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January 2013 Boards forecast contest

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    #62
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Athenry already at -4C on the 11pm report so should be a new low for the month by morning


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    #63
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,672 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Gurteen -5.9 at 6 a.m this morning, still showing -6 on the 8 a.m reports whatever it's rounded from!


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    #64
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,672 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Looks like Gurteen got to -6.3c


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    #65
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Also coldest of the winter season, I believe. Will it be broken overnight perhaps, there were some -5 hourlies earlier when I looked in before midnight but all seem to be on the upward drift now. I have a hunch we'll get a -8 to -10 in February if the Siberian comes in (over the north pole perhaps).


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    #66
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Estimates based on actuals to 23rd and factoring in 24th and likely outcome for today ...

    IMT will be close to 4.7 C

    PRC will be close to 85%

    SUN will be close to 88% (very cloudy last week)

    February contest will be posted tomorrow or Saturday, look for it ... Sponge Bob has assisted with the table off-forum (thanks) and I'm still wondering who submitted "I love it when ..." but if that turns out to be a really good forecast and somebody wants to claim it, that window has closed, sorry.

    Implied rule is valid boards.ie membership required with entry. Otherwise we could have people posting multiple possible outcomes then claiming the best one later.


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    #67
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,672 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    A late assault on the max of 13.2 possible today? Valentia showing a rounded value of 13c in the 10 a.m reports.


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    #68
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,672 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    We have at least 13.6 in Gurteen

    Dublin airport and Phoenix park also showing rounded readings of 14c

    New high for the month anyway!


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    #69
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    IMT was on 5.0 C after 28 days and is now on 5.1 closing on 5.2 which I predict will be the final value give or take 0.1 ...

    PRC is closing on above normal now with almost every one of the eleven stations pulling level with monthly values after yesterday, not counting today or further rain tomorrow night in particular, would guess this could settle at 110% given the amounts likely to fall.

    SUN did all its work in the first half (tempted to say Atlanta Falcons for some reason, probably a better example more widely known) and has been benched since half time. Therefore a low outcome can be expected, maybe 60% unless there is a 31st miracle.

    In case you didn't catch it, the February contest is open for business and I will be updating both this thread and the winter forecast thread for scores soon after the end of the month.


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    #70
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,672 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Gurteen got to 14.0, Dublin Airport/Shannon airport got 13.8. We'll see what Phoenix park maxed at tomorrow.


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    #71
    omicron
    Registered Users Posts: 835 ✭✭✭omicron


    Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »
    Gurteen got to 14.0, Dublin Airport/Shannon airport got 13.8. We'll see what Phoenix park maxed at tomorrow.

    Phoenix Park maxed at 14.1.


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    #72
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Just looking at the monthly figures, the IMT heading to the finish line is at 5.2, the rainfall is around 115% and there has been very little sunshine since the halfway point, I have not been keeping track but won't be surprised if it's lower than most forecasts. Looking at our forecasts, this may be the first time Con Sensus beats us all, I think it's possible because at a rough estimate Con has 70 to 75 points and I can't find anyone with quite that many. So the question will be, who is high human?


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    #73
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final data are in, we have ...

    IMT at 5.3 C

    MAX at 14.1 C (PP 29th)

    MIN at -6.3 C (Gurteen 22nd)

    PRC 121%

    SUN 75%

    bonus question about Cork's max on 5th was 10.8 C.

    Scoring soon if I can handle it.


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    #74
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,513 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    January contest -- scoring results


    Forecaster ..................... IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Cork-5th
    _________________________________________________________________

    Actual values .................5.3 ... 14.1 ... -6.3 ... 121 ... 075 ... 10.8


    Traecy1 .......................... 25 .... 17 .... 19 .... 01 .... 07 .... 10 ..... 79

    Con Sensus ...................... 24 .... 18 .... 12 .... 07 .... 05 .... 09 ..... 75

    Harps ............................. 24 .... 03 .... 14 .... 15 .... 07 .... 10 ..... 73
    Tae laidir ........................ 23 .... 09 .... 12 .... 11 .... 08 .... 10 ..... 73
    jambofc .......................... 21 .... 19 .... 05 .... 13 .... 03 .... 10 ..... 71
    cherryghost ..................... 24 .... 04 .... 18 .... 11 .... 05 .... 09 ..... 71
    homolumo ....................... 25 .... 18 .... 08 .... 07 .... 05 .... 06 ..... 69
    Deep Easterly** ............... 24 .... 16 .... 16 .... 13 .... 05 ..... 05 ..... 79-10=69
    Strasser .......................... 22 .... 20 .... 00 .... 11 .... 08 .... 08 ..... 69
    Jerry Seinfeld ................... 18 .... 18 .... 17 .... 03 .... 03 .... 10 ..... 69
    kindred spirit .................... 22 .... 17 .... 12 .... 05 .... 03 .... 07 ..... 66
    Danno ............................. 19 .... 19 .... 14 .... 01 .... 03 .... 09 ..... 65
    Hammer Archer ................ 17 .... 11 .... 09 .... 12 .... 08 ..... 06 ..... 63
    rameire ............................ 23 .... 17 .... 00 .... 04 .... 08 .... 08 ..... 60
    Pauldry ............................ 14 .... 20 .... 00 .... 11 .... 05 .... 09 ..... 59
    howlinwolf ........................ 14 .... 20 .... 06 .... 08 .... 05 ..... 06 ..... 59
    waterways ........................ 20 .... 06 .... 10 .... 08 .... 05 .... 08 ..... 57
    200motels ........................ 21 .... 13 .... 05 .... 02 .... 05 .... 08 ..... 54
    Bsal ................................. 18 .... 00 .... 15 .... 06 .... 05 .... 10 ..... 54
    "plan comes together" ........ 18 .... 09 .... 17 .... 03 .... 04 .... 02 ..... 53
    rebelbrowser** ................. 20 .... 19 .... 04 .... 10 .... 08 .... 01 ..... 62-10=52
    talkabout ......................... 22 .... 11 .... 03 .... 05 .... 07 .... 04 ..... 52
    okla ................................ 15 .... 05 .... 00 .... 15 .... 07 .... 10 ..... 52
    dacogawa ........................ 17 .... 09 .... 15 .... 05 .... 03 .... 02 ..... 51
    John mac ......................... 19 .... 03 .... 09 .... 07 .... 09 ..... 03 ..... 50
    jd .................................... 22 .... 10 .... 00 .... 05 .... 07 .... 05 ..... 49
    omicron ........................... 24 .... 00 .... 00 .... 08 .... 05 .... 10 ...... 47
    delw ................................ 18 .... 02 .... 04 .... 10 .... 07 .... 05 ..... 46
    nilhg ................................ 10 .... 19 .... 00 .... 00 .... 07 .... 08 ..... 44
    Rocky Bay ........................ 23 .... 00 .... 00 .... 12 .... 08 ..... 00 ..... 43
    DOCARCH ......................... 16 .... 15 .... 00 .... 05 .... 05 .... 01 ..... 42
    Rickylovesuall ................... 22 .... 04 .... 02 .... 05 .... 01 .... 07 ..... 41
    H2UMrsRobinson ............... 12 .... 12 .... 03 .... 03 .... 06 .... 05 ..... 41
    jpmarn* ........................... 16 .... 16 .... 00 .... 02 .... 02 .... 05 ..... 41-5=36
    Sea Fields ........................ 08 .... 11 .... 00 .... 09 .... 05 .... 02 ..... 35
    mickger844posts ............... 10 .... 18 .... 00 .... 03 .... 01 .... 03 ..... 35
    M.T. Cranium .................... 16 .... 14 .... 00 .... 01 .... 00 .... 03 ..... 34
    NIALL_D .......................... 13 .... 00 .... 07 .... 12 .... 03 ..... 00 ..... 35
    dasa29 ............................ 12 .... 00 .... 00 .... 10 .... 06 .... 07 ..... 35
    BEASTERLY ...................... 04 .... 13 .... 12 .... 00 .... 00 .... 05 ..... 34
    MiNdGaM3*....................... 12 .... 09 .... 00 .... 07 .... 02 .... 05 ..... 35-5=30
    lostinashford .................... 06 .... 16 .... 00 .... 01 .... 04 .... 00 ..... 27
    Joe Public ......................... 01 .... 16 .... 00 .... 04 .... 03 .... 01 .... 25
    _________________________________________________

    Well, we avoided the group humiliation of having Con Sensus beating everyone, thanks to Traecy1 who beat the cyborg attack. Deep Easterly matched Traecy's score before time penalty. Harps and Tae Laidir finished tied for second place as a result, and in general the scoring was fairly high -- don't forget to enter February which is now pinned.


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    #75
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Knew I was doing quite well but didn't expect to be that high, nice one. Still can't seem to top con sensus but good to start the year running


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