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MMA-d gambling log!

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  • 27-12-2012 11:53am
    #1
    Scar Tissue
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,391 ✭✭✭


    Hey all, used to have another log on here but got bored of it. Want to give it another shot without resurrecting the old one!

    While I will use an imaginary bank, starting with 100 pts, I will place the odd bet myself in the bookies where funds allow. Will stick to singles and doubles, don't like dabbling in anything too extreme past that, especially in MMA.

    First event in the log will be UFC 155: Dos Santos vs. Velasquez.

    Good luck to anyone that follows!

    :)


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    #2
    Scar Tissue
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,391 ✭✭✭Scar Tissue


    As is customary for the UFC at this stage, the end of year event features a stacked card with a good few interesting bouts and we're given another HW title fight to see us into 2013 featuring Cigano and Cain:
    JDS-vs.-Velasquez-2.jpg

    _____


    Pick #1:
    Bet:     Junior Dos Santos to win via Knockout/Submission.
    Odds: 8/11 (PP).
    Stake:     15 points.
    Confidence: 8/10.

    A classic "striker vs. grappler" match up this fight will most likely see JDS utilising his excellent stand up and boxing skills to pick apart Velasquez from range with ferocious uppercuts, overhand rights and left hooks. Cain, should he last more than the 64 seconds before being knocked out in his last fight against Junior, will be hoping to start with leg kicks leading into taken downs from which he can employ his feared ground and pound.

    While JDS looked very impressive against Frank Mir over the summer, it was hard not to be blown away by Cain's utter dominance and annihilation of Bigfoot Silva (Pic). Cain has an impressive 2.7 takedown attempts per round with a 67% success rate in these attempts, but it's important to keep in mind that JDS has an 88% success rate in defending takedowns (Stats). It's very tough to call a winner but as long as this fight stays on its feet, it's hard to go against JDS and his boxing skills.

    Odds of a submission/knockout are the same as a knockout alone for Junior, 99% sure the fight won't go to the whole 5 rounds to a judges decision.


    Pick #2:
    Bet: Joe Lauzon to win.
    Odds: 13/8.
    Stake: 5 points.
    Confidence: 5.5/10.

    This may be the bias talking, but I think J-Lau stands with more of a chance than his 13/8 win odds suggest. Both Lauzon and Miller have impressive records with (Link) a history of 22-7 and 21-4 respectively, putting them towards the upper levels of the LW division.

    Both submission experts will be hoping to bring the fight to the ground and fight where they're most comfortable and where their advantages lie, Lauzon moreso than Millers. Joe's 82% submission win record exceeds that of Miller's 57% and should he be given the chance he was an impressive arsenal of subs to use.

    Expect a back and forth chess match on the ground between these two. Unfortunately odds on a Lauzon submission win aren't available but if they were, I'd be grabbing that for this match.


    _____



    Best of luck to anyone that may follow these tips, bring on Saturday's event!

    \o/


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