Croke Park II preliminary Talks started today

beeno67

creedp wrote: »

Looking at OECD figures for 2011, income tax and SI as a % of GDP in Denmark was 25.3% while it was 10.5% in Ireland. Irish GDP in 2011 was €159bn. If we upped our income tax to Denmark level we would generate an additonal €23bn in taxation. Public Sector pay currently approx 18bn. A 50% increase would cost an extra 9bn leaving €14bn in the pot. Even if we consider GNP at €127bn in 2011 increasing income tax as a % of GNP to Danish GDP levels would generate an additional €19bn.

Basically 2 sides to the story - if we tax more and increase the PS to provide services in line with higher tax economies, this does not necessarily have to result in an increased deficit.

Fully admit these figures are back of envelope .. but simply want to point out that there are 2 not 1 side to every story and despite the impression you give you may not always have the absolute monopoly on having the correct and only view on everything.

You are talking income tax as a percentage of GDP. You want to increase tax by about 140% (from 10.5% of GDP to 25.3% GDP) This means you are saying increase our income tax rates to about 45% and 96%.

sharper

creedp wrote: »

Looking at OECD figures for 2011, income tax and SI as a % of GDP in Denmark was 25.3% while it was 10.5% in Ireland. Irish GDP in 2011 was €159bn. If we upped our income tax to Denmark level we would generate an additonal €23bn in taxation. Public Sector pay currently approx 18bn. A 50% increase would cost an extra 9bn leaving €14bn in the pot. Even if we consider GNP at €127bn in 2011 increasing income tax as a % of GNP to Danish GDP levels would generate an additional €19bn.

Ok taking your numbers as given (I haven't checked):

-The deficit in 2012 was of the order of 13bn. That only leaves you with €10bn to play with after funding our current level of public service.

- Increasing the public sector count leaves only €1bn

-You still have to implement universal free healthcare, free GP visits and the child care government subsidy. That's only three examples of the extra services the Danish government provides over the Irish one.

-The Irish capital spending budget has been gutted and that can't remain.

That just gives you some idea of the scale of the problem. Implementing the largest taxes of any other country in the world closes the deficit but doesn't give you anything close to the level of service they enjoy for their money.

ardmacha

Increasing the public sector count leaves only €1bn

At Danish levels of tax, a large part of your 9Bn would come straight back, so say 5Bn

-You still have to implement universal free healthcare, free GP visits and the child care government subsidy. That's only three examples of the extra services the Danish government provides over the Irish one.

What is all of this extra expenditure for except this kind of thing?

sharper

ardmacha wrote: »

At Danish levels of tax, a large part of your 9Bn would come straight back, so say 5Bn

If you're going to permit second order effects in the analysis then you have to it consistently and consider the very likely decrease of overall GDP by a large amount as well the extra cost of banking system capitalisation when people can't meet their debt obligations due to higher taxes.

You also have to account for the loss of 13bn which is being injected into the economy via external borrowing, that's gone and will reduce GDP. Then there's the problem of higher costs of business losing export jobs and MNCs.

Suddenly the calculations become a lot more complicated.

What is all of this extra expenditure for except this kind of thing?

Taking the hospital sector as an example the expenditure already covers paying the staff and running the hospitals, just that people pay to access it privately. If that private revenue stream goes away then it has to be met from government funds.

Also it takes more than people to deliver services, people need offices and facilities to work in and they need resources to consume. You can hire 1000 extra nurses but you need to build hospitals for them to work in, buy medicines to treat people with and keep the lights on.

It's quite clear from even simple calculations the Danish model would not fix our problems. The only way it could would be if for some reason people were willing to accept the highest levels of tax in the world in return for much less in government services than the Danes enjoy.

Also note:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Denmark#Transport

Private vehicles are increasingly used as a means of transport. Because of the high registration tax (180%) and VAT (25%), and the world's highest income tax rate, new cars are very expensive. The purpose of the tax is to discourage car ownership. Whether a smaller fleet of aging cars is better than a larger fleet of modern cars is a matter for debate, however as the car fleet has increased by 45% over the last 30 years the effect of high taxation on the fleet size seems small.

http://www.trm.dk/~/media/Files/Publication/English/EUprecidency%202012/Facts%20and%20Figures-netversion.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transport_in_Denmark

Due to its high level of reliability, 24-hour service and
great record of customer satisfaction, the Metro in Copenhagen was awarded “Best Metro” and “Best Driverless Metro” at the 2010 MetroRail Congress in London.

The Copenhagen metro is government run. How much will a 24 hour metro rail service which removes the need for people to own cars cost to run in Ireland?

It's pretty clear that even if you take a very optimistic view of tax revenue under the Danish model you're far far short of being able to deliver Danish level of services once you account for the deficit.

woodoo

sharper wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Denmark#Welfare_state



As of 2011 the Irish public sector was about 19% of the total workforce. As a starting point on the Denmark model we'd have to increase public sector numbers by over 50%.

How would the deficit look then?

But the irish public service is bloated with far too many staff???

kerryguy78

Godge wrote: »

Just read today that Bose Ireland are the latest to agree a 2% payrise this year for their employees. Incidentally the same report also stated that they had given the same payrise last year.

if workers get a payrise its from an employer that is making alot of money thanks to there excellent workforce. in the public sector their employer is broke so they have to take cuts, simple as that

Godge

kerryguy78 wrote: »

if workers get a payrise its from an employer that is making alot of money thanks to there excellent workforce. in the public sector their employer is broke so they have to take cuts, simple as that

So benchmarking in the good times was fine and if the good times return we can just give public servants big pay rises?

beeno67

Godge wrote: »

So benchmarking in the good times was fine and if the good times return we can just give public servants big pay rises?

Sure. And big pay cuts in the bad times

ardmacha

Sure. And big pay cuts in the bad times

Will you be giving the big pay cuts to those who got the big increases?

kerryguy78

i think the cuts should be made BUT the government is still spending the money the wrong way, they haven't a clue, some of the srude buisnessmen in da private sector would run rings around them

Tea drinker

sharper wrote: »

-You still have to implement universal free healthcare, free GP visits and the child care government subsidy. That's only three examples of the extra services the Danish government provides over the Irish one.

-The Irish capital spending budget has been gutted and that can't remain.

Also have to run a large defence force, equipped with modern jets etc.
24,200 personell, that's almost 2.5 times the size of ours, let alone the expensive items they have procured.

Tea drinker

kerryguy78 wrote: »

if workers get a payrise its from an employer that is making alot of money thanks to there excellent workforce. in the public sector their employer is broke so they have to take cuts, simple as that

1% this and last year for me. Yeah I have Cisco qualifications and experience out the azz

kerryguy78

I have got 2% raise this year and last year, our company is doing well through exports, a few years before this workers were layed off, xmas bonus taken from us, and some went on a 3 day week. If we had had refused all these measures would our company be there today? yes because we would get the door and they had tons of CV's on file.

creedp

sharper wrote: »

It's quite clear from even simple calculations the Danish model would not fix our problems. The only way it could would be if for some reason people were willing to accept the highest levels of tax in the world in return for much less in government services than the Danes enjoy.

Ah c'mon .. at least I freely admit the figures I was using were a seriously back of envelope job and I never claimed they were the solution to any problem. I was simply pointing out that your claim that increasing tax take and increasing govt funded services would not have to automatically increase a deficit.

However, I can only marvel at your powers of evaluation that you can assess all the variables involved in moving to a Danish styled system and definitely conclude it couldn't work. If only you could direct your powers towards achieving world peace.

creedp

kerryguy78 wrote: »

I have got 2% raise this year and last year, our company is doing well through exports, a few years before this workers were layed off, xmas bonus taken from us, and some went on a 3 day week. If we had had refused all these measures would our company be there today? yes because we would get the door and they had tons of CV's on file.

State in trouble due, construction bubble burst, banking meltdown, tax take down as tax on work reduced during the false boom time, understood my employer had to make cuts to help reduce deficit so accepted a 15% pay cut and the fact that staff number cut while work load increasing without protest. Result no one gives a sh1te, wont acknowledge any contribution given, and just demand more. Result demoralised and consequently when employer comes loooking for another 5.5% cut by agreement to appease the Troika, IBEC, political supporters, etc, etc.. tell them if they want it take it but dont expect me to support it

A quick and dirty summary

kerryguy78

creedp wrote: »

State in trouble due, construction bubble burst, banking meltdown, tax take down as tax on work reduced during the false boom time, understood my employer had to make cuts to help reduce deficit so accepted a 15% pay cut and the fact that staff number cut while work load increasing without protest. Result no one gives a sh1te, wont acknowledge any contribution given, and just demand more. Result demoralised and consequently when employer comes loooking for another 5.5% cut by agreement to appease the Troika, IBEC, political supporters, etc, etc.. tell them if they want it take it but dont expect me to support it

A quick and dirty summary

Fair point its not the workers fault that the employer is broke, there is waste in the public sector and alot of waste, as i have said the government is spending the money in the wrong way. Ppl on the dole sponging when there was more jobs than could be filled should have had the dole cut so they would have got off their lazy asses and got a job, they should be cut big time now

sharper

creedp wrote: »

Ah c'mon .. at least I freely admit the figures I was using were a seriously back of envelope job and I never claimed they were the solution to any problem. I was simply pointing out that your claim that increasing tax take and increasing govt funded services would not have to automatically increase a deficit.

Others have stated the solution to our problems is the Danish model that's what I'm addressing.

However, I can only marvel at your powers of evaluation that you can assess all the variables involved in moving to a Danish styled system and definitely conclude it couldn't work. If only you could direct your powers towards achieving world peace.

I've quite clearly stated I'm only doing a simply comparison however even that simple comparison quickly reveals that the literally highest levels of tax in the world only solves our problems if we are prepared to go without the same level of services those countries get.

Again I have to wonder what the heck you are doing in this discussion when you so consistently and blatantly ignore people's points and attack them instead.

This is the second time you've responded with the "Well aren't you so fantastic" style response when you found yourself unable to meet the argument you were presented with. You are fooling nobody.

sharper

Tea_Drinker mentioned the difference in military force between Denmark and Ireland

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_the_European_Union

For 2010 Ireland spent €933m and Denmark spent €3.5bn.

vinylbomb

Godge wrote: »

So benchmarking in the good times was fine and if the good times return we can just give public servants big pay rises?

You are fundamentally mixed up.

The public sector is not a profit centre, and as a result cannot return profit created to shareholders/owners/employees.

Benchmarking is now rightly recognized as a vote-buying exercise of the government of the day, in conjunction with unions feathering their nests.

I'm all for people recieving a fair wage for their work, but the fundamentals of public sector working life (stability, flex, pension) are being touted as valueless by some PS here, which just is not acceptable in the context of this arguement.

vinylbomb

ardmacha wrote: »

If we had the tax structure of Denmark we would not have a deficit.

If we were as rich in easily accessible hydrocarbons as the UAE we would not have a deficit.

If we had the Swiss banking system we would not have a deficit.

If we had South East Asia's sweatshops in our pocket we would not have a deficit.

If me auntie had balls..................................





Apologies for trivialising, but the line of argument I have just displayed is similar to what I'm encountering on this thread.
State a fact-> Have it rebutted with an anecdote or an at best wildly inaccurate assumption.

kerryguy78

vinylbomb wrote: »

You are fundementally mixed up.

The public sector is not a profit centre, and as a result cannot return profit created to shareholders/owners/employees.

Benchmarking is now rightly recognized as a vote-buying exercise of the government of the day, in conjunction with unions feathering their nests.

I'm all for people recieving a fair wage for their work, but the fundamentals of public sector working life (stability, flex, pension) are being touted as valueless by some PS here, which just is not acceptable in the context of this arguement.

I agree with you, but the vast amount in the public sector have lost touch with the reality that is the private sector. A friend of mine had a dentist appointment and was paid while she was at the dentists, yep she is public sector............

Vizzy

vinylbomb wrote: »

Benchmarking is now rightly recognized as a vote-buying exercise of the government of the day, in conjunction with unions feathering their nests.

I'll just ask the question that you and others are fond o

---

Link ??

woodoo

kerryguy78 wrote: »

I agree with you, but the vast amount in the public sector have lost touch with the reality that is the private sector. A friend of mine had a dentist appointment and was paid while she was at the dentists, yep she is public sector............

I worked in the private sector a decade ago and they has special allowance time that you could take off for things like dentist. Where i currently work in the public sector if i take time off to go to the dentist i will have to work that time up again.

kerryguy78

woodoo wrote: »

I worked in the private sector a decade ago and they has special allowance time that you could take off for things like dentist. Where i currently work in the public sector if i take time off to go to the dentist i will have to work that time up again.

That is very very rare in the private sector, and unless this girl was tellin a lie, which i doubt it, she said she gets paid for stuff like that. I have no problem with cops and nurses getting well paid and reekin the rewards coz their jobs are hard and at times thankless. There is loads and loads of admin not up to the job and are a waste of money.

Rightwing

kerryguy78 wrote: »

That is very very rare in the private sector, and unless this girl was tellin a lie, which i doubt it, she said she gets paid for stuff like that. I have no problem with cops and nurses getting well paid and reekin the rewards coz their jobs are hard and at times thankless. There is loads and loads of admin not up to the job and are a waste of money.

There are 2 different private sectors in the country.

The multinationals, and the rest.

Seeing as the MNCs pay so little tax, they can look after their employees.

vinylbomb

Vizzy wrote: »

I'll just ask the question that you and others are fond o

---

Link ??

Link to what?
What part of my statement needs quantification or clarity?

But sure what the hell. I'll bite.

An oldie but a goldie.
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1019286.shtml

woodoo

vinylbomb wrote: »

Link to what?
What part of my statement needs quantification or clarity?

But sure what the hell. I'll bite.

An oldie but a goldie.
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1019286.shtml

It will be the usual story of the semi state companies being included in the public service data. Skewing the results.

creedp

sharper wrote: »

You are fooling nobody.

As I'm entitled to my opinion .. pot and kettle!

Godge

kerryguy78 wrote: »

. There is loads and loads of admin not up to the job and are a waste of money.

Link?

This is completely made-up rubbish based on delusion.

Godge

vinylbomb wrote: »

Link to what?
What part of my statement needs quantification or clarity?

But sure what the hell. I'll bite.

An oldie but a goldie.
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1019286.shtml

One article by an opinionated blog in 2010 is enough to support a statement that

vinylbomb wrote: »

Benchmarking is now rightly recognized as a vote-buying exercise of the government of the day, in conjunction with unions feathering their nests.

2010 is hardly now.

Recognized is hardly one person's opinion.

If one person recognises that animal as a duck, but everyone else thinks it's a turkey, it hardly makes it a duck.

skafish

vinylbomb wrote: »

Benchmarking is now rightly recognized as a vote-buying exercise of the government of the day, in conjunction with unions feathering their nests.

As has been pointed out already, benchmarking gave the PS an average of 8.5%. The last round of paycuts meant that PS wages are now down in excess of 15%. IF it was a vote buying exercise, it was a very poor bargin.

woodoo

skafish wrote: »

As has been pointed out already, benchmarking gave the PS an average of 8.5%. The last round of paycuts meant that PS wages are now down in excess of 15%. IF it was a vote buying exercise, it was a very poor bargin.

Its hilarious that some people seem to have airbrushed the cuts the PS have already taken out of existence.

beeno67

woodoo wrote: »

Its hilarious that some people seem to have airbrushed the cuts the PS have already taken out of existence.

For some people increments have airbrushed the cuts out of existence.

beeno67

skafish wrote: »

As has been pointed out already, benchmarking gave the PS an average of 8.5%. The last round of paycuts meant that PS wages are now down in excess of 15%. IF it was a vote buying exercise, it was a very poor bargin.

Excess of 15%. Yeah right

barneystinson

beeno67 wrote: »

For some people increments have airbrushed the cuts out of existence.

Hardly, if they're being paid ~15% less than the contract they signed up to states they should be.

avalon68

kerryguy78 wrote: »

That is very very rare in the private sector, and unless this girl was tellin a lie, which i doubt it, she said she gets paid for stuff like that. I have no problem with cops and nurses getting well paid and reekin the rewards coz their jobs are hard and at times thankless. There is loads and loads of admin not up to the job and are a waste of money.

But there are also loads of nurses and guards not up to the job.....that point seems to always be forgotten when it comes to these professions. By all means, if someone does a good job then pay them well, if someone doesnt, then sack them, be they a nurse, teacher, guard or bin collector.

maryishere

kerryguy78 wrote: »

in the public sector their employer is broke so they have to take cuts, simple as that

+1. They are still very well paid, especially the middle and top public service.

donalg1

kerryguy78 wrote: »

I agree with you, but the vast amount in the public sector have lost touch with the reality that is the private sector. A friend of mine had a dentist appointment and was paid while she was at the dentists, yep she is public sector............

The Public Sector arent paid by the hour they are paid an annual salary, if she took the time off for the dentist chances are she would have to work this up.

Jawgap

donalg1 wrote: »

The Public Sector arent paid by the hour they are paid an annual salary, if she took the time off for the dentist chances are she would have to work this up.

I work in the PS and yes, you get a salary (at my grade) - you are allowed time for medical appointments, but only if it´s an emergency and you can´t take the p1$$ by saying your GP is in Athlone!

I, for one, am looking forward to reducing my hours to the 37 mentioned in CP2.1!

Godge

maryishere wrote: »

+1. They are still very well paid, especially the middle and top public service.

Link please to show 2012/13 figures to demonstrate that public servants in the middle and top are still very well paid?

Otherwise this is more of the rubbish permeating this thread.

Godge

Back on topic here, does anyone have or has seen the draft legislation that the nurses union have seen?

Or does anyone have a copy or information about the revised proposals?

It would be interesting to compare and see how far the government has backed down and to guess whether it will be enough to get the unions on side?

donegal11

The talks are a joke, from the rte site "It is understood there has been progress with SIPTU, with one proposal involving 1,000 additional intern positions for healthcare support staff to replace agency workers."

So SIPTU's big idea is getting more workers to work for next to nothing as interns while current well paid members sit back and watch their increments and pensions pile up doing the exact same work.

sarumite

Godge wrote: »

It would be interesting to compare and see how far the government has backed down and to guess whether it will be enough to get the unions on side?

Do we know for a fact that the government have backed down?

Riskymove

sarumite wrote: »

Do we know for a fact that the government have backed down?

the paycut is still part of the equation but seems to be clearer this time around that it is proposed to be restored in later years

some other issues have certainly been sotftened to try and get the paycut through - most notably on increments and premium payments

Godge

sarumite wrote: »

Do we know for a fact that the government have backed down?

Yes, for a start it has been widely reported that the pay cut will be restored and dates set for that. gardai and nurses will retain double pay on sunday. Those are known.

What is not known is how many other concessions they have made.

creedp

donegal11 wrote: »

The talks are a joke, from the rte site "It is understood there has been progress with SIPTU, with one proposal involving 1,000 additional intern positions for healthcare support staff to replace agency workers."

So SIPTU's big idea is getting more workers to work for next to nothing as interns while current well paid members sit back and watch their increments and pensions pile up doing the exact same work.

I know .. its terrible .. any agreement that achieves savings but does not involve cutting pay is a joke .. we want cuts .. we want cuts!

Riskymove

Godge wrote: »

Yes, for a start it has been widely reported that the pay cut will be restored and dates set for that.

actually it was part of the original proposal that pay be restored (for those under €100k) but there was no real clarity about how it would be done

maryishere

Godge wrote: »

Link please to show 2012/13 figures to demonstrate that public servants in the middle and top are still very well paid?

On Primetime it said that managers/ top public servants here were paid seven times what those at the bottom are paid - in Nordic countries it is three and a half times. I suppose if you are a public servant on 150k or 200k you may not consider that to be very well paid.

ardmacha

On Primetime it said that managers/ top public servants here were paid seven times what those at the bottom are paid - in Nordic countries it is three and a half times. I suppose if you are a public servant on 150k or 200k you may not consider that to be very well paid.

I think you are at cross-purposes here, you are referring to income distribution, Godge was talking about whether people in the PS were paid more than in other sectors of the Irish economy.

The amazing thing about Ireland is that people argue for socialism in PS pay, to each according their need and all that, while stoutly defending pay disparities elsewhere. That will simply result in a East/West German scenario where the able and talented on the socialist side will move to the market side.

donegal11

creedp wrote: »

I know .. its terrible .. any agreement that achieves savings but does not involve cutting pay is a joke .. we want cuts .. we want cuts!

Less cuts for current staff but at the expense of the lowest paid staff (healthcare support staff) entering there careers doing jobs that nurses wouldn't touch for potentially the dole HURRAY for the unions.