2012/13 Premier League relegation thread

mike65

So then 16 games gone, we've seen movement recently with Soton finding some form jumping from bottom to 15th while QPR and Reading look fairly doomed, and yet Wigan were a popular choice to drop last season - will they finally run out of late season miracles this time?

One assumes Redknapp will make a few agents happy next month but there may not be much scope unless he can shift a few as well. Reading will not be spending its fair to say. Sunderland have won well tonight which lifts immediate pressure but it was at home to Reading who are shipping goals. Villa look fragile as a young squad plays in new way under Paul Lambert.

Might anyone else slip into contention, its a very tight league should a current mid table side hit a bad spell they too could get dragged into a fight they can't escape from.

Paully D

Other

Bookmakers odds are always a good indication here. They have:

20) Reading 1/4 to go down
19) QPR 8/13 to go down
18) Southampton 6/5 to go down

17) Wigan 2/1 to go down
16) Villa 10/3 to go down
15) Sunderland 4/1 to go down

Reading are gone IMO. Their players didn't play for each other at all tonight and they have a few really difficult games coming up over the next few weeks too. I wonder if something is up behind the scenes there, strange demeanor about them tonight if I'm honest. Hard to see them turning it around.

QPR are a tough one, maybe they've already given themselves too much to do. I think they'll sign a Darren Bent in January who'll score 8-10 and a couple of defenders to shore things up. Their midfield isn't bad really and they're unbeaten since 'Arry took over. If they still had Hughes though I'd say they were gone.

Southampton have been on a nice run but they concede goals by the bucketload and rarely get anything away from home. It's also worth pointing out that their good run has coincided with some very favourable home fixtures. A decent club though who I'd like to see stay up.

With our upcoming fixture list we'll be down around there for the foreseeable future but hopefully that win tonight will give us a bit of confidence to pick up a point here and there in December and January and O'Neill will bring in a central midfielder in January before we push on away from things from February.

Before I looked at the table I thought Wigan would be a lot safer than they currently are. Very surprised to see them in the dropzone now as I'd be reading favourable things about them over the last few weeks without really paying much attention. Meh, Martinez will pull off his usual escape act.

Other teams down there such as Newcastle will be fine.

If I had to pick now I'd have to go for what the bookies are suggesting:

20) Reading
19) QPR
18) Southampton

But Sunderland, Villa and Wigan will be scrapping it out down there too although I'd imagine Sunderland (hopefully) and Villa will finish without any fears during the last few weeks and Wigan will just sneak away.

cgpg5

Other

Reading, QPR and Soton. Soton are the only ones who have any chance of surviving imo. They're away form will ultimately cost them. QPR already have way too much to do and have tough games to come over the Christmas. Themselves and Reading could well be gone by April

Norwich have found their form and Wigan always come good around March/April.

Villa will scrape out wins when they need to. Sunderland should be fine. It probably won't even take that big an effort to stay up. QPR and Reading are just woeful and Soton have benefitted from a nice easy run

For the first time in a few years I think it'll be a boring enough relegation battle. 2 years ago was just epic

Morzadec

Other

I would go with the same 3 - Reading, Qpr, Southampton.

If you look at recent seasons it's generally the teams that ship a lot of goals that go down. That might seem obvious - but what I mean to say is that it seems you are generally better off having a poor attack and being solid in defence than being the other way round.

The Premier League is unforgiving to soft defences and you won't give yourself a chance in games if you concede a lot. For me Stoke really are the blueprint for a team coming up from the Championship - you need to completely readjust your gameplan as you go from being one of the best in your league to one of the worst. If I was managing a newly promoted side I'd invest heavily in the defence and perhaps goalkeeping position and make the side a tough side to beat that nobody enjoys playing.

Southampton have shored up a bit in recent weeks, but I still believe they have one of the weakest defences out there and have still conceded the most goals in the Premier League, so that's why I tip them to go down.

Reading are too far behind, lack the quality, and like Southampton seem to be weak at the back. It's going to be very, very difficult for them.

QPR I wouldn't completely rule out. You never know with Redknapp at the helm. They have some experienced players and perhaps a better defence than some of the other relegation candidates. If Harry can get the defence tighter and start keeping some clean sheets they might give themselves a chance. They have the potential advantage of making a big impact in the January transfer window also. However, they are already at a not inconsiderable points disadvantage so it might be a tough ask.

Reading are the only near-certs for me.

cgpg5

Other

Morzadec wrote: »

I would go with the same 3 - Reading, Qpr, Southampton.

If you look at recent seasons it's generally the teams that ship a lot of goals that go down. That might seem obvious - but what I mean to say is that it seems you are generally better off having a poor attack and being solid in defence than being the other way round.

The Premier League is unforgiving to soft defences and you won't give yourself a chance in games if you concede a lot. For me Stoke really are the blueprint for a team coming up from the Championship - you need to completely readjust your gameplan as you go from being one of the best in your league to one of the worst. If I was managing a newly promoted side I'd invest heavily in the defence and perhaps goalkeeping position and make the side a tough side to beat that nobody enjoys playing.

Southampton have shored up a bit in recent weeks, but I still believe they have one of the weakest defences out there and have still conceded the most goals in the Premier League, so that's why I tip them to go down.

Reading are too far behind, lack the quality, and like Southampton seem to be weak at the back. It's going to be very, very difficult for them.

QPR I wouldn't completely rule out. You never know with Redknapp at the helm. They have some experienced players and perhaps a better defence than some of the other relegation candidates. If Harry can get the defence tighter and start keeping some clean sheets they might give themselves a chance. They have the potential advantage of making a big impact in the January transfer window also. However, they are already at a not inconsiderable points disadvantage so it might be a tough ask.

Reading are the only near-certs for me.

The thing with QPR is the three games they've had under Harry were three winnable games. Villa at home, Sland away and Wigan away. All in or around the bottom. They've had Soton and Reading at home too recently. I saw them against Wigan and they were played off the park and blessed to get a draw.

They need to win these games if they've any chance. With 22 games left they need about 30 points to have a chance of staying up. That is some ask. With such easy games already out of the way I think it has come to the stage where it'll be miraculous if they come close. And they promised so much this year

Frankly it would take a very brave man to bet against Reading and QPR. But as Paully said Soton's position is deceiving- in recent weeks they've had Reading, Newcastle and QPR all fellow strugglers. They just concede far too many. I'd be amazed if these three didn't go down

Morzadec

Other

cgpg5 wrote: »

The thing with QPR is the three games they've had under Harry were three winnable games. Villa at home, Sland away and Wigan away. All in or around the bottom. They've had Soton and Reading at home too recently. I saw them against Wigan and they were played off the park and blessed to get a draw.

They need to win these games if they've any chance. With 22 games left they need about 30 points to have a chance of staying up. That is some ask. With such easy games already out of the way I think it has come to the stage where it'll be miraculous if they come close. And they promised so much this year

Frankly it would take a very brave man to bet against Reading, QPR and Soton. As Paully said Soton's position is deceiving- in recent weeks they've had Reading, Newcastle and QPR all fellow strugglers. They just concede far too many. I'd be amazed if these three didn't go down

Well you're getting better than Evs on just Southampton going down. Add Reading and QPR to the mix and you could be looking at about 2/1 or more. Could be worth a bet...

cgpg5

Other

Morzadec wrote: »

Well you're getting better than Evs on just Southampton going down. Add Reading and QPR to the mix and you could be looking at about 2/1 or more. Could be worth a bet...

Indeed. Bookies odds on these things change like no tomorrow though. If Soton go and and lose a game or two now they'll be back down to odds on. Timing the bet is crucial!

I guarantee you by New Years Day So'ton will be back at odds on. Their recent run of late couldn't have been nicer.

So now is probably the time to bet so

EDIT- Meant to say take a very brave man to bet against Reading and QPR. I think Soton will go but I wouldn't say it'd be overly brave to back against them going down :P Bloody asleep!

cgpg5

Other

Surprised people think Sunderland will go. They're playing about as bad as they can and are still clear of the relegation zone (though not by much!). They can only improve and they have the quality to dig out results if needs be in or around April though I personally feel they'll be sound by then anyway

eugeneious

Off topic a little, but it really shows you what a great job Hughton has done at Norwich that they are no longer considered major candidates for the drop. Looked certain to go down after the first 6 or 7 games but he really has done brilliantly since.

Xavi6

Southampton

QPR and Reading should be certs. Even with the 'Arry Factor, QPR are terrible and Wigan should have won by three or four on Saturday (great game btw, glad I watched it!). They have very little up front, Jamie Mackie started there on his own at the weekend, so that's their biggest problem. Maybe Cisse will get a run in the team but even then he's hardly prolific.

As for the other spot, it'll probably be Southampton but I voted for Villa just because it'd be a huge story if such a big team went down.

Rekop dog

Other

eugeneious wrote: »

Off topic a little, but it really shows you what a great job Hughton has done at Norwich that they are no longer considered major candidates for the drop. Looked certain to go down after the first 6 or 7 games but he really has done brilliantly since.

They were never really looking likely to go down last year, currently in the same position as they finished last season, he's done well but wouldn't say great yet. People always get carried away by relatively short term streaks of form, I'd be surprised if they finished better than their current position, obv no disgrace there but still of the opinion that they lost a better manager than the one they gained.

Rekop dog

Other

I wouldn't be shocked if West Brom got dragged into it, I've seen more dramatic collapses.

Morzadec

Other

Rekop dog wrote: »

I wouldn't be shocked if West Brom got dragged into it, I've seen more dramatic collapses.

I imagine Brom will be okay, but I agree in general with what you're saying - a lot of teams who are doing well at the moment will still be feeling like they haven't quite done enough yet. We all saw what happened with Hull. They had 28 at Christmas if I remember correctly. It's not absurd to suggest WBA could be going into Christmas with 2 points less. There's one or two others who won't be feeling safe yet. We could see another team or two dragged into it.

Personally I wouldn't rule Norwich out. They were one of picks before the season and they've surprised me of late, but as I said these things can turn quickly.

GavRedKing

Aston Villa

In particular order, QPR, Wigan, Reading.

cgpg5

Other

Yeah but think about it, another 4 wins for Norwich and they're most likely safe. That puts them on 34 points. They'll get draws too so I'd be amazed if they got dragged into it

I generally wouldn't rule out a team getting dragged into it but the bottom 3 are so bad I just can't see it happening. We could have a very low cut off this year

Even some survivors points total this year, wouldn't have been enough previously

Sunderland, Reading and QPR

BetterCallSaul

Other

Reading and QPR are nailed on for me. I'd be amazed if either survive.

A lot of teams down there could easily get stuck in a rut and make up that 3rd spot. Most likely being Southampton, but I wouldn't like to call it this early.

eagle eye

Southampton

Reading and Aston Villa for me look likely to go. Very hard to pick the third one, QPR with their current points total don't look good but I'd expect a huge improvement in them under Redknapp and they have the quality to get out of it. I think I'd go for Southampton or Wigan to join the first two.

DoctorGonzo08

Other

Interesting stat was that with the exception of West Brom in 2004, every team that has been bottom of the EPL at Christmas has been relegated. Not looking good for QPR so. I think Southampton and Reading just aren't hitting any stride in the premiership to warrant them to avoid the drop.

JPA

eagle eye wrote: »

Reading and Aston Villa for me look likely to go. Very hard to pick the third one, QPR with their current points total don't look good but I'd expect a huge improvement in them under Redknapp and they have the quality to get out of it. I think I'd go for Southampton or Wigan to join the first two.

No chance of Villa going down.

Columbia

Other

Southampton, Reading and QPR for me.

Reading and QPR are practically a given, only to say that I don't think either of them will "turn it around". QPR will probably sign a few players again, and they'll be just as bad as the other couple of dozen signings they made since promotion.

Then it's one of Southampton, Sunderland, Wigan and Villa. I reckon Premier League experience will save the three regulars, which leaves Southampton. I think the Saints will get worse as the season progresses, and we'll probably know the three relegated sides with a couple of fixtures to spare.

death1234567

Aston Villa

JPA wrote: »

No chance of Villa going down.

Yes there is a chance. 3 difficult fixtures coming up could see them in the bottom 3 over Xmas and if they don't spend some money in January then they'll be there or there abouts with 5 games to go in the season. I don't think Villa will go down but they won't be comfortable either.

JPA

death1234567 wrote: »

Yes there is a chance. 3 difficult fixtures coming up could see them in the bottom 3 over Xmas and if they don't spend some money in January then they'll be there or there abouts with 5 games to go in the season. I don't think Villa will go down but they won't be comfortable either.

IMO Villa won't be near the relegation zone come the end of the season.

The_Kew_Tour

Other

Have sneaky feeling Sunderland will go down with QPR and Reading

mike65

Bump!

Sunderland have hit some form, Villa are in free fall, Newcastle can't buy a win. Any thoughts on the three two to drop?

keith16

Other

Losing at home to Southampton is a massive blow for Villa, they are in serious trouble unless they can recapture some of their mid-season form.

RayCon

Southampton

QPR, Reading , Villa

eugeneious

Still reckon QPR and Reading are nailed on. Newcastle is a difficult one as they have a pretty decent squad but there does seem to be a few issues in the dressing room and they really are in complete free-fall. If I was to put money on it though I would still think Southampton will fall back in and go down.

Villa in freefall

The_Kew_Tour

Other

Since Liverpool result Villa have been dire. You think that result would of helped them.

GavRedKing

Aston Villa

Have to admit Villa could easily go down this season.

If they continue the way they're going they'll be in the relegation battle right down to the last few weeks of the seasons.

Melion

I think Bent will come back to save Villa but Qpr are gone. I'll go for Wigan and Reading

Scorpion Sting

Southampton

I think Reading are doomed despite their win today. Aston Villa with such a young squad are finding it very tough and I can't see them staying up unless they get their key players back and in form and they could also do with some new faces. I think Redknapp's QPR will do just enough to avoid the drop after a terrible start under Hughes. Adkins will strengthen his squad this month and I think Southampton will be safe come the end of the season. Newcastle and Sunderland should be fine. I feel this year is the year Wigan will finally crack and get relegated.

The 3 teams to go down: Reading, Villa and Wigan.

Morzadec

Other

Southampton continuing to confound those who doomed them to relegation.

QPR sign a (supposedly) handy striker, with perhaps a very good midfielder on the way too.

Reading only 3 points off the drop after turning it around incredibly on the weekend.

This is not nearly as cut and dried as some predicted. Looks like we could be in for another epic relegation battle. Have to say the lower end of the table rarely fails to deliver in the Premiership!

I for one have taken a liking to Southampton and hope they continue their form and stay up/

That_Guy

Newcastle play Reading and Villa in our next two games..... Two games that will tell a lot about our character (if any)

Morzadec

Other

That_Guy wrote: »

Newcastle play Reading and Villa in our next two games..... Two games that will tell a lot about our character (if any)

Have Newcastle replaced Ba/ Will they? If not I'd worry for them.

I have generally assumed they will be fine as I feel they are comfortably better than the teams down there, but Ba has contributed 50% of there goals this season.

I assume when the long injury list shortens results will turn around, but Cisse will need to step up or a replacement will be needed or things could get tricky.

It wouldn't be the first time a team that has the quality to finish comfortably clear of the relegation zone has gone down.

That_Guy

Morzadec wrote: »

Have Newcastle replaced Ba/ Will they? If not I'd worry for them.

I have generally assumed they will be fine as I feel they are comfortably better than the teams down there, but Ba has contributed 50% of there goals this season.

I assume when the long injury list shortens results will turn around, but Cisse will need to step up or a replacement will be needed or things could get tricky.

It wouldn't be the first time a team that has the quality to finish comfortably clear of the relegation zone has gone down.

We tried to replace him with Remy but QPR snatched him from us at the last minute. As for other targets... I have no idea. Injuries aren't helping us and Cisse has been utter crap. Shola is getting on a bit and is hardly prolific. It's a pity Vuckic is injured for the season because I'd have no doubt that he'd be seriously pushing for regular starts.

Reserve/youth squad is virtually untested at the highest level though I've heard good things about a young striker named Adam Campbell but it's far too soon to be calling him up methinks especially when he'll be put under immense pressure to bag goals.

I'm preparing myself for yet another "We couldn't get the deal over the line" type statement come the 1st of February.

We need a centre half, a striker and another winger methinks. Williamson is just regressing every week, Marveaux/Obertan don't inspire confidence (particularly the latter) and Cisse is firing blanks on his own.

DoctorGonzo08

Other

GavRedKing wrote: »

Have to admit Villa could easily go down this season.

If they continue the way they're going they'll be in the relegation battle right down to the last few weeks of the seasons.

Was at the Southampton game at the weekend, and I have to admit that Villa are very likely to go down unfortunatley. Although before going to the game I thought Villa wouldn't be contenders for relegation, after watching them, I can't see anyone who is going to lift them.

They have a non existant CM and a far too inexperienced Backline. With the exception of Bentheke, Weinmann & Clarke, none of the starting 11 are good enough. Interesting on the programme I noticed there are only 2 starters (If you include N'Zogbia) in the first 1 - 12 squad numbers.

mike65

Norwich and Fulham loose away, Soton bin manager but don't play till Monday against Everton which is a tough enough game, Newcastle bomb at home to Reading (who have won three of their last 4 games) which a worrying sign for the toon army, Wigwam lose again at home. Given their recent great escape acts its hard to know they they are just playing possum or not!

The_Kew_Tour

Other

If Villa win QPR will be further from safety then they were 10 games ago when Harry took over

Gbear

Aston Villa

I really thought that Wigan would do the business but they're just getting **** results. They seem to be playing fairly well and nearly getting back into games but they've lost 7, drawn 2 and won only 1 of their last 10 games.

Dietsquirt

Other

I'm a QPR fan so i didn't pick them
But i reckon Reading are 100% going down and this honestly might be Wigan's year, after surviving so many close calls.

Chucky the tree

I think Norwich could be in trouble. 1 point from their last 18 and the next five games are Spurs, @QPR, Fulham, Everton, @United. QPR and Fulham games will be huge for them.

mike65

Update

Villa loose again, Newcastle with new firepower will probably pull clear of danger, Soton lost though played pretty well I understand.

Readings excellent run, inspired almost single-handedly by Le Fondre continues with a valuable point, while all the others in danger also drew so no real change.

Two six-pointers on Saturday

Queens Park Ra… 12 : 45 Norwich City
Wigan Athletic 15 : 00 Southampton

Morzadec

Other

mike65 wrote: »

Update

Villa loose again, Newcastle with new firepower will probably pull clear of danger, Soton lost though played pretty well I understand.

Readings excellent run, inspired almost single-handedly by Le Fondre continues with a valuable point, while all the others in danger also drew so no real change.

Two six-pointers on Saturday

Queens Park Ra… 12 : 45 Norwich City
Wigan Athletic 15 : 00 Southampton

Newcastle far too good to go down surely, even without the new signings. I don't see them as candidates.

I made a bold prediction when Norwich were well clear that they could be a candidate and I wouldn't rule them out being dragged in despite a decent result tonight. It's been a long time since they've had a win.

Reading are the form team and are looking like they could drag themselves out.

Southampton seem to be playing well and look like they have the quality to stay up.

Villa are in freefall.

Wigan aren't getting much coverage but aren't looking good. Will they muster another end of season effort to pull themselves out?

QPR with a good result yesterday and still strengthening their squad, but still quite a bit clear at the bottom.

It's really so hard to call and I think we'll see another very entertaining battle. If I had to call it now I'd go with the current 3 in the zone, but really hard to call

The_Kew_Tour

Other

I have changed my mind on Reading. Think they will stay up. They have got few results for losing positions. Even during bad run of form earlier they were playing better then form suggested. Now they have more belief and even though they be thereabouts for drop I think they will just hang on to Premiership survival.

mike65

35 points and a least worst g/d could well be the cut off point this year.

JamJamJamJam

Southampton

If Reading can maintain their form they'll stay up. At the moment, they're doing well, but they're farrr from having any breathing space. I'm not sure that comebacks are a sustainable tactic...

mike65

Another Reading win sees them out of the drop zone for first time in months maybe ever, Wigan, Villa and QPR all drew, of them Harrys side are in the best shape and with the January transfers would one bet against them quietly moving out of danger?

Of course they need another side to fall away but who? Soton are still doing okay and the new guy seems to be capable so far, Newkie are going to be fine, Norwich are looking a bit dodgy and need Bechhio to start scoring pronto.

mike65

Its that time again
Villa drop into the zone for the first time
Wigan win and rise from same for first time since league settled down
Newcastle win
Soton lose
QPR lose
Reading lose
West Ham lose (are they the dark horse?)
Sunderland lose

13 West Ham United----30
14 Newcastle

---

30
15 Sunderland

---

29
16 Southampton

---

27
17 Wigan Athletic

---

-24
18 Aston Villa

---

24
19 Reading

---

23
20 Queens Park Rangers--17

You'd have to reckon QPR are now as good as gone. Billions spent and almost no form improvement. They play Soton next away then Sunderland at home. Sunderland play Fulham should be a home banker but if they trip up....Villa home to City. Wigan home to Liverpool.

klose

Wigans 4th year on the trot being down there, must be pretty stressful supporting them!