Cold Spell Discussion (Ireland): Cold/Frosty/Icy with Snow for some

Deep Easterly

10 day forecast for my patch based on raw data from ECMWF. Drab, monotonous, lacklustre and stupendously uninspiring with a ten day average temp similar to that that you would record in a typical household fridge.





Tried my damndest to see the positives in this, but really is a waste of effort.

jo06555

so whats the latest for southern parts of irl are we still on for sunday hope we wont be stood up now !!!!! :cool:

Mr Cumulonimbus

Precipitation a little further north and east at +66?

Weathering

Deep Easterly wrote: »

10 day forecast for my patch based on raw data from ECMWF. Drab, monotonous, lacklustre and stupendously uninspiring with a ten day average temp similar to that that you would record in a typical household fridge.





Tried my damndest to see the positives in this, but really is a waste of effort.

I wouldn't want my milk coming out of ur fridge next Friday

ninebeanrows

We are entering into the warm sector now.

Dewpoints are expected to become below 0c along the east coast from 6am, so have a good nights sleep

pauldry

warning im about to gerry bash.

Siobhan , at least it wasnt Gerry.

hes like an accountant doing the weather.

Any ways enough bashing but amazed at how people on boards predicted today weeks ago, even with any models and all. Sure there was no snow here but flakes of snow fell mixed with sleet which is more than we got in the past 2 months and some on boards predicted it nearly a month ago. I always lean on the side of mild and even still i reckon the mild air will ruin it for Sligo despite what Siobhain was saying. It was 2c tonight and lashing rain and then 1c and lashing rain so is it too cold to snow? I think we need a Northerly or Noreaster to see snow on low ground here and even a Northerly will get blocked by Ben Bulben. Even in 2010 and it was minus 9c in Sligo town the day before was raining and it was -2c. It froze immediately mind causing all manner of exitement on the roads outside. Maybe tonight will do the same but snow itself is a puzzle to predict in some areas of Ireland especially along the coast due to sea temp and urban temperature as compared to rural.

Id say Im just going to have to sit and wait. You guys might get your snow but Sligo is near on unforecastable. We could have mist one minute and sleet another and then you go to the loo and the driveway is white and you go yippee and then you get the gloves and coat to go out and try and make a muck(snow)man only to find that its raining again so screw that you go back inside and look out and see 2 inches on the ground and go outside and slip and fall on your arsenal.

Its all in the Dew Point isnt it. Why wont met eireann show Temperature followed by DP on their reports for each station. Although having said that the dew point here was -1.4c in 2010 at one stage and it you guess it.

Spiel over ..back to the weekend forecast you guys.

Rougies

JazzyJ wrote: »

Way lower than that. Lamb Doyles and Blue Light are around 250m and they've snow. I'd say more like 225m

I drove up today at about 2 o clock and the snowline was at 320m. I went up Kilakee road though, so maybe the snowline was lower earlier around Lamb Doyles area because it's more east facing there as opposed to Kilakee. I dunno. But anyway, temps have increased significantly in the past couple of hours so the snowline has increased by about 150m at least.

BEASTERLY

Deep Easterly wrote: »

10 day forecast for my patch based on raw data from ECMWF. Drab, monotonous, lacklustre and stupendously uninspiring with a ten day average temp similar to that that you would record in a typical household fridge.





Tried my damndest to see the positives in this, but really is a waste of effort.

Nobody is forcing you to live so far away from the wickla hills! :P

Minister

South Kilkenny - Temp in car says 1 degree C. a bit of frost on roof of car. Feels to be less cold than an hour ago.

No snow down here I'd wager.

snowstorm445

Deep Easterly wrote: »

10 day forecast for my patch based on raw data from ECMWF. Drab, monotonous, lacklustre and stupendously uninspiring with a ten day average temp similar to that that you would record in a typical household fridge.





Tried my damndest to see the positives in this, but really is a waste of effort.

1C is a cold max temp in all fairness.

Rougies

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Tried my damndest to see the positives in this, but really is a waste of effort.

I'll tell you one positive. You're not being driven fecking demented being in a marginal sleety ****e area with over a foot of snow 10 minutes drive away.

Mr Cumulonimbus

Weathercheck wrote: »

We are entering into the warm sector now.

Dewpoints are expected to become below 0c along the east coast from 6am, so have a good nights sleep

Weathercheck whats your thinking on east coast streamer activity tomorrow? Would the wind direction be ok?

Deep Easterly

snowstorm445 wrote: »

1C is a cold max temp in all fairness.

True, but nothing exceptional, sure had similar low maxes in late Nov and December last.

Rougies

pauldry wrote: »

Its all in the Dew Point isnt it. Why wont met eireann show Temperature followed by DP on their reports for each station. Although having said that the dew point here was -1.4c in 2010 at one stage and it you guess it.

Spiel over ..back to the weekend forecast you guys.

They show humidity. You can calculate DP with temp and RH.
http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/Humidity.html

JanuarySnowstor

GFS 12z run had -14 for Kerry on Tues night
What will the 18z produce??

The Nutty M

Weathering wrote: »

Donegal got nothing,was expecting at least a covering. doesn't look good for tonight either,radar showing it fragmenting over central Ulster. Did something change?

Was talking to the girlfriend there 10 mins ago and she's up beside Mulroy Bay at 37mts altitude.They have had and are still having constant sticking snow since 2pm today,it was mixed sleet before that.

Here in east Mayo we had no snow today but lots and lots of heavy rain.Hopefully tomorrow will be beautiful :D

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

GFS 12z run had -14 for Kerry on Tues night
What will the 18z produce??

Not -14.

snowstorm445

maquiladora wrote: »

Not -14.

Still very cold around Connacht, showing a big area of sub -4C.

maquiladora

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Still very cold around Connacht, showing a big area of sub -4C.

Yep, cold for sure. But 10 degrees warmer than -14.

John.Icy

Was wondering what the fuss was about ECM FI...I guess few looked at anything other than synoptics, because it would be all rain from +192 up to +240...turning after that maybe but way too far to even matter.

ECM ensembles mean @168 isn't great, looks like Atlantic is winning on ensembles at that stage, obviously energy might undercut but ho-hum, I ain't feeling continued cold yet.

Hopefully we all see some snow over the weekend, for our sanity's sake

snowstorm445

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep, cold for sure. But 10 degrees warmer than -14.

I wasn't thinking it would be very likely anyway. Besides, it's four days out, small details like these change with every run.

I've only just realised how weak those highs over Scandinavia are, down at 1020mb. That simply won't withstand the Atlantic throwing itself at it.

maquiladora

18Z GFS might be trying a slider here. Jet profile is better.

maquiladora

snowstorm445 wrote: »

I wasn't thinking it would be very likely anyway. Besides, it's four days out, small details like these change with every run.

I've only just realised how weak those highs over Scandinavia are, down at 1020mb. That simply won't withstand the Atlantic throwing itself at it.

Yep, the -14 all depended on a big dumpings of snow creating snowfields. Only takes one small change in track of a low or 2 degree temperature shift and its gone on the next run.

Weathering

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS might be trying a slider here. Jet profile is better.

The metoffice has an amber warning out until 9am tomorrow morning for the WHOLE of NI. I can't really understand that. Will it pick up again later? I hope Donegal gets a covering,some of my mates have a covering but F.A in reality

BLIZZARD7

John.Icy wrote: »

Was wondering what the fuss was about ECM FI...I guess few looked at anything other than synoptics, because it would be all rain from +192 up to +240...turning after that maybe but way too far to even matter.

ECM ensembles mean @168 isn't great, looks like Atlantic is winning on ensembles at that stage, obviously energy might undercut but ho-hum, I ain't feeling continued cold yet.




Dan

Hopefully we all see some snow over the weekend, for our sanity's sake

Mmm well met eireann seem confident enough of the cold continuing...

little bess

It has been a great couple of weeks model watching, but my brain is fried now, so going to take Weatherchecks advice and try ,TRY to ignore this thread til the morning. Here's to -0 dp's and lots of precip tmrw

kingshankly

Any sign of the winds dying down

Mr Cumulonimbus

Wind direction, uppers, DPs' (marginal?) and snow accumulation for tomorrow afternoon. East coast could do ok.

Mech1

We drove up to the viewing point just after Hell fire club this evening. Kids had a great time.:D

hawkwing

GFS @ 162 very different,no sw'erly but could go anyway,changing too much to matter at that range it seems