Gold Cup 2013

ste2010

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Yep and he's far from near perfect, along with Long Run, and even Tidal Bay on occasion. The Giant Bolster doesn't have Speed and Long Runs speed is questionable.

They seemed well able for it last year and LR the year before..what I should probably have emphasised more was the stamina question..this is what is supporting my point which FL is the focus of..of all the horses in the race and I mean this..I would love to see FL win given the performances he had put in over the past year without winning anything... but he won't be carrying my money..have a look at the replays of the last 4 races again and focus on stamina and see if it changes your mind. If the Lexus had of been an extra 20 yards SDC would have won. He blew it with his jumping

Hulk Hands

ste2010 wrote: »

They seemed well able for it last year and LR the year before..what I should probably have emphasised more was the stamina question..this is what is supporting my point which FL is the focus of..of all the horses in the race and I mean this..I would love to see FL win given the performances he had put in over the past year without winning anything... but he won't be carrying my money..have a look at the replays of the last 4 races again and focus on stamina and see if it changes your mind. If the Lexus had of been an extra 20 yards SDC would have won. He blew it with his jumping

I'm wasn't talking about Fl though, I was picking up on your point about the 3 attributes. I'm not huge on FL myself, my defense of him is more to do with being puzzled as to why he's double the price of Sir De Champs, who I don't think deserves to be a general 6/1. I think FL has a good chance of staying based on his Hennessy run and the prospect of better ground, but I doubt i'll be backing unless he is indeed 14's on the day. At this stage, i'll be on Bob's Worth if he's bigger than 5/2 and laying SDC if he's shorter than 4's. A long way to go however

jimjamcos

Reading over on Betfair forum that Last Instalment is out for season again. Dunno how true source is but shame if so!

Nulty

jimjamcos wrote: »

Reading over on Betfair forum that Last Instalment is out for season again. Dunno how true source is but shame if so!

I believe the price on Betfair rather than the gossip and he's 15.5 to back. I hope it's not true cause i've got some ew money on him but I doubt it until the price or the news confirms it.

jimjamcos

Nulty wrote: »

I believe the price on Betfair rather than the gossip and he's 15.5 to back. I hope it's not true cause i've got some ew money on him but I doubt it until the price or the news confirms it.

Hopefully you're right. Would love to see him come March!

hucklebuck

Hulk Hands wrote: »

No they don't. Only Bobs Worth has all 3 of those traits and it's even at a push to say he has speed. FL nearly stayed out 3 1/4 miles in a Hennessy and will encounter much better ground when attempting to do so in March

What I am taking from Ste's post is they are all likely to jump a clear round.

premierstone

jimjamcos wrote: »

Reading over on Betfair forum that Last Instalment is out for season again. Dunno how true source is but shame if so!

Confirmed out for the season.

Colonel Sanders

premierstone wrote: »

Confirmed out for the season.

Such a shame, although if its a case that his injury hasn't worsened and connections are only giving him more time it could be a wise decision.

Thing is a few commentators wiser than me in equine anatomy questioned whether a horse could ever come back from the type of leg injury he sustained.

Just thinking back to Mick Fitzgerald putting him up as a horse to follow praising connections for "skipping Cheltenham" last year. The mind boggles really.....

sting60

Huntley wrote: »

Don't let what was actually said get in the way of your story hucklebuck.


Now, what I said was that he would need 10lbs improvement in him to win unless it was a poor race. I said it was dreamland stuff to suggest he had that improvement in him.

Captain Chris had a rating of 162 prior to the King George. He is now rated at 169, an improvement of 7lbs. Long Run was given a rating of 172 for winning.

Guess what hucklebuck, had he improved the 'probable 10lbs' I said he would need to win, he would have won. He didn't. Care to make yourself look anymore foolish?

Furthermore, I never said that Captain Chris wouldn't get three miles. I stated that it was inconclusive whether he stayed a strongly run 3 miles at Grade 1 standard prior to the race. If anyone did feel unsure about whether the horse would stay, I could have understood their reservations based on the evidence.

I complimented you on guessing the first two home may I add, but what you suggested was idiotic of people not realising he could stay 3 miles or go close in the King George wasn't idiotic at all. He had never done anything substantial at the C&D previously.

You stated that First Lieutenant would be a handicapper. The winner of the Neptune, beating the current Champion Hurdler, and second in an RSA behind the Gold Cup favourite would turn into a handicapper. It is actually more incomprehensible when I write it. Idiotic in the extreme.

You should know by now that throwing in a jab wouldn't go unnoticed, and in doing so I've merely shredded another one of your illogical statements. It would be quite comical to bring up our previous debates if you wish, Peddlers being a terrible chaser, Al Ferof too slow for 2 miles, Flemenstar not a Gold Cup horse. For somebody who spends so much time, and money presuming from your little outbursts on here, on the sport your attempt at race reading is close to the poorest I have come across.



Operates well on undulating tracks? An interesting take, not merely because he was intentionally kept away from Cheltenham last year for the exact opposite reason that you state. Feel free to enlighten us more with your unsupported ramblings.

"Long Run was given a rating of 170 for the King George win but left at 172.The current ratings are Silviniaco Conti +and Long Run 172,Bobs Worth+ and Tidal Bay 171,First Lieutenant 170,Captain Chris ,Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs+ 169. Sir Des Champs was the big improver 162 to 169 and he would be around 172 if he had not made the mistakes he did.Grand Cru travelled like the best horse in the race but did not stay[maybe the ground]but will make light of his current rating of 157 on better ground".Phil Smith BHA head of handicapping.I believe the winner will come from Silviniaco Conti,Bobs Worth or Sir Des Champs.The entries have now closed for the Ryanair and the Gold Cup as of 12 noon today so interesting if Flemenstar is entered in the Ryanair and will have to improve to win it.

jimjamcos

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Such a shame, although if its a case that his injury hasn't worsened and connections are only giving him more time it could be a wise decision.

Thing is a few commentators wiser than me in equine anatomy questioned whether a horse could ever come back from the type of leg injury he sustained.

Just thinking back to Mick Fitzgerald putting him up as a horse to follow praising connections for "skipping Cheltenham" last year. The mind boggles really.....

Fenton was talking about possible January comeback races at the beginning of December and even mentioned Cheltenham so must be a new injury sadly!

Nulty

jimjamcos wrote: »

Reading over on Betfair forum that Last Instalment is out for season again. Dunno how true source is but shame if so!

In my defense it was very late last night - I read that as First Lieutenant and not Last Installment.

jimjamcos

Nulty wrote: »

In my defense it was very late last night - I read that as First Lieutenant and not Last Installment.

No worries...kinda copped that when you mentioned the price you'd taken :P

Colonel Sanders

Pricewise tomorrow in the Racingpost, always like seeing can I second guess him

I'm going for First Lieutenant

Hulk Hands

I'd say it's actually worthwhile keeping the eyes glued to oddschecker, see what goes blue, then back and lay

jimjamcos

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Pricewise tomorrow in the Racingpost, always like seeing can I second guess him

I'm going for First Lieutenant

Seen a RP video last week where Segal said Sire Des Champs was most definitely the horse to take out of The Lexus. After last years poor antepost tipping (bar Synchronised) I'd say he'll play it safer this year and tip the likes of SDC whose price is always likely to contract being Mullins trained and given his Cheltenham record.

Just checked Paddy Power there...SDC has been cut from 6's to 5's today. They hardly know!!! :P

Colonel Sanders

jimjamcos wrote: »

Seen a RP video last week where Segal said Sire Des Champs was most definitely the horse to take out of The Lexus. After last years poor antepost tipping (bar Synchronised) I'd say he'll play it safer this year and tip the likes of SDC whose price is always likely to contract being Mullins trained and given his Cheltenham record.

Looks like you're right

5-1 across the board from 13/2 best yesterday

sonnky

I seen there on a facebook group I'm in that it's Flemenstar..

Slattsy

sonnky wrote: »

I seen there on a facebook group I'm in that it's Flemenstar..

What kind of music do you play?

sonnky

Slattsy wrote: »

What kind of music do you play?

What are ya on about?

Slattsy

Pricewise has tipped up Flemenstar alright. Good call.
12's best available now?

Colonel Sanders

Slattsy wrote: »

Pricewise has tipped up Flemenstar alright. Good call.
12's best available now?

Cutting Sir Des must've been a pre emptive strike by bookies trying to 2nd guess him

I didn't think Flemenstar would be his type of horse, looked a non stayer in the Lexus over 2f shorter and to me is less than 50-50 to line up.

I thought he'd definitely tip a G'town horse

Slattsy

Casey pretty much ruled out the Ryanair.
Apart from the GC there's only the Champion Chase. And that means Sprinter Sacre...

He could well line up in the GC yet.

ste2010

Peter casey is sitting somewhere in an outdoor hot tub with a cigar in one hand a bottle of cava on the other. Each arm resting on the neck of 2 blonde bitches sporting the biggest bazukas known to man..."if Pricewise thinks he's good enough to win then we're going"

Colonel Sanders

Watching this he seems to really like Flemenstar but not for the Gold Cup. Sir Des "the most likely" winner from The Lexus. Strange he then tipped Flemenstar

Doesn't even know Silviniaco Conti's name so I think it's safe to assume he doesn't think he'll win it :rolleyes:

hucklebuck

Like I said earlier in this thread I thought the ground was easier than soft on Lexus day so maybe the thinking is he almost got 3 miles in soft/heavy and it won't be worse than good/soft in March. Flemenstar crumpled on landing over the last too so whether Andy said something after the race.

Realalemadrid

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Watching this
Doesn't even know Silviniaco Conti's name so I think it's safe to assume he doesn't think he'll win it :rolleyes:

Didn't he tip SC for the RSA ante-post last year?

FS might win the Irish Hennessy so even now looks a half decent back to lay for the GC.

Huntley

As I have stated all season, Flemenstar hasn't a hope of winning the Gold Cup, or even placing for that matter. People should stop wasting their time and money pretending otherwise.

Arctic89

Had a similar image come to mind myself Ste!

It's strange he'd tip up a horse who's trainer has already said he's not definitely going for the Gold Cup. At least with SDC and FL you know they're definitely going to end up there, all being well.

I genuinely think Flemenstar has a good chance of staying 3m on good ground and think he's the most likely winner of the Irish Hennessy if he gets those conditions. 3m 2f up the hill is going to be a stretch though. He'd prob need Bob's Worth to make a mistake of some sort.

hucklebuck

Looks like there is no decision on Tidal Bay yet:

http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=531229&lid=&raceid=&title=Ground+key+to+Tidal+Gold+run&ref=atrPA+Racing+Feed&nav=home&sub=&day=Mon

hucklebuck

Betfred are NRNB for the gold cup

Slattsy

hucklebuck wrote: »

Betfred are NRNB for the gold cup

Do you use them ? I dont like Fred.

hucklebuck

I dont either. I just got an email from cheltenham.

Getting sick of bookies especially if you just miss the off and they have shortened everything within 5 seconds. I was going to back a horse at 7/2 and missed the off. I went straight into in play and he was 2/1.

Arctic89

Arctic89 wrote: »

I genuinely think Flemenstar has a good chance of staying 3m on good ground and think he's the most likely winner of the Irish Hennessy if he gets those conditions. 3m 2f up the hill is going to be a stretch though. He'd prob need Bob's Worth to make a mistake of some sort.

I'd be with Tom Segal in the opinion that he stayed the 3m already. Beaten half a length by Tiday Bay and FL is no a disgrace and he battled to the line.

Cheltenham is a different proposition but for a first run over 3m, against top class opposition and after pulling hard for the first half of the race it's not a performance that says he has no chance, or not for me anyway.

I thought Casey's initial reaction was spot on. Let him bowl along and use his pace and jumping to put the rest under pressure. It could all go horribly wrong but better that than to die wondering...

Disclaimer: I am a huge fan of the horse.

Arctic89

Arctic89 wrote: »

It's extremely harsh to say a horse beaten by a length didn't stay in my opinion. Looked to me as if the ground wasn't to his liking. He emptied far too quickly for it to be a case of not staying. A horse who didn't stay would have been beaten 20 lengths,not by 1 length.

I posted this in the Lexus thread after the race and completely agree with you regarding the staying. I'll prob have a few quid on him with Betfred now they're NRNB. From what I've heard though, connections are strongly considering the Queen Mother, which I think would be a mistake.

Slattsy

^^^ Are you talking to yourself Arctic? ^^^

Colonel Sanders

Just read Pricewise. He tipped Flemenstar NRNB with Betfred

Puts a different complexion on the tip to be fair

Arctic89

Slattsy wrote: »

^^^ Are you talking to yourself Arctic? ^^^

Most of the time Slattsy! No was responding to the poster above talking about Segal's view on Flemenstar staying. Should have quoted his post, my bad.

UrbanSea

Just because he was beaten a length doesn't say he stayed. He cruised up and looked like he was going to go on and hack up and he just emptied

eoghan_85

Sorry to jump in lads but what do people reckon of the likelihood Flemenstar might go for the Champion Chase? Have to admit I can't see the horse do himself justice in the Gold cup and I think it's way too premature to send him there but I reckon he could give Sprinter Sacre a right good battle in the Champ Chase!
Obviously would be very surprised to see him beat SS but Cue Card got to within 5 lengths of SS last year and Flemenstar is a far superior horse to Cue Card IMO and who could definitely put SS under a lot more pressure than he's got off anyone else over the last year.

ft9

eoghan_85 wrote: »

Sorry to jump in lads but what do people reckon of the likelihood Flemenstar might go for the Champion Chase? Have to admit I can't see the horse do himself justice in the Gold cup and I think it's way too premature to send him there but I reckon he could give Sprinter Sacre a right good battle in the Champ Chase!
Obviously would be very surprised to see him beat SS but Cue Card got to within 5 lengths of SS last year and Flemenstar is a far superior horse to Cue Card IMO and who could definitely put SS under a lot more pressure than he's got off anyone else over the last year.

Corals make Flemenstar evens to run in Gold Cup, 6/4 the Champion Chase and 4/1 Ryanair

Colonel Sanders

ft9 wrote: »

Corals make Flemenstar evens to run in Gold Cup, 6/4 the Champion Chase and 4/1 Ryanair

That's a 115% over round but leaving out one possibility, is there a price he doesn't run? Or if he doesn't run are bets void?

SRFC

Wouldnt back him for anything unless its nrnb he's not a good traveller so wouldnt be suprised if he didnt appear at the festival and is kept fresh for punchestown.

Overthelast

I was with Sir Des Champs until until the Lexus. I was shocked with the manner of his jumping. I suppose they have time to fix that but its a major concern - he will not get away with any sloppy jumping in March.

SDC/FL/TB/Flem finished in a heap in the Lexus and Ruby seemed quite bullish to let the Lexus winner revert to hurdles come March. That tells me he fears nothing from the Irish contingent.

Sir Des Champs Beat Champion Court by 4L March. Silviniaco Conti beat Champion Court by 13L in April.

Silviniaco Conti looked plenty strong enough in his two runs this season to my eyes anyway.

Silvinicao Conti looks the one to me.

Colonel Sanders

Overthelast wrote: »

Silvinicao Conti looks the one to me.

For me I'd be of the opinion that Bobs Worth and SC have the strongest form in the book over the last 9-12 months. I'd have a slight worry about SC not having a course win however

I really like Flemenstar, but am vastly worried about his stamina

Gringo180

Im fairly confident Flemenstar will get the Gold Cup trip just once the ground is no worse than good to soft. On his breeding he should stay as he's a half brother to Tidal bay who only gets going at the end of 3 miles.

klairondavis

They're both by Flemensfirth but they're not half brothers.

premierstone

Gringo180 wrote: »

Im fairly confident Flemenstar will get the Gold Cup trip just once the ground is no worse than good to soft. On his breeding he should stay as he's a half brother to Tidal bay who only gets going at the end of 3 miles.

Flemenstars dosage profile is patently lacking in stamina, he will get three mile but not 3m 2f in Cheltenham in a Championship race.

Gringo180

premierstone wrote: »

Flemenstars dosage profile is patently lacking in stamina, he will get three mile but not 3m 2f in Cheltenham in a Championship race.

Its a risk im willing to take as he was cantering when all the others were hard at work 2 from home, im thinking the heavy ground got to him in the last furlong.

Any news on Last Instalment hes another that would interest me at a big price.

Overthelast

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

For me I'd be of the opinion that Bobs Worth and SC have the strongest form in the book over the last 9-12 months. I'd have a slight worry about SC not having a course win however

I really like Flemenstar, but am vastly worried about his stamina

Hard to pick a hole in Bob, and he has ++ for course form. But TB giving him 6lbs in the Hennessy and getting that close...I also look at the line of form through First Lieutenant March & subsequent Lexus/Des Champ etc

I'd be as happy as anyone for an Irish winner. And we have a few shots at the title this yr, no doubt about it. SS aside, Flemenstar thee most spectaular jumper of a fence I've seen in some time. The trip debate should be a little clearer for us all come the Irish Hennessy next month.

62 days left until Holy Week.........

premierstone

Gringo180 wrote: »

Its a risk im willing to take as he was cantering when all the others were hard at work 2 from home, im thinking the heavy ground got to him in the last furlong.

Any news on Last Instalment hes another that would interest me at a big price.

Last Installment unfortunately out for the season again.

Ok the ground might have played a part, but you also have an extra 2f, an uphill finish and I would myself would imagine that at least two of the other three have more scope for improvement.

Don't get me wrong I am a massive fan of hte horse I just dont think he is ready for a GC, I would love to be proven wrong however.