All Things Met Eireann Related Go in Here (MOD NOTE #1)

Storm 10

Well I still cant get over the change that happened over the weekend, all week they said that last Saturday was going to be the best day and Sunday the worst, then on Friday night they changed it to the other way around with Saturday the worst day, what gets me is the never ever say what happened to cause this, think of all the people who tune in and say we will head to someplace on Saturday as Sunday is a washout and vice a versa, its very frustrating.

Oneiric 3

Munstermac wrote: »

Any idiot can decide to err on the side of caution but these people are supposed to be scientists who specialise in this area.

Unfortunately, Meteorology, as with all sciences, is based on probabilities rather than pure fact so will never be truly precise. I haven't seen the forecast that is being discussed but given how volatile atmospheric forces are in this part of the world, it is inevitable that wrong forecasts will be issued on occasion. This is part and parcel of the job that comes with being a Meteorologist, not just here in Ireland, but pretty much in most parts of the world too.

Munstermac wrote: »

But the issue here as I've said before is accountability.

Is that seriously too much to ask??

This is more a political question but the Irish Civil Service, not just Met Eireann, are heavily steeped in bureaucracy which arms them with an impunity that is not seen, and would not be acceptable, in any other western democracy. This is not the fault of the ordinary workers themselves who work within the civil service but the fault of archaic Government policy designed soley to protect those lodged on the highest rungs from accountability.

Schadenfreudia

My beef with ME (and it's not a major one ) is the failure to even refer to or make the slightest apology for forecasts that turn out totally wrong (literally) overnight.

I'm not saying they are not as good as any other forecaster, in my experience they are the best at forecasting - certainly in relation to here in Dublin - can't speak for anywhere else.

But when you go to bed hearing that tomorrow is going to be a cloudless blistering day with 24C - and you wake up to heavy rain and an easterly wind and it's 12 degrees - it is intensely irritating to hear ME forecasting a cold wet day at 8am without any reference to the forecasts they issued last night!

It is more than irritating - it is ignorant and unacceptable, IMHO.

Harry Palmr

Amazingly inaccurate graphic for today's weather on the met.ie site yesterday - sun with the odd shower being the theme.

Its been raining all day in Waterford.

Reckless Abandonment

It there a radar not working.. Returns on ME site look different from UK met

Schadenfreudia

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Amazingly inaccurate graphic for today's weather on the met.ie site yesterday - sun with the odd shower being the theme.

Its been raining all day in Waterford.

And then some! The ME radar shows some very heavy and prolonged rain falling in the SE - Kilkenny county got it especially heavy for an hour or two and up as far as south Wicklow.

Some shower!

Munstermac

This is the kind of thing I was thinking of in terms of a 'confidence index'

Look a the forecasts starting from Tuesday (Mardi).

meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-france/metropole

Straight away you know how confident in their own forecasts the meteorologists are.

Is it too much to ask for ME to adopt something similar or would that risk hurting their infallible image??

frogloch

At least Siobhan ryan on the weather forecast after 6 o'clock news admitted that the rain came further inland in the south east than they thought it would. So they must be listening. How much rain did she say fell in wexford?

Musicman2000

A lot of farmers got caught out with Todays rain that were harvesting barley and silage down around the south east.

Iancar29

frogloch wrote: »

At least Siobhan ryan on the weather forecast after 6 o'clock news admitted that the rain came further inland in the south east than they thought it would. So they must be listening. How much rain did she say fell in wexford?

Yeah none of the hi res models had that band clipping the SE . Summer Lows just don't go down well with the models.

frogloch

Musicman2000 wrote: »

A lot of farmers got caught out with Todays rain that were harvesting barley and silage down around the south east.

Yea I know I am one of them. Contractor cut silage Thursday morning and all the weather websites were saying nothing about rain till Saturday evening. But what can you do?:(

Wanderer78

met office uk had yesterdays low since thursday on their models but there was confusion of its track until the last minute

delahuntv

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

My beef with ME (and it's not a major one ) is the failure to even refer to or make the slightest apology for forecasts that turn out totally wrong (literally) overnight.

I'm not saying they are not as good as any other forecaster, in my experience they are the best at forecasting - certainly in relation to here in Dublin - can't speak for anywhere else.

But when you go to bed hearing that tomorrow is going to be a cloudless blistering day with 24C - and you wake up to heavy rain and an easterly wind and it's 12 degrees - it is intensely irritating to hear ME forecasting a cold wet day at 8am without any reference to the forecasts they issued last night!

It is more than irritating - it is ignorant and unacceptable, IMHO.

Its a FORECAST - check the meaning.

Suppose we should get angry at every newspaper tipster that gives horse racing forecasts and get them wrong 90% of the time?

Atmosphere moves - accurate forecast of weather in a country like ireland is about 3-5 hours. From then it loses accuracy - hence why you get various "models" giving different outcomes and it's a met officer's position to guess the most likely outcome into the future.

In the current wave of fast moving systems and the jetsream overhead, accurate forecasting of 2 days is nigh on impossible - even check back on mt's forecasts and see how widely inaccurate they were 3 days / 4 days out over the past few weeks of the current pattern.

That's life in a climate like ireland - but BLAMING met eireann and then thinking they should apologise - we'll that's just plain stupid.

Wanderer78

i more or less ignore long range forecasts, i.e. anything from 4/5 days out. too inaccurate. short range is fairly good though.

Schadenfreudia

delahuntv wrote: »

Its a FORECAST - check the meaning.

I clearly set out the parameters of the limited cases where an apology for/reference to a mistake is reasonably expected.

I have no need to "check the meaning" - that is the ME defence of ignorance and lack of customer focus - as I have already pointed out.

Read the post you are replying to.

That's life in a climate like ireland - but BLAMING met eireann and then thinking they should apologise - we'll that's just plain stupid.

I explicitly did not blame ME for getting forecasts wrong.

Again, read what you are responding to before bandying the word "stupid" about the place :cool:

Schadenfreudia

delahuntv wrote: »

Suppose we should get angry at every newspaper tipster that gives horse racing forecasts and get them wrong 90% of the time?

You appear to imply that ME forecasts are of the same provenance as racing tips?

You really think they are that bad?

smellslikeshoes

Anyone notice today that the Met.ie rainfall radar was not picking up on the rain very well? There was a few times today when the radar was showing no rain when there was still a decent amount falling.

Schadenfreudia

smellslikeshoes wrote: »

Anyone notice today that the Met.ie rainfall radar was not picking up on the rain very well? There was a few times today when the radar was showing no rain when there was still a decent amount falling.

Indeed I did; here in the shadow of the Wicklow/Dublin hills I often see rain on the radar when none is actually falling - today I noticed we were shown to be dry even though it has been raining since 4am!

delahuntv

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

I clearly set out the parameters of the limited cases where an apology for/reference to a mistake is reasonably expected.

I have no need to "check the meaning" - that is the ME defence of ignorance and lack of customer focus - as I have already pointed out.

Read the post you are replying to.





I explicitly did not blame ME for getting forecasts wrong.

Again, read what you are responding to before bandying the word "stupid" about the place :cool:

Can you give me the example you talk about "cloudless day 24 degrees" and then it being a day of "heavy rain and 12 degrees"

A little ott? Hence you seem to blame met eireann and then you expect an apology?

As I said, a rather stupid post.

piuswal

Firstly I'm responding to this recent" Very bad forecast", apology or not, from a distance; NW France to be precise and I have come to the discussion towards the end rather than the beginning, so I may be missing some of the detail.

For what it's worth;

Met Eireann produce weather forecasts using output from a variety of imperfect models.
Updated data and later model runs can and do, sometimes, produce significantly different forecasts.
Sometimes the difference is simply due to the spatial distribution of the parameter, usually rain.
Ireland occupies a very small area on the surface of the globe and yes there are very fine resolution models but relatively small spatial displacements can and do make a huge difference to forecasts, particularly in such a volatile weather region that Ireland occupies.

Notwithstanding all of the above, when the forecast, in the next 24h rs, is for sunny and 24 degrees and the actual is 12 degrees and rain, I do think reference should be made to what happened, as Siobhan Ryan did, and that should be that.
A short explanation is all that is needed.

Schadenfreudia

delahuntv wrote: »

Can you give me the example you talk about "cloudless day 24 degrees" and then it being a day of "heavy rain and 12 degrees"

A little ott? Hence you seem to blame met eireann and then you expect an apology?

As I said, a rather stupid post.

It was an example of a forecast I recall from a summer some years back. There are others.

What's your point - other than to call my posts "stupid"?

Harry Palmr

Met error strike again. Today was supposed to start at its best away from the SW corner but here in Waterford the day brightened up from a dull start, only now is the cloud cover from the west taking over.

delahuntv

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

It was an example of a forecast I recall from a summer some years back. There are others.

What's your point - other than to call my posts "stupid"?

Some YEARS back? Ah jaysus, you don't half hold a grudge?

delahuntv

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Met error strike again. Today was supposed to start at its best away from the SW corner but here in Waterford the day brightened up from a dull start, only now is the cloud cover from the west taking over.

Met.ie forecast yesterday said today would be best of weekend with sunny periods most areas with southwest area experiencing more cloud and some light rain as day progressed - from what I experienced this was 100% correct.

(I have several retail outlets around the country and weather can affect business and reports from stores give weather conditions of the day - I love current weather!! )

Schadenfreudia

delahuntv wrote: »

Some YEARS back? Ah jaysus, you don't half hold a grudge?

No. I was giving an example which was described as "stupid".

Schadenfreudia

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Met error strike again. Today was supposed to start at its best away from the SW corner but here in Waterford the day brightened up from a dull start, only now is the cloud cover from the west taking over.

Ah Harry! Don't make any criticism of ME here, however mild...:rolleyes:

droidman123

Mt cranium predicted a storm for tomorrow,not gonna happen.Ken ring predicts the end of the world every year,postman Pat in Donegal tells us the robins are eating berries so its gonna be a winter wonderland......and last but not least met eireann predict the weather......all of them wrong and all of them chancers.I said it before and I will say it again,Ireland's weather cannot be predicted for more than 3 days at the most.why people are consistently surprised by this is beyond me.

Schadenfreudia

droidman123 wrote: »

Ireland's weather cannot be predicted for more than 3 days at the most.why people are consistently surprised by this is beyond me.

Me too.

weisses

delahuntv wrote: »

I have several retail outlets around the country and weather can affect business and reports from stores give weather conditions of the day - I love current weather!!

I'm guessing you are not in the Ice cream business :P

JCX BXC

In fairness I find MT to be fairly accurate. Maybe a little bit off on the locationing of things but fairly accurate none the less.