Jenkins. Open to correction but I think get my money back as it was a technical draw? Was shaping up to be a decent fight until he got cut. Did you do anything yourself? Stephen Ormond was in a great fight.

Not sure about getting your money back. Certainly online if you bet on x to win and x didn't win - tough!

Maybe if it's a local bookie you know well, you could talk him into giving you your money back, but I wouldn't be holding out any major hope.

Technical draws are also the reason I often have a sneaky little bet at very big odds on the draw. Head clash first round and on Betfair at least you could have odds between 50/1 and 75/1. My best one came in at 54/1, only had a fiver on it, but still...

Donald Trump

pac_man wrote: »

Anyone know much about Darragh Foley? He talks a good game and is high up in the rankings but has fought nobody . Fighting tonight on boxnation but more interested in his opponents price (21/10).

Nice fella. Was quiet enough.



Never really stood out as a young lad. At least from the time when I remember him. But that's a long time ago. I'd say he was 16 or 17 before he started boxing so he probably wasn't doing it too long at that stage. Got beaten in the juniors or U21s by a fella from his own club.



I remember reading somewhere about him in an article onilne after he turned pro in Oz and being surprised and searching for photos to see if it was still the same fella. Have been following his progress since then. Boxrec used to have him marked down as Australian, British, then even Japanese at one stage before sticking the tricolour beside his name. I think that is how he was under the radar for most. And being born in England too so they had that down as his place of birth. Although I don't know when he moved to Ireland but he always had a strong Dub accent


Delighted to see him do well though.

megadodge

pac_man wrote: »

Sorry I'm only getting back to this now. I was onto PP and am none the wiser as the chap I was talking to wasn't that clued up on boxing. I did the bet in their shop. I've found this on their website.



The bolded part is where my confusion lies. Is there a difference between draw and technical draw in betting terms? I'd imagine it would be a bit different on betfair as they generally have more markets.

I've no idea what the emboldened bit means, but in general a Technical Draw is a Draw. You'll even see it on boxers records as a draw. You may be thinking of a No Contest, which I believe can be the result in certain jurisdictions in similar circumstances.

On the No Contest bouts, last year I had a few bets on a particular fight and one was 'Yes' to go the distance. It was a No Contest and I got my money back on the other bets, but as the bout didn't go the distance I lost that one - despite my protests to the Helpdesk!

Morrison J

Morrison J wrote: »

Anyone got any thoughts on Porter v Garcia? Porter the underdog and I kinda fancy him to pull it off. Think he'll be a bit too active for Garcia and should have the chin to take his shots coming in.

Going with Porter on points at 11/5. I think Porter is getting very overlooked in this fight. Could very easily be a fighter with no losses. I thought he edged it against Brook personally and the Thurman fight was very close and competitive even though I did have Thurman winning it by a couple of rounds. Thought Garcia was soundly beaten by Thurman in comparison though. 
This will be a close fight but Porter is good value I think.

Morrison J

pac_man wrote: »

Morrison J wrote: »

Going with Porter on points at 11/5. I think Porter is getting very overlooked in this fight. Could very easily be a fighter with no losses. I thought he edged it against Brook personally and the Thurman fight was very close and competitive even though I did have Thurman winning it by a couple of rounds. Thought Garcia was soundly beaten by Thurman in comparison though. 
This will be a close fight but Porter is good value I think.

This fight does nothing for me. Porter is just a bulldozer that leads in with his head. I can envisage it going the distance and maybe Garcia scraping a win.

I'm more interested in your confidence in Askin. I think he's going to struggle with someone so rangey like Okolie.

I'm still not buying Okolie and I also think Askin is a very good fighter in his own right. Just think it's a pure levels fight to be honest. I'd take Askin's boxing ability over Okolie's every day of the week and Askin is a good puncher too. He's getting seriously good sparring with Hughie Fury and Nathan Gorman too.

If Okolie wins I'm no longer doubting him. I really do think he comes unstuck in this one though. Askin is a way better fighter than Chamberlain or Watkins.

Sprinter Sacre

Garcia looks a little too short tonight. Porter as big as 2.4 in some places is good value. Garcia should be no shorter than 1.75 really. I think Palicte @4 to beat Nietes is good value too. Nietes is an all time great of the lower divisions but he's 36 and fighting a bigger, longer, stronger, more powerful fighter as well as jumping up a weight class.