December 2012 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 27-11-2012 4:20pm #1

(not to be confused with winter forecast contest in a separate thread)

We have the usual five questions and a bonus in the very exciting end of year "decider" in what seems to be a close race as I review the November likely scores.

1. Predict the IMT for December, the 1981-2010 average was 5.7 C -- data thanks to Deep Easterly.

2. Predict the maximum temperature for December at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for December at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for however many (seems to be holding at six) met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus question. It's the usual Christmas forecast question .... predict the max and min for Christmas Day (25th, no kidding) at Dublin Airport. As you know, the order is really the min and max, usually, but give them as max then min (as reported for the 24h calendar day). And we always award three extra bonus points if you correctly predict (yes or no) a white Christmas as defined by most bookmakers, falling snow, at any of the official weather stations run by Met-E (not Boards posters at their homes in Greenland etc).

Here's a template, we may have a form in the thread too, so as long as you submit a forecast one way or the other, and the form will be the only way to enter come January. So get used to that, but this month you can do it the old-fashioned way if you wish.

TEMPLATE ...

IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... DUB 25th MAX/MIN ... Y/N

Note if you get max and min out of order, we'll switch it to the right order.

Deadlines as per usual, on time to 0300h Sunday 2nd, but new penalties now apply, it's just 10 points per day regardless of what you score, days run from 0300 to 0300. I will clarify that by counting them down, not much point in entering by 5th but this takes away that problem of being too late, now it's more like too bad than too late.

Good luck and don't forget to enter the seasonal contest too.

Sponge Bob · 27-11-2012 5:02pm

We Have a form.

You may directly enter the data into an entry spreadsheet through this form

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?pli=1&formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=0

You may see PREVIOUS entries via the form at any time. Click Here

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgtUtXLdGJb5dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE&pli=1#gid=0

Once you enter through the form post "Done" in this thread so we know its you.

If you change your mind before closing time reenter through the form again, in full, and post "Done Again" so we know it is still you. No restriction on changes of mind.

People who enter manually by posting values in the thread will have those entries added to the spreadsheet later on.

catch.23 · 27-11-2012 9:14pm

Done.

H2UMrsRobinson · 27-11-2012 9:35pm

IMT 5.1
MAX 11.6
MIN -5.2
PRC 95%
SUN 105%
DUB 25th - MAX 8.5 /MIN -3.2
NO :-(

(the no is a win win IMO)

Bsal · 27-11-2012 10:39pm

Done.

pauldry · 27-11-2012 10:46pm

5.1 ... 12.7 ... -6.1 ... 104 ... 105 ... 11/6 ... N

NIALL D · 27-11-2012 11:03pm

4.0.... 11.2.... -11.7.... 99.... 112.... 3.9/-4.5.... Y

Done

talkabout · 27-11-2012 11:14pm

Done

Redsunset · 28-11-2012 4:39pm

3.5....13....-13.5....68....180...2.5/-10.5...Yes

Tae laidir · 28-11-2012 10:25pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

We Have a form.

You may directly enter the data into an entry spreadsheet through this form

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?pli=1&formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=0

You may see PREVIOUS entries via the form at any time. Click Here

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgtUtXLdGJb5dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE&pli=1#gid=0

Once you enter through the form post "Done" in this thread so we know its you.

If you change your mind before closing time reenter through the form again, in full, and post "Done Again" so we know it is still you. No restriction on changes of mind.

People who enter manually by posting values in the thread will have those entries added to the spreadsheet later on.

Problem is, there is no security.
I think I'll submit for MT!
But we're an honorable lot.
Aren't we?

Harps · 28-11-2012 10:34pm

Done

Sponge Bob · 28-11-2012 10:36pm

Tae laidir wrote: »

Problem is, there is no security.
I think I'll submit for MT! But we're an honorable lot. Aren't we?

Eh??? The "Done" validates the entry. A form entry with no corresponding "done" is simply discarded once entries close.

Google spreadsheets also have a full revision history (visible to editors in file menu) so every single change is fully tracked. You can view the spreadsheet at any time but the only way for a non editor to add data is via the entry form and there is no way to change data. Anybody may download the data at any time and mess around with it in Excel themselves.

tu2j2 · 29-11-2012 12:04am

Done,

been lurking here for long enough that I may as well give this a try

whiteandlight · 29-11-2012 1:45am

Done. Haven't a clue how to forecast but I read regularly so may as well guess!

dacogawa · 29-11-2012 2:30pm

Done!

200motels · 29-11-2012 3:11pm

5.6...12.8....-6.8...129...75...7.8..-2.9

Rikand · 29-11-2012 4:36pm

done

Max Power · 29-11-2012 4:48pm

3.9...13....-10.5....68....160...2.5/-8.5...Yes

delw · 29-11-2012 5:03pm

Done

Jostef · 29-11-2012 5:55pm

Done.

M.T. Cranium · 30-11-2012 12:56am

First of all, here's my forecast ...

5.0 ... 12.5 ... -7.3 ... 100 ... 105 ... 8.5..2.3 .. No

Now, a clarification of the contest structure for 2013, for your information and interest:

We will run the two existing contests just the same way as before, your best ten scores in 2013 and your total score for 2013 will qualify you in the Boards and the MTC Award categories.

A new contest structure is now added, the Seasonal competition, which will also generate an annual champion. This will run from the current month (Dec 2012) to Nov 2013. The points for this contest will be generated as follows:

1. Each season will be scored by total points but to qualify, an entrant must have entered all three months.

2. The annual "seasonal contest -- Weather forum Award" with free postal service within Donegal (details to be confirmed)

will be based on a ranking system that is quite simple, ten points for first, seven for second, five for third and then so on down to one point for seventh to tenth inclusive. The annual winner will be the person whose total ranking score is the highest on this basis, regardless of how many seasons he or she qualifies to score.

This seasonal contest will add a bit of spice to the stew and give those who may feel that they are out of the main contest by summer something to play for besides pride (especially if they mail a lot of letters to Letterkenny).

As usual, I have only a slight idea what I am saying, but as long as you do then we're good.

2 go.