N.I catholics gains massively on the protestant population

Chips Lovell

But you can vote for a party for any number of reasons, their opinion about the status of Northern Ireland only being one of them. As the poll shows, voting for a nationalist party doesn't automatically equate to wanting a merger.

mcc1

Happyman42 wrote: »

Why haven't they 'called the bluff' instead of lipservicing it? There has to be a reason for that.

Its called not wanting to waste millions of pounds in taxpayers money on a poll we already know will vote in favour of N.Ireland remaining part of the United Kingdom. I'd say that's a very good reason why a border poll shouldnt be called......

Sinn Fein are the ones calling for the border poll, how about asking them to put there proposals forward?? They have had countless times in the past month to put there reasoning for a united Ireland forward when asked and they havent been able to answer...... Says it all really.

gurramok

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

But you can vote for a party for any number of reasons, their opinion about the status of Northern Ireland only being one of them. As the poll shows, voting for a nationalist party doesn't automatically equate to wanting a merger.

Wrong. You can vote for a Unionist party(or Alliance) if you want to maintain the union. Both SF and SDLP want a UI, if one does not want a UI do not vote for them, simple.

maccored

yeah, sure who needs real nationwide polls. Sure wouldnt the view of 1000 anonymous people work just as fine ...

mcc1 wrote: »

Its called not wanting to waste millions of pounds in taxpayers money on a poll we already know will vote in favour of N.Ireland remaining part of the United Kingdom. I'd say that's a very good reason why a border poll shouldnt be called......

Sinn Fein are the ones calling for the border poll, how about asking them to put there proposals forward?? They have had countless times in the past month to put there reasoning for a united Ireland forward when asked and they havent been able to answer...... Says it all really.

Fr Tod Umptious

Next time we see SF up in polls in the ROI I want to see certain posters on here dismiss the results.

Chips Lovell

gurramok wrote: »

Wrong. You can vote for a Unionist party(or Alliance) if you want to maintain the union. Both SF and SDLP want a UI, if one does not want a UI do not vote for them, simple.

I suppose you need to start telling that to the non-single issue voters in the North.

bilston

You can all slate this poll all you like but has anyone EVER seen a poll that suggests a majority of people in NI, or even close to it would want a United Ireland?

As for the methodology gurramok Market Research companies don't just do these things on a whim and a stab in the dark.

mcc1

gurramok wrote: »

Wrong. You can vote for a Unionist party(or Alliance) if you want to maintain the union. Both SF and SDLP want a UI, if one does not want a UI do not vote for them, simple.

If you believe they will look after local needs better than another party , then you vote for them..... I certainly don't go to the polls voting for a party based on their views of a United Ireland..

Your telephone is ringing, its 2013 calling........ time to move on from the 1970's.

gurramok

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

I suppose you need to start telling that to the non-single issue voters in the North.

mcc1 wrote: »

If you believe they will look after local needs better than another party , then you vote for them..... I certainly don't go to the polls voting for a party based on their views of a United Ireland..

Your telephone is ringing, its 2013 calling........ time to move on from the 1970's.

No point telling me that, thats the mindset of both sides in NI. National identity issues trump local issues. The only switch you would see is jumping back and forth between Unionist parties and the same for voters between Nationalist parties, you hardly never see a jump to the other side(Nat->Uni and Uni->Nat)

Chips Lovell

Just noticed that the poll also answers another question that was the subject of some contention earlier on in the thread, when the census results were out, namely whether people identifying themselves as "Northern Irish" could be classed as in favour of a united Ireland or not:

The results of the 2011 census, released in December last year, revealed that just over a fifth of the population considers itself "Northern Irish".

That posed a political puzzle - in a border poll would these people tick a British or an Irish box? Well, those who identified themselves as "Northern Irish" for the BBC Spotlight poll back staying in the UK by a significant margin - 72% to just 7%.

Elmer Blooker

Fromthetrees wrote: »

Interesting alright,not surprising though.

It's mainly about money now anyway, join a German funded economic basketcase run by parish pump politicians vrs. London grants amounting to billions with the status quo.

It's a no brainer as things stand today. The Catholic middle class is increasing quite quickly all the while the Protestant underclass is growing so why would there be an appetite for change with this.

If southern Ireland funds Belfast to the same tune as London and it makes more sense to harmonise tax and all that jazz than there could be a United Ireland in 20 years time. Any border poll will be pointless before then.

Money will decide the future of the north.

nothing new there, the mugs in this country (excluding myself) knew FF were as corrupt as bejaysus but a few tax cuts before an election (ah shure ye'll be grand) works wonders. In the UK, Labour had to become "New" Labour which adopted Conservative policies to get into power.
Voting for the Shinners up north and wearing a Celtic jersey is all very well but it's whats in the phoca that counts.

mcc1

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Just noticed that the poll also answers another question that was the subject of some contention earlier on in the thread, when the census results were out, namely whether people identifying themselves as "Northern Irish" could be classed as in favour of a united Ireland or not:

Again its something most already knew. Republicans though wanted people to believe that because someone called themselves Northern Irish they were somehow in favour of a UI. Even remember some on here saying it was no different to calling someone western Irish, Eastern Irish lol........

As expected that has been proved wrong.

Happyman42

mcc1 wrote: »

Its called not wanting to waste millions of pounds in taxpayers money on a poll we already know will vote in favour of N.Ireland remaining part of the United Kingdom. I'd say that's a very good reason why a border poll shouldnt be called......

Ha ha ha, Unionists being circumspect with taxpayers money! Pull the other one, they'll bring NI to a standstill over a flag ffs. How long and how much money and oppurtunities did they waste objecting to progress over the years?

Sinn Fein are the ones calling for the border poll, how about asking them to put there proposals forward?? They have had countless times in the past month to put there reasoning for a united Ireland forward when asked and they havent been able to answer...... Says it all really.

Says what? It says we will give into the footdraggers again. A debate on these issues is healthy for all. I'm sure SF will be very vocal once hearts nd minds are there to be won.
Personally, I don't think there would be a win for the UI side at this time, but that doesn't make me afraid of the debate.

gurramok

mcc1 wrote: »

Again its something most already knew. Republicans though wanted people to believe that because someone called themselves Northern Irish they were somehow in favour of a UI. Even remember some on here saying it was no different to calling someone western Irish, Eastern Irish lol........

As expected that has been proved wrong.

No it hasn't. Ye are quoting the same poll with the same flaws of the nature of those questioned, that have been outlined.

awec

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mcc1

gurramok wrote: »

No it hasn't. Ye are quoting the same poll with the same flaws of the nature of those questioned, that have been outlined.

The same poll that says more or less the exact same as all recent polls which asked different people, and more or less falls in line with the census results....

By all means though keep denying it if you want......:D

Like I said by the time it sinks in that your wrong it will be far to late for you to do anything about persuading people to change their minds in your favour:cool:

awec

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gurramok

awec wrote: »

Again with this nonsense.

The only flaw in this poll is that it goes against what you believe to be true.

The numbers are there. The poll is thorough. It breaks the results down in a variety of ways.

The results are clear and conclusive.

I quote yourself who ignores points made and questions posed to you so I will not jump to the bait.

awec wrote:

You should have been a politician, you're great at dodging questions

awec

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Happyman42

awec wrote: »

You didn't answer my question. Not even close to doing so.

You've went off on some unrelated waffle. "Unionism", "dragged kicking and screaming", "rudderless", "powerless", "footdraggers".

The usual baseless rhetoric.

What realities are they facing? What are Sinn Fein going to do to get people to vote for a UI? How are they going to sell the notion? Try answering the questions this time.

It's not up to me to speak for SF, they are well able to do that and having been involved in the struggle for a wee while I think they'll have pleanty to say on the issue.

You think the poll doesn't mean a damn because it goes against what you believe to be true. You don't like it, because the figures are there that show there is a majority who want to remain as part of the union. You are even more annoyed because it has cross community support. You are trying to spin it into something that doesn't matter, purely because it doesn't suit your agenda.

I don't pay much attention to polls one way or another, and my point had nothing to do with the poll per se. (You can do a check of that in my 5000 odd posts on here, if you wish, none relate to opinion polls.) I think you are trying to read a bit much into my part of the debate.
My issue is using this as a way to deny a border poll. Part of the GFA was that this was to be tested at regular intervals.
Just another aspect of the agreement the Unionists want to welch on, like they tried to so on parity of esteem and the flag issue. It is because of their belligerent fears and they are running scared of this debate too.

Personally, living on the border, I can see major improvements for many depressed areas on both sides from a UI that would bring benefits for the entire country.
I think NI has failed as an entity and that is unhealthy for those that live there, particularily Unionists, the way they have lived since partition..isolationist..fearful...suspicious etc, .is not really a way to exist, it just hasn't worked. They know in their heart of hearts that things must change and they are changing, bit by little bit.
A major debate about what could be achieved by unifying the island and setting up a new republic, that we can all be proud of, would also be good. People might begin to see the huge possibilities rather than the disadvantages and be less fearful.
As I say, better to negotiate your future, than be dragged into something kicking and screaming, generations would needlessly suffer because of it, ask any Northern Nationalist.
That's just some of the things I think, as I say, you'll have to ask SF about what they see. By the same token, Unionists aren't very forthcoming about the future they see either.

Chips Lovell

Incidentally, the poll is largely in line with what other polls in 2008 and 2011 found.

awec

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maccored

anytime SF is up in the polls the first thing thats mentioned is that its only a poll.

Keep up the good work though - SF are getting great advertising out of all these anti SF threads.

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Next time we see SF up in polls in the ROI I want to see certain posters on here dismiss the results.

Happyman42

awec wrote: »

What?! :pac:

How? What improvements do you see?

Are you saying you think people in NI would be better off if in the economy of the ROI than in the economy of the UK? Is that what you are saying?

As someone who has lived on both sides of the border, you are in cuckoo land if you believe that to be the case.

Your patronising rubbish at unionists is even more ridiculous.

Do your research on what business people say about the border, do your research on what people living in the region say about the border.
Yes the economic situation is not good atm, but the reality is, Britian is in similar straits and that is driving their thinking about the 'Union'.
Personally I think a UI would be a much stronger entity, going forward. We have a lot to offer each other in purely ecomomic terms if not culturally.

Patronising? Are you saying that life since partition for Unionists has been similar to somebody living in Surrey or Cork? It is a pitiful state of exisitence, and I think it has been the same for Nationalists. Normalisation will only make them all more aware of this.
NI has failed, it failed it's people and it has failed economically. Life support will not be continued, that is the reality facing the people. People can call themselves Northern Irish, or British to stall any serious thinking on the impending issues but it is only that...a stopgap, sooner or later they will have to face the facts.

Iwasfrozen

maccored wrote: »

anytime SF is up in the polls the first thing thats mentioned is that its only a poll.

Keep up the good work though - SF are getting great advertising out of all these anti SF threads.

Good. The more people know about Sinn Fein the better.

awec

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Happyman42

awec wrote: »

It really isn't... :pac:

Not even close.

When are you going to face the fact that NI hasn't failed and the majority want it to continue to exist?

Can you tell me how NI has failed it's people and it has failed economically please? Sounds very emotional and what not, but I suspect it's just more baseless nonsense.

When you have a society that goes into turmoil because of a simple vote to normalise a situation then I think you can say that something is 'wrong' with that society, that something has failed.
NI cannot run itself, it requires the constant intervention of the British Government, the Irish Government and sometimes the American government, that is not normal, that is a failure.
We have seen the deep turmoil in the south that the presence of the Troika has caused, Northern politicians are just so used to outside assistance, interference and monitoring, that they can't see it anymore. It's another reason why an independent Northern Ireland state would implode very quickly, it has failed as a place where proper democracy can work.

View

awec wrote: »

Can you tell me how NI has failed it's people and it has failed economically please? Sounds very emotional and what not, but I suspect it's just more baseless nonsense.

According to the UK CEBR, NI government related spending exceeds NI government related income (tax) by just shy of 40%. That is a massive and extraordinary level of subsidy.

Even it their worst years of "bailing out the banks" and/or (massive) government overspending, neither the RoI nor Portugal nor even Greece itself have such massive deficits to concern them.

Chuck Stone

So if the poll is in any way representative of public opinion PUL folks kinda depend on the contentment of CNR folks to keep the Stirling £lowing secure the union?

How mad is that?

Iwasfrozen

Chuck Stone wrote: »

So if the poll is in any way representative of public opinion PUL folks kinda depend on the contentment of CNR folks to keep the Stirling £lowing secure the union?

How mad is that?

Nah that's the old NI, the new NI will be defined by the CUL.

awec

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awec

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ardmacha

So again, how exactly has NI failed it's people and economically?

NI has clearly failed its people as remains divided and sectarian.

And once you answer that, can you tell me why you feel that the people of NI would fare better economically in the ROI?

I don;t think there is a proposal to move the people of NI to a ROI, instead a United Ireland is proposed.
In steady state conditions there is no reason to suppose that people in NI would be any worse or better off than people in other parts of the country in such a scenario. The problem is how to get there, given that NI is an economic basket case.

awec

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ardmacha

The place is neither divided nor sectarian, the majority have moved on. Those who see themselves as divided are those who want to be seen as divided, because the idea of a normal NI doesn't suit the old agenda.

NI was setup to advance sectarianism, if it still exists then it is sectarian. A large number of people still vote for parties trying to keep a 17th century ethnic colonisation project going. It is hardly a normal place.

In steady state conditions? Are you saying that in the event of a UI that Ireland's current economic crisis would cease to exist? The foreign debt of over 300,000 euro per person disappears?

Foreign debt of over €300k per person? Sources for this please.
How much is NIs debt per person exactly (calculated in similar way)?

My point is simple, in overall terms people in the present ROI are as well or better off than people in NI. Particular short term issues about this and that are not really the point here, this is a long term issue.

awec

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ardmacha

I have lived in the ROI.

I have lived in NI.

Me too.

If you believe that people here are better off than people there, you are very, very mistaken. In fact, that statement could probably not be more wrong. Financially and socially people are better off in NI. Lower taxes, lower costs, free healthcare, stronger economy, higher standard of living in general.

So I am "very, very mistaken", "could not be more wrong" and post "total crap". Such certainty! I actually think people have broadly similar conditions in both jurisdictions. Lower taxes is swings and roundabouts, income taxes are higher on lower incomes, people have rates at twice the level of the proposed property tax in the Republic. Lower costs are good, but NI wages are lower also.

When mapped, the predominance of affluence is in the 26 counties

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696
As of June 11, Ireland's foreign debt was 1.7 trillion euro, equivalent to over 390,000 euro per head in Ireland. Over 3 times the level of the UK.

This is a misquote. This is gross debt and will always be higher for small states. You carefully ignored that while Ireland owes the UK €104.5bn, the UK owes Ireland €113.5bn. There are debt problems to be sure, but posting misleading data does not help.

Chuck Stone

Chuck Stone wrote: »

PUL folks kinda depend on the contentment of CNR folks to ... secure the union

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

that's the old NI

What I've written is the polar opposite to the old NI. PUL contentment was predicated on CNR disenfranchisement in the bad old days. Remember the brutal state backed suppression of civil rights (not UI) activism? Of course you do.

he new NI will be defined by the CUL

What?

Chips Lovell

Happyman42 wrote: »

When you have a society that goes into turmoil because of a simple vote to normalise a situation then I think you can say that something is 'wrong' with that society, that something has failed.
NI cannot run itself, it requires the constant intervention of the British Government, the Irish Government and sometimes the American government, that is not normal, that is a failure.

And rule by the Irish government will magically get rid of this need for constant intervention?

woodoo

I am someone that would like to see a United Ireland some day but if i was asked to vote tomorrow i'd say no ask again in 20 years. This country is in a mess and the north is a black hole regarding money and the people are as far apart as ever socially. It would be madness right now. Sinn Fein are dumb to be pushing the debate now, they have ended up with egg on their face with this poll.

COYW

woodoo wrote: »

I am someone that would like to see a United Ireland some day but if i was asked to vote tomorrow i'd say no ask again in 20 years. This country is in a mess and the north is a black hole regarding money and the people are as far apart as ever socially. It would be madness right now. Sinn Fein are dumb to be pushing the debate now, they have ended up with egg on their face with this poll.

Whilst you might like to see a UI some day, do you accept that the people of NI do not? Do you agree that they should have the final word on it?

I'd image the poll results were some shock to SF. They expected a large proportion of unionists to be against such a move but I was shocked (delighted) by the volume of SF voters who were against it. SF are in a very tricky position on this one now, do they keep pushing it and risk alienating some of their support or do they drop it and accept failure in relation to a UI.

One thing that did surprise me was the number of people who categorised themselves as Northern Irish, i.e. not British or Irish. I have said it before and I'll say it again, I believe this is probably the end game for NI. For the foreseeable future, they will remain part of the UK but then I see can see them breaking away on their own. If there was a referendum in the mainland UK tomorrow in relation to NI, NI would be voted out.

Happyman42

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

And rule by the Irish government will magically get rid of this need for constant intervention?

As is typical, you seem to be under the impression that a UI means that the border is scratched out, the Brits go home and things continue, with the Irish government with a bigger terrority to govern.

It will be a new government where Unionists(ex) will have representation.

awec

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awec

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COYW

awec wrote: »

You should have seen Gerry Kelly's reaction to the news. :pac:

The idea that a quarter of his voters wouldn't vote for a UI knocked him for six.

I saw Spotlight last night and he tried to play the card that he didn't accept the results. As one texter said, if it was the other way around, he would have accepted them. The results were jaw dropping alright. Arlene Foster was surprised by them also; you could see it in her body language. I got the impression that she never realised that the Nationalist people felt that way about the union.

woodoo

COYW wrote: »

I saw Spotlight last night and he tried to play the card that he didn't accept the results. As one texter said, if it was the other way around, he would have accepted them. The results were jaw dropping alright. Arlene Foster was surprised by them also; you could see it in her body language. I got the impression that she never realised that the Nationalist people felt that way about the union.

They can't be called nationalist then. We will need some new name.

Happyman42

woodoo wrote: »

They can't be called nationalist then. We will need some new name.

'Business people' would cover it I'd say. They will flit around in the prevailing economic wind. They were the ones looking hungryily at the Republic in the boom along with a fair share of Unionists.

oscarBravo

Happyman42 wrote: »

As is typical, you seem to be under the impression that a UI means that the border is scratched out, the Brits go home and things continue, with the Irish government with a bigger terrority to govern.

It will be a new government where Unionists(ex) will have representation.

So not only are you demanding that my country assimilate a basket case economy populated by people who refuse point-blank to get on with each other, but my country also has to change its political system to accommodate those people and their mutual paranoia?

As if I needed yet another reason to vote against a united Ireland, but there it is.

Ozymandius2011

County by county breakdown of Spotlight poll:

% of people who would vote to remain in the UK:

Belfast City: 60%
Greater Belfast: 77%
Down: 66%
Armagh: 64%
Tyrone + Fermanagh: 53%
Derry: 55%
Antrim: 84%

Taken from: (on page 20).

The mess we have made of our economy, the Catholic abuse scandals, soft judges etc. hasn't exactly helped matters I suspect where the Catholic vote is concerned. I don't see a UI in my lifetime (I am 33). I would vote for it though. I am a Southerner.

Chips Lovell

Considering previous polls giving similar numbers I'm not sure why this should be such a massive shock.