What recession?

tails_naf

I have to agree in part with the OP (in spirit, not delivery) - it's purely observational, but:

1) For at least 6 weeks before Christmas I observed something similar - it was hard to get in or out of any big shopping center with the tail-backs - took me 45 mins to drive from the M50 to dundrum one saturday afternoon in November!

2) The average age (and class) of cars is amazing. I work in the private sector, with a reasonable job, and drive an 05, high-mileage passat.
From looking whats around me while driving (mostly on the M8), I would say the average year of cars on the road is 09/08, with many 10,11,12 also. Also, there are many fine cars, with no shortage of these newer cars being BMWs/Mercs/Audis. I'd love to see stats on the car ownership actually, to see how far 'off' my observations are. The point being, there must be a lot of people out there doing very well to be able to afford such cars.

3) Restaurants - many in cork city seem to be doing quite well - hard to get a table at weekends, and prices are not that cheap, so again - lots of people with money to spend - or so it seems.

I don't agree with the assertion that middle-Ireland should shoulder the burden though.

T-K-O

You can get sky tv for less than €30 a month. Car parks are jammed with people maxing their credit cards for Christmas.

Good loser

On News today Retail Ireland reported a good Christmas - up on last year.

thebman

sea sound wrote: »

e.g. software engineers, scientists

Obviously you don't work at either of these things.

Last 3 IT companies I worked for, layed off/outsourced most of the IT, laying off most IT staff and cutting the wages of the remaining.

The people not touched were sales/marketing/accounting...

stoneill

Sorry for not walking about in a sackcloth and eating stale bread just so you have a visual indication of a recession.

mogrady14

thebman wrote: »

Obviously you don't work at either of these things.

Last 3 IT companies I worked for, layed off/outsourced most of the IT, laying off most IT staff and cutting the wages of the remaining.

The people not touched were sales/marketing/accounting...

I thought IT was supposed to be doing well and there were so many jobs in IT that we couldn't fill them. So, the truth is different to what we are told.

veetwin

Tried to park in Mahon point in cork at lunch time and gave up. Place was absolutey mobbed. Ok it was a wet afternoon and the kids and a lot of workers are off but still an indication of a certain confidence. I was in Currys earlier and the tv section was buzzing. People were certainly spending money..probably waiting for value in the sales.

Recession? I don't know. I work in the airport and I still come accross many flying over the premiership games and going on shopping trips to the states. Ok the numbers have fallen but are rising again.

Half a million unemployed is a bit of a red herring as a sizeable number will be better off on welfare than they ever would be working. Even those will have in many cases considerable spending power.

T-K-O

veetwin wrote: »

Tried to park in Mahon point in cork at lunch time and gave up. Place was absolutey mobbed. Ok it was a wet afternoon and the kids and a lot of workers are off but still an indication of a certain confidence. I was in Currys earlier and the tv section was buzzing. People were certainly spending money..probably waiting for value in the sales.

Recession? I don't know. I work in the airport and I still come accross many flying over the premiership games and going on shopping trips to the states. Ok the numbers have fallen but are rising again.

Half a million unemployed is a bit of a red herring as a sizeable number will be better off on welfare than they ever would be working. Even those will have in many cases considerable spending power.

Yep spending my money. This is a cause and not the solution. The more people on the dole, the more it costs the country = recession

thebman

mogrady14 wrote: »

I thought IT was supposed to be doing well and there were so many jobs in IT that we couldn't fill them. So, the truth is different to what we are told.

Example:
Company hires 10 new developers with 1-3 years experience on 25,000 Eur, it is in every newspaper.

6 months later once they've been trained, company lets 10 senior developers go that were being paid 50,000 Eur each.

Now generally they will keep one or two senior developers around but get rid of the rest.

The cuts don't make the newspapers in a small company, the hiring does. Everyone gets told IT is booming.

It is booming because it is reducing costs not because there are lots of well paying jobs in IT. Most companies (I dare say all) consider IT an expense they put up with so the other departments can make them money. Companies like to minimise expenses.

ednwireland

i'm off to buy a new fridge freezer, old one broke couple of days ago after 20+ years local retailer only opens after xmas tomorrow (can't be that desperate for business :rolleyes:)

veetwin

ednwireland wrote: »

i'm off to buy a new fridge freezer, old one broke couple of days ago after 20+ years local retailer only opens after xmas tomorrow (can't be that desperate for business :rolleyes:)

Where are you going to get a new fridge at 11.30pm?

thebman

veetwin wrote: »

Where are you going to get a new fridge at 11.30pm?

Amazon, straight to your door and they have a sale on

veetwin

thebman wrote: »

Amazon, straight to your door and they have a sale on

In fairness we were talking about the Irish economy and retailers. How is your reply in any way relevant or constructive?

beaner88

Cold hard stats and not anecdotes.

http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/services/2012/rsi_oct2012.pdf

Value of sales is down by 25% or so from the peak. This would be far higher when only considering the non-essential items that seem people would see as indicative of a buoyant economy.

Value of various items that could be considered discretionary spending.

http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/statire/temp/20121228234844231581RSM03_23485416.gif

A 60% reduction in household items in the past 5 years alone. Clothing down 30%.

thebman

veetwin wrote: »

In fairness we were talking about the Irish economy and retailers. How is your reply in any way relevant or constructive?

About as relevant as your but anyway given Irish retailers have to compete against Amazon, it is very relevant.

Lots of people window shop in stores and buy online these days. No guarantee that anybody out shopping is actually spending.

beaner88

thebman wrote: »

About as relevant as your but anyway given Irish retailers have to compete against Amazon, it is very relevant.

Lots of people window shop in stores and buy online these days. No guarantee that anybody out shopping is actually spending.

You can see direct evidence of this. Volume of sales is doing ok but people are spending far less. They are going to the shops out of consumer habit but they don't have the money to spend.

http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/statire/temp/2012122823546231581RSM03_2354976.gif

AlekSmart

ulyssescohen wrote: »

Nice condescending response - I believe the the car park barometer is a parsimonious one; and I believe that the shopping outlet is representative of those throughout the country. So, what else do I need?

Ulyssescohen,I'd suggest adding Tatoo Parlours to that list....€1,000 for a single arm full-sleeve,with a 6 to 8 week wait for an appointment.....WTF :eek: ...but but but,what about the austerity package.?...get me Mary Lou..no wait !...get me Mary Lou,Clare Daly and Ming on the phone pronto ?

Scortho

AlekSmart wrote: »

Ulyssescohen,I'd suggest adding Tatoo Parlours to that list....€1,000 for a single arm full-sleeve,with a 6 to 8 week wait for an appointment.....WTF :eek: ...but but but,what about the austerity package.?...get me Mary Lou..no wait !...get me Mary Lou,Clare Daly and Ming on the phone pronto ?

Do tattoo artists get the artists exemption?

maninasia

Retailers best pre-Christmas trading in years.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2012/1229/1224328252109.html

There are still a lot of people on decent salaries in Ireland, and social welfare rates are generous compared to other countries. Although the government is slowly cutting spending, there have been no forced lay-offs in the public sector and people who took redundancy were given lump sums and substantial pensions. Pensioners incomes have barely reduced. So it's not really surprising that people REMAINING IN IRELAND have money in their pocket. It is partly supported by massive government borrowing however.

I'm guessing that a lot of the money is being spent in the big cities and shopping centres and regional towns are villages are really suffering.

femur61

godtabh wrote: »

There maybe be queues in and out and the place packed but are people spending money? Places like Liffey Valley are an easy way to pace the time

Also,shops are practically giving away stuff. The sales started with up to 50% off before Christmas.

I was in Waterford in October it was sad the place was so lifeless. In Kilkenny it has not been hit as bad but mid week the shops are dead.

Restaurants are doing such good deals at the moment with early birds being offered all evening long and at the weekends now.

BuzzFish

thebman wrote: »

Example:
Company hires 10 new developers with 1-3 years experience on 25,000 Eur, it is in every newspaper.

6 months later once they've been trained, company lets 10 senior developers go that were being paid 50,000 Eur each.

Now generally they will keep one or two senior developers around but get rid of the rest.

The cuts don't make the newspapers in a small company, the hiring does. Everyone gets told IT is booming.

It is booming because it is reducing costs not because there are lots of well paying jobs in IT. Most companies (I dare say all) consider IT an expense they put up with so the other departments can make them money. Companies like to minimise expenses.

Not my experience and I've been working in IT for 12 years now. I put my CV on Monster a few weeks ago and my phone nearly exploded. IT is booming, and mainly for those with experience. It's far easier to get a 45k+ job than a starting job on 25+

The company I work for has been continually recruiting for the past 24+ months and it is a constant struggle to attract talent here. So much so that we have been attending recruitment fairs in Spain/Portugal and moving people over to Dublin.

monkeypants

Noonan's right, but so what? While we're not all sitting at home in the dark eating porridge, we can afford the property tax. I know I can. I paid the Household Charge and I'll pay the Property Tax, even though I don't know how much it is yet. However, that money can only be spent once. I'll simply cut back on something else. The council will be funded by me, but something else won't.

As for retail parks, shopping centres, etc. I'll find myself in either the Pavilions or Airside at least once each weekend. Nineteen times out of twenty, I'll head home with my hands empty. I walk around Harvey Norman's and look at bright and shiny things. Does this indicate some economic activity?

AlekSmart

monkeypants wrote: »

Noonan's right, but so what? While we're not all sitting at home in the dark eating porridge, we can afford the property tax. I know I can. I paid the Household Charge and I'll pay the Property Tax, even though I don't know how much it is yet.....
....As for retail parks, shopping centres, etc. I'll find myself in either the Pavilions or Airside at least once each weekend. Nineteen times out of twenty, I'll head home with my hands empty. I walk around Harvey Norman's and look at bright and shiny things. Does this indicate some economic activity?

Yes,It depresses the worldwide Porridge Market,who will think of the poor Polynesian Porridge Farmers who desperately need Monkeypantspeople to eat Porridge..Morning,Noon and Night ! Think Porridge Economy people...down with bright shiny things !!

lufties

Irish people go absolutely mental buying stuff at Christmas time, personally I think it's part of the 'I'm alright jack mentality'.

monkeypants

I refuse to pay any proposed porridge tax.

monkeypants

lufties wrote: »

Irish people go absolutely mental buying stuff at Christmas time, personally I think it's part of the 'I'm alright jack mentality'.

Myself and the missus bought gifts for others, but nothing for each other.

allthedoyles

I'm really looking forward to watching out for this new 131 car reg numbers ...........Should point us in the direction of the recession

lufties

monkeypants wrote: »

Myself and the missus bought gifts for others, but nothing for each other.

Your a then in the minority..I cringe when I see the amount of stuff that friends of mine bought their missus, begin to wonder if its just keeping up with the neighbours carry on.

p1akuw47h5r3it

Good loser wrote: »

On News today Retail Ireland reported a good Christmas - up on last year.

I think what might have been reported was that the week leading up to Christmas was good. Where I work we where way down on Budget leading up to Christmas, then had loads of customers the week before. January then tends to be awful again

fall

A group of approximately 80 people headed to Florida for Christmas near where I work and not one of them has a job. I work full time, pay my mortgage and bills and again this year could not afford to buy presents for my husband. Some of the people in this group were talking about the Christmas clothes that they had bought for their kids. Figures like €600 in Abercrombie were being quoted. My child got one outfit in Dunnes and anything else was a gift. The recession is very real for my family but non existent for others.

thebman

BuzzFish wrote: »

Not my experience and I've been working in IT for 12 years noMost put my CV on Monster a few weeks ago and my phone nearly exploded. IT is booming, and mainly for those with experience. It's far easier to get a 45k+ job than a starting job on 25+

The company I work for has been continually recruiting for the past 24+ months and it is a constant struggle to attract talent here. So much so that we have been attending recruitment fairs in Spain/Portugal and moving people over to Dublin.

You get offers for companies with poor working conditions hence the high staff turn over and why they are online headhunting or recruitment agencies fishing to get experienced cvs on their system regardless of roles available.

If your struggling to attract people with experience to your company, they have probably blackened their name. Either that or the job descriptions need review or perhaps HR isn't doing their job.

I've worked for job sites in the past, there are reasons companies struggle to hire and it isn't lack of people willing to work.

The good places never struggle to find people and I've seen the statistics that prove it directly off the database. The only reason a good place to work, doesn't get the applicants is bad advertising.

Michael_Dare

Very occasionally, we'll hear someone on the radio talking about the two economies, and there's a lot of truth to it.

There's the bad economy, which contains the unemployed, or those in work who bought a property in the five years before 2008.

And there's the 'other' economy, populated by those who don't have a huge mortgage on a property that is only worth a fraction of that mortgage. These people include a lot of the over 40s, and a lot of younger people in their 20s who have jobs - public or private sector.

The truth - as far as I see it - is that if you have a good job, and you didn't buy at the wrong time, you will still have a lot of disposable income. Recent tax hikes and fuel hikes are often offset by lower rents (for the younger, non-mortgage holder), and cheaper entertainment (hotels, restaurants, wine, etc.).

Those in work, in particular those working for companies whose income doesn't rely on the Irish economy (tech sector, finance, multi-nationals, pharma, etc.), are often doing fine - as long as they don't have that 2003-2008 mortgage working against them.

These are the people who are spending heavily in the sales. But we don't hear about them, because they don't have anything to 'Talk to Joe' about, and they don't feature in newspapers.

No judgement here - this is the reality on the ground for a lot of people. Some are having it hard, and some are not. The saddest part is that those who have found themselves in the bad economy, are probably going to stay there for a long while. But don't assume that everyone is living in that bad economy, because they're not.

dutopia

There is a recession, but there is also the middle class who may not have the disposable income they had during the boom times, but they still have enough money to go shopping and have a few meals out. The recession is hitting the lower middle class more whose disposable income basically doesn't exist anymore. Also, there are loads of unemployed people.

strandroad

thebman wrote: »

I've worked for job sites in the past, there are reasons companies struggle to hire and it isn't lack of people willing to work.

The good places never struggle to find people and I've seen the statistics that prove it directly off the database. The only reason a good place to work, doesn't get the applicants is bad advertising.

Not true at all, it depends on skillset/experience required. My company has no issues with recruiting in general but two positions have not been filled for a while due to the shortages in a specific skill/exp combo. They will now recruit abroad.

Forest Demon

fall wrote: »

A group of approximately 80 people headed to Florida for Christmas near where I work and not one of them has a job. I work full time, pay my mortgage and bills and again this year could not afford to buy presents for my husband. Some of the people in this group were talking about the Christmas clothes that they had bought for their kids. Figures like €600 in Abercrombie were being quoted. My child got one outfit in Dunnes and anything else was a gift. The recession is very real for my family but non existent for others.

I know when I was out of work and on 188 a week I did not know what to spend the remaining money on after all the bills where paid and food and clothing was bought. :rolleyes:

80 people on the dole going to Florida? It must be 80 people who are working while on the dole. Other then that I must declare shenanigans on your post.

Wanderer2010

It is strange to see such a huge amount of people out shopping for expensive items around Xmas time and then the same people come out again for the sales, so there is obviously money somewhere. Then you hear of all these stories of people not being able to pay their heating bill or feed their kids so these people are somewhere too but hard to spot when you see nothing but shoppers flashing the cash.

There are obviously 3 different Irelands out there, give or take. The wealthy class who were never affected by any cuts or taxes and continue to enjoy a lavish lifestyle, Im thinking the top civil servants, government, judges etc. Then the squeezed middle who have had to make a lot of changes but still have savings or enough income to have a decent enough lifestyle then the people on low incomes who are struggling to just survive and live mostly cheque to cheque or on their dole payments and have to adjust to a lower income.

Its hard to see these different groups at times I admit when the media bombards you with clips of people spending like crazy.

RainyDay

fall wrote: »

A group of approximately 80 people headed to Florida for Christmas near where I work and not one of them has a job.

I find these kinds of anecdotes strange. There is no group of 80 people in my community that I could speak definitively about their employment status. I wonder how you could be so sure about their status?

mikemac1

I know a group who also go abroad and none of them work

They are pensioners and they go to Lourdes

thebman

mhge wrote: »

Not true at all, it depends on skillset/experience required. My company has no issues with recruiting in general but two positions have not been filled for a while due to the shortages in a specific skill/exp combo. They will now recruit abroad.

These are outliers. The vast majority of jobs there is no issue finding anyone for as you say yourself you had no bother finding people for the other roles.

You shouldn't be surprised that if you have odd requirements that people won't apply because they don't meet the criteria, you need to look elsewhere or promote from within the company and provide training or hire someone without that skill and train them in that skill.

Irish companies in general don't provide training and then wonder why they can't find those specialists. It is because they aren't here because nobody is training them so how can they apply for a job with you?

bluecode

The OP's post it typical of the smug response from someone who hasn't being particularly hard hit by the recession. Of which there are plenty. But mark my words Noonan has you in his sights.

I grew up in the seventies and eighties. Take my word for it, the shops were crowded every Christmas and for the sales every year. But it wasn't a barometer of how well off people were. It was that time of year. It's the same every year and unless things get very bad indeed so it will continue.

The no recession myth is part of the same myth that we all were better off during the boom and we all got greedy. That is a lie. The reality is that certain people became better off, notably certain trades like building and the financial sector and the public service through their cosy benchmarking deal.

The vast majority of ordinary people were no better off. Many of the jobs in the multinational sector were not that well paid for the ordinary production line jobs. Most of these jobs were taken up by those people who previously emigrated or were unemployed. Those same people are now either unemployed again or gone.

There was one difference during the boom and that was availability of credit to the point where almost anyone qualified.

I know one thing from working in the multinational sector was that I was less money in 2006 than I was in 2003. So much for the boom.

So if you haven't been badly hit by the recession well thank your lucky stars. Don't rub it in on those who are struggling.

If the government takes the same shortsighted attitude as some of you here. They won't be satisfied until most of us emigrate or end up living day to day with the help of VdeP or similar. Who are incidentally the better people to ask about the effect of the recession.

The only way this country will turn around is for people to have money in the bank and the confidence to spend it. Money they earned from their own efforts and not gifted to them from the taxpayer in the private sector who are carrying this country right now.

Enjoy it while you can OP.

strandroad

thebman wrote: »

These are outliers. The vast majority of jobs there is no issue finding anyone for as you say yourself you had no bother finding people for the other roles.

You shouldn't be surprised that if you have odd requirements that people won't apply because they don't meet the criteria, you need to look elsewhere or promote from within the company and provide training or hire someone without that skill and train them in that skill.

Irish companies in general don't provide training and then wonder why they can't find those specialists. It is because they aren't here because nobody is training them so how can they apply for a job with you?

These are not odd requirements and no, a trained up junior won't be able to do the job. Junior jobs are easy to fill but specialists are in huge demand. i get contacted regularly and not just by agents.

southsiderosie

MOD NOTE:

I'd like to remind posters that this is neither the Conspiracy Theories nor the Ranting and Raving forum. Please post accordingly.

Rants, replies to rants, and off-topic posts deleted.

johnnyskeleton

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

It is strange to see such a huge amount of people out shopping for expensive items around Xmas time and then the same people come out again for the sales, so there is obviously money somewhere. Then you hear of all these stories of people not being able to pay their heating bill or feed their kids so these people are somewhere too but hard to spot when you see nothing but shoppers flashing

Maybe there is a rush to return Christmas presents to exchange for cash or other essential items.

fall

Forest Demon wrote: »

I know when I was out of work and on 188 a week I did not know what to spend the remaining money on after all the bills where paid and food and clothing was bought. :rolleyes:

80 people on the dole going to Florida? It must be 80 people who are working while on the dole. Other then that I must declare shenanigans on your post.

There are no shenanigans. They work selling stolen goods, cigarettes etc. they also pay for nothing and get every allowance going. This is more common than you think.

mikemac1

And of course you have reported them?

AlekSmart

mikemac1 wrote: »

And of course you have reported them?

Given that "Fall" was alive and posting at 22:11,I very much doubt he/she had reported the four score Florida bound entrepreneurs....;)

"this is more common than you think"....Amen to that !! :rolleyes:

fall

numerous government agencies including the guards engage with these people . As the saying goes the dogs on the street know. I am a relatively new poster to boards but a long time reader and I find it quite amusing really how when a statement is made that if some don't agree with you then you must be lying and secondly the and what did you do about it attitude. It is a discussion about the reality of the recession. For the record I am not knocking the genuine unemployed, those that worked and now can't get a job. I believe those people are having a truly hard time but just like the really rich are escaping unscathed there is an element of society still enjoying a materially high standard of living and they have never and will never work. The Florida trip has been going on for at least 5 years and these people also go on holiday during the year. This is not anecdotal it is a fact and there is a moderator on here who works in the same area and can confirm that this is the case.

Retailer

As a retailer who gets no benefits from the sales, or indeed Christmas for that matter, this rush to spend money in the Sales will have a knock on effect for many many small businesses over the coming months/year, in my opinion.

When all the spending is done in a few days and the realisation of the credit card bills actually settles in, coupled with the property tax, lower child benefit etc, I'm predicting this year to be a horrendous year for retailers like myself.

So much so that we are looking at the possibility of activating our break clause in our lease in a few months time, with unfortunately the loss of 5 jobs. (I bet Mr. Noonan et all won't be at that photocall!)

Obviously I hope it doesn't come to that and that the break clause gives us the opportunity to seek a rent decrease.

Anyway I'm waffling.
My point is that all the projections/predictions we have done for the forthcoming 12 months point to a significant decrease in retail spending from February onwards.

The Waltzing Consumer

Retailer wrote: »

Anyway I'm waffling.
My point is that all the projections/predictions we have done for the forthcoming 12 months point to a significant decrease in retail spending from February onwards.

Isn't that usually how it goes anyway?

Recession or not, the Christmas period is always the busiest time for retail so it naturally decreases after Feb anyway until Xmas 13.

I hope you did not pay anyone significant amount of money for all those projections and predictions :P

RichardAnd

fall wrote: »

I find it quite amusing really how when a statement is made that if some don't agree with you then you must be lying and secondly the and what did you do about it attitude.

I agree with this but you have to remember context. If someone comes onto this forum, or any other for that matter, and types up a rant like post littered with exclamation marks and sweeping statements, then they will be called to task, right or wrong. The original poster's post makes a massive generalisation based on the observations of a single individual who does not in the least seem an open minded or rational individual.

As for the "what are you going to do about it?" rebuke, well I agree there as well. I saw alot of that back when Occupy Dame Street was in full swing. People who complain vociferously about the EU, IMF, venal government, etc turned right at those protesters filled with smug remarks and snide quips. I don't know what the logic behind such self defeating, mirthlessly negative lines of thought is but it doesn't make for uplifting reading.

That's slightly off topic there so I apologise.