What recession?

Scofflaw

FREETV wrote: »

Anybody other than FF, FG and Labour. All the same these three. Corrupt as hell. Immature and cannot even behave in the Oireachtas. All lies and half truths from them. They do not speak on behalf of the majority of people. They may as well unite under one party name.

Speaking on behalf of the majority of the people is the one thing they do indeed do. That's how they come to hold the vast majority of the seats in the Dáil after a general election.

cordially,
Scofflaw

beaner88

darkhorse wrote: »

Does that mean that welfare receipients dont have to pay car tax or vrt or tax on fuel or carbon tax, they only pay tax on their spend, such as vat, is that right?

Do people on welfare use cars? They certainly don't pay vrt on new cars. They also receive a winter fuel allowance which covers their home fuel bills. So yeah, no real tax being paid by them.

RainyDay

beaner88 wrote: »

So yeah, no real tax being paid by them.

Perhaps you haven't heard of VAT, or customs duties?

beaner88

RainyDay wrote: »

Perhaps you haven't heard of VAT, or customs duties?

Perhaps you haven't read the previous posts in this page.

RainyDay

beaner88 wrote: »

Perhaps you haven't read the previous posts in this page.

Oh I've read them. Your refusal to 'buy the analysis' does not change facts. Everyone pays tax. VAT is a huge tax, and was bringing in more to the State than income tax recently. It might suit some people's 'analysis' to pretend that this doesn't happen, but that doesn't change facts.

beaner88

If you're not a net contributor then you are not a tax payer.

RainyDay

beaner88 wrote: »

If you're not a net contributor then you are not a tax payer.

Have you been appointed Minister for Finance? If not, you don't get to decide who is a tax payer and who is not a tax payer. A little bit of common sense would suggest that if you pay tax, then you're a tax payer.

monkeypants

Boskowski wrote: »

I don't understand why people keep bringing negative equity into it?

I think it's because negative equity prevents you from limiting your liability for this tax.

djpbarry

Bullseye1 wrote: »

How about you tell us how much in every euro we should pay?

Enough to cover the current deficit, less any cuts that are likely to be imposed in the near future.

It's pretty simple really.

Bullseye1 wrote: »

Another alternative which you have either failed to recognise or maybe you do not accept is to get some of those 300,000 people back working.

In the meantime, there are books to be balanced.

Bullseye1 wrote: »

I agree the tax base is too narrow. With those 300,000, even 200,000 back at work and that tax base got a whole lot wider.

Will it? Suppose those 200,000 people take minimum wage jobs?

Bullseye1 wrote: »

Smirk all you like about TV your the one agreeing with Noonan and is stupid sky comments.

Nope. I think it's silly to try and draw any kind of conclusions about a household based on the fact that they have a cable TV subscription, unless the conclusion is "that household has a cable TV subscription."

gbee

djpbarry wrote: »

Nope. I think it's silly to try and draw any kind of conclusions about a household based on the fact that they have a cable TV subscription, unless the conclusion is "that household has a cable TV subscription."

You might think so, however, my bank manger took a dim view of the cost of my subscription prior to my fall, it was always the FIRST thing they stopped on DD as things were going bad.

We had an interview with SW and they asked if we had SKY TV and upon answering in the affirmative they told us to have a nice day NEXT.

When our eviction notice arrived we tried again, first question was had we a SKY subscription, we produced SKY's threatening letter for €75 telling us to expect goons at the door.

End of interview, we were given cash immediately and had it backdated an all.

I can't disagree with you, but, but I'll leave it there.

FREETV

Scofflaw wrote: »

Speaking on behalf of the majority of the people is the one thing they do indeed do. That's how they come to hold the vast majority of the seats in the Dáil after a general election.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Yes before the election maybe but not now over two years post election as they have broken all of their promises.

djpbarry

gbee wrote: »

You might think so, however, my bank manger took a dim view of the cost of my subscription prior to my fall, it was always the FIRST thing they stopped on DD as things were going bad.

Well that's completely different, because your bank knows quite a bit about your financial situation.

mariaalice

I know these are anecdotes however, I was out a good bit over Christmas and most of the restaurants we went to were full of older middle aged couples so no surprises there they are the group who have largely missed the recession, we also went away for a night before new year and the hotel was full they told us this as we checked in, but the intriguing thing was that it was full of family's with small children now we are told that this it the exact age group who have been hit by the recession, the bar of the hotel was full to bursting point with people drinking and buying food. I was in IKea today and again it was full of families buying stuff and there was a long que at the delivery desk with people buying large house hold items, on the way home we passed Dundrum shopping centre and the green car park was full! I do not believe every one was in the shopping centre buying nothing.

Maybe it a two speed recession like the housing market.

AltAccount

mariaalice wrote: »

I know these are anecdotes however, I was out a good bit over Christmas and most of the restaurants we went to were full of older middle aged couples so no surprises there they are the group who have largely missed the recession, we also went away for a night before new year and the hotel was full they told us this as we checked in, but the intriguing thing was that it was full of family's with small children now we are told that this it the exact age group who have been hit by the recession, the bar of the hotel was full to bursting point with people drinking and buying food.

I was in a hotel restaurant yesterday evening with my wife (Christmas present from my brother, before anybody asks... :rolleyes::)), and I'd say there were 4 families in the whole place - standard 2 middle-agers and two sub-12 kids.



And just to specify, by that I mean there were 4 families, and no one else! Possibly 16 people being served, there didn't seem to be a second sitting for dinner either.

Not that it means anything in a statistical sense, but for every anecdote you'll find an opposite one...

darkhorse

mariaalice wrote: »

I know these are anecdotes however, I was out a good bit over Christmas and most of the restaurants we went to were full of older middle aged couples so no surprises there they are the group who have largely missed the recession, we also went away for a night before new year and the hotel was full they told us this as we checked in, but the intriguing thing was that it was full of family's with small children now we are told that this it the exact age group who have been hit by the recession, the bar of the hotel was full to bursting point with people drinking and buying food. I was in IKea today and again it was full of families buying stuff and there was a long que at the delivery desk with people buying large house hold items, on the way home we passed Dundrum shopping centre and the green car park was full! I do not believe every one was in the shopping centre buying nothing.

Maybe it a two speed recession like the housing market.

Is it possible that a lot of the people that you speak about could have been from northern ireland, as it is worth their while, what with the difference between pound and euro. Why I say this, is because I heard it reported on the news over the christmas that there were quite a lot of northern shoppers down south.

repsol

AltAccount wrote: »

I was in a hotel restaurant yesterday evening with my wife (Christmas present from my brother, before anybody asks... :rolleyes::)), and I'd say there were 4 families in the whole place - standard 2 middle-agers and two sub-12 kids.



And just to specify, by that I mean there were 4 families, and no one else! Possibly 16 people being served, there didn't seem to be a second sitting for dinner either.

Not that it means anything in a statistical sense, but for every anecdote you'll find an opposite one...

Sign of the times when you have to justify going out by saying it was a present.........or an indication of how many begrudgers there are on boards.ie/in Irish society who expect everyone else to be as miserable as they are!

gbee

repsol wrote: »

who expect everyone else to be as miserable as they are!

No, in fact I demand it.

AltAccount

repsol wrote: »

Sign of the times when you have to justify going out by saying it was a present.........or an indication of how many begrudgers there are on boards.ie/in Irish society who expect everyone else to be as miserable as they are!

I just wanted to make sure nobody used my presence in the restaurant as an indication that the recession was over!

repsol

AltAccount wrote: »

I just wanted to make sure nobody used my presence in the restaurant as an indication that the recession was over!

My mate wants to buy a 60 grand jeep (and has the cash saved) but his missus won't let him because her 2 brothers are on the dole and she thinks it would be "insensitive"!I bought a new car recently and was told by the wifes friend that she would be "embarrassed" to drive a new car in the current climate.I think this attitude is ridiculous.

Madam_X

Two sides to the coin: people who go on as if Ireland is like Albania, and people who think because they and a lot of people are fine, nobody is struggling and anyone on the dole is a scrounger with numerous other options. Both groups are dumb.

mariaalice

Leaving aside the over the top answers on either side, I think people are just trying to contextualise it a bit, the media is ( all kinds of media including boards ) would have you believe its the end of the world as we know it but for a large amount of people that is not what they are seeing around them and its making them wonder what is the real story ( either good or bad ) or maybe more realistically its not as dire as the media would have you think

Sand

I think the recession is fairly broad but its limited to certain large groups. If you live in Dublin and you're still working in the IFSC or the public sector then there is no recession really. If you live elsewhere or are not working then you're going to have a different experience.

Its very clear the government, for all the talk of social justice and so on, has prioritized certain groups over others for selfish reasons. There has always been a schizophrenic strategy embedded in Official Ireland's response to the fiscal crisis - NAMA is a clear sign of this. As warned, the imperative of NAMA making a profit has served to prevent a real and sensible process of addressing the debt and rental issues in Ireland. This has been at the cost of ordinary people, but to the benefit of Official Ireland.

Right now, some people get kind words and an encouragement to emigrate to "learn skills and gain experience", whereas others get guaranteed pensions, incremental pay rises without merit, and permanent jobs. That's a choice the Green Jersey brigade has deliberately made right from the start.

@djpbarry

Clearly they are not [paying enough tax], no. If they were, there wouldn't be a huge deficit.

The deficit is a matter of spending being greater than revenue. The real standout discrepancy in the Irish fiscal situation is the spending. Interesting you discount spending when it comes to solving the fiscal deficit.

Ireland already tried to tax and spend itself out of a crisis in the 1980s. The 1980s.

It failed then. Its failing now. Cut spending ASAP whilst prioritizing basic front-line services and you'll see a recovery.

Scofflaw

FREETV wrote: »

Yes before the election maybe but not now over two years post election as they have broken all of their promises.

To be honest, I'm amazed anyone even bothers remembering election promises, since I can't think of any government that hasn't been accused of exactly this. I can't say I actually voted #1 for Fine Gael any more than I ever have for Fianna Fáil, but I would prefer the former over the latter not on the basis of their election promises - which I regard as being valueless from every party except as a general indicator of priorities - but on the basis of what one might call management style. Thus far, Fine Gael have both lived up to, and lived down to, my expectations.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Good loser

Scofflaw wrote: »

To be honest, I'm amazed anyone even bothers remembering election promises, since I can't think of any government that hasn't been accused of exactly this. I can't say I actually voted #1 for Fine Gael any more than I ever have for Fianna Fáil, but I would prefer the former over the latter not on the basis of their election promises - which I regard as being valueless from every party except as a general indicator of priorities - but on the basis of what one might call management style. Thus far, Fine Gael have both lived up to, and lived down to, my expectations.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Anyone who believes election promises is gullible or stupid or gullible and stupid.

Icepick

Good loser wrote: »

Anyone who believes election promises is gullible or stupid or gullible and stupid.

or an opportunist

Certain people still vote for FF exactly because of what they have been doing.

KyussBishop

Sand wrote: »

The deficit is a matter of spending being greater than revenue. The real standout discrepancy in the Irish fiscal situation is the spending. Interesting you discount spending when it comes to solving the fiscal deficit.

Ireland already tried to tax and spend itself out of a crisis in the 1980s. The 1980s.

It failed then. Its failing now. Cut spending ASAP whilst prioritizing basic front-line services and you'll see a recovery.

If you cut spending, it's the same end-result for the private economy as raised taxes: Less money going into the private economy than is needed.

There is no solution to the economic crisis to come from cutting government spending, or trying to close the deficit; that just makes the crisis worse.

Any policy that will 'solve' the economic crisis, has to solve the problems of unemployment and unsustainable private debt (and the suffering of the people affected, including ending the deaths being caused by current economic policies, and stopping the increase in poverty/homelessness etc.); if a policy makes those problems worse, it is making the economic crisis worse.


So to repeat (and the rest of this is just a generalized comment about economic discourse, not your post), any policy meant to achieve 'recovery', needs to be judged in terms of how it affects: Unemployment, unsustainable debt, public health (including wider effects like deaths caused by economic policies, and effects on physical as well as mental health in general), poverty, homelessness, how it affects peoples future prospects, among more.

It's too commonplace that economic 'recovery' is judged upon (consciously or not) dehumanizing economic variables, that fail to portray the real human impact, on all of the above issues; the economy is supposed to provide for the people in it, so if it's failing to do that and policies are failing to help it do that, they are not achieving recovery.

cosbloodymick

Good loser wrote: »

Anyone who believes election promises is gullible or stupid or gullible and stupid.

How does one decide on who to vote for then if not on the election manifesto's of those running for office?

Mr. teddywinkles

Bullseye1 wrote: »

There is a huge deficit because the public sector bloated significantly during the celtic tiger and wages matched those in the private sector trough benchmarking and through Croke Park. People are paying enough taxes. The government is just spending too much and there are too many people unemployed. The current administration has neglicted the domestic economy and thrown its eggs into the importers basket. 13,600 have been created in exports but 9000 jobs have been lost. Their job creation strategy has been an mitigated disaster.

The good old propaganda machine, well oiled and up and running. :mad:
Most of these jobs created probably due to christmas period.

djpbarry

AltAccount wrote: »

I just wanted to make sure nobody used my presence in the restaurant as an indication that the recession was over!

I don’t know if it’s been pointed out yet, but based on the general definition, Ireland is not actually in recession at the moment – positive economic growth was recorded for Q2 and Q3 2012.

djpbarry

Sand wrote: »

Interesting you discount spending when it comes to solving the fiscal deficit.

It would be interesting, if it were true:

djpbarry wrote: »

Bullseye1 wrote: »

How about you tell us how much in every euro we should pay?

Enough to cover the current deficit, less any cuts that are likely to be imposed in the near future.

djpbarry

cosbloodymick wrote: »

How does one decide on who to vote for then if not on the election manifesto's of those running for office?

By quizzing election candidates when they call to your door (for example) – see if there’s any substance behind what they’re promising.

AlekSmart

Sand wrote: »

There has always been a schizophrenic strategy embedded in Official Ireland's response to the fiscal crisis - NAMA is a clear sign of this. As warned, the imperative of NAMA making a profit has served to prevent a real and sensible process of addressing the debt and rental issues in Ireland. This has been at the cost of ordinary people, but to the benefit of Official Ireland.

Ireland already tried to tax and spend itself out of a crisis in the 1980s. The 1980s.

It failed then. Its failing now. Cut spending ASAP whilst prioritizing basic front-line services and you'll see a recovery.

Yes siree,this entire NAMA gig and the "Thinking" behind it wories me greatly.

Given that a gigantic chunk of causitive factors in "Recession Ireland" were due to inappropriate attitudes relating to ALL property ownership/management issues,I therefore believe that attempting to exit the recession via any property related mechanism is bound to end in tears.

Addressing the Property Debt and Rental issues remain well and truly long-fingered by those who brought us NAMA,as these folks still see Property Development as the hidden-talent of the native Irish !!

Good loser

djpbarry wrote: »

By quizzing election candidates when they call to your door (for example) – see if there’s any substance behind what they’re promising.

No good imo. The crowd at the door are not interested/not competent or in too much of a hurry to debate the big issues. Possible to give them one idea to 'bring further'.

Who to vote for will depend really on TV/radio performances and debates. Generally it will amount to 'I don't like them' or 'I prefer those'. The broad picture rather than the detail of promises.

People should be elected for their character and opinions rather than their 'promises'. Their ability to persuade others, or wield power, alliances, pacts, tradeoffs etc will decide what policies are implemented.

Good loser

KyussBishop wrote: »

If you cut spending, it's the same end-result for the private economy as raised taxes: Less money going into the private economy than is needed.

There is no solution to the economic crisis to come from cutting government spending, or trying to close the deficit; that just makes the crisis worse.

Any policy that will 'solve' the economic crisis, has to solve the problems of unemployment and unsustainable private debt (and the suffering of the people affected, including ending the deaths being caused by current economic policies, and stopping the increase in poverty/homelessness etc.); if a policy makes those problems worse, it is making the economic crisis worse.

So to repeat (and the rest of this is just a generalized comment about economic discourse, not your post), any policy meant to achieve 'recovery', needs to be judged in terms of how it affects: Unemployment, unsustainable debt, public health (including wider effects like deaths caused by economic policies, and effects on physical as well as mental health in general), poverty, homelessness, how it affects peoples future prospects, among more.

It's too commonplace that economic 'recovery' is judged upon (consciously or not) dehumanizing economic variables, that fail to portray the real human impact, on all of the above issues; the economy is supposed to provide for the people in it, so if it's failing to do that and policies are failing to help it do that, they are not achieving recovery.

'Cutting government spending and trying to close the deficit will make the crisis worse'. That's garbage. In the 2011 budget both of these were implemented and the crisis has diminished ; note the huge fall in the cost of borrowing over 12 months. The 2012 budget is doing the same thing and, I expect, the result will be the same.

The Govt is not an efficient spender of money.

AltAccount

djpbarry wrote: »

I don’t know if it’s been pointed out yet, but based on the general definition, Ireland is not actually in recession at the moment – positive economic growth was recorded for Q2 and Q3 2012.

It has AFAIK, but I'm just using the phrase in the context of the OP's post.

cosbloodymick

djpbarry wrote: »

By quizzing election candidates when they call to your door (for example) – see if there’s any substance behind what they’re promising.

But according to other posters if you believe what they are telling you, you are gullible or stupid, or both.
My point is that the only way you can decide on which candidate to vote for is by what the candidate declares his policies to be.
If none of the candidates can be believed then how are you supposed to make that decision?

Icepick

beaner88 wrote: »

Not really. Income taxes and VAT.

VAT actually collects more than income tax. There are also excise, stamp duty, motor tax, TV licence...

beaner88 wrote: »

I don't buy the analysis that says welfare receipients pay tax because of the vat on their spend.

I am not talking about people whose primary income comes from welfare. You said "the vast majority of people."

Silentcorner

djpbarry wrote: »

I don’t know if it’s been pointed out yet, but based on the general definition, Ireland is not actually in recession at the moment – positive economic growth was recorded for Q2 and Q3 2012.

Are you referring to GNP or GDP or both?

Silentcorner

djpbarry wrote: »

By quizzing election candidates when they call to your door (for example) – see if there’s any substance behind what they’re promising.

The only problem with that is that politicians don't want to spend any more than 15/30 seconds on your doorstep, they are only interested in seeing the electorate, they are not interested in engaging every voter they meet, anybody who has ever been on a canvass will know what I mean....remember they are chasing transfers as well as No 1s.

darkhorse

cosbloodymick wrote: »

How does one decide on who to vote for then if not on the election manifesto's of those running for office?

What about these guys, if they stand. Can't be any worse.

New political party 'Direct Democracy Ireland' launched in Dublin

djpbarry

Good loser wrote: »

No good imo. The crowd at the door are not interested/not competent or in too much of a hurry to debate the big issues.

How do you suppose their election manifestos are compiled? They don’t pull that stuff out of thin air.

djpbarry

AltAccount wrote: »

It has AFAIK, but I'm just using the phrase in the context of the OP's post.

Fair enough, but I do find it irritating that the word is bandied about so often it has literally lost all meaning.

djpbarry

cosbloodymick wrote: »

But according to other posters if you believe what they are telling you, you are gullible or stupid, or both.

But it shouldn’t be about “belief”, it should be about common sense. For example (and this is an example I’ve been trotting out a lot lately), if a Labour candidate had said to me before the last general election that a reintroduction of third-level fees was completely out of the question, the first question that would come to my mind would have been “so how do you intend to fund third-level education?”

Belief doesn’t come into it.

djpbarry

Silentcorner wrote: »

Are you referring to GNP or GDP or both?

GDP, but GNP has been on a general upward trend over the last 3 years, albeit a pretty erratic one.

Silentcorner wrote: »

The only problem with that is that politicians don't want to spend any more than 15/30 seconds on your doorstep...

Honestly, that’s not my experience at all. I remember having both Richard Bruton and Brody Sweeney at my door in Killester for 5 – 10 minutes each. Likewise, any time I’ve written to TD’s, I’ve almost always received a proper response. I’ve even had questions raised in the Dáil on my behalf. It’s really not that difficult - TD’s will literally jump through hoops to secure votes.

Silentcorner wrote: »

they are only interested in seeing the electorate, they are not interested in engaging every voter they meet, anybody who has ever been on a canvass will know what I mean....remember they are chasing transfers as well as No 1s.

And who do you suppose is going to secure the most transfers/No 1s? The guy who has taken absolutely no time to speak to anyone, or the guy who people have heard always has an open door at his/her constituency office?

darkhorse

djpbarry wrote: »

How do you suppose their election manifestos are compiled?

With Lies.

KyussBishop

Good loser wrote: »

'Cutting government spending and trying to close the deficit will make the crisis worse'. That's garbage. In the 2011 budget both of these were implemented and the crisis has diminished

Okey lets see:

No, that's not looking so good.

Good loser wrote: »

note the huge fall in the cost of borrowing over 12 months. The 2012 budget is doing the same thing and, I expect, the result will be the same.

The Govt is not an efficient spender of money.

Business getting to see much benefit from that?

Doesn't look it.

Banks aren't exactly doing a very efficient job of getting money into the economy, and with the general population motivated into saving rather than spending, it looks like government is exactly the most efficient way to spend money, to pump up the economy.

Mr. teddywinkles

Madam_X wrote: »

Two sides to the coin: people who go on as if Ireland is like Albania, and people who think because they and a lot of people are fine, nobody is struggling and anyone on the dole is a scrounger with numerous other options. Both groups are dumb.

Maybe this is the problem.
Why do we have people starting careers in various jobs and professions on lower rates of pay than people did say just 5 years ago. Should the clue be found there maybe.

JOB93

darkhorse wrote: »

What about these guys, if they stand. Can't be any worse.

New political party 'Direct Democracy Ireland' launched in Dublin

I like the fact that new parties are being set up to take down the old guard but I'm not too keen on this one. They say they want to create “realistic economic choices” based on public debate and transparent policies. Is the public the best decision-maker on economic policies? Lack of knowledge regarding economic principles and bias could mean the public makes bad decisions. For example, the Students Union of Ireland is looking to abolish 3rd level fees at the moment but as an economics student I know that is out of the question given our current fiscal constraints, but if it was up to them they would do it anyway, bad decision or not.

FreudianSlippers

Godge wrote: »

you are missing the point.

82% of households in Ireland have pay television. The equivalent figure for the UK is 50%. Ireland is well above the average for the EU in terms of pay tv subscribers. Yet Irish people expect pay television as part of their standard of living. It is an adjustment in that expectation that is needed.

That's exactly it: the problem is the entitlement culture. You can't cut social welfare and child benefit! Why? I'm entitled to it! But why?

This is a voluntary assistance programme to assist people who could use extra money. Not a fundamental right

Maura74

djpbarry wrote: »

But it shouldn’t be about “belief”, it should be about common sense. For example (and this is an example I’ve been trotting out a lot lately), if a Labour candidate had said to me before the last general election that a reintroduction of third-level fees was completely out of the question, the first question that would come to my mind would have been “so how do you intend to fund third-level education?”

Belief doesn’t come into it.

The problem is that sense is not 'common' in the land of politician or in the land of any government that are on large salaries these politicians do not have a clue how the rest of us survive.