What recession?

ulyssescohen

The recession is a myth. I went to Liffey valley a while ago, and not only was there a queue to get into the car park - there was a queue to get out. It was choc-a-block. I recall a similar situation in Kildare Village a year ago. In fact, it is very difficult to get parking in Kildare Village after 2pm

There is no recession in this domestic economy. And I don't care what stats you provide - the car park barometer is accurate.

And I welcome the property tax - those who can afford subscriptions to Sky can well afford it. Well done Mr Noonan. Middle Ireland has lots more to give.

mikemac1

ulyssescohen wrote: »

the car park barometer

Are you the new David McWilliams? :cool:

saintsaltynuts

500,000 Unemployed.There's the recession.

dukedalton

ulyssescohen wrote: »

The recession is a myth. I went to Liffey valley a while ago, and not only was there a queue to get into the car park - there was a queue to get out. It was choc-a-block. I recall a similar situation in Kildare Village a year ago. In fact, it is very difficult to get parking in Kildare Village after 2pm

There is no recession in this domestic economy. And I don't care what stats you provide - the car park barometer is accurate.

And I welcome the property tax - those who can afford subscriptions to Sky can well afford it. Well done Mr Noonan. Middle Ireland has lots more to give.

I totally agree with the first two paragraphs.

As regards the final one, assuming Middle Ireland HAS more to give, the question I would ask is SHOULD we be giving it?

smcgiff

What's your own background. Employee, self employed, employer etc? What sector?

This will allow us to guage where you are coming from?

johnnyskeleton

saintsaltynuts wrote: »

500,000 Unemployed.There's the recession.

At the click of a button, I will magic those 500k down to 325k:

http://www.cso.ie/en/newsandevents/pressreleases/2012pressreleases/pressreleasequarterlynationalhouseholdsurveyquarter32012/

Still a lot of unemployed though.

ulyssescohen

Employee

smcgiff wrote: »

What's your own background. Employee, self employed, employer etc? What sector?

This will allow us to guage where you are coming from?

green123

ulyssescohen wrote: »

The recession is a myth. I went to Liffey valley a while ago, and not only was there a queue to get into the car park - there was a queue to get out. It was choc-a-block. I recall a similar situation in Kildare Village a year ago. In fact, it is very difficult to get parking in Kildare Village after 2pm

There is no recession in this domestic economy. And I don't care what stats you provide - the car park barometer is accurate.

And I welcome the property tax - those who can afford subscriptions to Sky can well afford it. Well done Mr Noonan. Middle Ireland has lots more to give.

82 % of people can afford to pay for sky or upc for television subscriptions.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/noonan-if-they-can-pay-for-sky-tv-they-can-pay-my-property-tax-3334471.html

noonan is right.

uncle_sam_ie

ulyssescohen wrote: »

The recession is a myth. I went to Liffey valley a while ago, and not only was there a queue to get into the car park - there was a queue to get out. It was choc-a-block. I recall a similar situation in Kildare Village a year ago. In fact, it is very difficult to get parking in Kildare Village after 2pm

There is no recession in this domestic economy. And I don't care what stats you provide - the car park barometer is accurate.

And I welcome the property tax - those who can afford subscriptions to Sky can well afford it. Well done Mr Noonan. Middle Ireland has lots more to give.

Of course it's packed. Everyone is going to the after Christmas sales. Try your barometer in a few weeks time when the sales are over. We got rid of sky long ago and have no more to give.

newmug

Eh, its Christmas! Thats usually when places like LV are full! If you had said that about some random Tuesday in April, then I'd agree.

smcgiff

Employee, what sector?

allthedoyles

Plus most of the employed are off today .- some businesses's in Dublin are only open half-day today .

Come back next Friday with an update

ulyssescohen

Its a quasi-rant - but it belies a more serious point, that things are not as bad as they are made out to be. Everybody keeps saying the country is broke - but if that were the case, why are the car parks full? This is not just Christmas, the sales - go to Kildare village on a random Sunday in April, and you will see how difficult it is to get a parking spot. Or try to book a restaurant in Dublin for tonight?

Things are not as bad as is made out in the mainstream media - and on forums such as this one;

godtabh

There maybe be queues in and out and the place packed but are people spending money? Places like Liffey Valley are an easy way to pace the time

ulyssescohen

why are you interested in sector?

smcgiff

Most sectors are in recession. I'd be curious to know of one where the employees are not affected.

ulyssescohen

:rolleyes: - but you've got to take into account inter-temporal considerations; not all are affected, with same severity, at same time :cool:

smcgiff wrote: »

Most sectors are in recession. I'd be curious to know of one where the employees are not affected.

Anyone

So you are basing your view on what you saw in Liffey Valley in one day, in the middle of sales. Good man.

AltAccount

ulyssescohen wrote: »

Its a quasi-rant - but it belies a more serious point, that things are not as bad as they are made out to be. Everybody keeps saying the country is broke - but if that were the case, why are the car parks full? This is not just Christmas, the sales - go to Kildare village on a random Sunday in April, and you will see how difficult it is to get a parking spot. Or try to book a restaurant in Dublin for tonight?

Things are not as bad as is made out in the mainstream media - and on forums such as this one;

So, what you're saying is that the fact that a major shopping centre has a full car park during the midst of the biggest Sale period of the year, and that the car park of an outlet/discount mall in Kildare (arguably one of the wealthier counties in Ireland) is full mid-year, is a good indicator that middle Ireland can bear more taxes?

Do you actually believe that people should be taxed and taxed until they have to choose between their Sky subscription and paying their taxes? Is that where you think the line should be drawn?

ulyssescohen

Nice condescending response - I believe the the car park barometer is a parsimonious one; and I believe that the shopping outlet is representative of those throughout the country. So, what else do I need?

Anyone wrote: »

So you are basing your view on what you saw in Liffey Valley in one day, in the middle of sales. Good man.

ballygowan1

saintsaltynuts wrote: »

500,000 Unemployed.There's the recession.

How many of those want to work? The amount of benefits they get in this country will people people will keep coming into this country to work.

smcgiff

ulyssescohen wrote: »

:rolleyes: - but you've got to take into account inter-temporal considerations; not all are affected, with same severity, at same time :cool:

So, you're not going to tell us you're in the public sector !

Luca Brasi

mikemac1 wrote: »

Are you the new David McWilliams? :cool:

Were they queing for breakfast rolls and wearing yellow builders jackets?

These shops are always packed after Christmas. Wait until the credit card bill hops in the door in January and the shops start closing down because there is no spare cash around. They get away with selling any old tat at Christmas

ulyssescohen

Actually, I work in both sectors. Sorry that you can't box me in conveniently

smcgiff wrote: »

So, you're not going to tell us you're in the public sector !

wadacrack

Of course we are in a reccession saying otherwise just because liffey street was packed is very naive. Any business in any small town will tell you that

Anyone

ulyssescohen wrote: »

So, what else do I need?

Some data might help your argument. Any idea on the amount of spend per customer? The amount of turnover required by a shop to turn a profit. Maybe you could see if your findings are true, and go to Liffey valley and Kildare every friday for the next 2-3 months, just to see that this "recovery" isnt a once off.

ulyssescohen

I think what you need to distinguish between cyclical recession and the structural downturn of a sector. I think they are two very separate issues.

wadacrack wrote: »

Of course we are in a reccession saying otherwise just because liffey street was packed is very naive. Any business in any small town will tell you that

ballygowan1

Our economy is actually growing so there is actually no recession

mogrady14

Small locally owned businesses are in recession. Go to towns and see the lack of people shopping in their local towns, they are shopping in large foreign owned retailers e.g. Kildare Outlet Centre, Swords Pavillions. The owners of these small locally owned businesses are in recession.

Private sector workers have lost their jobs in large numbers and became- unemployed, on disability or on single parent allowance (not working).

People with large mortgages are in recession as its difficult to repay them.

Clearly, you are not one of the above: Are you in the public sector?

ulyssescohen

Ok, maybe I'm being a bit flippant - I'm not suggesting that the car park barometer is a substitute for rigorous econometric analysis - but what it does indicate that things are not as bad as they are made out to be. I believe this view is complemented by both recent business and consumer confidence stats..

As to the data you mention, that's an entirely separate issue, and these factors are store specific - they don't provide any indicator of the state of the nation.

Anyone wrote: »

Some data might help your argument. Any idea on the amount of spend per customer? The amount of turnover required by a shop to turn a profit. Maybe you could see if your findings are true, and go to Liffey valley and Kildare every friday for the next 2-3 months, just to see that this "recovery" isnt a once off.

mikehunts

Why don't tip down in the middle of Jan, shops will be on their knees begging for customers.

Anyone

ulyssescohen wrote: »

As to the data you mention, that's an entirely separate issue, and these factors are store specific - they don't provide any indicator of the state of the nation.

They provide a far better indicator than a busy car park.

mogrady14

Why not change the title of this thread to "Public sector employee says there is no recession"

UlyssesCohen is very ignorant of what is happening to small shop owners and private sector workers. Clearly, she doesn't care.

mikemac1

Schools are off and Vue cinema is packed, was there yesterday

Easily over one thousand people in there OP, that accounts for a fair whack of the car park.

Spending money for sure but it doesn't mean many of them hit the shops before and after

Idbatterim

I know the Op's post was a bit tongue in cheek, but I happen to agree, I honestly reckon there is a huge difference in those who say they are struggling and those who actually are struggling...

AltAccount

ulyssescohen wrote: »

Nice condescending response - I believe the the car park barometer is a parsimonious one; and I believe that the shopping outlet is representative of those throughout the country. So, what else do I need?

Apologies, I didn't mean to sound condescending, but as one of those middle Ireland workers, I do feel (somehow) attacked by your OP.

I was in Dun Laoghaire for a couple of hours today. I didn't spend a penny, I was just getting my daughter out of the house for a couple of hours.
My car would have counted towards your "car park barometer" tally, but would have not been representative of additional spending power.

I still have my Sky subscription, because I can't afford to go to dinner or the cinema any more. My Sky subscription is not indicative of an abundance of disposable income.


The car park barometer is a relatively meaningless one without the metrics that other posters have asked for. To be able to say

There is no recession in this domestic economy. And I don't care what stats you provide - the car park barometer is accurate.

in your OP damages your entire argument imho.

As for

And I welcome the property tax - those who can afford subscriptions to Sky can well afford it. Well done Mr Noonan. Middle Ireland has lots more to give.

well, that really makes me feel angry tbh, and for you to backslap Mr. Noonan and welcome taxes for those who you believe to have extra money, based on your own massively flawed observation of the health of the Irish economy, just seems a bit mental...

smcgiff

ballygowan1 wrote: »

Our economy is actually growing so there is actually no recession

GNP as well as GDP?

Technically I think you're right. Technically.

osheen

I was in kilkenny for a stag 3 months ago - nice shopping town but at 2pm on a saturday afternoon all the shops were empty except for stag and hen parties . Dont think you can judge retail sales by liffey valley car park in december.

eviltwin

I was in my local Tesco last week near to closing and the amount of people hovering around the clearance section was shocking. I'm talking food now, not gifts. Is that evidence that people are on their knees and have no money? I'm sure some of those people drove, just cause they have a car in the car park don't mean they are out to spend big bucks.

There might be people out there who have money to shop but you don't know if that is cause they have money, got vouchers etc, are just window shopping etc. I know I can't go anywhere near the sales this year as much as I would love to and I'm not the only one.

Cheerful Spring

green123 wrote: »

82 % of people can afford to pay for sky or upc for television subscriptions.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/noonan-if-they-can-pay-for-sky-tv-they-can-pay-my-property-tax-3334471.html

noonan is right.

Noonan is a twat. Hes saying because you have UPC or Sky you can afford to pay property tax. Having cable is a choice ( you can take it or leave it) once a property tax is committed to, it will be next to impossible to remove it ( you pay it or you'll be fined or imprisoned possibly)

Everything will taxed eventually if you own it! Will they tax me for wearing shoes in a public place, tax me for taking in air outside my home?

Jeez ownership of anything of value pretty much gives the Irish government opportunity to screw you over numerous times.

Ownership of house or car is n't cheap this is a continuing cost for most people. I own a car, yet this somehow gives them a right to ask me to pay a car tax ( a tax mind you that never stays at a payable rate goes up every damn year) Now there asking people to pay a tax on a property they themselves went out and bought and fixed up ( its gas really it is). Bunch of cowboys running things. Given billions to people who don't give a toss about this country, says it all really.

ulyssescohen

Ok, I accept my opening remarks were flippant and intended to evoke reaction -but let me clear about this, I am not suggesting that all of middle Ireland are recession free. However, I do believe there is a large segment - many had cars in leffey valley today - that is doing quite all right, and can afford a property tax. This is not a public versus private sector (sorry smcniff), small town versus big town issue - it is simply an observation.

Shinaynay

just because its packed doesnt mean the stores are making the same money as last year.

You miss your targets a few weeks in a row and the amount of hours you can spend on staff get slashed to save on costs. no extra hrs for staff, they get pi$$ed off & quit and are not replaced.

just because there is a queue to get parking (kids on holls from school, parents who normally walk/bus take car instead) doesnt mean people are spending all the time everywhere!

Cheerful Spring

ulyssescohen wrote: »

The recession is a myth. I went to Liffey valley a while ago, and not only was there a queue to get into the car park - there was a queue to get out. It was choc-a-block. I recall a similar situation in Kildare Village a year ago. In fact, it is very difficult to get parking in Kildare Village after 2pm

There is no recession in this domestic economy. And I don't care what stats you provide - the car park barometer is accurate.

And I welcome the property tax - those who can afford subscriptions to Sky can well afford it. Well done Mr Noonan. Middle Ireland has lots more to give.

This is the christmas period (November to Jan) A true example of who's got money would be to see whos shopping in late Feb and march.

People save all year to shop for Christmas ( rich and poor) so if this was recent experience, it was likely because of christmas.

Scortho

I remember reading an article on breretons jewellers opening on grafton st. In it the owner John brereton was asked was he not concerned about opening in the midst of a recession. His reply was simple: there might be 400,000 people unemployed but there's 1.8 million in employment. Fairly optimistic from someone who's family had been waiting close to 100 Years to get onto grafton st.

murphaph

ulyssescohen wrote: »

Ok, I accept my opening remarks were flippant and intended to evoke reaction -but let me clear about this, I am not suggesting that all of middle Ireland are recession free. However, I do believe there is a large segment - many had cars in leffey valley today - that is doing quite all right, and can afford a property tax. This is not a public versus private sector (sorry smcniff), small town versus big town issue - it is simply an observation.

The question is should anything else be given/asked for before targeted and effective cuts are made in government spending?

Bullseye1

ulyssescohen wrote: »

:rolleyes: - but you've got to take into account inter-temporal considerations; not all are affected, with same severity, at same time :cool:

Tell that to those of us who make living in the construction industry. You may not be experiencing a recession and maybe you should be paying more taxes.

EricPraline

ulyssescohen wrote: »

The recession is a myth. I went to Liffey valley a while ago, and not only was there a queue to get into the car park - there was a queue to get out. It was choc-a-block. I recall a similar situation in Kildare Village a year ago. In fact, it is very difficult to get parking in Kildare Village after 2pm

Could you estimate what proportion of people were buying versus window shopping? Of those buying, could you estimate what proportion were buying on credit, based on the optimistic assumption that we've turned a corner, the worst is behind us, and so on?

I'm not denying that a small number of out-of-town centres are doing well this week, such as Kildare Village and Dundrum. But you don't have to go far as a small rural town to see a different picture. This week Blackrock village resembles a scene from 28 Days Later (zombies aside).

Perhaps car park occupancy is correlated with increased spending, but it might also just reflect the fact that the weather has been poor over the last few days and families have little else to do.

cbreeze

I was in a massive queue on Christmas eve in my local SV [only spent 14.37 including half price cheese] but other shoppers were not over doing it either. very few bods there yesterday.

JoeGil

Waited on a bus in Kildare Village today for half an hour. Place was mobbed - recession is well and truly over.

sea sound

The recession is not a myth but the media oversimplify whats happening to suggest everyone is worse off. Alot of the newly unemployed people (since the recession) have had a big reductions in income, but a significant amount of the workers in the private (e.g. software engineers, scientists) and most in the public sector (e.g. teachers, civil servants) have not had big reductions in pay or were on very high pay to begin with. Hence why alot of people can afford Sky TV, and therfore the property tax.

Looking at car parks at Christmas may not give a good indicator of how the economy is doing, but alot of people are not doing too badly when there are so many stores selling expensive branded merchandise all year in places like Liffey Valley.

Bullseye1

Having Sky TV is no indication of wealth or disposable income. Maybe these people don't go out socialising or on holidays.