Ante post Cheltenham

jimjamcos

jimjamcos wrote: »

What exactly went against him last year?

Snap! Just beaten for toe on this occasion.

Before someone starts talking about Ruby, I bothered to watch the race again the other night. He's two lengths down 3 out with Ruby getting to work. He finishes about 5+ lengths down with ROR going away.

He was beaten, some people need to get over it.

ft9

jimjamcos wrote: »

What exactly went against him last year?

For a start, Ruby and Mullins said they were never completely satisfied with him, that he was not in the same form as the previous year.

Secondly, Ruby and McCoy settled too far off the blistering pace that was set, both keeping an eye on each other as if it was a two horse race.

Thirdly, I think a softer surface would play to his strengths much more than the good ground they got. His speed on soft ground is frightening.

jimjamcos

RichieLawless wrote: »

For a start, Ruby and Mullins said they were never completely satisfied with him, that he was not in the same form as the previous year.

Secondly, Ruby and McCoy settled too far off the blistering pace that was set, both keeping an eye on each other as if it was a two horse race.

Thirdly, I think a softer surface would play to his strengths much more than the good ground they got. His speed on soft ground is frightening.

1. As far as never being completely satisfied with him, here's an interview with Willie uploaded on 16th Feb last year. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpcPjqb4o0g Seemed pretty happy with him at that stage..


2. Binocular and HF couldn't handle the pace. As Orinoco said, HF was close enough if good enough on day.

3. You can hardly be stating that good ground (the usual for Cheltenham) was part of "everything going against him last year" surely? Yes, his turn of foot on soft ground is brilliant but on good ground with a relentless gallop it's of no use to him.

ft9

jimjamcos wrote: »

1. As far as never being completely satisfied with him, here's an interview with Willie uploaded on 16th Feb last year. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpcPjqb4o0g Seemed pretty happy with him at that stage..


2. Binocular and HF couldn't handle the pace. As Orinoco said, HF was close enough if good enough on day.

3. You can hardly be stating that good ground (the usual for Cheltenham) was part of "everything going against him last year" surely? Yes, his turn of foot on soft ground is brilliant but on good ground with a relentless gallop it's of no use to him.

That's Mullins all over for you. He's said he wasn't happy with him also, and so did Ruby. Everyone knows this, I am not going looking for interviews to link you to.

They misjudged the pace imo, nothing to do with not being able to handle it.

Yes it is a factor that went against his strengths.

It's the beauty of horse racing, jimjam, it is a game of opinions, neither of us will ever be proven wrong or right.

premierstone

jimjamcos wrote: »

What exactly went against him last year?

Deleted User wrote: »

What went against him?

jimjamcos wrote: »

1. As far as never being completely satisfied with him, here's an interview with Willie uploaded on 16th Feb last year. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpcPjqb4o0g Seemed pretty happy with him at that stage..


2. Binocular and HF couldn't handle the pace. As Orinoco said, HF was close enough if good enough on day.

3. You can hardly be stating that good ground (the usual for Cheltenham) was part of "everything going against him last year" surely? Yes, his turn of foot on soft ground is brilliant but on good ground with a relentless gallop it's of no use to him.

Richie has pretty muched answered all your questions here. Also good ground - even though it wont be good - is not a problem, check he's two Rabo wins.

Also I'd love to hear who people think will set the breakneck pace we saw last year?? Firstly I don't think it will happen and secondly if it does I'm sure someone as capable as Ruby won't be caught as badly again.

RichieLawless

RichieLawless wrote: »

That's Mullins all over for you. He's said he wasn't happy with him also, and so did Ruby. Everyone knows this, I am not going looking for interviews to link you to.

They misjudged the pace imo, nothing to do with not being able to handle it.

Yes it is a factor that went against his strengths.

It's the beauty of horse racing, jimjam, it is a game of opinions, neither of us will ever be proven wrong or right.

Talking about it is half the fun.... I would be delighted to be proved wrong this year BUT:

- there were never any negative vibes about HF last year. None. I backed him, half the country backed him, he went off a 4/6 fav and was the banker of day one. And now we are told he wasn't right? I'm just not having that, sorry.

- WRT being too far off the pace. Never having that either. There was nothing unusual in where Ruby settled him, nothing in the commentary suggests a moment's belief that he's in difficulty or should be closer up. 3 out he's in prime position to go on and - nothing much happens. At that point Ruby is working. He's not sitting watching AP whilst ROR opens up a 5 length lead. He's trying to get on terms.

- WRT the ground, yes I suppose that he has less of an edge on good to soft but what else do you expect at Cheltenham for the CH? If the weather keeps up and it looks like a genuine soft ground festival then 7/2 might look tempting. Sure.

ft9

premierstone wrote: »

Richie has pretty muched answered all your questions here. Also good ground - even though it wont be good - is not a problem, check he's two Rabo wins.

Also I'd love to hear who people think will set the breakneck pace we saw last year?? Firstly I don't think it will happen and secondly if it does I'm sure someone as capable as Ruby won't be caught as badly again.

Just to clarify that I'm not saying I would dismiss him on good ground, it's just that I think softer ground suits him best.

Also to clarify I am not saying he will win next year, i'm just discussing last years race and why I felt he didn't win, and that I think he was the best horse in the race.

ft9

Deleted User wrote: »

Talking about it is half the fun.... I would be delighted to be proved wrong this year BUT:

- there were never any negative vibes about HF last year. None. I backed him, half the country backed him, he went off a 4/6 fav and was the banker of day one. And now we are told he wasn't right? I'm just not having that, sorry.

- WRT being too far off the pace. Never having that either. There was nothing unusual in where Ruby settled him, nothing in the commentary suggests a moment's belief that he's in difficulty or should be closer up. 3 out he's in prime position to go on and - nothing much happens. At that point Ruby is working. He's not sitting watching AP whilst ROR opens up a 5 length lead. He's trying to get on terms.

- WRT the ground, yes I suppose that he has less of an edge on good to soft but what else do you expect at Cheltenham for the CH? If the weather keeps up and it looks like a genuine soft ground festival then 7/2 might look tempting. Sure.

Yes talking about it is half the fun and it's nice to be able to have a chat about a topic on here without people getting nasty for a change.

Yes, where he settled him seemed normal, but my point is that the pace they went at seemed very fast to me, and had Ruby judged it a little better I'm sure he would have liked to be a lot closer.

As far as I remember HF weaved up through the field in the latter stages of the race to get into contention, the effort that would have taken out of the horse at the speed they were travelling must have been huge.

I don't agree with people who say he couldn't handle the pace as he has a very high cruising speed, to be it was all about misjudging the pace.
Ground is no excuse really, i'm just of the opinion softer will suit him better.

And looking at his win at the Punchestown festival, he did not look anywhere near his best to me. As Ruby said that day, all was not right, but his class won it for him.

Hulk Hands

What's the best performance HF ever put up? When he demolished a good field at Punchestown the year he won the champion hurdle. That was the last run of a perfect uninterrupted season where he got better with each run.

The year before, he had an interrupted season and was all out to beat Solwhit. The year after, uninterrupted season and he wasn't himself at Cheltenham or at Punchestown. He gets better with each run in a season. A messy season won't see him to full effect.

And before anyone mentions his comeback run in Jan 2011, there's no eveidence that he was right there either. Unaccompanied ran a shocker and he beat TS as usual, who himself was in poor form at the time

RichieLawless

RichieLawless wrote: »

Yes talking about it is half the fun and it's nice to be able to have a chat about a topic on here without people getting nasty for a change.

Yes, where he settled him seemed normal, but my point is that the pace they went at seemed very fast to me, and had Ruby judged it a little better I'm sure he would have liked to be a lot closer.

As far as I remember HF weaved up through the field in the latter stages of the race to get into contention, the effort that would have taken out of the horse at the speed they were travelling must have been huge.

I don't agree with people who say he couldn't handle the pace as he has a very high cruising speed, to be it was all about misjudging the pace.
Ground is no excuse really, i'm just of the opinion softer will suit him better.

And looking at his win at the Punchestown festival, he did not look anywhere near his best to me. As Ruby said that day, all was not right, but his class won it for him.

i said it before, i really think its unfair on ror and connections to not give it the credit it was due. not just on here, but people all over try to find excuses for hf last year, ror won the race on merit, no question. there cant be excuses for all the fancied horses.ror was the best on the day and good luck to all the connections. btw, i backed hf myself last year.

Hulk Hands

droidman123 wrote: »

i said it before, i really think its unfair on ror and connections to not give it the credit it was due. not just on here, but people all over try to find excuses for hf last year, ror won the race on merit, no question. there cant be excuses for all the fancied horses.ror was the best on the day and good luck to all the connections. btw, i backed hf myself last year.

Nobody is making excuses for anyone else. No other horse had an excuse bar possibly Zarkandar. Take HF out of the race and it was a normal Champion Hurdle with a decent winner. Rock on Ruby deserves credit.

But having seen HF scoot home in countless Grade 1's and hammer good horses, it's hard to accept that he's not good enough to beat Overturn, or just barely beat Binocular who he hammered less than a year earlier. Maybe some people will turn the blind eye to all those good races HF won, and use his one bad run as proof that he's limited. The rest of us are willing to forgive one bad run, so we believe the best horse was in 3rd. So RoR won't get the credit as being the best horse in the eyes of many

SRFC

Did Ruby not say he was never travelling in the race and didnt feel right after a few furlongs not his usual self?? Id take the jockeys opinion over any form student opinion any day of the week.



Clearly wasnt himself either at Punchestown id write last season off tbh.

klairondavis

Deleted User wrote: »

Talking about it is half the fun.... I would be delighted to be proved wrong this year BUT:

- there were never any negative vibes about HF last year. None. I backed him, half the country backed him, he went off a 4/6 fav and was the banker of day one. And now we are told he wasn't right? I'm just not having that, sorry.

While there may have been no negative vibes in terms of quotes from connections (who don't give much away at the best of times), surely the fact that he didn't appear until Leopardstown in January and went for a complete walk in the market that day was a major negative vibe? If Mullins had have been happy with him last year he would have ran more often like he has this year. The year he won at Cheltenham he ran in the Hatton's Grace, at Leopardstown twice, at Cheltenham and at Punchestown and he improved with each race. The horse needs racing IMO and it's a good sign for his supporters that he has been busy this season. I think it's a sign that they are a lot happier with him now than they were this time last year when he was holed up in his box down in Carlow.

Hulk Hands

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Nobody is making excuses for anyone else. No other horse had an excuse bar possibly Zarkandar. Take HF out of the race and it was a normal Champion Hurdle with a decent winner. Rock on Ruby deserves credit.

But having seen HF scoot home in countless Grade 1's and hammer good horses, it's hard to accept that he's not good enough to beat Overturn, or just barely beat Binocular who he hammered less than a year earlier. Maybe some people will turn the blind eye to all those good races HF won, and use his one bad run as proof that he's limited. The rest of us are willing to forgive one bad run, so we believe the best horse was in 3rd. So RoR won't get the credit as being the best horse in the eyes of many

dont get me wrong, i know what a great horse hf is. but i was just making the point,say if i owned ror and all i heard was excuses for hf last year i would be offended. all i,m saying is ror was the best horse on the day and won the ch with full merit.

ste2010

I think whispering gallery is an interesting one for the supreme. Can be got at 189-1 on betfair right now. I'm guessing if the supreme is the target hell be running over hurdles again within the next 2-3 weeks. He is on my short list with 5 others. Continuing to whittle. By all accounts puffin billy is the one who interests me the most but still question marks over where he goes

rossom

With regards to Hurricane Fly, nobody could have gotten him to win the Champion Hurdle last year. He just didn't pick up in the manner he has before. Simple as that.

I do, however, feel that his interrupted progress last (least not forget he only had 1 run before Cheltenham last season) definitely meant he didn't go there the same horse as the year before.

There will be absolutely no complaints about his finishing position on the day this year as he's had an ideal preparation this year and I definitely think he will be better conditioned on the day. Is he up to it at 9 years of ages? He could very well be and I will be quite surprised if he is out of the frame.

He is an over-hyped horse though. That is not to knock him in the slightest as I think he is an excellent, excellent horse but people seem to think he is invincible. Rock On Ruby was comfortably the best horse on the day last year (if anyone says otherwise they are deluded) although I am struggling to see him repeating that feat. For me it all comes down to whether or not he is the same horse seen in 2011 at age 9. He could easily be but you can't judge him on comprehensively beating the same horses over and over again as he is on a different level to his Irish opponents. At 7/2, however, I am not willing to back him to find out.

rossom

ste2010 wrote: »

I think whispering gallery is an interesting one for the supreme. Can be got at 189-1 on betfair right now. I'm guessing if the supreme is the target hell be running over hurdles again within the next 2-3 weeks. He is on my short list with 5 others. Continuing to whittle. By all accounts puffin billy is the one who interests me the most but still question marks over where he goes

His definite first preference is the Neptune at the moment. If it comes up proper soft ground I'd say he'll end up in the Supreme.

beaker1

in last weeks weekender puffin billys trainer says, so far hes been running on ground with plenty of give which brings his stamina into play and i am leaning towards aiming him at the neptune rather than the supreme,im sure he will get the longer trip and be comfortable at that speed before quickening ,whereas im concerned they might get him at it too soon in the supreme hes also says he could be as good as large action ,artic call and the west awake [ still the only horse to win the rsa hurdle and rsa chase in successive seasons] or even better than them

SRFC

beaker1 wrote: »

in last weeks weekender puffin billys trainer says, so far hes been running on ground with plenty of give which brings his stamina into play and i am leaning towards aiming him at the neptune rather than the supreme,im sure he will get the longer trip and be comfortable at that speed before quickening ,whereas im concerned they might get him at it too soon in the supreme hes also says he could be as good as large action ,artic call and the west awake [ still the only horse to win the rsa hurdle and rsa chase in successive seasons] or even better than them

Runs the weekend against The new one and coneygree expecting the new one to smash him.

Gringo180

Baffling that some people just cant accept HF just wasnt good enough last year to beat ROR or Overturn, 2 top class hurdlers on there day, whats to say HF is better than these horses?? Facile wins in false run races in Ireland in bottomless ground?? Give over, dont get me wrong HF is a very good horse but nowhere near as good as some people make him out to be, hes no Istabraq!

SRFC

Gringo180 wrote: »

Baffling that some people just cant accept HF just wasnt good enough last year to beat ROR or Overturn, 2 top class hurdlers on there day, whats to say HF is better than these horses?? Facile wins in false run races in Ireland in bottomless ground?? Give over, dont get me wrong HF is a very good horse but nowhere near as good as some people make him out to be, hes no Istabraq!

Could you please name an other 13 time grade one + champion hurdle winner who has lost just twice under national hunt rules in the CH?

mdwexford

Gringo180 wrote: »

Baffling that some people just cant accept HF just wasnt good enough last year to beat ROR or Overturn, 2 top class hurdlers on there day, whats to say HF is better than these horses?? Facile wins in false run races in Ireland in bottomless ground?? Give over, dont get me wrong HF is a very good horse but nowhere near as good as some people make him out to be, hes no Istabraq!

I'm not the biggest HF fan but its pretty clear he's better than Overturn.

Was going to write more but decided not to, the above is enough.

Gringo180

SRFC wrote: »

Could you please name an other 13 time grade one + champion hurdle winner who has lost just twice under national hunt rules in the CH?

He hasnt really beat any top class hurdlers tho has he, his champion hurdle win is his best form to date I reckon. His last 3 wins were against unaccompanied, captain cee bee and zaidpour hardly top class animals are they, hes also beat the same horses over and over again, solwit 4 times if I remember correctly. I just think hes over rated in a poor era for hurdlers in Ireland. The way some people go on youd think he was the best hurdler ever.

SRFC

Gringo180 wrote: »

He hasnt really beat any top class hurdlers tho has he, his champion hurdle win is his best form to date I reckon. His last 3 wins were against unaccompanied, captain cee bee and zaidpour hardly top class animals are they, hes also beat the same horses over and over again, solwit 4 times if I remember correctly. I just think hes over rated in a poor era for hurdlers in Ireland. The way some people go on youd think he was the best hurdler ever.

How many grade ones have Solwhit won?thousand star the french champion hurdler winner and placed in grade ones,captain cee bee grade one winner,zaidpour grade one winner,unaccompanied a grade one winner.


Your arguement is shot to piece's mate nobody has said hes the best ever but hes the best for the past 3 years.

Gringo180

SRFC wrote: »

How many grade ones have Solwhit won?thousand star the french champion hurdler winner and placed in grade ones,captain cee bee grade one winner,zaidpour grade one winner,unaccompanied a grade one winner.


Your arguement is shot to piece's mate nobody has said hes the best ever but hes the best for the past 3 years.

Captain Cee Bee is a 13 year old for jaysus sake... My argument will stand up when HF gets beat again come March, thats all im saying he wont win the Champion Hurdle ive no doubt about that.

SRFC

Gringo180 wrote: »

Captain Cee Bee is a 13 year old for jaysus sake... My argument will stand up when HF gets beat again come March, thats all im saying he wont win the Champion Hurdle ive no doubt about that.

Captain cee bee didnt look too old or slow to me when he destroyed galway hurdle winner Rebel fitz by 11 lengths a few months ago in Tipperary

Gringo180

SRFC wrote: »

Captain cee bee didnt look too old or slow to me when he destroyed galway hurdle winner Rebel fitz by 11 lengths a few months ago in Tipperary

With Thousand Stars a further 20 lenghts back in 4th which would back up my claim that you couldnt take some of the Irish form too seriously. Slowly run races in bottomless ground that turns into a sprint 4 out?? Thats not a proper race to me.

SRFC

Gringo180 wrote: »

With Thousand Stars a further 20 lenghts back in 4th which would back up my claim that you couldnt take some of the Irish form too seriously. Slowly run races in bottomless ground that turns into a sprint 4 out?? Thats not a proper race to me.

Cant all have ran bad behind him though,TS needed the run that day wasnt half fit if I remember correctly,rebel fitz had no excuse though,think youre writing HF off with poor reasons you cant nit pick his form as I said above all these animals are grade one horses he destroys rock on ruby has run twice since the CH an been beaten,so what you fancying to beat the fly or you just blindly laying him?

Gringo180

SRFC wrote: »

Cant all have ran bad behind him though,TS needed the run that day wasnt half fit if I remember correctly,rebel fitz had no excuse though,think youre writing HF off with poor reasons you cant nit pick his form as I said above all these animals are grade one horses he destroys rock on ruby has run twice since the CH an been beaten,so what you fancying to beat the fly or you just blindly laying him?

Im backing him because he loves it around Chelthenham and the way he stormed clear up the hill last year and won going away was impressive, factor un his price of 8/1 and I think he is well worth a bet at that price as I like a bit of value. I wouldnt look too much into his last run, that was just to blow the cobwebs off I reckon 1 more run and he will be cherry ripe for Chelthenham.

jimjamcos

Gringo180 wrote: »

Captain Cee Bee is a 13 year old for jaysus sake... My argument will stand up when HF gets beat again come March, thats all im saying he wont win the Champion Hurdle ive no doubt about that.

In fairness, he's an almost unbeatable horse when it comes to racing in Ireland. I wouldn't bet against him regardless of who he faced here! Solwhit is a fine animal...just ask Davy Russell about his frustrations looking at his arse over the years and I think that's why he's got such admiration for 'The Fly' (why else would anyone risk buying John McCririck dinner ). Go Native was also a super horse!

My only beef with HF is people building him up to be absolutely unbeatable (bar injury, something being wrong with him etc etc etc) when his form is totally one dimensional. Overturn, a superb horse, had every right to improve coming up to 2012 Champion Hurdle given its form (some shrewd people tipped it in various markets) and so did ROR for the good ground and fast pace.

Hurricane Fly's only chance is a soft (Irish ) festival in my opinion.

rossom

The Grade 1s Hurricane Fly wins over here are absolute non-contests as he is an absolute country mile ahead of the opposition. He could win won of those races every week if he needed to. The only true test he gets every season is the Champion Hurdle where he won one impressively in 2011 and wasn't the same horse last year finishing 3rd which I would put down to an interrupted preparation. We'll find out this season with a prime preparation if, at 9 years of age, he is still the horse that won in 2011.

rossom

jimjamcos wrote: »

In fairness, he's an almost unbeatable horse when it comes to racing in Ireland. I wouldn't bet against him regardless of who he faced here! Solwhit is a fine animal...just ask Davy Russell about his frustrations looking at his arse over the years and I think that's why he's got such admiration for 'The Fly' (why else would anyone risk buying John McCririck dinner ). Go Native was also a super horse!

My only beef with HF is people building him up to be absolutely unbeatable (bar injury, something being wrong with him etc etc etc) when his form is totally one dimensional. Overturn, a superb horse, had every right to improve coming up to 2012 Champion Hurdle given its form (some shrewd people tipped it in various markets) and so did ROR for the good ground and fast pace.

Hurricane Fly's only chance is a soft (Irish ) festival in my opinion.

100% agree. Not saying he won't or can't win but him running certainly isn't a formality.

I'd disagree about his only chance being on soft (although if it comes up soft it will obviously be a massive advantage to him).

I see him as the most likely winner but effectively what you are doing is backing him at 7/2 in the belief that, at 9 years of age, he is back to the level of 2011. If not (unless this is a distinctly average Champion Hurdle which it could turn out to be) he won't be winning.

At 7/2 I think he is too short to take that risk.

premierstone

Gringo180 wrote: »

Baffling that some people just cant accept HF just wasnt good enough last year to beat ROR or Overturn, 2 top class hurdlers on there day, whats to say HF is better than these horses?? Facile wins in false run races in Ireland in bottomless ground?? Give over, dont get me wrong HF is a very good horse but nowhere near as good as some people make him out to be, hes no Istabraq!

Not sure if serious???

And I suggest you review he's runs in Ireland again I suspect you have never seen half of them or have merely forgotten them.

If they all turn up 100% and at the peak of their powers and we get a true run race with no hard luck stories, anyone who doesn't think The Fly will win is deluded and probably broke!

premierstone

jimjamcos wrote: »

Hurricane Fly's only chance is a soft (Irish ) festival in my opinion.

He is 5 from 5 on Good ground and he's three best performances have come on Good ground.

mdwexford

premierstone wrote: »

He is 5 from 5 on Good ground and he's three best performances have come on Good ground.

I think it's more the fact that soft ground would inconvinence some of the others and blunt their speed whereas he performs at his best on any surface really.

It is up for debate what his best performances have been also.

jimjamcos

premierstone wrote: »

He is 5 from 5 on Good ground and he's three best performances have come on Good ground.

Last years Champion Hurdle was on good ground so how is he 5/5 on it?

prettyboy81

If by any chance Hurricane Fly touch's 4/1 with any of the bookmakers before the festival then he will be the perfect e/w shot to nothing. Unlikely, we will see him at 4/1 but you never know especially with a few trials coming over the next few weeks.

premierstone

jimjamcos wrote: »

Last years Champion Hurdle was on good ground so how is he 5/5 on it?

It wasn't it was on Good to Soft.

mdwexford wrote: »

I think it's more the fact that soft ground would inconvinence some of the others and blunt their speed whereas he performs at his best on any surface really.

It is up for debate what his best performances have been also.

Agreed on the first sentence.

Personally I would say he's three best were the '11 Champion and he's two Rabo's - certainly the races with the most depth to them and I think he improves as the season goes on - all three were on genuinely good ground.

ft9

Twas good, good to soft in places as far as I remember.

Harry Angstrom

Am I right in saying that Hurricane Fly looked edgy going down to the start before last year's Champion Hurdle? I was watching it in a bookies so I didn't get to see much of the pre-race build up. I know he's a Montjeu, but in an ideal world I'd prefer to see how Hurricane Fly behaves in the preliminaries at Cheltenham before I'd be having a decent bet on him.

jimjamcos

ft9 wrote: »

Twas good, good to soft in places as far as I remember.

Correct!

Johner

premierstone wrote: »

It wasn't it was on Good to Soft.



Agreed on the first sentence.

Personally I would say he's three best were the '11 Champion and he's two Rabo's - certainly the races with the most depth to them and I think he improves as the season goes on - all three were on genuinely good ground.

The ground was Good last year. Good to soft in places. As was the year he won it.

dicky dunne

Currently have two ante post ew doubles going - Jezki @10/1 for the Supreme (before the Royal Bond) and Overturn @ 8/1 for the Arkle, Rule the World @ 10/1 for the Neptune and Aupcharlie @ 10/1 for the Jewson

Really fancy aupcharlie. I think a fast run race over the slightly shorter distance then he has been racing the last two times will suit him down to the ground, jumps and travels really well and i can see him being produced at the last fence and hopefully seeing his race out

jimjamcos

dicky dunne wrote: »

Currently have two ante post ew doubles going - Jezki @10/1 for the Supreme (before the Royal Bond) and Overturn @ 8/1 for the Arkle, Rule the World @ 10/1 for the Neptune and Aupcharlie @ 10/1 for the Jewson

Really fancy aupcharlie. I think a fast run race over the slightly shorter distance then he has been racing the last two times will suit him down to the ground, jumps and travels really well and i can see him being produced at the last fence and hopefully seeing his race out

Fair play, the first one's a nice double...you'd have to be dissapointed if both didn't at least place for you! Agree with you about Aupcharlie, if he turns up there he'd have a chance but I expect Captain Conan to run in Jewson and be hard to beat.

dicky dunne

jimjamcos wrote: »

Fair play, the first one's a nice double...you'd have to be dissapointed if both didn't at least place for you! Agree with you about Aupcharlie, if he turns up there he'd have a chance but I expect Captain Conan to run in Jewson and be hard to beat.

looks good at the mintue but still a lot could still go wrong between now and then, i was looking at the Jewson the other day again and i feel the likes of Arvika and Fago will go to the Arkle, Captain Conan will be hard to beat though on all known form

premierstone

ft9 wrote: »

Twas good, good to soft in places as far as I remember.

jimjamcos wrote: »

Correct!

Johner wrote: »

The ground was Good last year. Good to soft in places. As was the year he won it.

My recollection was it was officially good to soft last year, and both the Racingpost and Sportinglife support this?

It's a moot point anyway, it was not the ground that beat the horse, simple as.

ft9

premierstone wrote: »

My recollection was it was officially good to soft last year, and both the Racingpost and Sportinglife support this?

It's a moot point anyway, it was not the ground that beat the horse, simple as.

I don't think people are saying it did.

I just checked the result on racingpost.com there now and that is showing it as good. http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=545629&r_date=2012-03-13&popup=yes#results_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

premierstone

ft9 wrote: »

I don't think people are saying it did.

I just checked the result on racingpost.com there now and that is showing it as good. http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=545629&r_date=2012-03-13&popup=yes#results_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

My bad looks like I cant even read results now

And it was said here that the only way HF could win was if it was on soft to heavy ground, which is very wide of the mark.

Hulk Hands

Gringo180 wrote: »

Baffling that some people just cant accept HF just wasnt good enough last year to beat ROR or Overturn, 2 top class hurdlers on there day, whats to say HF is better than these horses?? Facile wins in false run races in Ireland in bottomless ground?? Give over, dont get me wrong HF is a very good horse but nowhere near as good as some people make him out to be, hes no Istabraq!

On a line through Bincoular's xmas hurdle, 3 months before that race, he has the beating of both. Also he beat Overturn 16l the year previous. And no, hammering Go Native, Solwhit, Binocular, Menorah and Thousand Stars are not facile wins in facile races.

Gringo180 wrote: »

Captain Cee Bee is a 13 year old for jaysus sake... My argument will stand up when HF gets beat again come March, thats all im saying he wont win the Champion Hurdle ive no doubt about that.

Really sticking your neck out there on that 2/7 shot

klairondavis

Hulk Hands wrote: »

On a line through Bincoular's xmas hurdle, 3 months before that race, he has the beating of both. Also he beat Overturn 16l the year previous. And no, hammering Go Native, Solwhit, Binocular, Menorah and Thousand Stars are not facile wins in facile races.

That's the key point for me. People can pick holes in some of the horses Hurricane Fly has beaten but he has really thrashed some of the horses listed above on different occasions. It's not the horses he beats, it's the manner in which he beat them. The way he beat Go Native before that horse went on to win a Supreme Novices was something special. I will probably end up backing him this year if he gets there safe and sound but I can understand why some people want to be against him. To say that he needs soft ground or that he has only ever beaten moderate hurdlers is utter nonsense though. He has hammered good horses in several of his outings on different ground.