##RAMPING THREAD##

BEASTERLY

The GFS is picking up a signal for a Greenland block in extreme FI, has been pretty consistent with it the last few days.

Pangea

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I rate this possibility at about 65% possible for the period 4 Feb to 10 Mar with the coldest "signal" from research in the middle third of February.

A dagger to the heart when you compare it to last weeks post

M.T. Cranium wrote:

I would rate the chances of significant snow and cold before mid-February at about 80 to 90 per cent

icesnowfrost

Horrible weather in Drogheda rain rain rain.. Temp is 4 degrees

JanuarySnowstor

Heavy rain in Cork all morning
Typical, slightly milder aswell
Could be some icy roads tonight if all this lot freezes

Harps

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The GFS is picking up a signal for a Greenland block in extreme FI, has been pretty consistent with it the last few days.

Noticed that as well, not so much a Greenland block but a strong signal in the ensemble runs for past couple of days for the Azores High to extend northward from around the 5th of February. That could of course lead to mild weather depending on how its oriented but interesting to see if anything comes of it

Elmer Blooker

massive upgrade in the 12z at +6.

yes, things are that bad!

partay pooper

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

massive upgrade in the 12z at +6.

yes, things are that bad!

in layman terms ......what has been upgraded?

Blizzard 2010

Good news for Coldies is that MTs forecast for february maybe bang on. WSI have NOW WARNED that February will be much colder than average in Nordic Regions and the U.K. FRIENDS ROMANS AND COUNTRYMEN WE MAY HAVE A VERY STRONG SCANDI HIGH DOMINATING DURING THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.:eek: I love this ramping thread:D

Hal1

Ah no.

aboyro

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

"peter out"

i like what you did there:D

compsys

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Good news for Coldies is that MTs forecast for february maybe bang on. WSI have NOW WARNED that February will be much colder than average in Nordic Regions and the U.K. FRIENDS ROMANS AND COUNTRYMEN WE MAY HAVE A VERY STRONG SCANDI HIGH DOMINATING DURING THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.:eek: I love this ramping thread:D

But did they mention a cold spell for Ireland?

As we've found out to our detriment once again over the past two weeks, Ireland and the UK can sometimes be miles apart weather wise and a cold spell for the UK (in particular England) does not guarantee a cold spell for Ireland.

Dead_Rabbits

compsys wrote: »

But did they mention a cold spell for Ireland?

As we've found out to our detriment once again over the past two weeks, Ireland and the UK can sometimes be miles apart weather wise and a cold spell for the UK (in particular England) does not guarantee a cold spell for Ireland.

If we get a Greenland block and a cold North Easternly from it than the chances of a more entrenched cold over Ireland is greatly increased.

On the ECM model this evening the first tentative signs are there for the elusive Greenland block. All will be looking out for this over the coming days.

whitebriar

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Good news for Coldies is that MTs forecast for february maybe bang on. WSI have NOW WARNED that February will be much colder than average in Nordic Regions and the U.K. FRIENDS ROMANS AND COUNTRYMEN WE MAY HAVE A VERY STRONG SCANDI HIGH DOMINATING DURING THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.:eek: I love this ramping thread:D

Just to repeat what I said in the cold thread,a scandi high brings easterly winds from mainland Europe not Scandinavia.

They can topple easily so what you really need kids Atlantic blocking positioned such that it steers winds in from the northeast.
Low pressure in Scandinavia would be better then actually for snow with a high behind staying way up north of scoland.

If I could I would.

Blizzard 2010

compsys wrote: »

But did they mention a cold spell for Ireland?

As we've found out to our detriment once again over the past two weeks, Ireland and the UK can sometimes be miles apart weather wise and a cold spell for the UK (in particular England) does not guarantee a cold spell for Ireland.

True but hopefully it will, MT maybe onto something:)

Blizzard 2010

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Dead_Rabbits

GET



THERE

Mr Bumble

"and I am seeing tentative signs that the expected much colder period could develop rather rapidly even as early as these first three days of February." MT today.....

Pangea

Mr Bumble wrote: »

"and I am seeing tentative signs that the expected much colder period could develop rather rapidly even as early as these first three days of February." MT today.....

I got excited too before I googled what tentative meant..

dacogawa

Since this is the ramping thread, FI 120 hours out on the ECM

Mr Bumble

i'll take tentative and i'm still excited

derekon

Mr Bumble wrote: »

i'll take tentative and i'm still excited

I understand that the word "tentative" means not certain or not positive however I think what MT means by that word in the context of his forecast is that he is seeing emerging hints of the expected cold.

That is my take on it but then I tend to be a wee bit positive a lot of the time

D

up for anything

Whether he means rain or snow, I don't know.

jprboy

up for anything wrote: »

Whether he means rain or snow, I don't know.

Oi!! This is the Ramping thread.
ROMPING thread is that way -> -> ->

up for anything

So sorry, took a wrong click.

M.T. Cranium

I remain optimistic about the potential for cold and therefore snow in February (realizing that cold does not guarantee snow and UK cold does not guarantee Ireland to be cold, etc etc) ... would not expect models to catch all of potential developments for a day or two yet, as the heart of this cold spell from my research shows up around 10th to 15th which is a long time in weather model terms. The trend on the GFS has been generally promising but mostly a series of vague suggestions of a good feed of deep cold from a north through northeast origin. Anyway, I think the odds are good on this, but nothing at this stage of research development can be taken as a guarantee (naturally the mild parts of the forecast came to pass, there must be a law about that too).

Mr Bumble

Tentatively, I'd call it Sod's Law:rolleyes:

Deank

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I remain optimistic about the potential for cold and therefore snow in February (realizing that cold does not guarantee snow and UK cold does not guarantee Ireland to be cold, etc etc) ... would not expect models to catch all of potential developments for a day or two yet, as the heart of this cold spell from my research shows up around 10th to 15th which is a long time in weather model terms. The trend on the GFS has been generally promising but mostly a series of vague suggestions of a good feed of deep cold from a north through northeast origin. Anyway, I think the odds are good on this, but nothing at this stage of research development can be taken as a guarantee (naturally the mild parts of the forecast came to pass, there must be a law about that too).

Here we go again

derekon

Deank wrote: »

Here we go again

In fairness to MT, I don't think he could be termed a ramper. If the truth be known, he is probably one of a handful of people on the weather boards that actually knows what he is talking about

So I would heed his predictions as they have proved to be very accurate in the past

D

Deank

derekon wrote: »

In fairness to MT, I don't think he could be termed a ramper. If the truth be known, he is probably one of a handful of people on the weather boards that actually knows what he is talking about

So I would heed his predictions as they have proved to be very accurate in the past

D

Oh I absolutely agree with you, but when MT mentions the "S" word this place erupts, this is the ramping thread afterall, a little ramping never hurt anyone.
Now let the model watching and general madness begin.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Classic, our Dublin man makes an appearance too !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKy2lLNQYrI