Cold Spell Discussion (Ireland): Cold/Frosty/Icy with Snow for some

flanzer

Weathercheck wrote: »

ECM is good at T24 and T48hrs

Cold nice and south.

Expect MET to update forecasts to highlight increased risk of snow in coming hours.

It would irresponsible of RTE/Met Eireann not to mention this in the Six One weather bulletin....My shaking fist awaits

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

Wouldn't it be turning back to rain though at low levels apart from in the north as it pivots? Driving conditions will be pretty awful either way.

I don't think it will apart from in some eastern coastal districts. (going of current data)

Even in these places it might not if the EC is correct.

JanuarySnowstor

The 96hrs is brilliant as it stands but a lot could go wrong from there
One thing that has happened over the last 24 hours is the lack of an Easterly influence. Basically it remains cold enough for snow just purely because the atlantic is very cold.
More importantly if we lose the Easterly feed we need lower uppers as dewpoints will rise.

bb1234567

Is this really happening ?! All this snow talk came on so suddenly:eek:

Iancar29

t|nt|n wrote: »

Did it but nothing showed up

Yep sorry lads , just messaged him there, the programmers used #iesnow instead , make sure geolocation is on... my 2nd test worked there , takes 2 mins to update

maquiladora

Looks messy at 96 hours. All main models a bit different here with how they handle these lows. And minor differences will make big differences. I think this Sunday/Monday won't be resolved until tomorrow.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

I don't think it will apart from in some eastern coastal districts. (going of current data)

Even in these places it might not if the EC is correct.

Yeah I noticed ECM is better than NAE. Will be a bit of a nowcast tomorrow.

Courtesy Flush

Quick question
How up to date is the RTE weather forecast after the 6 and 9 o'clock news ?

BEASTERLY

12z ECM, Arctic high ridging into Scandi.... WTF Atleast its not following the GFS.

maquiladora

Courtesy Flush wrote: »

Quick question
How up to date is the RTE weather forecast after the 6 and 9 o'clock news ?

The late radio forecast (is it 11:55?) will be the most up to date.

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

12z ECM, Arctic high ridging into Scandi.... WTF Atleast its not following the GFS.

Looks like a halfway house between the UKMO and GFS. But the differences between the models at 96 puts a question mark after everything beyond that for me.

dacogawa

Courtesy Flush wrote: »

Quick question
How up to date is the RTE weather forecast after the 6 and 9 o'clock news ?

To my knowledge the 6pm is done with the 12h charts & the 9pm is done with the 18h charts, so 9pm more up to date

SnowDrifts

Iancar29 wrote: »

Yep sorry lads , just messaged him there, the programmers used #iesnow instead , make sure geolocation is on... my 2nd test worked there , takes 2 mins to update

Very handy Ian, cheers.

Does anyone know when we should start to see DPs falling tonight? Still very high even for snow on mountains.

icesnowfrost

Wen talking about altitude and above sea level is it normally in feet or metres

maquiladora

120 to 144 looks a bit weird on the ECM. This is very different to the 12Z at that stage yesterday, so if it's changed like that in 24 hours, it will probably look very different again tomorrow.

JanuarySnowstor

The lack of comment on the ECM sums up the situation
I dont really know what to make of it.
As I said earlier taken at face value it's good and would lead to a lot of snow.
HOWEVER, the smallest of downgrades from here would leave us in a sleety if not rainy mix

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

120 to 144 looks a bit weird on the ECM. This is very different to the 12Z at that stage yesterday, so if it's changed like that in 24 hours, it will probably look very different again tomorrow.

As a matter of interest how has this Easterly feed disappeared? I wonder if this encroachment of air from the west has the models a little mystified.

gurramok

BBC link of Wales warning, watch the 2nd video thats where they have snow over the East tomorrow morning, about 1min into video. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-21063003

maquiladora

SnowDrifts wrote: »

Very handy Ian, cheers.

Does anyone know when we should start to see DPs falling tonight? Still very high even for snow on mountains.

Should be getting to 0 or below between 3am-6am.

Deep Easterly

Weathercheck wrote: »

Tomorrow could be a very severe snow event for many areas. I feel the underplay from the Met may be excessive.

People should know it's probable it will snow in many areas tomorrow with possible sig accumulations.

Yet nobody has a clue.

Gerry's forecast at 5pm covered this, with sleet and some snowfall for N Leinster/Ulster/N Connacht.

Any significant accumulation, if it does happen, will most probably be confined to high ground. Some slushy stuff at lower levels? possible, but excessive, I would very much doubt.

patneve2

the snow falling over central england could benefit us

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

As a matter of interest how has this Easterly feed disappeared? I wonder if this encroachment of air from the west has the models a little mystified.

12Z yesterday sent a strong low southeast which set up a nice easterly for us, now it's handling these low differently.

dacogawa

gurramok wrote: »

BBC link of Wales warning, watch the 2nd video thats where they have snow over the East tomorrow morning, about 1min into video. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-21063003

Right, that's it, I'm staying up all night

maquiladora

dacogawa wrote: »

Right, that's it, I'm staying up all night

You'd be better off getting up early. Nothin goin to happen until the early hours tomorrow.

LoadofCROC

gurramok wrote: »

BBC link of Wales warning, watch the 2nd video thats where they have snow over the East tomorrow morning, about 1min into video. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-21063003

Oh I like what I see...I like it a lot!!!! :D:D
But will it happen???

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

You'd be better off getting up early. Nothin goin to happen until the early hours tomorrow.

Im up at 6 for work, that will do

davidsr20

Maq it's funny one post upgrade the next doesn't look good it's hard keep up! Lol

steveLFC24

t|nt|n wrote: »

Im up at 6 for work, that will do

I've a fecking exam tomorrow So I guess at least I'll be up early.

BEASTERLY

Flow a bit slack @ t168 on the 12z ECM. But then again the overall picture is pretty good, large Arctic high ridging south to our north.

maquiladora

davidsr20 wrote: »

Maq it's funny one post upgrade the next doesn't look good it's hard keep up! Lol

ECM is good up to 72 hours.