##RAMPING THREAD##

Wine Goddess

God if only EVERYTHING had been different

(uppers, DPs, Temperature, Some sort of blocking high, and 528 dam)


then today we could have had epic SNOW on the east coast!!!


Every time I see the amount of rain I just groan at the thought of all that precipitation going to waste.....


as rain.

Rock Lesnar

Gonzo wrote: »

I remember it well, I also remember propably one of the warmest and sunniest weeks of 2012 was around the end of March with temperatures hitting 21C, at work/college everyone was outside on the grass eating their lunch over a number of days. Wouldnt mind if the same happens this year.

Man i so wish for even a dry day here, never mind sun and 21c, cos im just so fed up at looking at water flowing by my front door

Penname

Wine Goddess wrote: »

God if only EVERYTHING had been different

(uppers, DPs, Temperature, Some sort of blocking high, and 528 dam)


then today we could have had epic SNOW on the east coast!!!


Every time I see the amount of rain I just groan at the thought of all that precipitation going to waste.....


as rain.

Was just saying this earlier. Was imaging if DP had been just six degrees or so lower. Would have been a whole other story.

derekon

Folks, guess what the temperature is in Moscow right now? Its +2oC, just a few degrees lower than Dublin.

The lowest predicted night time temperature for Moscow for the coming five days is -5oC.

So good plain old common sense tells me that with no severe cold off to our east, the chances of Ireland drawing in some severe cold are to say the least................very slim!

Lets all ponder that for a while in terms of our ongoing search for snow!!

D

Elmer Blooker

Wine Goddess wrote: »

God if only EVERYTHING had been different

(uppers, DPs, Temperature, Some sort of blocking high, and 528 dam)


then today we could have had epic SNOW on the east coast!!!


Every time I see the amount of rain I just groan at the thought of all that precipitation going to waste.....


as rain.

All very true but the worst thing of all is the fact that I don't think we'll ever see a decent easterly again in this country - easterly blasts seem to be extinct now, when was the last genuine beast from the east? Probably 1991? I'm not sure why, perhaps warmer sea surface temperatures have made the Atlantic more energetic?
It's no coincidence that decent snowfalls in this country are the result of Greenland blocking, not just in recent winters but the winter of 2000-1 too.
Whinge over!

derekon

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

All very true but the worst thing of all is the fact that I don't think we'll ever see a decent easterly again in this country - easterly blasts seem to be extinct now, when was the last genuine beast from the east? Probably 1991? I'm not sure why, perhaps warmer sea surface temperatures have made the Atlantic more energetic?
It's no coincidence that decent snowfalls in this country are the result of Greenland blocking, not just in recent winters but the winter of 2000-1 too.
Whinge over!

My God Elmer, that is a frightening thought. The last easterly in Ireland was 22 years ago?!! No wonder then we only have decent snow once every quarter of a century. Better check back here so in 2035 (25 years after 2010)

D

whitebriar

Yes folks I hear you.
Its only the 10th February.. 18 days left in this month in a winter where Fi starts at 96hrs.
Agreed Moscow is warm,but north of there is colder to very cold.
Plenty of time to advect that,it could be here in a week.
Quicker if northeasterly.

Elmer Blooker

derekon wrote: »

My God Elmer, that is a frightening thought. The last easterly in Ireland was 22 years ago?!! No wonder then we only have decent snow once every quarter of a century. Better check back here so in 2035 (25 years after 2010)

D

yes. the last real easterly was that long ago, can anyone can think of another one since then? I don't think so.
I really thought we were on to something this winter, I saw signs of blocking to the NE in December and predicted that it would return - it did in January and now in February but to no avail.
A Greenie or nothing from now on!! :mad:

pistolpetes11

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

All very true but the worst thing of all is the fact that I don't think we'll ever see a decent easterly again in this country - easterly blasts seem to be extinct now, when was the last genuine beast from the east? Probably 1991? I'm not sure why, perhaps warmer sea surface temperatures have made the Atlantic more energetic?
It's no coincidence that decent snowfalls in this country are the result of Greenland blocking, not just in recent winters but the winter of 2000-1 too.
Whinge over!

Ive seen some over the top stuff in here lately but that statement tops them all ,

Elmer Blooker

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Ive seen some over the top stuff in here lately but that statement tops them all ,

Call it an ott statement if you want, I call it an opinion.

icesnowfrost

According to met e it's to get cold again next weekend

Speak Now

icesnowfrost wrote: »

According to met e it's to get cold again next weekend

Yes but the models have struggled past t72/t96 hours this winter so it means almost zilch im afraid.

TheMilkyPirate

Snow in march can fock right off, I love snow as much as anyone on here but march is Cheltenham and nothing gets in the way of Cheltenham!

compsys

icesnowfrost wrote: »

According to met e it's to get cold again next weekend

Mainly dry for Thursday too with light westerly winds. Temperatures Thursday night will fall below freezing and a light frost will form but the frost will clear quickly on Friday as warm air pushes up over the country. Current indications suggest milder conditions for next weekend although there is likely to be rain at times.

Don't think so I'm afraid.

Oneiric 3

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

yes. the last real easterly was that long ago, can anyone can think of another one since then?

I agree with this. Easterlies do seem to be becoming a lot more rare over the last few years, not only in winter, but in all seasons (hence our crap, cold summers lately). The last true winter easterly I think occurred in January 2008 but only lasted about 24 hrs or so. One common myth is that the cold winters of 2009/2010 - 2010/2011 were easterly/continental sourced as well, they were far from it. They were pure Arctic maritime sourced both times.

I wouldn't agree though that this increasing rarity of easterlies is the result of warmer Atlantic sea temps. Sea temps have been almost consistently below normal around NW Europe for a number of years which in my opinion has served no purpose but kill off any potential storms, weaken troughs down to nothing and basically keep us in a very drab and very samey pattern over the last 4 or 5 years or so. I think it is an interesting coincidence that Atlantic storm systems also seem to be decreasing both in strength and frequency lately along with the decline of the easterly.

Edit: Chart showing seasonal mean no. of days with easterlies at Casement for winter season (period 1980-2012) with seasonal mean daily wind speed (knots) for the same for comparison.



Note the downward trend in both data sets (although more pronounced in the mean seasonal wind speed). Also, this does not indicate the source of the easterlies, rather just charts mean no. of days when wind was from the easterly bent so it is harder to know which are true easterlies rather than just the standard returning ones, but interestingly, the chart does show that easterlies were more likely to happen in winters with higher than normal wind speeds, and higher than normal wind speeds in winter tend to indicate an active Atlantic. All theory of course, but it does seem that trends are beginning to emerge.

Data from the European Climate Assessment & Database: http://eca.knmi.nl/

eskimocat

for anyone who remembers the thunder storm in Krakow... well now there is snow there !!!

http://www.krakow.pl/multimedialny_krakow/1849,artykul,wawel_i_zakole_wisly_.html

Joe Public

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I agree with this. Easterlies do seem to be becoming a lot more rare over the last few years, not only in winter, but in all seasons (hence our crap, cold summers lately). The last true winter easterly I think occurred in January 2008 but only lasted about 24 hrs or so. One common myth is that the cold winters of 2009/2010 - 2010/2011 were easterly/continental sourced as well, they were far from it. They were pure Arctic maritime sourced both times.

I wouldn't agree though that this increasing rarity of easterlies is the result of warmer Atlantic sea temps. Sea temps have been almost consistently below normal around NW Europe for a number of years which in my opinion has served no purpose but kill off any potential storms, weaken troughs down to nothing and basically keep us in a very drab and very samey pattern over the last 4 or 5 years or so. I think it is an interesting coincidence that Atlantic storm systems also seem to be decreasing both in strength and frequency lately along with the decline of the easterly.

It's nice to have a fairly new member talking/posting some sense, I hope you have the tolerance to stick around and become a regular contributor.

icesnowfrost

compsys wrote: »

Mainly dry for Thursday too with light westerly winds. Temperatures Thursday night will fall below freezing and a light frost will form but the frost will clear quickly on Friday as warm air pushes up over the country. Current indications suggest milder conditions for next weekend although there is likely to be rain at times.

Don't think so I'm afraid.

I'm referring to the 9 o clock weather forecast were Gerry murphy said at the end " it looks like it could get colder next weekend "

patneve2

The last true easterly occurred in February 2009 - didn't deliver that much in coastal areas but higher up and inland got a lot of snow. Anyways, nothing compared to the 'big ones' (1978/79, 1982, 1987, 1991).

The cold spell of November/December 2010 came in two phases - the first phase was continental arctic (there was a direct siberian fetch at a certain stage) while in the second phase the air was sourced from Greenland (a piece of the polar vortex set up shop over Ireland).

It is just a matter of time before we get a good easterly...even if it takes a few years....

compsys

icesnowfrost wrote: »

I'm referring to the 9 o clock weather forecast were Gerry murphy said at the end " it looks like it could get colder next weekend "

Fair enough. I was only looking at the website. Though my God, how many times this winter have we been told colder weather is on the way only for it never to materialise.

And just to rub more salt into the wounds it's currently snowing in London again lol.

icesnowfrost

Lucky fooks

Irish Steve

compsys wrote: »

And just to rub more salt into the wounds it's currently snowing in London again lol.

Exactly, in the scale of things, for it to be snowing in London, and raining here, that demonstrates more accurately than any discussion just how marginal things are with the weather in this part of the world. It would have taken very little for that difference to have been 150 miles further east, or 150 miles further west, but the outcome here would have been very different.

It was very noticable the last time round, only a few weeks ago, there was snow at Holyhead, and there had been snow all across the UK from Devon to Holyhead, yet only a few miles further west in Dublin, there was NO snow.

I've seen the same in the UK, on more than a few occasions, the office at Bristol would give me a job in Minehead, on the Bristol Channel coast, and I'd say to them, "it will take a while to get there", as while it was raining well in Bristol, 60 miles north west, between me (wellington) and Minehrad, there was likely to be anything up to 1Ft of snow on the hills, and that wasn't the higher levels of Exmoor.

As for Easterly winds, while we may not have had significant cold winds out of the east recently, I've commented on several occasions to a number of people that I've seen 10 in use at Dublin more in the last 2 years than I did in the previous 10 years.

Gonzo

unfortunately tho, it nearly always works out the same way, it's nearly always the wrong side of marginal in Ireland and magically it's nearly always on the good side of marginal in many parts of the UK, its sickening but it's something we just have to learn to live with.

This is what, their 3rd or 4th decent snowfall this winter and im sure they will get at least another snowfall or two after todays snow before winter is over. Last winter was exceptionally mild here, yet the snow still fell in the UK, Same goes for quite a few winters between 1992 and 2008 where we totally missed out.

mountainy man

It's starting to snow very lightly, wasn't expecting it.

Mech1

It's starting to snow very lightly, wasn't expecting it.

Get a vacuum cleaner, suck it all up, and put bag in freezer.

Then Adverts.ie, crazy random stuff, guys here will pay!

ninebeanrows

A stubborn 3.7c here with drizzle/light rain.

There is a reasonable amount of precip falling, another if only it was snow scenario, could of gotten/get 3-5cm.

ninebeanrows

Well the 18z continues with the overall medium term consensus to slowly send a large PV lobe towards Scandy towards the end of Feb.

Winter is far from over. It is only 12th February tomorrow and we can get a severe winter cold spell in Ireland right up until 15th March.

DanRu

Have to agree with WeatherCheck on this one, while not wanting to ramp it up too much , it does seem as if a reload is on the cards. Perhaps this one can take us to the snow side of marginal, the fat lady may have to wait a little while longer! Images of the GFS and ECMWF seem to be in some sort of agreement , strange to see both tie in this far out in FI.

Nabber

I say let the ramping begin. Sure why not? Christmas is over. What else have we got?
Some one told me today that my window wipers needed to be changed, They were making too much noise. I thought to myself (we weather enthusiasts are weird to everyone else) that my wipers were crying because this rain should be snow



ECM not far off


Cold building in Europe ahead of it



No more negativity in here until the thread is closed.
When your team is losing do you watch till the end or walk out like those sore losers?

Come on snow, I still believe

dacogawa

Here's the hail Mary for winter, it's deep into fergie time & we need to score the run looks like an easterly push (beyond 240h to hit us) and we're the Irish & we never give up! who's with me! (till the next run)


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021112/ECM0-192.GIF?11-0
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021112/ECM0-216.GIF?11-0