##RAMPING THREAD##

Tabnabs

Weathering wrote: »

One sentence. I WOULD throw in the towel
The end

Ah, don't be so negative

Weathering

Only my opinion,nothing to be optimistic about

derekon

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Chances are about one in four or five that enough cold air will hit the Atlantic moisture coming in over the weekend (or late tonight) to generate significant snow in eastern Ireland at low enough elevations for it to become an issue (higher summit snows seem quite likely). Chances are about one in ten for western counties to get that cold at the right time.

These probabilities increase steadily east of the Irish Sea to reach 80% on the North Sea coast of eastern England. So it would not take the biggest model "bust" ever seen to change this balance either way, and nobody really knows for sure how it will play out, but snow is definitely the underdog in this coming battle. The pattern looks reloadable for several weeks and you have to wonder if every episode will play out in favour of rain or mild (and mild relative to severe cold).

That might suggest a 50-50 chance for eastern Ireland over three weeks of multiple scenarios. I wouldn't throw in the towel yet anyway.

Thanks for the update MT. I do admire your positive outlook in terms of snow for Ireland and I appreciate that your are viewing this island's weather from the viewpoint of western Canada. However, living here in Dublin, it feels that we will not get any decent fall of snow this winter as we are now nearly through the first week of February and time is now ticking, the sun is getting stronger, the nights are getting shorter.

I do of course understand that feelings have no bearing whatsoever on the weather

Anyway, I hope I am proved wrong MT. The coming week will be both interesting and frustrating in equal measures I am sure

D

SnowDancer

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I wouldn't throw in the towel yet anyway.

I'll be hanging in until the bitter end. 20percent chance is better than no chance :-D

red_bairn

SnowDancer wrote: »

I'll be hanging in until the bitter end. 20percent chance is better than no chance :-D

...just look out for these guys:

Geomy

I have a feeling,spring is starting to unfold.
The evenings are getting longer,I had an extra 45 min in the surf this evening
A few days ago I thought I'd be surfing in sleep,and hail....
Plenty of surfs on cold frosty mornings but none with snow yet...
Oh well,we might get a cold snap in March

pauldry

I still think there will be a couple of cold spells before the end.

I dont believe the model predictions anymore coz they are pants.

I think it will be fairly springlike at times but that High Pressure may start to dominate as around now is hovers near us before moving to the med for the Summer and the Azores if it positions itself right it might just drag some cold air at some stage

Dry weather also will be more condusive to cold than rain and mild

Redsunset

It ain't over til the fat lady sings....... and she is not even in the building.

Retrograde could be about to take the stage.

Just had a look at the latest pub run and it's either locked or laughing at us all and saying OK I'm ready now. Let's do this.


Whether we get a cold blast or not the Bottom line is that it's still meteorological winter and see it through before looking for warmth at least.

Redsunset

Also the Zonal wind anomaly graph has moved on a few frames since I told to watch for more easterly influence reaching down and yes we got it now coming down lower. We're past the rocks in the tropospheric pond. Fingers crossed this does indeed help give retrograde a flying start.

Elmer Blooker

Weathering wrote: »

One sentence. I WOULD throw in the towel
The end

C'mon W hang on to your towel!!
I've been ramping up this winter for weeks now telling yiz all to look NE for blocking and I'm not going to stop now
Watch this space.

Irish Steve

Baaahhhhh!!!!

CBS news just broadcasting extreme weather warnings for the North East of USA this weekend, possibility of up to 24" of snow in Blizzard conditions around Boston and area.

having said that, I have to admit that my thoughts then went along the lines that when there's bad weather on the East Coast, its surprising how often we then get bad weather here in Ireland.

If you'd like something else to think about

Sky News UK Weather Forecast

The cold and wintry theme will continue this week, with the risk of widespread snowfall on Sunday.

Tonight, most places will be dry, but exposed coastal areas, mainly northern Scotland and eastern England, will have wintry showers. A slight covering of snow is possible there.

The strong wind will ease giving a widespread hard frost under clear skies, with some icy patches.

By the end of the night, rain will affect the west coast of the Irish Republic.

Tomorrow morning rain will spread across Ireland and western fringes of Scotland, turning to snow over high ground.

Most other places will be dry, despite cloud amounts increasing, but Irish Sea coastal areas and eastern England will have a few showers, some wintry.

The afternoon will bring rain, sleet and snow to more of western Britain, allowing Ireland to dry up. The snow will be mainly over the hills, but will spread to lower levels of central Scotland later.

It'll remain cold, but it won’t be as bitter as Wednesday due to lighter winds.

Friday will be another cold day, with a few showers around, some wintry in the east.

So, could be interesting yet.

ninebeanrows

UPGRADES!

You have to love upgrades.

Heightened snow risk Monday/Tuesday

Not a bad 96hr chart ??!




Nor 120

fr wishy washy

Looks like there could be snow on the East coast on high ground today according to Sky News

dopolahpec

Best chance of snow I've seen for east coast all winter

Conrach

Met office have yellow warning out for snow in the North.

BBC NI forecast have snow coming in from the west shortly and spreading across the country. They say 3cm at low levels but call it temporary snow.

Looking at Raintoday the front in coming into the west now.

ninebeanrows

Conrach wrote: »

Met office have yellow warning out for snow in the North.

BBC NI forecast have snow coming in from the west shortly and spreading across the country. They say 3cm at low levels but call it temporary snow.

Looking at Raintoday the front in coming into the west now.

The NAE does indeed call it as completely snow. Seems very strange considering the forecast dewpoints from the same model.

GFS having none of it.

Conrach

Weathercheck wrote: »

The NAE does indeed call it as completely snow. Seems very strange considering the forecast dewpoints from the same model.

GFS having none of it.

We'll snow soon enough who is right.
The BBC said it will be coming over the north just after 9am. So just missing rush hour in Belfast.
The front does indeed seem to be fast moving, maybe that is where the temporary snow comes from.

red_bairn

Weathercheck wrote: »

UPGRADES!

You have to love upgrades.

Heightened snow risk Monday/Tuesday

Not a bad 96hr chart ??!




Nor 120

Is that big orange blob to the bottom left the Azores high? MT said something about it connecting up with the Scandi high. Does that make a trough?

Am I learned or talking crap?

Rooy

Its a great start to the day when you check MT's latest forecast and model comments and its an upgrade for colder conditions ahead !!

JonnyM

sky news weather giving snow for eastern half from around midday.

seamus

Today?!

It's not even nearly cold enough to snow in the east. Doesn't feel like it anyway.

dopolahpec

seamus wrote: »

Today?!

It's not even nearly cold enough to snow in the east. Doesn't feel like it anyway.

Can't see it myself. The rain has arrived in Dublin

Penname

Hmm, not convinced for today. Strike me down with a dumping of snow if I'm wrong. DP's and temps still too high (Kildare). But as it's a Ramping thread, will keep hoping.

Redsunset

Yes lets Ramp the sh1t outta this while we still can. Bring on heatwaves then.

I'm gonna delete any more non ramping posts as they would be off topic and wrecking me bleedin buzz.

seamus

Redsunset wrote: »

Yes lets Ramp the sh1t outta this while we still can. Bring on heatwaves then.

I'm gonna delete any more non ramping posts as they would be off topic and wrecking me bleedin buzz.

Pelting down with warm snow in Dublin city centre as we speak. It's sticking and everything.

racso1975

seamus wrote: »

Pelting down with warm snow in Dublin city centre as we speak. It's sticking and everything.

Thats gas. I am on Malahide road at Artane roundabout and it's pelting rain!!!

Redsunset

That's a glass half full right there.....

Blizzard 2010

Phoneix Park, Dublin Airport and Casement are all 3 degrees presently so anything is possible as long as it stays like this and the dew points drop a little.:D

Not the real Gerald Fleming

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Phoneix Park, Dublin Airport and Casement are all 3 degrees presently so anything is possible as long as it stays like this and the dew points drop a little.:D

Sleety/Cold rain falling where I am. I live a stones throw from Casement:pac:

Penname

DP and temp here both at 2. (DP actually gone up from 1 in last few mins) *groan*

But it's only 11:10. Plenty of opportunity.