All Things Met Eireann Related Go in Here (MOD NOTE #1)

ninebeanrows

-- Also, it is not going to be thaaat bad until evening.

Munstermac

Which evening?

ME are showing a lot of rain in the midwest by noon tomorrow.

Aerohead

Agree with some comments about ME here, they have got this one soooooo wrong its beyond belief, I watched last night and Sat was the good day and Sun the bad one, as said how come they never ever admit they got it wrong, I had planned things for Saturday now have to cancel, not happy.

Schadenfreudia

Aerohead wrote: »

Agree with some comments about ME here, they have got this one soooooo wrong its beyond belief, I watched last night and Sat was the good day and Sun the bad one, as said how come they never ever admit they got it wrong, I had planned things for Saturday now have to cancel, not happy.

Their policy of not making any acknowledgement when they get it spectacularly wrong literally overnight can be very annoying.

I remember a while back they forecast snowmageddon one night for the next day and there was just a mild damp drizzle. RTE got a Met person on the radio and he justified their ignoring any reference to such miscasts by saying "our job is to make forecasts, not engage in post-mortems" - or words to that effect.

I still think a quick "sorry, our best shot last night was way off" would be polite.

Wanderer78

mad how forecasts have flipped in short time. low pressure systems must be a nightmare for forecasters

Schadenfreudia

Wanderer78 wrote: »

mad how forecasts have flipped in short time. low pressure systems must be a nightmare for forecasters

They are not a laugh a minute for those of us who'd like summer weather either!

Wanderer78

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

They are not a laugh a minute for those of us who'd like summer weather either!

hahaha true but you may have to move to another planet to achieve that

FWVT

Munstermac wrote: »

"Unfortunately it's the nature of our unique position on the outskirts of Europe with the Atlantic and the Gulf Stream to the west, cold to the north and mixed weather from the continent. Big fat melting pot of weather"

Yes I understand all that but we're talking about highly educated professionals here who managed to get the forecast 100% wrong from only 36 hours out and at the least unpredictable time of year.

To be honest they may as well just give us civilians the model data and we can work it out for ourselves.

Maybe its time that ME start issuing confidence ratings with their forecasts like they do in other countries.

1 to 5 with 1 being no confidence and 5 being totally confident.

At least then us ordinary punters will be forewarned.

Let me ask you this. How many other weekends were their forecasts RIGHT and your plans weren't scuppered? Did you come on here to say well done M.E.? Of course you didn't.

They are not responsible for the weather. They issue forecasts, but these forecasts are open to change as new data become available. The latest forecast is the one to go by, but always in the knowledge that it is open to change. In some setups this change can be larger than with others, and it seems especially so in this case. However you still have 24-36 hours to modify your plans so quit whinging and do it.

Wanderer78

FWVT wrote: »

Let me ask you this. How many other weekends were their forecasts RIGHT and your plans weren't scuppered? Did you come on here to say well done M.E.? Of course you didn't.

They are not responsible for the weather. They issue forecasts, but these forecasts are open to change as new data become available. The latest forecast is the one to go by, but always in the knowledge that it is open to change. In some setups this change can be larger than with others, and it seems especially so in this case. However you still have 24-36 hours to modify your plans so quit whinging and do it.

right that its, time to write that letter of disgust to me. fecken cant even produce the right weather for the weekend. disgusting creatures. rant over

Iancar29

Watch, learn , expand it to the size of the atmosphere.... and come back when you have solved it.

Discodog

I totally rely on forecasts as part of my business & apart from the rainfall radar, ME are a waste of time. Sky News are way more accurate that ME. For example a client called me on Thursday evening to say that according to the forecast it would be too wet to work on Friday. I reassured her that it would be fine.

The ME forecast, on the 6pm news, was for heavy, thundery showers merging into longer periods of rain. Sky News forecast a few light blustery showers & were totally right.

And before the ME fan club intervene yes I monitor the forecasts every single day. I also remeber a recent radio interview with an ME forecaster who rubbished phone apps like Arcus. I have been using it for a few months & it's excellent because it monitors the actual radar.

Wanderer78

Discodog wrote: »

I totally rely on forecasts as part of my business & apart from the rainfall radar, ME are a waste of time. Sky News are way more accurate that ME. For example a client called me on Thursday evening to say that according to the forecast it would be too wet to work on Friday. I reassured her that it would be fine.

The ME forecast, on the 6pm news, was for heavy, thundery showers merging into longer periods of rain. Sky News forecast a few light blustery showers & were totally right.

And before the ME fan club intervene yes I monitor the forecasts every single day. I also remeber a recent radio interview with an ME forecaster who rubbished phone apps like Arcus. I have been using it for a few months & it's excellent because it monitors the actual radar.

im sure you could debate that but i watch forecasts from both me and the met office uk. met office uk is highly funded compared to me but i dont think me do a bad job at all considering their funding and resources. i also think me have a better idea of local influencing factors on our weather than met office uk. we re lucky to have me and the hard working people there but do consider the funding deficit they have compared to others.

Discodog

I have come to believe that they may deliberately issue a fairly vague forecast because they need to promote their premium phone line.

Wanderer78

Discodog wrote: »

I have come to believe that they may deliberately issue a fairly vague forecast because they need to promote their premium phone line.

yea im hearing you. im afraid you ll have to complain to our politicians about that one. public services should not be businesses. we pay enough taxes! i do know what you mean though about forecasting and business. i know a couple that have lost tens of thousands maybe even hundreds of thousands over the years due to poor forecasting. they have since wrapped up the business. it was just getting too much i think. glad actually. was making them ill.

ninebeanrows

Sky News just use a graphic representation of the EURO4 model with text which looks at EC and EURO4. Met Eireann don't have luxury of these fancy graphics.

The EURO4 is a lesser model than the EC and HIRLAM that are used in Met E.

Unfortunately you are just cherry picking events. If you followed the UK forecast for cloud cover in the last two years , youd be fuming, it is always wrong, and only recently they sent a message to say their parameterizationr was wrong!

Message is that met eireann, have simple icon forecasts which cover vast areas, terms like scattered showers, widespread showers, sunny spells,.. Can all be interpreted differently.

I would guess a move to a graphic system more similar to the BBC will occur in the next 12-24 more months

Discodog

Weathercheck wrote: »

Sky News just use a graphic representation of the EURO4 model with text which looks at EC and EURO4. Met Eireann don't have luxury of these fancy graphics.

The EURO4 is a lesser model than the EC and HIRLAM that are used in Met E.

Unfortunately you are just cherry picking events. If you followed the UK forecast for cloud cover in the last two years , youd be fuming, it is always wrong, and only recently they sent a message to say their parameterizationr was wrong!

Message is that met eireann, have simple icon forecasts which cover vast areas, terms like scattered showers, widespread showers, sunny spells,.. Can all be interpreted differently.

I would guess a move to a graphic system more similar to the BBC will occur in the next 12-24 more months

I am not cherry picking. My business relies on the forecast. I look at the models every evening. My only real concern is rainfall & I think that applies to the majority of the public. ME do use a short term forecast graphic, on their website. I have this on my phone but I have given up using it as it's often inaccurate even for an hour ahead.

Any investment should focus on a more reliable, long range radar.

ninebeanrows

'Long range radar' ?

Discodog

Weathercheck wrote: »

'Long range radar' ?

Shannon has proved to be unreliable. Ideally, if the technology allows, we need a radar with as long a range as possible. The majority of our rain comes from the West & South West. It's why the rainfall forecasts for the West of Ireland are unreliable as we can't see what's coming.

It won't happen because it doesn't effect Dublin.

FWVT

Discodog wrote: »

Shannon has proved to be unreliable. Ideally, if the technology allows, we need a radar with as long a range as possible. The majority of our rain comes from the West & South West. It's why the rainfall forecasts for the West of Ireland are unreliable as we can't see what's coming.

It won't happen because it doesn't effect Dublin.

The technology doesn't allow.

Why the constant Dublin v Rest of the Country record? If the weather is affecting your business so much and you seem to know so much abiut it then maybe consider changing your business to forecasting. Then we can set up a thread here called All things Dis & Co dog

Iancar29

Wanderer78 wrote: »

im sure you could debate that but i watch forecasts from both me and the met office uk. met office uk is highly funded compared to me but i dont think me do a bad job at all considering their funding and resources. i also think me have a better idea of local influencing factors on our weather than met office uk. we re lucky to have me and the hard working people there but do consider the funding deficit they have compared to others.

Prime answer right here. Met Éireann have a fraction of the budget that the Met Office do. Their whole forecast floor is not in place to give all their time to the TV forecasts. Its separated into 3. We have to give them credit doing the work for the limited resources and indeed Radar sites.


I would agree that having a model based graphically representation on the tv forecasts would be better than the symbols, but it would also lead to people complaining about the same kinda thing.. " that rain was not over my house on the 6pm forecast, it was 20 miles north ! .. etc "

Wanderer78

Iancar29 wrote: »

I would agree that having a model based graphically representation on the tv forecasts would be better than the symbols, but it would also lead to people complaining about the same kinda thing.. " that rain was not over my house on the 6pm forecast, it was 20 miles north ! .. etc "

it makes me laugh how people give out about the 'inaccuracies' in forecasting. people are nuts!

Discodog

FWVT wrote: »

The technology doesn't allow.

Why the constant Dublin v Rest of the Country record? If the weather is affecting your business so much and you seem to know so much abiut it then maybe consider changing your business to forecasting. Then we can set up a thread here called All things Dis & Co dog

Because Dublin, due to it's position, gets very accurate rain predictions - you can follow the rain across the country. In the West we rely on the distance out to sea. I can get pretty accurate forecasts but not from ME unless I pay them.

FWVT

Discodog wrote: »

Because Dublin, due to it's position, gets very accurate rain predictions - you can follow the rain across the country. In the West we rely on the distance out to sea. I can get pretty accurate forecasts but not from ME unless I pay them.

Dublin has good coverage because it has a radar station but also benefits from the UK radar (one of which is in Belfast). I think you are in Galway? so you benefit from the Shannon radar. It's not M.E.'s fault you live where you live but even with the speed that some rainbands travel at you still have a few hours' notice that they're on the way from the west (while we in the east get a bit more).

If your business is so weather-sensitive then move, though I reckon it'd not as bad as you make out. Their hi-res 9-hr Harmonie model that you complain of is part of a larger consortium, so unfortunately your dig at them in that respect is misplaced.

Again, we never hear of the vast majority of times that the forecasts and data are sufficient. We are a country of whingers and moaners. The next argument I'm waiting to hear is a reference to Irish Water and M.E.

Discodog

FWVT wrote: »

Dublin has good coverage because it has a radar station but also benefits from the UK radar (one of which is in Belfast). I think you are in Galway? so you benefit from the Shannon radar. It's not M.E.'s fault you live where you live but even with the speed that some rainbands travel at you still have a few hours' notice that they're on the way from the west (while we in the east get a bit more).

If your business is so weather-sensitive then move, though I reckon it'd not as bad as you make out. Their hi-res 9-hr Harmonie model that you complain of is part of a larger consortium, so unfortunately your dig at them in that respect is misplaced.

Again, we never hear of the vast majority of times that the forecasts and data are sufficient. We are a country of whingers and moaners. The next argument I'm waiting to hear is a reference to Irish Water and M.E.

Moving a business that serves the local community. That's a good idea :cool:

I don't care what model ME or anyone else uses. All I am interested in is knowing the duration of rain & I don't bother looking at ME's forecast because I find that other sources are more accurate.

Galway is not served well in ME's regional forecasts in that it is on the dividing line between two forecasts.

You ignore the fact that ME will provide a more accurate forecast if we pay for it so the data is available.

Thargor

Jesus they have to get rid of the MS Paint text box with "IRELAND" and a big green arrow pointing at the country on their maps, its a joke! Is there any other country on the planet that does this in their national weather service?

Munstermac

"Let me ask you this. How many other weekends were their forecasts RIGHT and your plans weren't scuppered? Did you come on here to say well done M.E.? Of course you didn't.

They are not responsible for the weather. They issue forecasts, but these forecasts are open to change as new data become available. The latest forecast is the one to go by, but always in the knowledge that it is open to change. In some setups this change can be larger than with others, and it seems especially so in this case. However you still have 24-36 hours to modify your plans so quit whinging and do it."

Quite a few actually. I find that the ones they get right are the ones that any of us with a mild degree of interest in the weather can make a pretty good stab at whereas the difficult ones where us mere mortals need help are the ones the pros have great difficulty with as well.

Not to mention that fiasco earlier in the year when they issued a 'Status Red' for a storm to hit the midwest resulting in all schools staying closed and people including myself taking a day off work in order to protect myself, my family and my property. The reality? Not even a breeze. I drove the kids to the child minder that morning looking at the perfectly still trees wondering at what point do these people become accountable for their mistakes. As I said if mistakes were acknowledged, and a 'confidence rating system' introduced I could live with it but once a forecast is made and the time passes MEs attitude is 'it's not our problem.'

Do these people get paid or is it just a hobby for them? Oh and who pays them?

As for the rest of your post you're basically saying that it's their job to forecast the weather but it's not their fault if they get it wrong because their job is hard and if they do get it ridiculously wrong (in this weekend's case they were still wrong less than 12 hours out!) people shouldn't pull them up on it .....because their job is hard.

Iancar29

Munstermac wrote: »

Not to mention that fiasco earlier in the year when they issued a 'Status Red' for a storm to hit the midwest resulting in all schools staying closed and people including myself taking a day off work in order to protect myself, my family and my property.

It's called being safe rather than sorry . http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/met-eireann-we-can-sometimes-overdo-weather-warnings-658208.html

That storm could've easily produced a dry slot sting jet and could've been as bad as the previous year when the Cork Train station roof got blown off .

Munstermac wrote: »

Do these people get paid or is it just a hobby for them? Oh and who pays them?

What an utterly stupid question.

I recommend you produce your own detailed forecasts and see how well they verify.

Munstermac

It's called being wrong. In fact 100% wrong.

Any idiot can decide to err on the side of caution but these people are supposed to be scientists who specialise in this area.

Again though my main issue is that when they give forecasts they almost always give the definite impression that 'this is what is going to happen' rather than 'this is what might happen' which would hurt their ego as scientific professionals who can carry out their job well i.e. forecast the weather.

"What an utterly stupid question." Very mature.

"I recommend you produce your own detailed forecasts and see how well they verify."

Why should I. I already pay people who are supposedly trained in this area to do it for me.

And to be honest when I do look at the data and make an educated guess I'm usually not far off over 2 / 3 days.

But the issue here as I've said before is accountability.

What are ME supposed to do? Forecast the weather as accurately as they can for the benefit of people in this country.

If there is a doubt about their confidence in a forecast then they should swallow their pride and say so, even if that means admitting that they're not sure what TOMORROW'S weather will be nevermind 5 days time.

Is that seriously too much to ask??

FWVT

Munstermac wrote: »

It's called being wrong. In fact 100% wrong.

Any idiot can decide to err on the side of caution but these people are supposed to be scientists who specialise in this area.

Again though my main issue is that when they give forecasts they almost always give the definite impression that 'this is what is going to happen' rather than 'this is what might happen' which would hurt their ego as scientific professionals who can carry out their job well i.e. forecast the weather.

"What an utterly stupid question." Very mature.

"I recommend you produce your own detailed forecasts and see how well they verify."

Why should I. I already pay people who are supposedly trained in this area to do it for me.

And to be honest when I do look at the data and make an educated guess I'm usually not far off over 2 / 3 days.

But the issue here as I've said before is accountability.

What are ME supposed to do? Forecast the weather as accurately as they can for the benefit of people in this country.

If there is a doubt about their confidence in a forecast then they should swallow their pride and say so, even if that means admitting that they're not sure what TOMORROW'S weather will be nevermind 5 days time.

Is that seriously too much to ask??

You're talking complete rubbish and exaggerating to try to strengthen your point. I have many times heard them telling us that their confidence is low and to keep tuned/consult the website for updates. They have done this several times that I can remember.

The rest of your rant is just your opinion and cannot be backed up by hard proof. I suggest you go to their verification page http://www.met.ie/forecasts/forecast-accuracy.asp to see independently-compiled stats on their forecasts. Their temperature forecasts are running at around the 80-90% verification range.

Munstermac

"You're talking complete rubbish and exaggerating to try to strengthen your point."

"The rest of your rant is just your opinion and cannot be backed up by hard proof."

Details, examples, proof??

You ME fanboys really take the biscuit!!

It must be the only profession in this country where requesting / expecting accountability is seen as unnecessary ranting.

And in terms of their verification page yes ME get top marks on 'timeliness' and 'availability' stats and their temperature accuracy is just about 'ok' but where are all the other stats that matter like wind speed, rainfall levels etc, etc?