##RAMPING THREAD##

Deank

Bring me some of this please followed or preceded, I'm not that fussy by a white-out.

Dead_Rabbits

Sick and twisted end of winter joke by the GFS!

Mr Bumble

Redsunset wrote: »

Remarkable closeness in ECM and UKMO AT 144 all the same.

[IMG][/img]

[IMG][/img]

check out the uppers for this time frame
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013020512/gfs-1-138.png?12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020500/ECM0-144.GIF

Rebelbrowser

Dead_Rabbits wrote: »

Sick and twisted end of winter joke by the GFS!

But aren't there -2 uppers and with 2m temps of 8c accompanying that?

Dead_Rabbits

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

But aren't there -2 uppers and with 2m temps of 8c accompanying that?

YES

Problem123456

Redsunset wrote: »

Remarkable closeness in ECM and UKMO AT 144 all the same.

[IMG][/img]

[IMG][/img]

No cold pool tofeed it

fr wishy washy

What can we expect tonight lads?

Deank

fr wishy washy wrote: »

What can we expect tonight lads?

Highly unlikely

red_bairn

fr wishy washy wrote: »

What can we expect tonight lads?

LOTS OF WIND!!!:D

It's pretty mad outside. I thought my window was open and then realised the wind was just really loud

icesnowfrost

So is it safe to say that the cold and snow is gone until next winter coz it seems to be wat everyone is kinda saying.


No funny answers plz. Just give it to me straight

Dead_Rabbits

icesnowfrost wrote: »

So is it safe to say that the cold and snow is gone until next winter coz it seems to be wat everyone is kinda saying.


No funny answers plz. Just give it to me straight

I think we will be feeding on scraps for the rest of the winter, cooler than average defiantly but no deep freeze. I would have been alot happier seeing these charts at the start of January

delw

icesnowfrost wrote: »

So is it safe to say that the cold and snow is gone until next winter coz it seems to be wat everyone is kinda saying.


No funny answers plz. Just give it to me straight

It's looking that way,M.T's latest post doesn't give much hope for major or sustained cold,with a bit of luck things might upgrade on the models but wouldn't hold my breath

whitebriar

delw wrote: »

It's looking that way,M.T's latest post doesn't give much hope for major or sustained cold,with a bit of luck things might upgrade on the models but wouldn't hold my breath

Yeah,its looking bad folks for a severe cold spell outbreak.I knew the writing was on the wall when people started discussing elsewhere retrogressing siberian/russian highs.
They don't work as far as Ireland,you may aswell look for an australian high or a south african one.Not a hope.
I'm also going to quash the hopes put in the sliding low's.
They're a meeky tease delivering an unsustainable feed of air with barely enough cold oooomphhh to turn high hills white over here,and as the low heads south without atlantic blocking south of Iceland,we'll have a typical maratime southerly or returning southerly (faux northwesterly) in jig time with perhaps England being east enough for a colder south easterly.

I'm at a loss to see anything decent in the offing in terms of severe cold in the near future(next 10 days +)and I know this is the ramping thread,sorry.

H2UMrsRobinson

whitebriar wrote: »

Yeah,its looking bad folks for a severe cold spell outbreak.I knew the writing was on the wall when people started discussing elsewhere retrogressing siberian/russian highs.
They don't work as far as Ireland,you may aswell look for an australian high or a south african one.Not a hope.
I'm also going to quash the hopes put in the sliding low's.
They're a meeky tease delivering an unsustainable feed of air with barely enough cold oooomphhh to turn high hills white over here,and as the low heads south without atlantic blocking south of Iceland,we'll have a typical maratime southerly or returning southerly (faux northwesterly) in jig time with perhaps England being east enough for a colder south easterly.

I'm at a loss to see anything decent in the offing in terms of severe cold in the near future(next 10 days +)and I know this is the ramping thread,sorry.

Get invited to many parties ?

pauldry

I dont see it being the end of the drama by any means. I think the weather is stuck in a mobile pattern, mainly from the Atlantic and sometimes the North Atlantic so there will be some short cold bursts until the end of Winter, some with hail like today and an odd one with some night snow before the end of the month.

Come March it will be 19c and then back to 10c for the Summer as usual

M.T. Cranium

The main hope at the moment is that this sort of pattern can bust in either direction and over 5-7 days it could bust fairly substantially. Any forecast you hear today is going to be quite uncertain and the main reason to back a milder solution is climatology, but part of that climate is the past record of occasional victories for the colder air masses. That's not very helpful, I know, but with the sort of model output we are seeing, I don't come away with any kind of confidence in any particular outcome. It's a case of a weak Atlantic fighting a rather feeble and distant cold source with a big expanse of blah in between. I have the feeling that cold will make a move before the season is done.

aboyro

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I have the feeling that cold will make a move before the season is done.

That My friend is the thin thread that i'm hanging onto right now, No-one and i mean no-one is going to take this winter away from me just yet:)

dopolahpec

Rather sloppy output. Neither here nor there. I despise nothing more than a 'wintry mix'. Believe me I have had enough of walking to work in cold rain and sleet this winter. The tipping point has come for me where the prospect of cold has seriously lost its charm and I am yearning for warm spring days. There's something about early january snow and sonething about late febraury snow and I know which I prefer.

Btw haven't seem snow lie once this winter. What are we on now? Deteriorating cold snap number four. Another evolution toward 'wintry mix'.

dopolahpec

Oh, and I am struggling to understand what sort of mindset it takes to enjoy hail. Hail for me is just reminds me of frustratingly failed cold snaps from my childhood, wishing for snow, getting the hail, punishment from the gods, ye can't make a snow man from hail.

Harps

dopolahpec wrote: »

Oh, and I am struggling to understand what sort of mindset it takes to enjoy hail. Hail for me is just reminds me of frustratingly failed cold snaps from my childhood, wishing for snow, getting the hail, punishment from the gods, ye can't make a snow man from hail.

Fair enough, I struggle to see what's so great about wet slushy snow that melts within 20 minutes, at least intense hail is impressive to watch. Each to their own and all that

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Its getting a bit like this in here

Macy0161

dopolahpec wrote: »

ye can't make a snow man from hail.

You can make really painful snowballs though!

MrDerp

Daily lurker here (several times a day) and, well, I'm tapping out at this point and hoping for Spring.

I want to clean up the garden (didn't do round 2 on the leaves last November) and get the BBQ out once before Easter. Gimme 2 hours of 13-14 degrees some afternoon and I'm breaking out the charcoal - can always eat it indoors.

Spindle

dopolahpec wrote: »

Oh, and I am struggling to understand what sort of mindset it takes to enjoy hail. Hail for me is just reminds me of frustratingly failed cold snaps from my childhood, wishing for snow, getting the hail, punishment from the gods, ye can't make a snow man from hail.

For what it is worth, I thought it was an interesting spell, mega thunderstorm, very cold bracing winds, some snow, hail, sleet, sunny days. Sure what more do you want.

Maybe it is time to stop looking at charts, and if snow arrives, it will be the biggest surprise ever, if not, then at least you don't have to be looking at something on the charts that shows snowfest 2013, only for it to turn out as something else.

Weather will happen no matter what the models say.

Tabnabs

A serious bit of ramping going on in Norway a couple of days ago.

Temperature, just beside her elbow.

Iancar29

A tad bit nippy in Kautokeino for sure...

downwiththatsor

GFS 12Z upgrade
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013020612/gfs-2-102.png?12

derekon

Folks, just checking the latest 12z ECMWF (I would take this as the most reliable model), it appears obvious to me that going forward over the next 10 days, there is just not enough cold air to tap into over Scandinavia and Russia..............so how could Ireland possibly get a decent cold snap or a belt of snow? :rolleyes:

Is this too simplistic a view to take?

D

M.T. Cranium

Chances are about one in four or five that enough cold air will hit the Atlantic moisture coming in over the weekend (or late tonight) to generate significant snow in eastern Ireland at low enough elevations for it to become an issue (higher summit snows seem quite likely). Chances are about one in ten for western counties to get that cold at the right time.

These probabilities increase steadily east of the Irish Sea to reach 80% on the North Sea coast of eastern England. So it would not take the biggest model "bust" ever seen to change this balance either way, and nobody really knows for sure how it will play out, but snow is definitely the underdog in this coming battle. The pattern looks reloadable for several weeks and you have to wonder if every episode will play out in favour of rain or mild (and mild relative to severe cold).

That might suggest a 50-50 chance for eastern Ireland over three weeks of multiple scenarios. I wouldn't throw in the towel yet anyway.

Weathering

One sentence. I WOULD throw in the towel
The end