##RAMPING THREAD##

icesnowfrost

These are the latest tweets on the uk snow map( areas were its snowing)

irish1967

If you were here in Donegal Town right now seeing what I'm seeing it would be so easy to RAMP ! Horizontal sleet/Hail accompanied by extreme gusts.. waves of it ! Wind is unreal in the showers !

Speak Now

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Likely to get me banned, but here goes. I'm disappointed in MT, not for getting a forecast wrong(could be right yet!), but for the OTT ramping, followed by a gradual step by step climb down. We've gone from 90% confidence in a severe cold spell, back to 60, and reading between the lines of this morning forecast, it's now back to 30%. Nothing could have 90% probability a month out in our atmosphere.

I was also dissapointed that we were constantly told that the cold is coming from the east/northeast, with no real explanation of what synoptics will do this, and why he thinks these synoptics will set up. I'm sorry but 'research suggests' is just to vague for me. How many times have we seen Vogan and Madden lambasted on here for making long range forecasts without putting their reasoning up front. I know MT has been much more successful than those guys, but that's not my point.

This post might seem premature, but I don't have an issue with the accuracy, or inaccuracy which unfortunately may be the case.

Go to net weather Beasterly, he has plenty of details about his methods there. I would never knock someone for getting a forecast wrong because you know what? A forecast is just that! Anyone who sticks their neck on the line with a long range forecast doesn’t deserve any criticism (unless they charge for it of course).

MT's short range forecasting is taken from the models, I guess sometimes he can over call our snow chances from afar because as we know too well locally that snow fall will so often find a way of being on the wrong side of marginal here in Ireland.

But hey listen it’s just the weather, the bickering that goes on here sometimes between posters is hilarious. We all know the weather will do what it wants regardless!

Anyway as this is the ramping thread I’ll just point out that M.T's forecast for mid Feb hasn't been shown to be wrong yet. The ECM's output still holds plenty of interest.

tomcosgrave

Sorry Beasterly, but as far as I can see MT is on the ball.

seamus

GFS charts are showing a sustained cold spell incoming for all of next week, with potential upgrade to severe cold.

The Irish winter isn't over till the end of March, so anything can happen!

dopolahpec

seamus wrote: »

GFS charts are showing a sustained cold spell incoming for all of next week, with potential upgrade to severe cold.

The Irish winter isn't over till the end of March, so anything can happen!

Are they? Could you link me to these charts?

dopolahpec

Showers on the radar are really coalescing into more organised bands now. Making their way right across Ireland. I'm assuming these are mostly rain or a rain/hail mix. But as they turn to snow overnight I'm guessing the overall area affected by snow will be a lot larger than the previous cold snap two weeks ago. Though the depth of snow following from these very fast moving bands will be nothing like what was seen on higher ground in Wicklow and Northern Ireland/Cavan/Monaghan during the more sustained stuff two weeks ago.

BEASTERLY

tomcosgrave wrote: »

Sorry Beasterly, but as far as I can see MT is on the ball.

As I repeatedly said, accuracy was not my point, at all.

seamus

dopolahpec wrote: »

Are they? Could you link me to these charts?

Not forgetting that this is the ramping thread, so I can be tenuous as I like

tomcosgrave

BEASTERLY wrote: »

As I repeatedly said, accuracy was not my point, at all.

I get that, I just don't think he's been ramping things.

tucker1971

seamus wrote: »

GFS charts are showing a sustained cold spell incoming for all of next week, with potential upgrade to severe cold.

The Irish winter isn't over till the end of March, so anything can happen!

Ye and next week they will be showing it for the week after, and so forth until its eventually June.

These models have my head wrecked all winter. Giving false hope and showing severe cold spells a week in advance that never materialise. One thing I have learned from this winter is that forecasting is a 3 day timeframe, anything beyond that is garbage.

SandraD

Lads it's time to face some facts. None of the models have handled this winters synoptics particularily well... and where most (GFS, GEM and ECMWF) have repeatedly attempted to bring cold in from the east further out in FI, the altlantic train comes barreling back in during reliable timeframes leaving Ireland on the fringes of any cold (as we witnessed in the last "cold snap" which really only effected the UK incl parts of NI). From what I'm reading from the current model outputs we can expect a pretty windy day today and tomorrow - with winds weakening tomorrow evening into Wed. With models ranging from -4 to -8 850hPa's any flirting with snow will be brief and primarily confined to Northern and Western counties and higher elevations! I don't doubt that after a pretty mild week this week will be colder in comparison and night frosts and colder days will make it feel more wintery. But for those asking will in snow IMBY, chances are unless you're back yard is high up in the North or West, chances are you'll only see hail and at times a sleetly mix (if not just rain). And those who do see snow - it will likely be brief and followed by rain by Wednesday!

Though I can't count winter over as of yet, I do feel that our chances are slipping by and frankly at this stage I'm not really bothered anymore. As long as we don't end up with a constant wet and miserable spring, summer and autumn like we did last year, I'll be happy! Cold never became as firmly entrenched in Europe as it normally does, thus Ireland was never likely to see anything amazing this year.. shame the SSW didn't have the effect we'd hoped for and hopefully it's effect on the troposphere won't mean we're in for a miserable spring with FAB winter synoptics, but not enough cold for it to count!

whitebriar

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Likely to get me banned, but here goes. I'm disappointed in MT, not for getting a forecast wrong(could be right yet!), but for the OTT ramping, followed by a gradual step by step climb down. We've gone from 90% confidence in a severe cold spell, back to 60, and reading between the lines of this morning forecast, it's now back to 30%. Nothing could have 90% probability a month out in our atmosphere.

I was also dissapointed that we were constantly told that the cold is coming from the east/northeast, with no real explanation of what synoptics will do this, and why he thinks these synoptics will set up. I'm sorry but 'research suggests' is just to vague for me. How many times have we seen Vogan and Madden lambasted on here for making long range forecasts without putting their reasoning up front. I know MT has been much more successful than those guys, but that's not my point.

This post might seem premature, but I don't have an issue with the accuracy, or inaccuracy which unfortunately may be the case.

Just to chime in here a bit.
You are reading Mt's forecasts in the wrong way.
He uses his research model to pinpoint a window in which an event can happen.
Closer to the event window,which he accepts is never certain,he only uses the models,and intuition,the same as the rest of us.
So the change up and down in confidence is no surprise.
For all he knows or you and I know,there could be a week of severe cold before march 10th,the end of his window,just not next week,who knows?

Larbre34

tucker1971 wrote: »

Ye and next week they will be showing it for the week after, and so forth until its eventually June.

These models have my head wrecked all winter. Giving false hope and showing severe cold spells a week in advance that never materialise. One thing I have learned from this winter is that forecasting is a 3 day timeframe, anything beyond that is garbage.

You have to remember that in years gone by when all mere mortals like us had access to were the met office forecasts on the broadcast media, we never had a clue how close we might have come to extreme events on long range models, which were diligently factored out by the meteorologists.

If we were all sitting around a table having these discussions with with a met man making statements like you see here about potential and disappointment, he would be shaking his head and saying 'looks lads, these events though often flagged in long range, rarely if ever come off for Ireland, and it has always been thus'. That doesnt make the FI charts garbage, it just means they are what they are, the white noise of potential outcomes.

Forecasters have always known this as the technology evolved and the same met man would say we are wasting our time looking at anything beyond +120 and should even be very wary of anything beyond +72

If Ireland were truly prone to severe winter events, and it may seem obvious to say, we would simply see them more often. The most important word in Irelands prevailing climate is 'maritime'. Sea effect is a huge damper on such a small landmass, the currents and adjoining ocean temps we experience modifies all the extremes that heads for us and narrows it into a very temperate range - the very reason we dont get hurricanes, heatwaves, whiteouts, drouts, monsoons, tundra or severe convection.

All the above is why our met office so often cite 1 in 20, 50 or 100 year events for any particular extreme outcomes, where that extreme wouldnt be anything of the sort in another given location on earth. Our snows of 09/10 and 10/11 were somewhere between 1 in 20 and 1 in 50 year outcomes, so dont hold your breath waiting to see them again. This week will be cool, breezy and with average to slightly above precip - only a slight variation on what it is 95% of the time. 1947 indeed:rolleyes:

rilz

March can always spring a suprise winter wise

icesnowfrost

Something is bruing

Geomy

Heavy sleet showers in Ennis earlier,whipping up nicely again

Dead_Rabbits

Met Eireann

"STATUS ORANGE"

"Wind Warning for Munster, Leinster, Connacht, Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan
Extremely windy with some severe, possibly damaging gusts. Strong to gale force westerly winds will produce gusts of 110 to 130 km/h in Connacht and Donegal, while in Munster, Leinster, Cavan and Monaghan gusts of 90 to 110 km/h are expected.

After dark, heavy wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow will develop at first in the north of the country, but during the night they will become more widespread and produce some accumulations of snow, in particular on high ground but also at lower levels. The very strong winds and snow showers will produce some blizzard like conditions especially on higher ground, with icy patches at all levels.

The wintry showers will turn to rain showers on Tuesday afternoon as temperatures increase."

Speak Now

Those who get a good nights sleep will miss this brief cold "spell"






Lamp post watching and driveway lighting for the rest

If you really want to see snow get the coffee pot ready, could seem like a lucid dream come this time tomorrow

Dead_Rabbits

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Those who get a good nights sleep will miss this brief cold "spell"

Lamp post watching and driveway lighting for the rest

If you really want to see snow get the coffee pot ready, could seem like a lucid dream come this time tomorrow

Comes in handy when the lamppost is right outside my hot neighbors bedroom window!

BEASTERLY

Dead_Rabbits wrote: »

Comes in handy when the lamppost is right outside my hot neighbors bedroom window!

That's handy, if you get caught you can just pretend to be a perv, they won't ever suspect the far weirder truth! :P

Dead_Rabbits

BEASTERLY wrote: »

That's handy, if you get caught you can just pretend to be a perv, they won't ever suspect the far weirder truth! :P

aurora 527

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

If you really want to see snow get the coffee pot ready, could seem like a lucid dream come this time tomorrow

I have a vat of coffee made just in case, hoping against hope;)

beco

Just got an email from smyths toys telling me the "snow is coming" and go buy a sled -€6.99. See you later!!!!

Dead_Rabbits

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21328896

Very good BBC weather slot today!

sunbabe08

at least i know this place understands me and my excitement over snow :D:D

Wine Goddess

OK found a new site to flick to - along side the other 4 that are open......

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/?type=rain-snow-sleet

it's a real-time snow-radar (or snowdar as I like to call it)

Reckon most of you know it already but it was Neeeeeewwwwwssss to me!

(Just feeding the habit really)

Considering staying up for a little while later than usual - anyone have any clue as to when I might see sth white and flaky tonight? LOL

derekon

Larbre34 wrote: »

You have to remember that in years gone by when all mere mortals like us had access to were the met office forecasts on the broadcast media, we never had a clue how close we might have come to extreme events on long range models, which were diligently factored out by the meteorologists.

If we were all sitting around a table having these discussions with with a met man making statements like you see here about potential and disappointment, he would be shaking his head and saying 'looks lads, these events though often flagged in long range, rarely if ever come off for Ireland, and it has always been thus'. That doesnt make the FI charts garbage, it just means they are what they are, the white noise of potential outcomes.

Forecasters have always known this as the technology evolved and the same met man would say we are wasting our time looking at anything beyond +120 and should even be very wary of anything beyond +72

If Ireland were truly prone to severe winter events, and it may seem obvious to say, we would simply see them more often. The most important word in Irelands prevailing climate is 'maritime'. Sea effect is a huge damper on such a small landmass, the currents and adjoining ocean temps we experience modifies all the extremes that heads for us and narrows it into a very temperate range - the very reason we dont get hurricanes, heatwaves, whiteouts, drouts, monsoons, tundra or severe convection.

All the above is why our met office so often cite 1 in 20, 50 or 100 year events for any particular extreme outcomes, where that extreme wouldnt be anything of the sort in another given location on earth. Our snows of 09/10 and 10/11 were somewhere between 1 in 20 and 1 in 50 year outcomes, so dont hold your breath waiting to see them again. This week will be cool, breezy and with average to slightly above precip - only a slight variation on what it is 95% of the time. 1947 indeed:rolleyes:

Hands down the most sensible post I have read here all winter.

Well done Larbre34.

D

Rougies

Wine Goddess wrote: »

OK found a new site to flick to - along side the other 4 that are open......

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/?type=rain-snow-sleet

it's a real-time snow-radar (or snowdar as I like to call it)

Reckon most of you know it already but it was Neeeeeewwwwwssss to me!

(Just feeding the habit really)

Considering staying up for a little while later than usual - anyone have any clue as to when I might see sth white and flaky tonight? LOL

Be careful with that snowdar. It just takes a report from a weather station and throws a 100km radius around it saying that all the precip is of the same type. Good for a general idea, but you;d be better off with a Weather Stone really

Chances get better for some flaky stuff around here from about 10. Midnight should be a good time

red_bairn

Larbre34 wrote: »

You have to remember that in years gone by when all mere mortals like us had access to were the met office forecasts on the broadcast media, we never had a clue how close we might have come to extreme events on long range models, which were diligently factored out by the meteorologists.

If we were all sitting around a table having these discussions with with a met man making statements like you see here about potential and disappointment, he would be shaking his head and saying 'looks lads, these events though often flagged in long range, rarely if ever come off for Ireland, and it has always been thus'. That doesnt make the FI charts garbage, it just means they are what they are, the white noise of potential outcomes.

Forecasters have always known this as the technology evolved and the same met man would say we are wasting our time looking at anything beyond +120 and should even be very wary of anything beyond +72

If Ireland were truly prone to severe winter events, and it may seem obvious to say, we would simply see them more often. The most important word in Irelands prevailing climate is 'maritime'. Sea effect is a huge damper on such a small landmass, the currents and adjoining ocean temps we experience modifies all the extremes that heads for us and narrows it into a very temperate range - the very reason we dont get hurricanes, heatwaves, whiteouts, drouts, monsoons, tundra or severe convection.

All the above is why our met office so often cite 1 in 20, 50 or 100 year events for any particular extreme outcomes, where that extreme wouldnt be anything of the sort in another given location on earth. Our snows of 09/10 and 10/11 were somewhere between 1 in 20 and 1 in 50 year outcomes, so dont hold your breath waiting to see them again. This week will be cool, breezy and with average to slightly above precip - only a slight variation on what it is 95% of the time. 1947 indeed:rolleyes:

So you're telling me there's a chance...