2013...is it the year to buy?

Skr4wny

I want to buy this year and was wondering what peoples take is on what way the prices will go? Obviously given our recent past I'm a bit hesitant to believe the first thing I read as the whole world is about spin these days and talking things up.

I have about 30% of what I'm willing to spend on the gaff in savings so I'm not in too bad of a position.

Ta.

djimi

Where are you looking to buy?

Skr4wny

That's not set in stone, but looking at houses in D7/D15 at present.

looters

How big is your deposit?

Skr4wny

€50k

Galego

I predict 2014 to be the best year to buy. Once the banks/government have to get real with all those mortgages in arrears.

goz83

I would say this year is, yes. Dublin prices will start to go up again this year, but waiting until 2014 won't make much difference tbh. Losing out on the mortgage interest relief is a big loss though.

boardie100

goz83 wrote: »

I would say this year is, yes. Dublin prices will start to go up again this year, but waiting until 2014 won't make much difference tbh. Losing out on the mortgage interest relief is a big loss though.

what makes you think they will go up again?.... as you just said interest relief is now gone and property tax on the way means there is only one way its going.... down!.... and i mean dublin in general not just south county dublin

goz83

boardie100 wrote: »

what makes you think they will go up again?.... as you just said interest relief is now gone and property tax on the way means there is only one way its going.... down!.... and i mean dublin in general not just south county dublin

Because people are afraid they are going to go up, they will buy when they think prices have started to rise. Dublin prices have basically stabilised and the news of some houses (very few, i know) on the southside actually going up, is one of those signs that people will bite the bullet to.

That's how the property bubble grew so quickly. Fear and greed. Put the two together, add some cheap credit if it's available and you have a property market on the rise. They say prices will never hit the levels they did in 2007, but the truth is they will. But those of us who bought in that time will never see that money back if we sold. A 35-40 year mortgage will typically yield twice the borrowed amount....and I know my home won't be selling for 800k at any time. After all, it's just a 3-bed-semi in north dublins suburbs.

Procrastastudy

goz83 wrote: »

Because people are afraid they are going to go up, they will buy when they think prices have started to rise. Dublin prices have basically stabilised and the news of some houses (very few, i know) on the southside actually going up, is one of those signs that people will bite the bullet to.

That's how the property bubble grew so quickly. Fear and greed. Put the two together, add some cheap credit if it's available and you have a property market on the rise. They say prices will never hit the levels they did in 2007, but the truth is they will. But those of us who bought in that time will never see that money back if we sold. A 35-40 year mortgage will typically yield twice the borrowed amount....and I know my home won't be selling for 800k at any time. After all, it's just a 3-bed-semi in north dublins suburbs.

Bear in mind the inflation effect over 40 years. Please God will it be akin to to the 1966 - 2006 rise.

repsol

Skr4wny wrote: »

That's not set in stone, but looking at houses in D7/D15 at present.

At the price point you are looking at (150k) it would take a big % drop to have a huge effect on you in terms of cash so I would go ahead and try to organise a mortgage as this might be difficult.You should then look around and put really low offers on several houses you like.You will get a lot of rejections but it doesn't sound like you are in a hurry,you have nothing to sell (no chain,a big plus for a seller)and you only need to find 1 desperate seller to get a real bargain.If you buy at 10% under value you should be protected from future falls as they are unlikely to be double digit.I bought an investment house in D15 for 135k in '96 sold it in '05 for 346k and its worth 140k now. I think its pretty near rock bottom in that area.

handlemaster

repsol wrote: »

At the price point you are looking at (150k) it would take a big % drop to have a huge effect on you in terms of cash so I would go ahead and try to organise a mortgage as this might be difficult.You should then look around and put really low offers on several houses you like.You will get a lot of rejections but it doesn't sound like you are in a hurry,you have nothing to sell (no chain,a big plus for a seller)and you only need to find 1 desperate seller to get a real bargain.If you buy at 10% under value you should be protected from future falls as they are unlikely to be double digit.I bought an investment house in D15 for 135k in '96 sold it in '05 for 346k and its worth 140k now. I think its pretty near rock bottom in that area.

I would agree there are some good value homes in the D15 area. But would wait until July to see how things are going with the economy and the property tax.

gurramok

goz83 wrote: »

I would say this year is, yes. Dublin prices will start to go up again this year, but waiting until 2014 won't make much difference tbh. Losing out on the mortgage interest relief is a big loss though.

Every buyer is in the same boat losing out on MIR, thats one bit less money available to purchase hence helping prices drop. Price drops will offset any "loss" on MIR. Also the Dublin market is made of up of different sub markets, each area is different, D15 is not "South Co. Dublin", whatever that is defined as .

the groutch

goz83 wrote: »

Because people are afraid they are going to go up, they will buy when they think prices have started to rise. Dublin prices have basically stabilised and the news of some houses (very few, i know) on the southside actually going up, is one of those signs that people will bite the bullet to.

That's how the property bubble grew so quickly. Fear and greed. Put the two together, add some cheap credit if it's available and you have a property market on the rise. They say prices will never hit the levels they did in 2007, but the truth is they will. But those of us who bought in that time will never see that money back if we sold. A 35-40 year mortgage will typically yield twice the borrowed amount....and I know my home won't be selling for 800k at any time. After all, it's just a 3-bed-semi in north dublins suburbs.

I think the real gamechanger though is the property price register.
People will see past the smoke and mirrors of changes in the asking prices, as that's simply what they are, how much the seller wants.
Only when there is a visible upturn in actual selling prices of similar properties would will see any "panic buying"

jimogr

Two things to be mindful on the supply side:

1. What will happen the 135,000 properties which have mortgages in arrears.

and

2. What will happen the 200,000+ vacant properties (excluding holiday homes) - many of which are controlled by Nama or foreign banks.

A release of some of that supply onto the market could have a large effect on prices.

D3PO

jimogr wrote: »

Two things to be mindful on the supply side:

1. What will happen the 135,000 properties which have mortgages in arrears.

and

2. What will happen the 200,000+ vacant properties (excluding holiday homes) - many of which are controlled by Nama or foreign banks.

A release of some of that supply onto the market could have a large effect on prices.

1. Wont impact supply. If somebody gets their house repod they still need to live somewhere. Ergo no change in supply just a change in who lives where

2. There isnt 200,000 vacant properties and a lot of what is vacant is crap in the arse end of nowhere and besides inflating the figure has no real bearing on the property market

jimogr

D3PO wrote: »

1. Wont impact supply. If somebody gets their house repod they still need to live somewhere. Ergo no change in supply just a change in who lives where

2. There isnt 200,000 vacant properties and a lot of what is vacant is crap in the arse end of nowhere and besides inflating the figure has no real bearing on the property market

1. I cannot agree with your logic here. Occupants of repossessed houses are unlikely to move into a comparable property, sure this may put upward pressure on rents but repossessions will release supply in certain section of the market.

2. There are 290,000 vacant properties according to the cso, statistics from the census. 50,000 of these are holiday homes. So in fact there are more vacant properties that I stated. Yes many of there are in crap locations but not all.

Summary here: http://cso.ie/en/newsandevents/pressreleases/2012pressreleases/pressreleasethisisireland-highlightsfromcensus2011part1/

More details in the data tables.

Zamboni

D3PO wrote: »

1. Wont impact supply. If somebody gets their house repod they still need to live somewhere. Ergo no change in supply just a change in who lives where

It would affect price though.
If evictees put in council housing and the house is repod and firesaled.

D3PO

Zamboni wrote: »

It would affect price though.
If evictees put in council housing and the house is repod and firesaled.

In theory your right but the past 4 years have shown that no Firesales will happen.

Zamboni

jimogr wrote: »

Two things to be mindful on the supply side:

1. What will happen the 135,000 properties which have mortgages in arrears.

and

2. What will happen the 200,000+ vacant properties (excluding holiday homes) - many of which are controlled by Nama or foreign banks.

A release of some of that supply onto the market could have a large effect on prices.

Unfortunately, there are too many vested interests which will result in the demolition to a substantial portion of those properties.
They will never be allowed on the market (as they should be - everything has a price).
The tax payer will ultimately take the hit to destroy the supply side of the equation and reset the whole game again. Nothing will be learned.

D3PO

jimogr wrote: »

1. I cannot agree with your logic here. Occupants of repossessed houses are unlikely to move into a comparable property, sure this may put upward pressure on rents but repossessions will release supply in certain section of the market.

2. There are 290,000 vacant properties according to the cso, statistics from the census. 50,000 of these are holiday homes. So in fact there are more vacant properties that I stated. Yes many of there are in crap locations but not all.

Summary here: http://cso.ie/en/newsandevents/pressreleases/2012pressreleases/pressreleasethisisireland-highlightsfromcensus2011part1/

More details in the data tables.

what this fails to take account of is lack of access to certain properties in apartment blocks. There is more than anecdotal evidence to show that a lot of people actually never recieved census forms and many more didnt have collections done. (I myself know of 12 diff property owners / renters who never filed a census for for this very reason)

It also fails to take account of persons who were out of the country on holidays etc at the time.

If you think that people were actually all arsed to follow the guidelines to ensure the CSO had precise data your sorely mistaken.

D3PO

Zamboni wrote: »

Unfortunately, there are too many vested interests which will result in the demolition to a substantial portion of those properties.
They will never be allowed on the market (as they should be - everything has a price).
The tax payer will ultimately take the hit to destroy the supply side of the equation and reset the whole game again. Nothing will be learned.

yeas but sometimes the price is uneconomical.

Its entirely possible that buldozing a builders finish property in Leitrimfor example and reusing as agri land has more economic benefit than the shell itself.

Zamboni

D3PO wrote: »

In theory your right but the past 4 years have shown that no Firesales will happen.

Yep.
I think the endgame here is for Nama and the banks to gain control of as much property as possible, allow them to rot, and then semtex the lot into oblivion (with the exception of well located properties).

Long Term Economic Value. I get it now.

D3PO

jimogr wrote: »

1. I cannot agree with your logic here. Occupants of repossessed houses are unlikely to move into a comparable property, sure this may put upward pressure on rents but repossessions will release supply in certain section of the market.
.

You actually contradicted yourself They wont live in comparable property but will have to live somewhere. ergo supply doesnt change just the person in the property

jimogr

D3PO wrote: »

You actually contradicted yourself They wont live in comparable property but will have to live somewhere. ergo supply doesnt change just the person in the property

So you think the property market is just one market?

D3PO

jimogr wrote: »

So you think the property market is just one market?

no but your the one grouping 135k of arreared properties and 290k of vacant properties as one not me.

if you want to talk general i will talk general if you want to talk about a subset then we can talk about a subset but you cant mix and match to suit your point of view

davet82

I think this year should be interesting time to buy, maybe in the second half as we will see things settle down after MIR and with property tax based on a houses worth it should definately have a downward effect on prices. I wouldn't expect massive drops but just the reality of what property is actually worth in such a harsh econmic climate.

WhatNowForUs?

Skr4wny wrote: »

I want to buy this year and was wondering what peoples take is on what way the prices will go? Obviously given our recent past I'm a bit hesitant to believe the first thing I read as the whole world is about spin these days and talking things up.

I have about 30% of what I'm willing to spend on the gaff in savings so I'm not in too bad of a position.

Ta.

You must first ask the question what you want to buy for. Is it an investment or is it for the long term to live in. Each might give you a different answer.

Personally I think prices will go down slightly as the property tax kicks in water rates are introduced and whatever else there maybe, Job losses and emigration will continue (job losses to a lesser extent) which will further stagnate the market.
Then there are the NAMA properties that are being held back (I don't know how many) along with Mortgage and Rent relief that the Government will have to look at.
Also the market some would say is still overpriced if you compare the average industrial wage x 4 against the average house price.

Against all that you have people saying that there is a shortage of property in Dublin (that could be coming from special interest groups) which will prevent the market from plummeting.

The international trading market would need to be looked at as a downturn there would mean that there wont be any job growth in any of the multinationals within Ireland but against that it would mean that there would be less emigration as there wont be as many jobs in other countries.
Australia is also going through a boom it would seem so if that bursts we could be seeing the return of all the emigrants who have saved all their money ready to buy at the first opportunity.

If you see a house you want to live in for the rest of your life and you have a secure job BUY. If not well your guess is as good as mine if not better.

jmayo

goz83 wrote: »

Because people are afraid they are going to go up, they will buy when they think prices have started to rise. Dublin prices have basically stabilised and the news of some houses (very few, i know) on the southside actually going up, is one of those signs that people will bite the bullet to.

That's how the property bubble grew so quickly. Fear and greed. Put the two together, add some cheap credit if it's available and you have a property market on the rise.

There is a hell of a lot of whatifs in there.

Forget the chance of cheap credit anytime soon.
The banks, particularly the Irish ones, will never be able to indulge in the cheap credit they did during the boom.

The big thing now is the availability of any credit.

For instance the recent announcement by PTSB is a bit of a joke.
Trust me with the amount of hoops they now make you jump through to even get an overdraft I can't see many getting their mortgages and even if they do their variable interest rates are big to counteract their tracker rate losses.

BTW the bubble years lending criteria and cheap credit were not the norm and will not be returned to any time soon.

Also forget the fear and greed argument.
The fear now is not that you will not get a house, the fear is that you buy a house for too much, lose your job and be saddled with the house whilst in negative equity.
The market sentiment has totally reversed and putting it mildly most of the ones who might have the where withall to buy aren't going to be suckered quiet as easily as some were during the boom/bubble.

goz83 wrote: »

They say prices will never hit the levels they did in 2007, but the truth is they will.

Ehh please look at Japanese property market for a pointer on this.

handlemaster

even people who bought last year certainly in th first half have property worth less than what they paid for them

Glenbhoy

handlemaster wrote: »

even people who bought last year certainly in th first half have property worth less than what they paid for them

Like everything else, that statement is partially true depending on location. There are many instances of the register showing that and probably at least as many showing the opposite.