December 2012 Boards forecast contest

Sponge Bob

Valentia Synop at midnight reported what seems to be the Highest Temp of the month so far. 11.9c at MIDNIGHT. :eek: I'd say it will be beaten by sunday but its damn strange to see a monthly max, however fleeting, recorded in the middle of the night. :eek:

M.T. Cranium

I have not been updating IMT etc because of continual missing data but my impression is that the IMT has risen to about 4 C in the past two days.

This midnight high temperature is interesting, oddly enough a little known factoid of North American climate is that midnight highs are surprisingly common in the Great Lakes region, this became apparent to me in my youth as an amateur observer but also doing research, I noticed a lot of cases with the same daily max on successive days and realized this was due to the highs coming around midnight. I think if there is any explanation other than random chance, it might be the timing difference between the lee trough (east of the Rockies) and the position of southern Ontario leading to a statistical peak of lows arriving overnight (after developing in the lee trough during the daytime). It is probably not such a pronounced feature of European weather to have overnight highs but the winter months are largely air mass dependent as incipient solar radiation is almost zero at the best of times.

Speak Now

Valentia had a max of 12.1c at 2 a.m today.

M.T. Cranium

All IMT data now available so have updated IMT to 4.3 C (after 18th, probably sits at 4.4 now).

Sponge Bob

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Valentia had a max of 12.1c at 2 a.m today.

It made it to 12.6c at some stage later.

Sponge Bob

Highest synop to date is 13.3c at each of Shannon Casement and Oak Park in the 12z but Phoenix P showing 14c in the 12z hourly reports meaning 13.6c.

Highest forecast Max is Docarch and Danno @ 13.8c each so they bag their max points today I reckon.

M.T. Cranium

Yes, in that section the guaranteed max points are 18 and 16 out of 20 no matter how big the errors may be, then it's 14, 13 etc down the line to one point, so we may need that list to generate points, or people may get back onto the points train through normal service down around five or so.

I have updated the IMT to 4.6 after 21 days and likely 4.8 after today. It may drift up a bit higher before stalling in the low 5 range.

Precip appears to be very close to 100% of normal through 21 days which may mean that we are sitting at 105% now.

Sunshine was low in the past week and I have truly lost track of it given the large number of distractions and data interruptions earlier, but looking at one station's daily values I can't imagine that it is very far from normal either. A normal amount of sunshine appears to be 1.5 hours a day, so if any of the next ten days is sunny and the rest of the time is mostly cloudy with peeps of sun, then it should remain close to that popular 100% figure.

Once the max temp for the month moves 0.3 or more beyond the highest guess it doesn't matter what happens after that unless you might lose a few points scored the normal way (within 2.0), the "mercy rule" or minimum progression points are already locked in. Also, once the field have shifted from normal scoring to "mercy rule" scoring, but one or two outliers have scoring options, the field are locked in but the outliers can improve or back off to mercy rule scores. Without looking at the actual values but having read the previous post, this would apply if let's say the actual max is 13.7 and we have guesses at 13.8, 13.6, then 13.0 and lower. The 13.0 and lower are now locked into 14,13, etc or the normal scores if those are higher than the progression, but the two high guesses are at 19 points each until the actual value changes, which would have to guarantee the 13.6 guess a score of 16 to 18 either mercy rule or actual, and the 13.8 guess 18 or more ... the main impact of a much higher reading like 15 would be to reduce all field scores to mercy rule values.

The Christmas bonus temps will be scored the usual way, five points for each of your max and min by groups of four in rank order, and I anticipate a close call on the bonus of three with all eyes on Finner or Knock, and people driving by throwing snowballs that they collected from a mountaintop or their freezer.

Let's say in advance that if the weather station reports are ambiguous then we would accept photographic evidence from any location below 200m but if we go that way the points will be 2 for yes and 1 for no. I'm anticipating something like an argument about yes it snowed no it didn't snow at Knock at 0400, with nobody to ask for a definitive answer. Despite my own answer I am pulling for a report of snow in daylight in an obviously human-generated report.

Tae laidir

'Last edited by M.T. Cranium; Today at 18:34. Reason: not enough coffee yet'

A common problem at this time of year.

M.T. Cranium

Too much blood in the alcohol stream, etc.

M.T. Cranium

14.1 at Phoenix Park on Saturday, mercy rule definitely in play now.

Merry Christmas to you all, not sure when I may be able to review the bonus question -- could be well into 27th due to travel plans here -- and at about that time I will post a January contest thread, let Sponge Bob add his table and we'll go from there. Any ideas about a bonus question welcome, my mind is blank on that subject except to say weekend of 5-6 Jan nicely timed for a skill-based forecast based on model guidance.

Just a reminder to all, there are somewhat different time penalties in play for this new season and year, and those are going to bite a little harder into latecomers than has been the case, although at the same time they will leave decisions about very late forecasts entirely up to you since there is no actual cut-off, just a time where there is no longer any point in entering, and to review what we're doing, it boils down to this:

enter 03-15h on 2nd, you lose 5% (not 5% of your score, 5 pt penalty)
enter 15h-03h 2nd-early 3rd, you lose 10% (etc see above)

enter 03-15h on 3rd, you lose 15%
enter 15-03h 3rd to early 4th, you lose 20%

And that continues so if you want to come in on the 6th and lose 45-50 pts that's up to you ... scores cannot go below zero by the way, we will at least give you that.

This will also apply to all months regardless of how busy or quiet the first of the month happens to be, weekend schedules etc. I can tell you that other forecast contests are at least this draconian about late penalties and in fact we are the only ones (compared to two major contests that I regularly enter in UK and USA) that allow a forecast without penalty on the first, the others generally start to apply penalties at midnight plus one minute of the first. And the average penalty rate in those other two contests is about the same as my new rules, except they run a day earlier. So I still believe this is a very user-friendly approach and gives you three hours extra to sober up and get home too. I wish I had had that when I signed this 35-year contract to work free 18 hours a day. (just kidding, I love the opportunity) (just kidding)

Please thank this post if you read it, because I may send PMs to regular entrants with this same information as I wouldn't want anyone to have a nasty surprise based on past procedure.

Tae laidir

Dublin Airport Yesterday Max 7.3, Min 3.4
Smaller spread than forecasted.
LostinAshford looks best

Rikand

Tae laidir wrote: »

Dublin Airport Yesterday Max 7.3, Min 3.4
Smaller spread than forecasted.
LostinAshford looks best

any snow ? lol

pauldry

IMT looks lie its 5.4c
Rainfall around normal
Sunshine same
Min -5.1c
Max 14.1c
Bonus above
No Snow

M.T. Cranium

Will have to check the IMT, you're right that it was 5.4 after 30 days according to monthly data on met.ie but have to wait for 31st to be incorporated. Suspect it won't change but the 5.4 was based on 5.44 so anything higher than 5.5 will push it to 5.5 ... we shall see. Considering how many wet days there were and the enormous rainfalls in parts of Britain, the month has managed to produce a relatively low percentage, could easily have made it a lot higher.

Final data won't be known until 2nd because that's when MS will appear, so be patient everyone, the MS is the official source and sometimes the final figures are not what we expect.

Tae laidir

NEW YEAR WISHES!

There is a man that we all love,
We've known him for so long.
He's quiet and he doesn't Blog,
Happy New Year to you Con.

For every month we check our scores,
To see we're right or wrong,
It's great to win, and sad to loose,
But we have to beat you Con.

But Con is always right up there,
When other Giants are gone.
I wonder what's your formula?
Please Blog it to us Con.

Con listens to each one of us,
Yes, each and every one,
Reducing our extremities,
That's your secret, Con.

There is a lesson for us all,
Although you've never won.
You're a little bit of all of us,
But I'll beat you next year, Con.

Deep Easterly

Based on IMT data only, an interesting phenomena in Dec data as both mean max and mean min finished bang on average (8.4c & 2.5c respectively and set against the 1981-2010 mean). This becomes even more interesting in that the IMT rainfall total for the month also finished just 2% higher than normal so Dec 2012 will go down as being a very average month in middle Ireland! :cool:

M.T. Cranium

The IMT is confirmed at 5.4 now, still from 5.44 ... and my estimate on the precip from checking the eleven stations (mental estimates) is 101% but I will get that officially from the graphs in the MS. Sunshine remains a bit of a mystery until then, will speculate 105%.

Here's my contribution to the poetry section:

There once was a guy named Con Sensus,
who made most of us look quite senseless,
not high and not low,
a guy? we don't know,
but in this group, what are the chances?

:eek::pac::P:o;):cool::D

M.T. Cranium

The December stats are confirmed from the MS ...

IMT 5.4

MAX 14.1 (22nd, Phoenix Park)

MIN -5.1 (11th, Mt Dillon)

PRC was 100% (100 and 5/11 would you believe?)

SUN was 96% (lower than my estimate because Valentia only 62%, I never see that station in the ag reports and the other five averaged 103%)

Bonus already discussed, 7.3 and 3.2, of course N for white Christmas.

Scoring will now begin, look for reports in the hours ahead.

M.T. Cranium

Results of December contest


Forecaster ...... IMT .. MAX .. MIN .. PRC .. SUN .. Dub25 . Y/N .... TOTALS (& seasonal)
________________________________________________________________

DOCARCH ......... 20 .... 18* .. 19 .... 14 .... 08 .... 02..01 ... 0 .... 82 ... 10

Sponge Bob ...... 23 .... 12 .... 14 .... 11 .... 07 .... 04..05 ... 3 .... 79 .... 7
john mac .......... 21 .... 06 .... 20 .... 14 .... 07 .... 04..04 ... 0 .... 76 .... 6
kindredspirit ...... 22 .... 09 .... 11 .... 12 .... 09 .... 04..05 ... 3 .... 75 .... 5
nilhg ................ 24 .... 02 .... 14 .... 12 .... 10 .... 05..04 ... 3 .... 74 .... 4
lumi ................. 23 .... 02 .... 14 .... 15 .... 09 .... 03..03 ... 3 .... 72 .... 3
H2UMrsRobinson. 22 .... 00 .... 19 .... 13 .... 08 .... 02..04 ... 3 .... 71 .... 2

pauldry ............ 22 .... 06 .... 10 .... 14 .... 08 .... 04..01 ... 3 .... 68 .... 1
jambofc***....... 22 .... 08 .... 18 .... 15 .... 06 .... 05..05 ... 3 .... 82-15=67 ... 1
Strasser ........... 20 .... 00 .... 12 .... 15 .... 09 .... 05..02 ... 3 .... 66 .... 1
waterways ....... 20 .... 10 .... 03 .... 12 .... 10 .... 05..03 ... 3 .... 66 .... 1
SeaFields** ...... 16 .... 14 .... 19 .... 05 .... 09 .... 05..05 ... 3 .... 76-10=66 .... 1
rameire ............ 25 .... 00 .... 14 .... 11 .... 08 .... 03..01 ... 3 .... 65
Rocky Bay ........ 24 .... 09 .... 00 .... 13 .... 07 .... 05..03 ... 3 .... 64
Jerry Seinfeld .... 18 .... 07 .... 13 .... 10 .... 06 .... 03..04 ... 3 .... 64
Harps .............. 20 .... 13 .... 00 .... 12 .... 09 .... 04..03 ... 3 .... 64
delw ............... 12 .... 02 .... 20 .... 10 .... 10 .... 04..02 ... 3 .... 63
M.T. Cranium .... 21 .... 04 .... 00 .... 15 .... 08 .... 05..04 ... 3 .... 60
Danno** ......... 23 .... 18* .. 09 .... 10 .... 07 .... 02..01 ... 0 .... 70-10=60

homolumo ........ 24 .... 00 .... 06 .... 14 .... 07 .... 03..02 ... 3 .... 59
Bsal ................ 22 .... 00 .... 08 .... 13 .... 06 .... 03..03 ... 3 .... 58
Hammer Archer**24 ... 10 .... 03 .... 13 .... 09 .... 03..03 ... 3 .... 68-10=58
lostinashford*... 14 .... 00 .... 14 .... 13 .... 08 ..... 05..05 ... 3 ... 62-5=57
talkabout ......... 24 .... 02 .... 00 .... 12 .... 08 .... 05..02 ... 3 .... 56
traecy1 ........... 24 .... 05 .... 03 .... 12 .... 07 .... 02..03 ... 0 .... 56
snowstreams .... 16 .... 15 .... 01 .... 12 .... 07 .... 03..02 ... 0 .... 56

Con Sensus ...... 20 .... 04 .... 01 .... 12 .... 07 .... 03..04 ... 3 .... 54

mickger844posts 16 .... 00 .... 10 .... 10 .... 06 .... 04..04 ... 3 .... 53
200motels ....... 23 .... 07 .... 03 .... 05 .... 06 .... 03..05 ... 0 .... 52
Musicmental85 . 19 .... 11 .... 00 .... 11 .... 05 .... 01..05 ... 0 .... 52

jostef ............. 19 .... 00 .... 00 .... 12 .... 07 .... 03..04 ... 3 .... 48
tu2j2 .............. 20 .... 00 .... 00 .... 13 .... 10 .... 02..03 ... 0 .... 48
Tae laidir ......... 14 .... 11 .... 00 .... 05 .... 04 .... 03..05 ... 3 .... 45
rickylovesuall ... 21 .... 00 .... 00 .... 12 .... 05 .... 02..04 ... 0 .... 44
WolfeIRE ......... 10 .... 00 .... 04 .... 15 .... 10 .... 02..01 ... 0 .... 42
MiNdGaM3 ....... 09 .... 12 .... 01 .... 12 .... 07 .... 01..00 ... 0 .... 42
dasa29 ........... 16 .... 00 .... 00 .... 15 .... 09 .... 01..00 ... 0 .... 41
dacogawa ....... 23 .... 00 .... 00 .... 09 .... 06 .... 02..01 ... 0 .... 41
cherryghost*.... 20 .... 00 .... 01 .... 12 .... 07 .... 01..01 ... 3 .... 45-5=40
Joe Public ....... 14 .... 08 .... 00 .... 08 .... 07 .... 00..00 ... 3 .... 40

okla ............... 13 .... 01 .... 00 .... 12 .... 07 .... 03..01 ... 0 .... 37
NIALL_D ......... 11 .... 00 .... 00 .... 15 .... 07 .... 02..01 ... 0 .... 36
jd .................. 09 .... 00 .... 00 .... 13 .... 08 .... 03..02 ... 0 .... 35
Iancar29**...... 11 .... 04 .... 00 .... 12 .... 09 .... 02..02 ... 0 .... 40-10=30
FionnMcCool87 . 10 .... 09 .... 00 .... 04 .... 00 .... 00..00 ... 0 .... 23
catch 23 ......... 00 .... 14 .... 00 .... 02 .... 03 .... 02..01 ... 0 .... 22
Redsunset ....... 06 .... 09 .... 00 .... 04 .... 00 .... 00..01 ... 0 .... 20
BLIZZARD7** ... 00 .... 02 .... 00 .... 10 .... 00 .... 00..00 ... 0 .... 12
_________________________________________________

*5pt pen (first half day late)
**10pt pen (second half day late)
***15pt pen (third half day late)

* Max temp ... two scores adjusted up to conform with min progression

(no other mercy rule applications required, so well done everyone)

DOCARCH led the way and Sponge Bob defended his overall lead with a second place finish in December. Congrats. John mac had the third highest score. Jambofc matched the raw score of the winner but had a major penalty, the late penalties have increased in this new cycle (we're now into a 2012-13 seasonal contest and the 2013 annual will have the same increased penalties) -- these now bite high and low, no more relief for low scoring late forecasts. OTOH, everyone had a chance to score 103 in December with the bonus-bonus. Looking at the actual penalties, they seem to be about double what they would have been under the old rules.

I will now go over to the annual contest scoring table and update that as soon as inhumanly possible. That will include lunch and possibly a walk to clear my MT Cranium.

DOCARCH

Yeah! Thanks MT

Nice to win one month but too late, I fear, to do much for me in the annual competition - had a bad year.

M.T. Cranium

Will edit that monthly scoring table to show seasonal points, that will continue to be a feature of monthly scoring reports as the seasonal points accumulate.

Meanwhile, here's the updated and final (subject to revisions) scoring table for the 2012 contests.

Annual Scoring Table

(MTC)
Rank*. Forecaster ... J .. F ..M .. A .. M ..J .. J .. A ..S .. O .. N ..D .. Yr Total .. Contest (rank)

1 .. Sponge Bob ......52..50..50..46..52..64..77..41..46..48..87..79 ..... 692 ... 605 (1)
2 .. Lumi ................62..45..28..43..44..57..54..60..66..62..77..72 ..... 670 ... 599 (2)
3 .. Jerry Seinfeld.....56..48..55..46..51..49..69..39..73..30..74..64 ..... 654 ... 585 (3)
5 .. John mac .........62..53..26..53..46..42..49..68..42..48..79..76 ..... 644 ... 576 (4)
4 .. rameire ............65..44..53..56..41..43..64..53..53..58..53..65 ..... 648 ... 564 (5)
7 .. Hammer Archer .52..41..22..35..39..51..69..52..72..55..64..58 ..... 610 ... 553 (6)

7 .. Con Sensus ......58..28..31..46..48..41..54..50..58..58..84..54 ..... 610 ... 551 (7)

10. jambofc ............26..34..22..60..59..40..56..69..56..33..74..67 ..... 596 ... 548 (7)
9 .. nilhg ................67..47..33..55..59..42..18..59..47..40..57..74 ..... 598 ... 547 (8)
8 .. Tae laidir ..........41..44..31..62..57..75..32..43..49..44..78..45 ..... 601 ... 538 (9)
6 .. H2UMrsRobinson.70..54..38..43..43..47..54..45..52..41..58..71 ..... 616 ... 537 (10-t)
13. pauldry .............61..48..45..31..49..56..49..22..39..61..61..68 ..... 590 ... 537 (10-t)
12. kindredspirit ......60..48..39..22..50..35..41..40..42..61..80..75 ..... 593 ... 536 (12)
14. Rickylovesuall ....42..52..30..13..51..36..66..58..55..51..80..44 ..... 578 ... 535 (13)
11. waterways .......58..29..53..33..47..49..52..50..55..44..59..66 ..... 595 ... 533 (14-t)
15. MiNdGaM3 ........33..11..31..45..70..56..64..43..53..56..71..42 ..... 575 ... 533 (14-t)
20. snowstreams .....37..10..28..37..51..48..49..49..67..52..83..56 ..... 567 ... 529 (16)
18. Harps ...............51..25..18..35..47..35..36..73..57..51..78..64 ..... 570 ... 527 (17-t)
16. DOCARCH .........20..27..32..40..41..52..47..65..66..41..61..82 ..... 574 ... 527 (17-t)
18. mickger844posts 62..26..38..27..40..46..62..45..46..77..48..53 ..... 570 ... 517 (19)
17. jd ....................50..28..47..44..53..35..44..48..64..53..71..35 ..... 572 ... 509 (20)
26. Danno ..............48..20..--..44..50..45..35..39..51..69..65..60 ..... 526 ... 506 (21)
22. delw ................57..57..15..25..39..49..52..41..36..42..65..63 ..... 541 ... 501 (22)
21. homolumo .........48..25..24..67..58..19..32..48..55..40..67..59 ..... 542 ... 499 (23)
33. lostinashford .....--..--.. 37..34..40..52..59..40..59..44..67..57 ..... 489 ... 489 (24)
25. M.T. Cranium ....34..41..21..55..65..46..47..18..39..44..57..60 ..... 527 ... 488 (25)
28. cherryghost ......56..51..11..12..44..35..36..53..59..47..65..40 ..... 509 ... 486 (26)
23. okla .................57..21..31..44..51..33..55..63..46..33..62..37 ..... 537 ... 481 (27)
27. SeaFields .........33..15..57..44..36..35..63..49..29..32..58..66 ..... 517 ... 473 (28)
30. Joe Public .........42..21..08..53..66..30..38..47..30..50..75..40 ..... 500 ... 471 (29)
24. traecy1 ............47..36..33..34..47..52..40..44..40..44..63..56 ..... 536 ... 469 (30)
35. Strasser ...........--..20..52..38..29..16..47..43..46..66..61..66 ..... 484 ... 468 (31)
32. dacogawa ........50..14..17..37..59..19..48..48..54..55..50..41 ..... 492 ... 461 (32)
37. talkabout ..........42..26..20..05..58..32..41..66..--..44..75..56 ..... 465 ... 460 (33)
31. 200motels ........56..69..18..31..40..26..53..40..25..24..64..52 ..... 498 ... 456 (34)
29. Iancar29 ..........33..19..26..45..52..32..25..66..39..61..73..30 ..... 501 ... 455 (35)
36. NIALL D ............29..20..28..44..42..32..--..62..63..47..70..36 ..... 473 ... 453 (36)
34. dasa29 ............44..30..16..44..33..29..50..42..58..37..64..41 ..... 488 ... 443 (37)
39. redsunset .........34..11..12..60..41..48..33..16..--..--..40..20 ..... 315 ... 315 (38)

No longer active, and new with four or more ...

38. K_1 .................40..25..71..22..33..59..42..42..--..--..-- ... 334

xx. bsal .................--,,--,,--,,--,,--,,--,,45..49..56..28..72..58 (see below)

Notes:

Hard to compare partial scores but Bsal has been scoring about at the pace of mid-table, so keep it up, you're right in the mix with that set of scores.

Now, as to the table itself, the Annual (boards.ie) contest is ranked at the end of all scores and that's the main order of finish. That contest is of course based on your ten best scores out of however many you had. This makes it necessary to enter ten to be in the running. The secondary contest is based on total score for the year, and that's known as the MTC Award, the rankings for that are the first number in each row. You'll see that the order of finish is not always quite the same but the top three are the same in both contests:

So it's congratulations then to the following top three finishers:

First: Sponge Bob

Second: Lumi

Third: Jerry Seinfeld

and good play to john mac, rameire and Hammer Archer who all managed to beat most of us and Con Sensus too.

H2UMrs Robinson also beat Con Sensus in the MTC part of the contest.

Some contestants did very well later in the year and moved up the table. Keep up that pace and you'll be into the medals for sure.

Just a reminder: the January forecast thread is open in case you forgot to enter.

I have checked these scores fairly carefully but let me know if you spot any errors. Hope you enjoyed the contest, it was a wild ride at times.

Speak Now

Thanks M.T, I think thats 3 years and 3 bronzes for me

kindredspirit

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Thanks M.T, I think that's 3 years and 3 bronzes for me

I'd say that probably puts you on top on a 3 year aggregate.

It would be interesting to see a 3 year aggregate table.

M.T. Cranium

I had a brain cramp, those seasonal scores that I edited into December's scoring table are invalid, we only generate those from seasonal totals. So ignore those points, you would score those if your position after February is what it was in December. Then those points accumulate through four seasons to determine a "four seasons" winner. The more contests I create, the more chance there is for different people to win although Sponge Bob won both of the 2012 contests.

I'll ask over here too, in the January contest, did anyone enter the table as "I love it when a plan comes together?" That is not a valid username and therefore I have no idea who made that forecast.

Hammer Archer

Europa League spot for me. Decent enough. Gunning for a Champions League place this year.