##RAMPING THREAD##

dubal

Some serious ramping in MT's daily forecast today

DOCARCH

dubal wrote: »

Some serious ramping in MT's daily forecast today

Yes....indeed!

Smkopite

DOCARCH wrote: »

Yes....indeed!

Yes looking odds on now for very cold weather

finlma

Smkopite wrote: »

Yes looking odds on now for very cold weather

Less so according to MT Cranium
"With somewhat less confidence, we are also looking further ahead to possible severe cold by the following weekend if some models are correct"

Dead_Rabbits

finlma wrote: »

Less so according to MT Cranium
"With somewhat less confidence, we are also looking further ahead to possible severe cold by the following weekend if some models are correct"

There is ALWAYS "less confidence" the further ahead you look with regards to the models or in fact anything in life :rolleyes:

icesnowfrost

Anyone have a link to MT forecast today

Dead_Rabbits

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Anyone have a link to MT forecast today

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_After_Tomorrow

Dead_Rabbits

@ icesnowfrost

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055579971&page=187

icesnowfrost

Dead_Rabbits wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_After_Tomorrow

Lol that says it all to me ha no charts or models needed

Deank

The birds here are going nuts, they wouldn't be that active or vocal on a summers morning, they know somethings a coming.

Dead_Rabbits

Deank wrote: »

The birds here are going nuts, they wouldn't be that active or vocal on a summers morning, they know somethings a coming.

Deank

Dead_Rabbits wrote: »

Brilliant

M.T. Cranium

In the short term, what's unusual about the set-up is that snow-friendly uppers are coming at high speed across the full extent of the North Atlantic at least from the southern tip of Greenland. This does raise the concern of ocean modification but when we see a similar pattern over the North Pacific it usually changes readily to snow after hitting the coast even if some outer headlands are showing 3/1 or even perhaps 4/2 obs, (temp/dew point). North Pacific tends to be 2-3 C colder than North Atlantic but the ocean is running a bit colder than normal in your sector.

Also the gradient wind at times looks very strong and could be enhanced by convective activity.

Polar low most likely in more of a northerly set-up so possibly mid-week, usually there would be some sign of vorticity up around Jan Mayen as a clue. This is more of a cold westerly which is a very rare synoptic pattern. The thundery potential could be considerable.

Snow could fall almost anywhere since the main mechanism for it will be convection rather than sea effect (the whole region will be in sea effect to some extent).

But just for general interest, I would be expecting reports like this over the three days Mon to Wed ...

Connacht, non-lying snow near sea level changing to hail or rain at times, but inland some reports of 5-10 cm especially on west-facing hills (not that high up either, maybe 100-150m).

Ulster, widespread reportss of 3-7 cm although somewhat hit and miss, isolated reports of 10-15 cm.

Munster, reports of snow mixing in with hail showers, some brief instances of lying snow except on higher terrain (above 250m) some heavy falls likely.

Leinster, until Wed will be dependent on long-fetch convective showers and beefed up trough development but likely to have scattered reports of 1-3 cm cover and brief bursts of heavy snow. By Wed, however, east Ulster and Leinster may be in a better position to benefit from wind shift to northerly, and Wicklow may do very well at times.

Overall, by end of the windy period and before any colder high pressure shows up, would say a good chance that two-thirds of the country could see at least a brief interval of lying snow. There is also some chance of a frontal wave situation giving snow in the inland southwest around Friday.

But that's not meant to be a ramp.

lapua20grain

met eireann giving a weather warning on their website
http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

Redsunset

*** On-thread Warning***
Posts Deleted "STAY ON TOPIC PLEASE"

whiteandlight

Anyone more experienced than me know when the radar watching should start

Rebelbrowser

Musicmental85 wrote: »

Anyone more experienced than me know when the radar watching should start

Monday night onwards esp in NW. I would recommend http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= to people. Pink means snow. The time is in hours on top and it goes out to about 48 hours. Scroll through the hours to see the forecasted evolution...

Irish Steve

Redsunset wrote: »

*** On-thread Warning***
Posts Deleted "STAY ON TOPIC PLEASE"

How are people getting off topic with forecasts like the ones we are seeing, if this ramp gets any steeper, we'll be talking about it becoming a rack and pinion mountain climbing raliway rather than a ramp.

That said, what's though provoking is that even MT is "surprised" by the manner in which this is coming in, and we're heading towards a serious session of nowcasting, as accurate predictions of what's coming down on us are becoming harder and harder to make.

For me, looking at the forecasts and looking back over previous bad weather sessions, the worry about this one is that its going to happen a lot faster and with more intensity than "the system" is geared up for, which could leave us with a lot of problems at an infrastructure level.

Mid 70's in Somerset, a front came up over the south west, warm air going up and over cold air, it got to Salisbury, and stalled, then came back again the next night, the end result was that my car was invisible as such, I knew where it was by the size of the pile of snow on the roof, but it couldn't be seen as such, and a door in a corner of the house that attracted the drifting snow when opened led nowhere, the snow was above the head of the door, so we had a good impression of the door on the snow outside. Nothing got down our road for 4 days. The one story I can give credibility to was the story of an Army snow plough/digger that met up with a mini on a partially open road. The digger driver told the mini driver to back up, and got an earful of abuse for his troubles. Dug out a bucket of snow, dropped it behind the mini, then dropped another in front of it, dug round it, and continued on his way. The other story I heard that's true, I saw the damage, a friend was using a tracked dozer to clear some roads, and was heading for home, and followed the phone lines to get there. At one point, unbeknown to him at that time, the phone lines didnt follow the road, they took a short cut over a field as the road was in a deep cutting. A few weeks later, we could all see the result, the tracks of the machine had damaged the tops of the hedgerow at the top of the cutting, and when it was measured, the snow depth at that point was over 30Ft, due to the drifting that had happened and the shape of the road and the cutting it was in. This was at relatively low levels in Somerset, south of this part of the world, and not known for bad winter weather under "normal" circumstances.

So, while due caution about the exact nature of the coming week is appropriate, I would certainly suggest to any motorist that lives on high ground that they make sure they have basic survival essentials in the car for the next week or so, even if that's only a charged working mobile phone, good cold weather gloves etc, and a blanket or similar, just in case. Don't go spending silly sums on non essential items, but equally, get just the basics and carry them as a precaution.

eskimocat

Well I am much happier now... RTE weather forecast had more emphasis on the fact that there is snow on the way.. there was less about the 'possibility' and more about there 'will be'.

At relatively low elevation I think i might just get a bit of a dusting... meanwhile up the road, there will be more, so think I will just have to go snow chasing.

Its going to be an interesting time radar watching

fr wishy washy

eskimocat wrote: »

Well I am much happier now... RTE weather forecast had more emphasis on the fact that there is snow on the way.. there was less about the 'possibility' and more about there 'will be'.

At relatively low elevation I think i might just get a bit of a dusting... meanwhile up the road, there will be more, so think I will just have to go snow chasing.

Its going to be an interesting time radar watching

I agree

Red Pepper

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Monday night onwards esp in NW. I would recommend http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= to people. Pink means snow. The time is in hours on top and it goes out to about 48 hours. Scroll through the hours to see the forecasted evolution...

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=weas&HH=42&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Why is there a hole east of Lough Corrib and Tuam for snowfall on the model above? Does the lake block snow showers?

Harry Deerpark

Red Pepper wrote: »

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=weas&HH=42&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Why is there a hole east of Lough Corrib and Tuam for snowfall on the model above? Does the lake block snow showers?

Someone must have activated to snow-shield for that area.

Geomy

Irish Steve wrote: »

How are people getting off topic with forecasts like the ones we are seeing, if this ramp gets any steeper, we'll be talking about it becoming a rack and pinion mountain climbing raliway rather than a ramp.

That said, what's though provoking is that even MT is "surprised" by the manner in which this is coming in, and we're heading towards a serious session of nowcasting, as accurate predictions of what's coming down on us are becoming harder and harder to make.

For me, looking at the forecasts and looking back over previous bad weather sessions, the worry about this one is that its going to happen a lot faster and with more intensity than "the system" is geared up for, which could leave us with a lot of problems at an infrastructure level.

Mid 70's in Somerset, a front came up over the south west, warm air going up and over cold air, it got to Salisbury, and stalled, then came back again the next night, the end result was that my car was invisible as such, I knew where it was by the size of the pile of snow on the roof, but it couldn't be seen as such, and a door in a corner of the house that attracted the drifting snow when opened led nowhere, the snow was above the head of the door, so we had a good impression of the door on the snow outside. Nothing got down our road for 4 days. The one story I can give credibility to was the story of an Army snow plough/digger that met up with a mini on a partially open road. The digger driver told the mini driver to back up, and got an earful of abuse for his troubles. Dug out a bucket of snow, dropped it behind the mini, then dropped another in front of it, dug round it, and continued on his way. The other story I heard that's true, I saw the damage, a friend was using a tracked dozer to clear some roads, and was heading for home, and followed the phone lines to get there. At one point, unbeknown to him at that time, the phone lines didnt follow the road, they took a short cut over a field as the road was in a deep cutting. A few weeks later, we could all see the result, the tracks of the machine had damaged the tops of the hedgerow at the top of the cutting, and when it was measured, the snow depth at that point was over 30Ft, due to the drifting that had happened and the shape of the road and the cutting it was in. This was at relatively low levels in Somerset, south of this part of the world, and not known for bad winter weather under "normal" circumstances.

So, while due caution about the exact nature of the coming week is appropriate, I would certainly suggest to any motorist that lives on high ground that they make sure they have basic survival essentials in the car for the next week or so, even if that's only a charged working mobile phone, good cold weather gloves etc, and a blanket or similar, just in case. Don't go spending silly sums on non essential items, but equally, get just the basics and carry them as a precaution.

I live in Clare and have an image in my head of a local guy "who means well"in a tracked dozer clearing snow,following phone lines etc
And a short cut created from Sixmilebridge to Kilkishen lol
That's an epic story,like something from the farside and I believe it

Geomy

Shannon town has a snow shield too,when I was going to school there,if it was snowing anywhere else Shannon would be without any snow,even though across the estuary Co Limerick would be white...

Irish Steve

Geomy wrote: »

Shannon town has a snow shield too,when I was going to school there,if it was snowing anywhere else Shannon would be without any snow,even though across the estuary Co Limerick would be white...

Yup, if there's anything north of west in the wind, the prevailing weather has to climb over Clare, and then it drops back down again as it comes over to Shannon, so there's no "spare" moisture in the cloud to be dumped on Shannon.

This is the ramping thread, so here goes, Sky appear to have upped the ante some with their latest forecasts, potential for snow quite a long way south by late on Monday

http://weather-news.sky.com/weather/ is suggesting that there will be snow offshore as far south as your part of the world.

Most of the forecasts seem to be coming in to line with a cold week, the only unknown right now is the total snowfall. That is guaranteed to upset the snow bunnies here, and there's plenty of them lurking even at this time of the morning, I am thinking that there is going to be a lot of lamp post checking and polishing tomorrow, but hey, that's the way these things work out.

fr wishy washy

There doesn't seem to be too much hype on Tv3 about the weather.

icesnowfrost

Look at the difference between these 2 apps

Weathering

In my opinion a massive backtrack from mt this morning regarding the chances of a sustained cold spell. I think most will at least agree it didn't sound as promising as his fc of the previous few days.
I know he never said it was a certainty and still gives hope but when u hear the east coast might...doesn't bode well for a national cold spell
I for one am going to enjoy this evenings weather

munsterlegend

Weathering wrote: »

In my opinion a massive backtrack from mt this morning regarding the chances of a sustained cold spell. I think most will at least agree it didn't sound as promising as his fc of the previous few days.
I know he never said it was a certainty and still gives hope but when u hear the east coast might...doesn't bode well for a national cold spell
I for one am going to enjoy this evenings weather

Yeah I was surprised at that given his previous forecasts. I thought the models this morning were more in favour of a potential cold outbreak. Still all to play for but we might again be that bit too far west.

dopolahpec

munsterlegend wrote: »

Yeah I was surprised at that given his previous forecasts. I thought the models this morning were more in favour of a potential cold outbreak. Still all to play for but we might again be that bit too far west.

Yeah, it's a very reasonable forecast, and I think it would be highly unrealistic to call a severe cold spell at the moment. Things look flabby and sluggish in the models. Even the projected easterly in the ECM would be very slack with little driving force for streamers or any sort of organised snowfall.