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Gold Cup 2013

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,451 ✭✭✭Overthelast


    Gringo180 wrote: »
    Its a risk im willing to take as he was cantering when all the others were hard at work 2 from home, im thinking the heavy ground got to him in the last furlong.

    Any news on Last Instalment hes another that would interest me at a big price.

    Setback. Out for season

    http://www.setanta.com/Africa/Articles/2013/01/07/Instalment-out-for-the-season/gnid-158123/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Flemenstar is the new Florida Pearl (with a bit more speed).

    If i owned him i wouldnt send him to Cheltenham. Mop up all the softish Grade One's here and maybe think about the Aintree bowl. Easy 3 miles on good ground, will suit him perfectly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180



    Last Installment unfortunately out for the season again.

    Ok the ground might have played a part, but you also have an extra 2f, an uphill finish and I would myself would imagine that at least two of the other three have more scope for improvement.

    Don't get me wrong I am a massive fan of hte horse I just dont think he is ready for a GC, I would love to be proven wrong however.
    Thats a shame about L.I he looked a really good novice last season and was looking forward to seen him this year.

    Might give The Giant Bolster another chance for my E.W bet although his last race he jumped atrociously and never looked to be travelling throughout which is worrying, but he seems to like Chelthenham and if they let him bowl out in front he might run into a place.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭sting60


    It is not a question if Flemenstar will stay 3.2 miles but can he improve at least 6lb over 3.2 miles and prove he is a better horse over that trip.with Silviniaco Conti,Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs improving the Gold Cup will be won with a rating of no less than 175.The king George was a shocking race in terms of standard with Long run able to win running to a rating of 170 compared with its rating of 182 in last years GC.With Long Run remaining at 172 a regression of 10lbs in a season he can be discarded with.As last years GC was one of the weakest in a very long time with only the Giant Bolster improving from 160 to 164 which leaves him with zero chance.With Sir Des Champs jumping an issue I think both the King George and Lexus form will not be good enough to win the 2013 GC.In my opinion that leaves the race between Silvinico Conti and Bobs Worth.Im aware the above post is not very original but it is obvious a lot of so called top horses can easily be disgarded.I would like to go back to Flemenstar.If I was backing with my heart I would back Femenstar as he would bring North Co.Dublin to a stand still but,my head says no chance and indeed he would have to run the race of his life even to win the Ryanair.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭sting60


    ste2010 wrote: »
    Peter casey is sitting somewhere in an outdoor hot tub with a cigar in one hand a bottle of cava on the other. Each arm resting on the neck of 2 blonde bitches sporting the biggest bazukas known to man..."if Pricewise thinks he's good enough to win then we're going"
    That about sums up the bold Peter but change the cava for a double Jemmie and leave the bottle.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,706 ✭✭✭premierstone


    sting60 wrote: »
    It is not a question if Flemenstar will stay 3.2 miles but can he improve at least 6lb over 3.2 miles and prove he is a better horse over that trip.with Silviniaco Conti,Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs improving the Gold Cup will be won with a rating of no less than 175.The king George was a shocking race in terms of standard with Long run able to win running to a rating of 170 compared with its rating of 182 in last years GC.With Long Run remaining at 172 a regression of 10lbs in a season he can be discarded with.As last years GC was one of the weakest in a very long time with only the Giant Bolster improving from 160 to 164 which leaves him with zero chance.With Sir Des Champs jumping an issue I think both the King George and Lexus form will not be good enough to win the 2013 GC.In my opinion that leaves the race between Silvinico Conti and Bobs Worth.Im aware the above post is not very original but it is obvious a lot of so called top horses can easily be disgarded.I would like to go back to Flemenstar.If I was backing with my heart I would back Femenstar as he would bring North Co.Dublin to a stand still but,my head says no chance and indeed he would have to run the race of his life even to win the Ryanair.

    Not sure I can agree with this tbh, the Lexus and the King George are by far the most reliable trials for the GC and always have been, a quick google has just told me that the last 13 winners of the Gold Cup have ran in either or the other.

    This years King George was a pretty weak renewal I agree, but it has to be said the suicidal break neck pace they went attributed to this in some part, even allowing for that I would take the Lexus as a far superior race, just look how far back China Rock and QDLR were, I know neither are superstars but they are no mugs either.

    That leaves the four that finished in a heap, and when you consider we know both SDC and First Lieutenant improve for spring ground and have Cheltenham form then they are the two to take out of the race for me, and slight preference for SDC as he surely wont jump as bad again and was doing he's best work at the end.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,783 ✭✭✭handsomecake


    sting60 wrote: »
    IIf I was backing with my heart I would back Femenstar as he would bring North Co.Dublin to a stand still
    Never understand sentiment like this.

    I couldn't give a **** if he wins. All I care is the one I have my money on winning.
    I hate seeing parochialism in horse racing.

    Used to grind my gears when Colin Murphy would read out on the news " terrible day for the irish punters at Cheltenham with the English taking 5 of the races on day two"

    It's like Irish people are obliged to back Irish horses. If anything when I see they are Irish I'm inclined to back something else.

    Plenty of winners have come from within a mile or two of my house and I couldn't have given less of a ****


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    Never understand sentiment like this.

    I couldn't give a **** if he wins. All I care is the one I have my money on winning.
    I hate seeing parochialism in horse racing.

    Used to grind my gears when Colin Murphy would read out on the news " terrible day for the irish punters at Cheltenham with the English taking 5 of the races on day two"

    It's like Irish people are obliged to back Irish horses. If anything when I see they are Irish I'm inclined to back something else.

    Plenty of winners have come from within a mile or two of my house and I couldn't have given less of a ****

    Perhaps it's gambling you're in love with, not horse racing.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,783 ✭✭✭handsomecake


    ft9 wrote: »
    Perhaps it's gambling you're in love with, not horse racing.


    i just hate the implication that everyone who lives near peter casey will back the pony because your man is their neighbour.
    back who you think will win the jaysis thing whether hes from somerset or carlow.
    i hate seeing sheeple just follow the consnsus.
    who gives a ****e that the horse is irish.
    you should be dispassionate and objective


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭sting60


    Not sure I can agree with this tbh, the Lexus and the King George are by far the most reliable trials for the GC and always have been, a quick google has just told me that the last 13 winners of the Gold Cup have ran in either or the other.

    This years King George was a pretty weak renewal I agree, but it has to be said the suicidal break neck pace they went attributed to this in some part, even allowing for that I would take the Lexus as a far superior race, just look how far back China Rock and QDLR were, I know neither are superstars but they are no mugs either.

    That leaves the four that finished in a heap, and when you consider we know both SDC and First Lieutenant improve for spring ground and have Cheltenham form then they are the two to take out of the race for me, and slight preference for SDC as he surely wont jump as bad again and was doing he's best work at the end.
    Betfair chase, Conti beat LR 21/2land Giant Bolster well beaten in 3rd.Hennessy. BW beat Tidal Bay 31/4l with First Lieutenant a distant third.With SC and BW very likely to improve further how can the King George/Lexus match anything near the quality of the above two races.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,706 ✭✭✭premierstone


    Or you could take the view that Tidal Bay beat First Lieutenant by 5l in the Hennessy conceeding 7lbs, but in the Lexus off level weights there was only a head in it, so the conclusion is that First Lieutenant has improved somewhere in the region of 8 to 10lbs, this added to the fact he will improve for better ground and has a trainer who is extremely capable of having one primed for the big one definitly puts him in the mix. Been three times the price of Bobs Worth makes him the value call of the two to me.

    All that said I still think SDC will win though :D does anyone know is any bookie giving a price on a gigginstown winner, that is something I would be very very interested in.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭byronbay2


    Slattsy wrote: »
    Flemenstar is the new Florida Pearl (with a bit more speed).

    If i owned him i wouldnt send him to Cheltenham. Mop up all the softish Grade One's here and maybe think about the Aintree bowl. Easy 3 miles on good ground, will suit him perfectly.

    Agree that FS is the new Florida Pearl, or perhaps more accurately the new One Man. Can easily see him winning Grade 1 races over 3 miles (King George, Lexus, Betfred Bowl [3m 1f] etc.), certainly on decent ground, but under no circumstances can I see him winning a Gold Cup.
    The GC is always a lung-busting slog and a horse really needs to be a proper stayer to win (remember Synchronised?), much more so than The Lexus, where his stamina gave out. It would be a terrible mistake imo for Peter Casey to send him to Cheltenham to burst a gut over 3m 2f when his natural exuberance is the antithesis of what is required for the race.
    I would give FS a great chance in The Ryanair but believe that the trainer should be brave and throw him at The Champion Chase, where I believe he could pressurise SS in a way that has not happened before. His jumping and cruising speed look ideal for the job. He is currently trading @ 10.5 on Betfair for the CC and that would be an absolutely huge price if you could be sure that it was his target.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    There is an atricle on the RTE website today from the owner of Flemenstar.

    He says this:
    "He's in great order, but we will make plans for Cheltenham much closer to the time.
    "He'll be entered in the Queen Mother, the Ryanair Chase and the Gold Cup, but we are just concentrating on the Hennessy
    "He's a big, long-striding horse and, in hindsight, we should have gone on a mile out.
    "If we'd have done that, he'd have put a lot of the horses in trouble with his jumping, which is his biggest asset.
    "The ground was also hard work the other day, so that was another reason.
    "I think he'll definitely stay (in the Gold Cup).
    "He's still only a baby and still has a great future."

    Link:
    http://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/irish/2013/0109/361910-flemenstar-focus-on-hennessy/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,706 ✭✭✭premierstone


    The last quote is the most relevant and is the exact reason they should stay away from the GC for 2013, if he was mine I would go the Ryanair route and everything would be geared towards Gold Cup day 2014.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,224 ✭✭✭jimjamcos


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1F9bHZvzkBw

    They're all on Bobs Worth by the looks of it with Captain Chris and Bold Sir Brian thrown in as speculative ew's!


  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    i just hate the implication that everyone who lives near peter casey will back the pony because your man is their neighbour.
    back who you think will win the jaysis thing whether hes from somerset or carlow.
    i hate seeing sheeple just follow the consnsus.
    who gives a ****e that the horse is irish.
    you should be dispassionate and objective
    couldnt agree with you more.every year its the same old baloney about how many irsh winners there are,how many english winners there are blah blah. i honestly couldnt give a fiddlers where the winner of a horse is trained as long as its a great race and obviously that i backed the winner. i think its fair to say, unless someone backed how many irish winners there would be, that really most punters dont care either way.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 327 ✭✭Arctic89


    Slattsy wrote: »
    There is an atricle on the RTE website today from the owner of Flemenstar.

    He says this:
    "He's in great order, but we will make plans for Cheltenham much closer to the time.
    "He'll be entered in the Queen Mother, the Ryanair Chase and the Gold Cup, but we are just concentrating on the Hennessy
    "He's a big, long-striding horse and, in hindsight, we should have gone on a mile out.
    "If we'd have done that, he'd have put a lot of the horses in trouble with his jumping, which is his biggest asset.
    "The ground was also hard work the other day, so that was another reason.
    "I think he'll definitely stay (in the Gold Cup).
    "He's still only a baby and still has a great future."

    Link:
    http://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/irish/2013/0109/361910-flemenstar-focus-on-hennessy/

    Yeah, wasn't it him that insisted on the Gold Cup though after Casey first said they'd be going for the Champion Chase.

    Not a big fan of owner's telling trainers where their horse should go. Pandorama in 2011 springs to mind. As much as I think Flemenstar stays and that he should take his chance in the Gold Cup, I think he'd win the Ryanair on the bridle this year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,447 ✭✭✭barney4001


    first lieutenant must have a big shout in the gold cup


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭ste2010


    Arctic89 wrote: »

    Yeah, wasn't it him that insisted on the Gold Cup though after Casey first said they'd be going for the Champion Chase.

    Not a big fan of owner's telling trainers where their horse should go. Pandorama in 2011 springs to mind. As much as I think Flemenstar stays and that he should take his chance in the Gold Cup, I think he'd win the Ryanair on the bridle this year.

    On fairness if I had a horse or trained a horse like flemenstar and had a choice between the GC and CC I would go for the GC..unless a sniper takes sprinter sacre out he's going lap them


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭ste2010


    Random thoughts fill my head now and then and for some reason today I thought of ruby being interviewed after the Lexus again..saying tidal Bay will be some horse for the world hurdle....
    If your a jockey that's just after winning one the most important races of the year, a race that is a prime indicator for the gold cup and seeing all the sh*te that took place in the king George WHY...WHY...WHY would you turn around moments after the race and say what he said....

    BECAUSE SILVINIACO CONTI MUST BE AN ABSOLUTE BEAST!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 327 ✭✭Arctic89


    ste2010 wrote: »
    On fairness if I had a horse or trained a horse like flemenstar and had a choice between the GC and CC I would go for the GC..unless a sniper takes sprinter sacre out he's going lap them

    Yeah I'd agree about SS hammering him in the CC. I think Ryanair is the best route for him but I think connections are skipping it because it has less prestige than the other two.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    ste2010 wrote: »
    Random thoughts fill my head now and then and for some reason today I thought of ruby being interviewed after the Lexus again..saying tidal Bay will be some horse for the world hurdle....
    If your a jockey that's just after winning one the most important races of the year, a race that is a prime indicator for the gold cup and seeing all the sh*te that took place in the king George WHY...WHY...WHY would you turn around moments after the race and say what he said....

    BECAUSE SILVINIACO CONTI MUST BE AN ABSOLUTE BEAST!!

    I think he could shape into a really good chaser, he must stay if they are thinking of re-routing Tidal to the World as he would definitely be competitive in the Gold Cup. Or maybe Ruby just wants a decent chance in both races.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭ste2010


    hucklebuck wrote: »

    I think he could shape into a really good chaser, he must stay if they are thinking of re-routing Tidal to the World as he would definitely be competitive in the Gold Cup. Or maybe Ruby just wants a decent chance in both races.
    My first thoughts on it were he wants decent chances in both races but what tidal bay did in leopardstown was incredible.
    You don't just voluntarily tear up a brilliant card for the blue riband of jumps racing unless you know that you have the ace in your back pocket...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    ste2010 wrote: »
    My first thoughts on it were he wants decent chances in both races but what tidal bay did in leopardstown was incredible.
    You don't just voluntarily tear up a brilliant card for the blue riband of jumps racing unless you know that you have the ace in your back pocket...

    The only element of doubt for me is if he stays, he has the pace but the million dollar question is if he has the stamina with it?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,096 ✭✭✭✭the groutch


    had to laugh when on the RTE news earlier they referred to Bobs Worth as Irish trained


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Looks to me like FL is idling when he gets to Flemenstar in the Lexus. He looks to try and pick up when Tidal Bay comes up on his inside. He seems to respond. Any one agree?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Huntley


    Nulty wrote: »
    Looks to me like FL is idling when he gets to Flemenstar in the Lexus. He looks to try and pick up when Tidal Bay comes up on his inside. He seems to respond. Any one agree?

    No. He had the bones of 4 or 5 lengths on Tidal Bay after the last with Flemenstar for company and he really should have pulled clear. He gets 3 miles no problem but in terms of true staying power it wasn't there, and that will catch him out in the last furlong or so of a Gold Cup.

    I'm still in the minority that he is a Ryanair animal and probably won't line up there unfortunately.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,289 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    Lol at comparing Flemenstars cruising speed to Sprinter Sacre's.

    Tidal Bay would not be winning the Gold Cup or even placing imo, SC will also struggle to place.

    I liked SDC for this season but I have been disappointed by his runs to some degree, he's starting to remind me of Cooldine who looked a world beater in the RSA that day and I thought he was going to have a great chance in the Gold Cup but he just continued to disappoint and didn't win another race.

    Bobs Worth looked tailor made for the race after the RSA, has come out this season and showed he has improved and was able for the hustle and bustle of the biggest three mile handicap chase of the season. He is still a very fair price and with luck in running he is going to take a lot of beating.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,132 ✭✭✭SRFC


    mdwexford wrote: »
    Lol at comparing Flemenstars cruising speed to Sprinter Sacre's.

    Tidal Bay would not be winning the Gold Cup or even placing imo, SC will also struggle to place.

    I liked SDC for this season but I have been disappointed by his runs to some degree, he's starting to remind me of Cooldine who looked a world beater in the RSA that day and I thought he was going to have a great chance in the Gold Cup but he just continued to disappoint and didn't win another race.

    Bobs Worth looked tailor made for the race after the RSA, has come out this season and showed he has improved and was able for the hustle and bustle of the biggest three mile handicap chase of the season. He is still a very fair price and with luck in running he is going to take a lot of beating.


    SDC wont turn out anything like cooldine he hasnt been 100% fit this year willie has left a lot to work on for the gold cup he will comfortably beat the field who ran at leopardstown in the GC.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,289 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    How do you know he won't?

    So everyone else was fully fit but he wasn't?

    If so how do you this, are you Willie Mullins or Sir Des Champs?


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,132 ✭✭✭SRFC


    mdwexford wrote: »
    How do you know he won't?

    So everyone else was fully fit but he wasn't?

    If so how do you this, are you Willie Mullins or Sir Des Champs?


    I feel you're bringing your anger and seething from the other thread which is quite sad go to bed mate and take it handy come back to me on the 15th when SDC proves my point ive tried to help you with some information I have on the horse yet you reply with a smart comment.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,289 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    Why would I be angry because you are stupid?

    I'm embarrassed for you, I can see from your posts how sad you are.

    Yes I'm sure I'm going to listen to your "information", quick let me get my net worth on SDC because a random crazy with no credibility on the Internet claims he has the inside track on the Mullins stable.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Nulty wrote: »
    Looks to me like FL is idling when he gets to Flemenstar in the Lexus. He looks to try and pick up when Tidal Bay comes up on his inside. He seems to respond. Any one agree?

    I thought Cooper stopped riding him yards before the line (assumption is he didn't see Tidal Bay coming)

    FL is a horse I really like but he seemed to be out stayed by Bobs Worth in the RSA & then both out stayed & out classed in the Hennessy. On one hand he was quite weak in the market on the day (Newbury) but on the other hand I can't imagine Mouse would have travelled if he wasn't in good form

    I think there are arguments that FL could be suited by better ground & since Newbury only one day matters (was 14/1 in the Lexus IIRC) but while it wouldn't surprise me to see him run well I can't put forward a form case for him to finish ahead of Bobs Worth


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,451 ✭✭✭Overthelast


    Nulty wrote: »
    Looks to me like FL is idling when he gets to Flemenstar in the Lexus. He looks to try and pick up when Tidal Bay comes up on his inside. He seems to respond. Any one agree?

    I would agree with you on this.

    Looking at his form, he runs consistently well, but seems to come up short far too often. Its a while since he finished first past the post, under a range of distances, which suggests idling or lack of "will" to get his head in front. While he could run a big race, I do not expect him to get his head in front for the first time since 2011 in the GC. We are looking for the winner. There are more consistent (and probably better) horses in the field, that are winning their races.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭ste2010


    mdwexford wrote: »

    Tidal Bay would not be winning the Gold Cup or even placing imo, SC will also struggle to place.
    .
    If it came up soft do you still think Tidal bay wouldn't place?
    I appreciate the stamina question is out there for SC...is that Why you think He will struggle to place or are there some other reasons?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭ste2010


    hucklebuck wrote: »

    The only element of doubt for me is if he stays, he has the pace but the million dollar question is if he has the stamina with it?
    Yeh - that is the big question...that's why I'm so surprised that without a thought Ruby suggested the world hurdle for TB when he knows full well he'll stay the distance in the GC


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    First Lieutenant wasn't idling. Look at the race again. The horse didn't have time to idle.
    He was outstayed.

    After the dust has settled, the more I look at the form and how the races panned out I'm beginning to think that Bobs Worth will take a hell of a lot of beating.
    I do also think that SDC is the only danger. Mullins will have left something to work on and he will improve again. He just needs to jump better.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    I spend almost as much time looking at the markets as I do racing (and other sports)

    One of the reasons I'm a little flat on SDC is first time out in the Durkan he was slammed by Flemenstar. A lot of people pointed to the fact it was his first run of the season. He has managed to win first time up every other season & the closer we got to off time the more cash was shovelled on him. The massive weight of support suggested to me fitness was not an issue

    In the Lexus he was again heavily supported but this time may well have won had he jumped better the way the race turned out. However Flemenstar was travelling all over the field approaching the last only (IMO of course) for his stamina to give

    Last season I'd every respect for SDC but based on his form alone I could not make him gold cup jolly. I now firmly believe Flemenstar is a better horse. However stamina grounds would make me think SDC would finish ahead of him over 3m 2 in a Gold Cup. If they met at 2.5m it's Flemenstar for me every time


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Slattsy wrote: »
    First Lieutenant wasn't idling. Look at the race again. The horse didn't have time to idle.
    He was outstayed.

    After the dust has settled, the more I look at the form and how the races panned out I'm beginning to think that Bobs Worth will take a hell of a lot of beating.
    I do also think that SDC is the only danger. Mullins will have left something to work on and he will improve again. He just needs to jump better.

    Look at the final 20 yards of the race closely. Watch the movement of the horse before TB gets to him and immediately after he has the chance to see TB on his inside. There is definitely a response but no time left to pick up. and anyway picking up in soft ground when the other horse has momentum is always going to take a fair distance. I'm not saying anything other than he has more to give and shouldn't be allowed to getthere too soon. On the line. It was a great ride from Coopen but it needed to be a little bit later.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,451 ✭✭✭Overthelast


    Slattsy wrote: »
    First Lieutenant wasn't idling. Look at the race again. The horse didn't have time to idle.
    He was outstayed.

    After the dust has settled, the more I look at the form and how the races panned out I'm beginning to think that Bobs Worth will take a hell of a lot of beating.
    I do also think that SDC is the only danger. Mullins will have left something to work on and he will improve again. He just needs to jump better.
    Mouse has campaigned him consistently over a trip of 3 miles, in the belief he stays. Whether he was outstayed/idled/needs better ground is probably a moot point at this juncture. I like FL, but he's not winning his races and that's a major negative going into any race, never mind the Gold Cup.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭sting60


    Or you could take the view that Tidal Bay beat First Lieutenant by 5l in the Hennessy conceeding 7lbs, but in the Lexus off level weights there was only a head in it, so the conclusion is that First Lieutenant has improved somewhere in the region of 8 to 10lbs, this added to the fact he will improve for better ground and has a trainer who is extremely capable of having one primed for the big one definitly puts him in the mix. Been three times the price of Bobs Worth makes him the value call of the two to me.

    All that said I still think SDC will win though :D does anyone know is any bookie giving a price on a gigginstown winner, that is something I would be very very interested in.
    First Lieutenant ran the race of his life to finish second in the Lexus but the fact remains he has never won beyond 21/2 miles.In my opinion First Lieutenant has as much chance of winning the Gold Cup as me having a chance of giving Pamala Anderson a lash anytime soon.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,706 ✭✭✭premierstone


    sting60 wrote: »
    First Lieutenant ran the race of his life to finish second in the Lexus but the fact remains he has never won beyond 21/2 miles.In my opinion First Lieutenant has as much chance of winning the Gold Cup as me having a chance of giving Pamala Anderson a lash anytime soon.

    Wow not to cast any aspertions on your ability to attract members of the opposite sex, but I would not be so quick to dismiss First Lieutenant - Yes I would obviously rate Bobs Worth and SDC as the two most likely winners at this stage but FL looks the e/w value to me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    sting60 wrote: »
    First Lieutenant ran the race of his life to finish second in the Lexus but the fact remains he has never won beyond 21/2 miles.In my opinion First Lieutenant has as much chance of winning the Gold Cup as me having a chance of giving Pamala Anderson a lash anytime soon.

    The race of his life? So the Neptune he won and the RSA he was second in pushing Bobs Worth all the way are worse form than getting beaten by Tidal Bay?

    The horse is clearly a much better horse on decent ground around Cheltenham, he figures to improve a fair bit from his Lexus run. It's hard to see him reversing form with Bob's Worth, but if something happens to BW then he's the most likely winner imo


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    The race of his life? So the Neptune he won and the RSA he was second in pushing Bobs Worth all the way are worse form than getting beaten by Tidal Bay?

    Yes. The Lexus chase form was miles ahead of his novice form.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,706 ✭✭✭premierstone


    Yes. The Lexus chase form was miles ahead of his novice form.

    Agreed but that adds further to he's case : a) He is clearly on the upgrade and b) he will improve for the spring ground and track.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Nulty wrote: »

    Look at the final 20 yards of the race closely. Watch the movement of the horse before TB gets to him and immediately after he has the chance to see TB on his inside. There is definitely a response but no time left to pick up.

    I actually thought I noticed this too

    I thought Cooper had stopped riding though, but must watch it again


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    Yes. The Lexus chase form was miles ahead of his novice form.

    In ratings etc yes but in hindsight he beat the current champion hurdler that day


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    In ratings etc yes but in hindsight he beat the current champion hurdler that day

    This makes no sense at all!. Horses improve, Rock On Ruby wouldn't have won the 2011 Champion Hurdler, he would have been out with the washing.

    First Lieutenant is improving, and remarkably enough Tidal Bay seems to have aswell.

    The Lexus is a lifetime best for First Lieutenant. He is definitly going the right way


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 185 ✭✭tipster


    first lieutenant will finish in the first four ive no doubt on good ground the further the better for him


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭ste2010


    I watched the Lexus again. FL definitely looked like he stayed alot better than any of his other races. His cruising speed like flemenstars is amazing. In the henessey he had all of them off the bridle a long way out...Bobs worth just keeps pulling it out of the bag though.
    I dont know but If I was mouse Id probably front run him in the GC and try and get a good bit ahead of the pack and hope his cruising kills them all and then gives him enough space between him and Bobs worth et al for them not to catch him. I cant see myself backing him but I definitely see the attraction as to why you might hope he could win.


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