##RAMPING THREAD##

Saganist

I've given up.

Dead_Rabbits

We're on thin ice at this stage!

whitebriar

Saganist wrote: »

I've given up.

You need to read the musings of Ryan the Dutch weatherman on Netweather..

Here's a snippet "there iz no atlantik...snow bomben encommen"

M.T. Cranium

Based on GFS, GME, UKMO and GEM output so far, the needle has swung back to the snow side of the rain-snow line for eastern and northern regions of Ireland. There might still be an elevation cut-off but the uppers are definitely cold enough now as progged to support snow late Sunday and Monday. The 850 temps are slightly colder than we saw at any point in the semi-wintry week mid-January and similar to last Tuesday early morning when it snowed in much of the country. Two things could go wrong with this, the models could backtrack slightly and swing the needle back to the rain side (pushing up the elevation cut-off in other words), or the system could come in further east on later models and fail to advect cold air as far west as necessary.

However, at this point, will be awaiting ECM for confirmation, then would update current forecast to indicate possible 5-15 cm snowfalls in eastern Ireland and parts of Ulster. Higher parts of Connacht could get into a sloppy mix situation, most of Munster probably still on the wrong side of necessary upper parameters but snow on higher ground there for sure.

Rebelbrowser

whitebriar wrote: »

You need to read the musings of Ryan the Dutch weatherman on Netweather..

Here's a snippet "there iz no atlantik...snow bomben encommen"

My assumption is that he's a WUM.......or Steve McClaren.

ninebeanrows

It looks really interesting Monday/Tuesday and not a really quick thaw thereafter.


We need to get the right angle of the low to advect them -8c uppers.

I am very optimistic for snowfall at the moment for large swathes of the country later Sunday/Monday and a sig chance of snow showers for the east thereafter during Tuesday.

Nabber

WeatherCheck, I knew you lied when you said you were throwing in the towel. You fooled no one.

ninebeanrows

I think we're on the brink.

I think the snow event Monday could be just the start of a prolonged cold spell to last well into March.

################RAMP

Dead_Rabbits

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think we're on the brink.

I think the snow event Monday could be just the start of a prolonged cold spell to last well into March.

################RAMP

derekon

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think we're on the brink.

I think the snow event Monday could be just the start of a prolonged cold spell to last well into March.

################RAMP

Hi WC,

I know its a ramp but in reality there is still no cold pool of air out to our east or north so there is nothing for IRELAND to tap into.............does anyone else see this or am I missing something ? Or could things change over the next 4-5 day as the Russian High pushes west..........where is this Russian High I am hearing about on NetWeather? Is it a figment of someone's imagination ? :rolleyes::D

D

ninebeanrows

derekon wrote: »

Hi WC,

I know its a ramp but in reality there is still no cold pool of air out to our east or north so there is nothing for IRELAND to tap into.............does anyone else see this or am I missing something ? Or could things change over the next 4-5 day as the Russian High pushes west..........where is this Russian High I am hearing about on NetWeather? Is it a figment of someone's imagination ? :rolleyes::D

D

Yea the cold pool is weak, however the PV is expected to migrate back to Russian in the coming 3 weeks. Also a cold pool can easily form underneath a potential Scandy/Russian Block. Also the low level cold from the continent will be a key player. And we aren't exactly talking disastrous 850s, probably ~-5c when the slightly deeper cold pool moves west over Ireland Tuesday.

derekon

Weathercheck wrote: »

Yea the cold pool is weak, however the PV is expected to migrate back to Russian in the coming 3 weeks. Also a cold pool can easily form underneath a potential Scandy/Russian Block. Also the low level cold from the continent will be a key player. And we aren't exactly talking disastrous 850s, probably ~-5c when the slightly deeper cold pool moves west over Ireland Tuesday.

Thanks WC, but those -5 upper temps will not generate snow at lower levels - I am correct in saying that ?

Also I note in MT's latest update (which I understand is based on the latest models he has to hand) that only high ground might see snow on Monday and Tuesday................this is the story of the winter so far (particularly the east coast). I mean if its just rain for the vast majority of the population, frankly it ain't of much value to us down at sea level who love snow. Not worth a you know what! It might as well be +15oc and rain than marginal for what its worth!!

D

whitebriar

Well there's a nice bit of snow falling on George lee live from Frankfurt on primetime now...

patneve2

It can snow at lower levels with -5 uppers, but that depends entirely on the source of the air and the dynamics of the particular situation. Last year it snowed in Rome with -2.5 to -3 uppers, demonstrating that if the air is continental and frigid 850s have less of a say.

whitebriar

patneve2 wrote: »

It can snow at lower levels with -5 uppers, but that depends entirely on the source of the air and the dynamics of the particular situation. Last year it snowed in Rome with -2.5 to -3 uppers, demonstrating that if the air is continental and frigid 850s have less of a say.

Very true,it depends on what kind of air that snow flake can fall through between 5k ft and the ground.
All layers of air have a say.
So if the 2m temp over GB and Denmark is -5c for snow cover reasons and 5000ft asl air is just -2c and our surface feed is off that land area even over sea it significantly increases the chances of frontal snow here if there's a front around.
There'd be no sea streamers though.

ninebeanrows

Per Fergie Weather.

fr wishy washy

That's what it looked like today on Sky News and nada happened

icesnowfrost

Weathercheck wrote: »

Per Fergie Weather.

Does that mean snow

red_bairn

fr wishy washy wrote: »

That's what it looked like today on Sky News and nada happened

But it says Monday...so I'm assuming it's for next week, roysh?

mothel

Who's Fergie?

H2UMrsRobinson

I love a ramp more than anyone, but compared to what our neighbours are about to receive across the pond, I've just lost all interest in next week. I never thought I'd say this but I'd rather it didn't bother unless it's going to do it properly - and experience has taught me it probably won't. It's always a week away on the models - never tomorrow. Would love to be on the other east coast right now. Will have to dig out a NYC weather forum tomorrow to get my fix.

whitebriar

mothel wrote: »

Who's Fergie?

The BBC west weather forecaster,Ian Ferguson.
He has access to all the top brass opinion in the Ukmo.
He posts on Netweather as fergieweather

Mr Cumulonimbus

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

I love a ramp more than anyone, but compared to what our neighbours are about to receive across the pond, I've just lost all interest in next week. I never thought I'd say this but I'd rather it didn't bother unless it's going to do it properly - and experience has taught me it probably won't. It's always a week away on the models - never tomorrow. Would love to be on the other east coast right now. Will have to dig out a NYC weather forum tomorrow to get my fix.

NYC this weekend >>>>>

Oneiric 3

Weathercheck wrote: »

Per Fergie Weather.

Perhaps a tad pedantic but something seems wrong with that chart regarding the frontal types used. The relatively colder air is east of those fronts, not west, so the use of a warm front to represent an advancing cold bank of air seems a little odd.

Macy0161

Gerry Murphy ramped away on the 7.55 Radio 1 forecast. Well he mentioned snow, as well as sleet, for Sunday and Monday.

Redsunset

Met Éireann highlighting the uncertainty however a good mention of risk.

"Temperatures will drop further on Sunday night and there'll be a significant risk of snow, especially over Ulster and Leinster"

Somewhere in Leinster Monday morning?:D

whitebriar

Redsunset wrote: »

Somewhere in Leinster Monday morning?:D

Roundwood

whitebriar

Its an occlusion.

Anyway,more of this please.Hard to work it out but I think is -7 uppers into the East,so in a weather front situation,the snowline in the Dublin area might get down to Ballinteer and almost Dundrum...
Similar with light wintry showers.
Very Fi though,with where Fi is lately.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020800/ECF0-192.GIF?08-12

DOCARCH

whitebriar wrote: »

....the snowline in the Dublin area might get down to Ballinteer....

I'll take that! Cheers!

Larbre34

Redsunset wrote: »

Met Éireann highlighting the uncertainty however a good mention of risk.

"Temperatures will drop further on Sunday night and there'll be a significant risk of snow, especially over Ulster and Leinster"

Somewhere in Leinster Monday morning?:D

It resembles Cathal Brugha Street. That would do nicely in Dublin 1!