N.I catholics gains massively on the protestant population

maccored

whats the big doo dah about 23% of SF voters polling to keep the status quo? 77% didnt say that.

gurramok

awec wrote: »

Obviously not, but limiting it to South Armagh is pointless when it's only the overall picture that counts. Clearly 23% of Sinn Fein voters polled said they'd vote for the status quo, what area they live in is irrelevant.

Are those SF voters real SF voters? What checks were in place to make sure they were indeed SF voters and not DUP supporters for example?

And how many DUP supporters want a UI? That was never revealed.

Fr Tod Umptious

gurramok wrote: »

Why are you taking it as gospel quoting the poll then in your anti-UI stance?



The poll was of a 1000 people with unknown geographic location and relying on their truthful identity when questioned. Not reliable.

Try this link http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/tv/spotlight/survey.pdf
It goes into geographical, and social detail

It's 279 pages long, happy reading

But as I said it does not matter if one part of the entity is for or against a UI, it's the majority that counts

awec

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Chips Lovell

Question for those who claim the poll's rigged or fraudulent.

If the results said a majority in the North wanted unification with Ireland, would you making the same allegations? Or would you be using it as support for the immediate calling of a border poll?

How would you respond to unionists who cast doubt on its validity? To people suggesting that maybe some unionists who said they were in favour of a united Ireland were really SF voters lying?

Crooked Jack

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

good for you

It would give you that debate you are looking for but you would not be happy with the results.

There's the difference between me and you, Id prefer to give the people all the information and then let them vote. You seem happy enough to just assume what they'd do

awec

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gurramok

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Try this link http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/tv/spotlight/survey.pdf
It goes into geographical, and social detail

It's 279 pages long, happy reading

But as I said it does not matter if one part of the entity is for or against a UI, it's the majority that counts

No it does not go into geographical spread, it mentions Belfast and then the 5 county names(treated as regions) where each county has individual areas Nationalist and Unionist, this latter part is not taken into account.

Its like asking residents only of South Armagh and ignoring North Armagh when using the region Armagh, that would be unfair on Unionists you'd agree.

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But as I said it does not matter if one part of the entity is for or against a UI, it's the majority that counts

Even if they question 1000 Unionists to base their NI poll on?

Crooked Jack

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Question for those who claim the poll's rigged or fraudulent.

If the results said a majority in the North wanted unification with Ireland, would you making the same allegations? Or would you be using it as support for the immediate calling of a border poll?

How would you respond to unionists who cast doubt on its validity? To people suggesting that maybe some unionists who said they were in favour of a united Ireland were really SF voters lying?

I would accept that it was a poll of 1000 people and would base nothing on it and still be in favour of a public debate and full on vote.
Nothing about my opinion of it or the issue as a whole would change.

awec

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maccored

no it doesnt. it shows a small number of apparent sinn fein voters would go with the current status quo. Theres no point in mispresenting the facts and making a song and dance about nothing.

awec wrote: »

Because it goes against the picture that certain elements of republicanism would like to paint of the north. Results like this make them look stupid.

The idea of someone voting for Sinn Fein and not be actively seeking a United Ireland shows a process of normalisation of Northern Ireland and a degree of political maturity, which is something they don't want.

awec

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Crooked Jack

awec wrote: »

Because it goes against the picture that certain elements of republicanism would like to paint of the north. Results like this make them look stupid.

The idea of someone voting for Sinn Fein and not be actively seeking a United Ireland shows a process of normalisation of Northern Ireland and a degree of political maturity, which is something they don't want.

You're just really showing your bigotry here. SF are the ones calling for a full debate covering all the issues of reunification. They want people to truly understand what it means and stop blindly voting along tribal lines. If anything, particularly in the north, they're the only ones showing any level of political maturity. DUP and UUP retreated into the gutters over the whole flags things. The SDLP continue to be a non-entity, completely unsure of what or who they are. One minute they try to portray themselves as a middle-ground alternative to SF, next thing theyre trying to "out-green" them. I'm not sure what the future for Alliance is but I would strongly suspect whenever this proposal to move the flag to the cenotaph comes up they'll revert back to their spineless faux-fence-sitting.

Chips Lovell

Full debate? It's being debated endlessly.

gurramok

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Question for those who claim the poll's rigged or fraudulent.

If the results said a majority in the North wanted unification with Ireland, would you making the same allegations? Or would you be using it as support for the immediate calling of a border poll?

How would you respond to unionists who cast doubt on its validity? To people suggesting that maybe some unionists who said they were in favour of a united Ireland were really SF voters lying?

Same applies. You cannot judge the responses of 1000 people in NI whereby some of those 1000 people would deliberately misstate their national identity and political persuasion "to get one over on the other side".

On the political parties, get the responses from card carrying members of those parties, not on random strangers in the street for a true representation of party members opinions.

Crooked Jack

awec wrote: »

And if the result of said vote goes as expected and a UI motion is defeated, would you drop the issue and accept that NI exists democratically and it is what the majority of the people want?

Absolutely not. I would accept the outcome of an all-Ireland vote and whatever decision was made, I would drop the issue for good. As for a vote just in the six counties, I'd use it as a baseline or benchmark for the next vote. Gather information, analyse the results, learn from it, gauge people's concerns, do more research and campaigning and come back again in 10 years.

mcc1

gurramok wrote: »

No it does not go into geographical spread, it mentions Belfast and then the 5 county names(treated as regions) where each county has individual areas Nationalist and Unionist, this latter part is not taken into account.

Its like asking residents only of South Armagh and ignoring North Armagh when using the region Armagh, that would be unfair on Unionists you'd agree.



Even if they question 1000 Unionists to base their NI poll on?

So basically all opinion polls that have taken place in recent years that fall in line with this poll are all lies now? These sort of polls are scientifically proven to be accurate give or 1 or 2%.

Your pathetic, but by all means keep carrying on believing its all lies, by the time you catch on it will be far too late to change the minds of pro union Catholics in particular.


In the words of Gerry Kelly last night when he heard 23% of Sinn Fein supporters are in favour of the Union -



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Happyman42

Those of you advocating that the issue is settled, do realise that if we took that attitude to polls, David Norris would now be president?
The debate/process is the thing, Arelene will threaten to call SF's bluff, but they won't, because they fear the debate... keep the entrenched in their trenches at all costs.

Crooked Jack

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Full debate? It's being debated endlessly.

No it isnt. True, you have endless threads online of people going "south cant afford it/800 years" etc...
But there has been no real debate. We havent seen any investigation into what it would actually mean, how it would work. We havent seen all the parties in the north, along with southern and british governments lay out their opinions, why they hold them and then back them up.
The numbers havent been crunched, the research hasnt been done, the discussion has not been had, the people have not been asked.

gurramok

mcc1 wrote: »

So basically all opinion polls that have taken place in recent years that fall in line with this poll are all lies now? These sort of polls are scientifically proven to be accurate give or 1 or 2%.

Your pathetic, but by all means keep carrying on believing its all lies, by the time you catch on it will be far too late to change the minds of pro union Catholics in particular.

Define "all polls". Any poll in NI based on the constitutional question is subject to giving misleading results for the reasons outlined, after all its a divided community which has emerged from a bloody civil conflict.

Elections are the true reflection of opinion polls up there, they are the only way to gauge opinion on the matter.

maccored

almost a quarter is less than half of half. Plus how do you know they were actually real SF voters? Polls are just that - polls. They dont and cant replace actual voting. certainly nothing to be crowing about.

awec wrote: »

A small number? It's almost a quarter.

A quarter of people who vote for the party which aligns itself as the republican party would not vote for a United Ireland. You don't see the significance there?

mcc1

gurramok wrote: »

Elections are the true reflection of opinion polls up there, they are the only way to gauge opinion on the matter.

Elections are not a true reflection of anything regarding a united Ireland. Elections and referendums such as this are 2 completely different kettles of fish. As we all know now not everyone who votes for a Nationalist party is in favor of a United Ireland, we see the same thing in Scotland aswell.

If you cant see the difference between an election were people vote for parties based on who they believe will look after their local interests better and a referendum where national interests and things that could effect their lives greatly are at risk then you quite clearly need your head checked.

Opinion polls such as these are a far far better indicator, they use them before assembly elections to see how people will vote and they are pretty spot on aswell...

Deny it all you want but its the truth. It just shows how out of touch Republicans are with the new N.Ireland.

Chips Lovell

Crooked Jack wrote: »

The numbers havent been crunched, the research hasnt been done, the discussion has not been had, the people have not been asked.

Yet you yourself are quite willing to dismiss research and numbers when they are produced?

Crooked Jack wrote: »

Interesting yes, but that's all. This was a poll of just 1000 people using very deliberate language.

awec

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Crooked Jack

mcc1 wrote: »

Elections are not a true reflection of anything regarding a united Ireland. Elections and referendums such as this are 2 completely different kettles of fish. As we all know now not everyone who votes for a Nationalist party is in favor of a United Ireland, we see the same thing in Scotland aswell.

If you cant see the difference between and election were people vote for parties based on who they believe will look after their local interests better and a referendum where national interests and things that could effect their lives greatly then you quite clearly need your head checked.

Opinion polls such as these are a far far better indicator, they use them before assembly elections to see how people will vote and they are pretty spot on aswell...

Deny it all you want but its the truth. It just shows how out of touch Republicans are with the new N.Ireland.

Seriously? republicans are out of touch because they dont look at the results of a small BBC poll and then decide to just abandon their beliefs.
Fair enough, some people here are perhaps being to dismissive of this poll but others are treating it like it's referendum result.

awec

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Crooked Jack

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Yet you yourself are quite willing to dismiss research and numbers when they are produced?

But that only proves my point. That was a poll of 1000 people out of 1.8 million. Im in favour of proper research, proper investigation and a full public debate.

Crooked Jack

awec wrote: »

What have they got to be afraid of?

This poll, and similar, all show an overwhelming support for continuation of the union.

What does SF do to sell a UI to those who are currently against it?

They call for a border poll and use the run up to it to start a national discussion on it and educate people on what it would actually mean. First and foremost this would get people talking about it and examining the real ramifications of it, rather than just dismissing it out of hand.

gurramok

mcc1 wrote: »

Elections are not a true reflection of anything regarding a united Ireland. Elections and referendums such as this are 2 completely different kettles of fish As we all know now not everyone who votes for a Nationalist party is in favor of a United Ireland, we see the same thing in Scotland aswell.

If you cant see the difference between and election were people vote for parties based on who they believe will look after their local interests better and a referendum where national interests and things that could effect their lives greatly then you quite clearly need your head checked.

Opinion polls such as these are a far far better indicator, they use them before assembly elections to see how people will vote and they are pretty spot on aswell...

Deny it all you want but its the truth. It just shows how out of touch Republicans are with the new N.Ireland.

Who is the Republican?

Lets turn the coin over. Not everyone who votes for a Unionist party wants to be part the UK, you see anyone can say anything even if its true or false. Same for your Nationalist party statement.

Please explain how an opinion poll of 1000 people in NI is a true reflection of the state of opinion of everyone on the constitutional question, Nationalists and Unionists. Have you asked 700 Unionists or 700 Nationalists, perhaps you did thorough background checks on those who claim to be Nationalists or Unionists??

At least in NI elections, there are Nationalist and Unionist parties in order to gauge opinion from 1.2m people on the register, far better than a random sample of 1000 people.

awec

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mcc1

Crooked Jack wrote: »

Seriously? republicans are out of touch because they dont look at the results of a small BBC poll and then decide to just abandon their beliefs.
Fair enough, some people here are perhaps being to dismissive of this poll but others are treating it like it's referendum result.

Its not a small poll at all. For a country the size of N. Ireand a poll that size is scientifically proven to be more or less like I said earlier give or take 1% or 2% correct.

Look at Mitchel Mclaughlin of Sinn Fien earlier today when asked about this poll. He said it was all lies basically but in the next sentence used the exact same poll to say there should be a border poll because according to this poll (which only a few minutes before he claimed was lies) 57% believed there should be 1 within the next 7 years lol.........

Thats Republicans all over, they don't like the truth pure and simple. They will just continue to pick and choose the bits they like to suit there agenda and disregard the rest.

awec

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gurramok

awec wrote: »

Er, what do elections tell us about people's opinion on a United Ireland? Diddly squat.

Wishful thinking. SF and SDLP want a UI, their voters vote for them. Likewise voters of the UUP/DUP vote for a Unionist party for the continuation of the UK.

gurramok

awec wrote: »

Are you reading what you are writing?

You are saying that not everyone who votes for a unionist party may be a unionist, same as not everyone who votes for a nationalist party may be nationalist.

Then you are following it up by saying the votes for nationalist and unionist parties are a more accurate way to gauge opinion.

You are contradicting yourself in the same post. Baffling.

No it was a reaction to the myth posted by that poster that voters of Nationalist parties are Unionist.

There are already Unionist parties catering for people who wish to continue the status quo hence they vote Unionist.(including when they want to be Unionists, the Alliance party)

awec

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Chips Lovell

Crooked Jack wrote: »

But that only proves my point. That was a poll of 1000 people out of 1.8 million. Im in favour of proper research, proper investigation and a full public debate.

A sample size of 1,000 people for that population size does count as proper research. It would be taken seriously for a far bigger population than that in fact.

awec

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Crooked Jack

awec wrote: »

No it doesn't. A sample of 1000 people is standard. You are dismissing this research because it doesn't give the result you want.

I'm not dismissing it, I'm simply pointing out the flaws in it and calling for a proper debate and vote. You are clinging to it so tightly because it does give you the result you want. Had it found a majority in favour of reunification would you then leave it at that and call for the border to be abolished?

awec wrote: »

But that's not what I'm asking.

I am asking, what can they say that will get people to change their minds? What are the pro's that will cause votes to swing?

There's your problem. You're asking for a soundbite or sentence that's going to change minds. That's just daft. Like I said, hash out all the issues in public, let parties and governments put forward their proposals, then ask people to make an informed decision. "Would you vote for a UI tomorrow?" is just an idiotic question to ask people without any proposals, assurances or other information.
It's a huge issue, it needs wide ranging and frank debate and investigation, not handy soundbites and the opinions of 1000 people

awec

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Chips Lovell

Why should both governments have to put forward proposals when they're happy with the status quo? Surely it should be up to those who want a change in the status of Northern Ireland to make their case and start persuading people to change their minds.

Crooked Jack

mcc1 wrote: »

Its not a small poll at all. For a country the size of N. Ireand a poll that size is scientifically proven to be more or less like I said earlier give or take 1% or 2% correct.

Look at Mitchel Mclaughlin of Sinn Fien earlier today when asked about this poll. He said it was all lies basically but in the next sentence used the exact same poll to say there should be a border poll because according to this poll (which only a few minutes before he claimed was lies) 57% believed there should be 1 within the next 7 years lol.........

Thats Republicans all over, they don't like the truth pure and simple. They will just continue to pick and choose the bits they like to suit there agenda and disregard the rest.

I'm sorry but this sort of crap, which you have come out with several times already in this thread, just makes you impossible to talk to.
Come back to me when you grow up a little.

awec

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Crooked Jack

awec wrote: »

That's not daft at all.

If you want people to vote for a UI you have to give them reasons why.

What do you think SF could say to swing votes? You want debate, so what do you think they could put on the table that would cause debate and make people think?

We're going round in circles here. It's a massive issue that would have far reaching consequences. There is no soundbite that sums it all up. That's why i'm in favour of a national debate covering all the issues. In that debate Sinn Fein would put their findings and proposals forward and people can make their own judgements on them, as they will for all the other parties and proposals.

I dont know what else you're expecting me to say. Like I said, there's no point in me putting my personal opinions forward because it's such a wide ranging issue that they would only represent a small percentage of concerns.

awec

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Crooked Jack

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Why should both governments have to put forward proposals when they're happy with the status quo? Surely it should be up to those who want a change in the status of Northern Ireland to make their case and start persuading people to change their minds.

Well if they're happy with the status quo then surely that would be their proposal. Leave as is. They could then back up that proposal with reasons as to why it's the best option, other parties could counter and they could counter the proposals of opposing groups.
I just think its important that any debate be all inclusive.

Crooked Jack

awec wrote: »

You should have been a politician, you're great at dodging questions.

I haven't dodged anything. You're asking for a one line summation of a massive issue so that you can move the argument away from the issue of unity as a whole onto something small that you can argue against. But it's not a single small issue. i dont have all the answers, I probably have very few of them. That's why I want all the information laid out before me. That's why I want SF, SDLP, DUP, UUP, Brit gov and the southern gov and probably a whole range of outside independent groups showing me how and why reunification would or wouldnt work, what the likely ramifications, benefits and dangers would be and then I can make a decision.
That's how everyone should make the decision. Information, debate, decide. Not a BBC poll ringing you up out of the blue.

Chips Lovell

You seem to have an unrealistic view of the obligation of all parties to engage themselves in a debate. These kinds of thing tend to happen when there is a notable change in public opinion on an issue. To date, we haven't really seen any evidence of that.

Perhaps it would be better to take a step back and ask yourself what would be grounds for holding a similar debate on an issue that you don't feel as invested in. For example, should the government have a national debate on scrapping the public healthcare system? Or privatising education? Joining Nato?

gurramok

awec wrote: »

Here are more figures for you, broken down per county. % of people who would vote to remain in the UK:

Belfast City: 60%
Greater Belfast: 77%
Down: 66%
Armagh: 64%
Tyrone + Fermanagh: 53%
Derry: 55%
Antrim: 84%

Taken from: http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/tv/spotlight/survey.pdf (on page 20).

So, there is a majority who want to remain as part of the UK in every single county.

How many of the 66% in Down are Unionists or Nationalists and where there background checks to show the questioned did not lie about their true intentions? Where those questioned in Down all from East Belfast or Newry?

Do you only read posts that only agree with your point of view?

Crooked Jack

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

You seem to have an unrealistic view of the obligation of all parties to engage themselves in a debate. These kinds of thing tend to happen when there is a notable change in public opinion on an issue. To date, we haven't really seen any evidence of that.

Perhaps it would be better to take a step back and ask yourself what would be grounds for holding a similar debate on an issue that you don't feel as invested in. For example, should the government have a national debate on scrapping the public healthcare system? Or privatising education? Joining Nato?

Yes. If a significant number of parties or elected representatives were in favour of those things and elected on the basis that they were in favour of those things then it would only be right that those issues were properly examined and debated.
I certainly wouldnt ask 1000 random people and then leave it at that.

Happyman42

awec wrote: »

What have they got to be afraid of?

This poll, and similar, all show an overwhelming support for continuation of the union.

What does SF do to sell a UI to those who are currently against it?

Why haven't they 'called the bluff' instead of lipservicing it? There has to be a reason for that.
The Unionists know that polls don't mean a damm, they are afraid of the debate, they are afraid of what the British might contribute to an honest debate about their part in NI's future.
It is Britians intentions that will severely alter the outlook of voters. Do they want to negotiate their future or be dragged kicking and screaming into a new arrangement which they can't control because of their beligerence. That's what has happened Unionism since the GFA. They are rudderless and effectively powerless. It will take some maturing by the footdraggers but I think they are now facing realities in many ways. Can only be a good thing.