Cold Spell Discussion (Ireland): Cold/Frosty/Icy with Snow for some

dacogawa

ECM looks magic! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013011812/ECM0-48.GIF?18-0

fontenoy7

It may be just over 1 degree in Blanchardstown but that is why it is sleeting and not snowing....temp may drop but a degree is a lot...:mad::mad::mad:

JanuarySnowstor

Awesome ECM at 48hrs, same as UKMO with -8 uppers draped across the country
The predicted 850's for Sat / Sun have seen a large upgrade today
Next frame is key..

snaps

Supercell wrote: »

Temps on the rise here, currently 3.1C, highest of the day. Probably in the warm sector by now, hope its short lived

same here in mayo, was 4.2c earler, now 6.5c

Mr November

dacogawa wrote: »

Nice vids! Going to head up there in the morning, all the videos have 100% convinced me it's worth it, I hope the GF likes it, I don't fancy a "my feet are cold" morning lol

Well... it's was pretty wild today. Road up is OK at the moment but was whiting over when I was heading home. Absolutely freezing cold coming back down (on the bike though) with wind and snow in your face! Walking wise, it's nice and sheltered in the once you're in and around the forest. But you'd wana be well wrapped up anyway.
Car's not making it beyond the lower car park earlier. Can only imagine, it'll be worse tomorrow.
You might have to walk from Lamb Doyles!

Pangea

Been 1c here all day yet no snow lieing
0.4c now

Rougies

fontenoy7 wrote: »

It may be just over 1 degree in Blanchardstown but that is why it is sleeting and not snowing....temp may drop but a degree is a lot...:mad::mad::mad:

Actually it's because the dew point is too high. 1 or 2c is plenty low for proper snow with the right dew point.

JanuarySnowstor

at 72hrs, snow moving across the country
We now have agreement between all 3 models that Ireland will get atlantic snowfall on Monday.
When last has this happened ??

fontenoy7

Meteo france has snow for Dublin tomorrow, sunday and monday (albeit light) and they are much more accurate generally then Irish or Brit forecasters. They forecast the fastnet race disaster when the Irish AND Brit forecasts mentioned only moderate winds, They said there would be force 10 winds and so it proved. Bilan (result) 9 dead.

downwiththatsor

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

at 72hrs, snow moving across the country
We now have agreement between all 3 models that Ireland will get atlantic snowfall on Monday.
When last has this happened ??

Is say 1986 or 1987 for the South West anyway?

ninebeanrows

Up to 2.0c in Howth.

Looks like game will be paused now until nearer morning. 3/6am when subzero dewpoints finally get in.

rilz

Complete whiteout here. Snow lying no prob on coast. Blizzard conditions now.

stephenjmcd

Im in bray, so what chance do we have of some decent snow between now and monday

pistolpetes11

Weathercheck wrote: »

Up to 2.0c in Howth.

Looks like game will be paused now until nearer morning. 3/6am when subzero dewpoints finally get in.

What you making of this ECM run , after a good UKMO Im pretty happy with the outlook !

Hight's building in greenland ,

Lows undercutting ,

I think the hint of AH trying to move up looks a lot more flat at 72 anyway

average_runner

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

at 72hrs, snow moving across the country
We now have agreement between all 3 models that Ireland will get atlantic snowfall on Monday.
When last has this happened ??

Not so sure about it will happen. Think might be a dusting for parts but not country wide.

JanuarySnowstor

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Is say 1986 or 1987 for the South West anyway?

I think you are spot on
I remember then getting snow in Cork from a Southwesterly
So it is possible, but very very rare

M.T. Cranium

I think most reading or lurking here realize this, but today was never going to be much of a snow day south of Ulster, conditions are rapidly improving through Saturday, my updated forecast thoughts in the ramping thread and as a posted forecast update. Basically 70% chance snow for most areas through Monday, the average citizen will see 2-4 cm if that helps, more if said average citizen gets in car and drives up a nearby hill. Some lucky souls will see 10-30 cm and a few unlucky ones not much just traces. Coastal Kerry may never get cold enough and southeast corner at sea level not too favoured either.

Mr Cumulonimbus

M2 buoy at 6pm: temp 2.7, DP 1.8 (4pm 1.3, 5pm 1.7).

MUSEIST

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think most reading or lurking here realize this, but today was never going to be much of a snow day south of Ulster, conditions are rapidly improving through Saturday, my updated forecast thoughts in the ramping thread and as a posted forecast update. Basically 70% chance snow for most areas through Monday, the average citizen will see 2-4 cm if that helps, more if said average citizen gets in car and drives up a nearby hill. Some lucky souls will see 10-30 cm and a few unlucky ones not much just traces. Coastal Kerry may never get cold enough and southeast corner at sea level not too favoured either.

Lol, my favourite poster on boards.ie

Latest ECM looks really good for me sunday and monday, great potential there.

pistolpetes11

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think most reading or lurking here realize this, but today was never going to be much of a snow day south of Ulster, conditions are rapidly improving through Saturday, my updated forecast thoughts in the ramping thread and as a posted forecast update. Basically 70% chance snow for most areas through Monday, the average citizen will see 2-4 cm if that helps, more if said average citizen gets in car and drives up a nearby hill. Some lucky souls will see 10-30 cm and a few unlucky ones not much just traces. Coastal Kerry may never get cold enough and southeast corner at sea level not too favoured either.

And here is that post from the ramping thread

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Snow chances increase steadily for regions between current snow areas in north and a Wicklow-Clare line through Saturday as colder temperatures develop. Difficult to say who gets good accumulations other than east slopes of any higher terrain in that zone, nothing too organized about the pattern but has the look of a patchwork quilt of 1-5 cm amounts with some areas trace amounts. Mixing issues should gradually fade out except for onshore near sea level and there, rate of fall will determine type, the harder it comes down the more likely snow or at least heavy hail.

The most important detail is that 850 mb temps are going to fall steadily towards about -7 C in the zone I have described. This is colder than currently in snow areas of Ulster, so that should be a very good sign for phase change.

South of the zone outlined snow chances are restricted to higher ground mostly above 300m until we see further advance of the upper level cold through Sunday. Then it becomes a question of where oncoming Atlantic moisture hits receptive upper level parameters and that would seem to be mid-Kerry. Places like Inch, Dingle and Valentia will likely not turn over to snow, but Listowel to Cork should do so at least for part of Monday.

Posting here rather than snow thread because I'm here now and have to run.

Graupel

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think most reading or lurking here realize this, but today was never going to be much of a snow day south of Ulster, conditions are rapidly improving through Saturday, my updated forecast thoughts in the ramping thread and as a posted forecast update. Basically 70% chance snow for most areas through Monday, the average citizen will see 2-4 cm if that helps, more if said average citizen gets in car and drives up a nearby hill. Some lucky souls will see 10-30 cm and a few unlucky ones not much just traces. Coastal Kerry may never get cold enough and southeast corner at sea level not too favoured either.

Booooo

maquiladora

ECM not going down the GFS route at 120.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

ECM not going down the GFS route at 120.

Noticed that, where will 144 take us !

jo06555

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think most reading or lurking here realize this, but today was never going to be much of a snow day south of Ulster, conditions are rapidly improving through Saturday, my updated forecast thoughts in the ramping thread and as a posted forecast update. Basically 70% chance snow for most areas through Monday, the average citizen will see 2-4 cm if that helps, more if said average citizen gets in car and drives up a nearby hill. Some lucky souls will see 10-30 cm and a few unlucky ones not much just traces. Coastal Kerry may never get cold enough and southeast corner at sea level not too favoured either.

Southeast corner how unlucky are we ... well im on border from waterford to tip/killkenny so am I in te group to miss out????

cherryghost

maquiladora wrote: »

ECM not going down the GFS route at 120.

I count that as a 3v1 against the GFS this afternoon. You can't really count on any of them after 96hrs though.

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think most reading or lurking here realize this, but today was never going to be much of a snow day south of Ulster, conditions are rapidly improving through Saturday, my updated forecast thoughts in the ramping thread and as a posted forecast update. Basically 70% chance snow for most areas through Monday, the average citizen will see 2-4 cm if that helps, more if said average citizen gets in car and drives up a nearby hill. Some lucky souls will see 10-30 cm and a few unlucky ones not much just traces. Coastal Kerry may never get cold enough and southeast corner at sea level not too favoured either.

I can feel the tears welling up...

Tom Cruises Left Nut

cherryghost wrote: »

I count that as a 3v1 against the GFS this afternoon. You can't really count on any of them after 96hrs though.

But up to 96 UKMO and ECM are savage !

pistolpetes11

t|nt|n wrote: »

Noticed that, where will 144 take us !

1035 on the east coast of Green land at 120

1020 over most over it

will it keep building

Elmer Blooker

2.9c now, the highest so far today, and there I was expecting to do a bit of lamp post watching after dark
Time to go and have a look at the ECM, pistolpetes mentioned something about heights building in Greenland - that might cheer me up.

Musicman2000

jo06555 wrote: »

Southeast corner how unlucky are we ... well im on border from waterford to tip/killkenny so am I in te group to miss out????

You should be fine, If you were around the coast might be a different story.