##RAMPING THREAD##

Geomy

It's very cold here in Clare tonight,earlier the rain turned kinda ice like then back to rain again....
It's not over yet

mike65

I think this thread can be locked for the next few weeks. Unless people want to ramp some mild air instead

compsys

whitebriar wrote: »

That's actually more to do with smartphone/tablet predictive text than anything else.Most people have it on and don't notice what it does.It's a curse.

Something else which is cursed too..my facebook with photo's in news of friends deep in snow near lug in the wicklow alps today!

I'm afraid I have to disagree with you. Predictive text is generally intelligent enough to know the difference between their, there and they're. Besides, the words are all spelt differently so people have to be purposely typing the words in wrong. People just don't know basic grammar these days. You see it in written text all the time too. And don't get me started on the apostrophe :-)

Anyway, MT is hinting again at the possibility of a late winter cold spell. There's been so many near misses this winter that you're either going to think a- the cold has to reach us eventually. Or b- a pattern has been set for this winter and the cold is unlikely to materialise. Let's hope it's a.

whitebriar

compsys wrote: »

I'm afraid I have to disagree with you. Predictive text is generally intelligent enough to know the difference between their, there and they're. Besides, the words are all spelt differently so people have to be purposely typing the words in wrong. People just don't know basic grammar these days. You see it in written text all the time too. And don't get me started on the apostrophe :-)[/

Mine isn't! So it's turned off.
Also I don't think people see txt messaging or bulletin board postings as important enough(compared to CV) to be bothered to make mind.
Btw,my fingers are big,meaning typing things wrong happens,that's common too especially on a phone and again,its not important enough to fix(though I usually do.

Anyway, MT is hinting again at the possibility of a late winter cold spell. There's been so many near misses this winter that you're either going to think a- the cold has to reach us eventually. Or b- a pattern has been set for this winter and the cold is unlikely to materialise. Let's hope it's a.

Into march I'd guess which is not nice
I'd personally prefer November at this stage.

dopolahpec

It's a very different evolution of cold that's showing in late stage ECM compared to previous cold snaps. Look at those deep purples seeping into northern russia, Finland, Norway. Also, it has held, with some slight variations through 2 days of runs. I think there is a better chance of Ireland receiving cold from this set-up with a much quieter Atlantic and a lot less agression in that nw atlantic area where a polar vortex chunk appeared to hang out all winter. The lateness in the season is a bit of a bummer. But hey, this has the potential to deliver some real cold before february ends and there ain't a corner of Ireland that's immune to a february freeze. I am going to ramp it anyway.

Btw ECM now has -8 850s in an easterly flow 8 days away rather than 10. Keep believing

rooney30

Anyway, MT is hinting again at the possibility of a late winter cold spell. There's been so many near misses this winter that you're either going to think a- the cold has to reach us eventually. Or b- a pattern has been set for this winter and the cold is unlikely to materialise. Let's hope it's a.[/QUOTE]

MT has been hinting at the possibilty of cold for a long time now. Trouble is its always a week away:rolleyes:

dopolahpec

rooney30 wrote: »

Anyway, MT is hinting again at the possibility of a late winter cold spell. There's been so many near misses this winter that you're either going to think a- the cold has to reach us eventually. Or b- a pattern has been set for this winter and the cold is unlikely to materialise. Let's hope it's a.

MT has been hinting at the possibilty of cold for a long time now. Trouble is its always a week away:rolleyes:[/Quote]

And it's always just that. A possibility. This is all probability. Like any forecaster he is looking at possible outcomes based upon what the models are showing coupled with his own methods. It doesn't necessarily transpire. In fact it never transpires as the models show it exactly. The models are not reality. They dont see the future they create a possible map of what future weather may look like that hopefully resembles the real thing with increasing accuracy approaching t0.

MT's forecasts have been good I think. If you go back he actually progged real cold from middle of feb. We are only there now. We may still see it in a week. If we don't I still think he called general macro-scale things very well.

desolate sun

I havent read this entire thread but I do follow this forum. And I just want to voice my opinion on this Winter. Another disappointing winter. I had a morning of snow (gone by lunchtime, and only stuck to grass), which was better that last Winter where I saw NO SNOW AT ALL! And I am in love with snow, so having serious withdrawal symptoms.

I went to the UK for the New Year for a week. It was mild enough there and just as I was travelling to the airport for my flight home, the place was frosted over.
Lo and behold when I was back in Ireland they got snow for 2 weeks.
And now there are reports that the snow is back and what do we get in Ireland - double figures.

Is anyone else just flipping FED UP of this washout of a winter?
It started so promisingly with frosty weather but then the mildness crept in.


So depressed right now, wanting my snow

whitebriar

mike65 wrote: »

I think this thread can be locked for the next few weeks. Unless people want to ramp some mild air instead

Spring

Ar dheis De go raibh a aman

compsys

I love snow but to save everyone's sanity and so that we all have a realistic idea of what the weather is going to be like it would actually be great if people posted more runs like this during winter so that we have a more balanced and realistic view of what the models are showing.

People can then view all the various runs (showing both the really mild and the really cold) and try come to a better, more balanced idea as to how the weather is actually going to pan out.

dopolahpec

compsys wrote: »

I love snow but to save everyone's sanity and so that we all have a realistic idea of what the weather is going to be like it would actually be great if people posted more runs like this during winter so that we have a more balanced and realistic view of what the models are showing.

People can then view all the various runs (showing both the really mild and the really cold) and try come to a better, more balanced idea as to how the weather is actually going to pan out.

But that's a chart showing a cold easterly?

icesnowfrost

Lucky ****ers

dopolahpec

Where's the ramping guys?

guys?

3rd day in a row the ECM continues to progress cold forward in FI. In addition the UKMO is predicting an easterly influence from about 144 hours.

Tonight's ECM is stupendous for cold in FI, a proper easterly sweeping across Northern Europe across the UK and into Ireland.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021312/ECM1-216.GIF?13-0

Something about this one feels right to me.

I believe we will see snow the last week of February.

derekon

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Lucky ****ers

No, they are not lucky icesnowfrost - that precipitation is falling as rain not snow over the UK, might be snow for higher ground.

Check out some UK cities in that zone for current weather conditions (London, Birmingham, Brighton). May I suggest www.weather.co.uk for your search?

I think that UK snow App is aspirational more than anything else!

D

red_bairn

dopolahpec wrote: »

Where's the ramping guys?

guys?

3rd day in a row the ECM continues to progress cold forward in FI. In addition the UKMO is predicting an easterly influence from about 144 hours.

Tonight's ECM is stupendous for cold in FI, a proper easterly sweeping across Northern Europe across the UK and into Ireland.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021312/ECM1-216.GIF?13-0

Something about this one feels right to me.

I believe we will see snow the last week of February.

If this shizzle comes up solid in the 72 to 96hrs frame, I might have to work very hard on completing my Virtualization project over this weekend or during the start of next week. I doubt I'd wanna work if it starts snowing.

derekon

And it starts all over again the 12z ECM just released is simply stunning with very cold upper temps creeping over Ireland Thursday of next week, then firmly established on Saturday week.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

All in FI , appreciated.

But could MT Cranium really be onto something with this beast from the east in February?

Will winter have a bite in its tail ? :rolleyes:

Oh the suspense is killing me!!

D

compsys

dopolahpec wrote: »

But that's a chart showing a cold easterly?

Sh*ite. Is it lol? Apologies if I got it woefully wrong.

I still agree with my point though.

John.Icy

derekon wrote: »

No, they are not lucky icesnowfrost - that precipitation is falling as rain not snow over the UK, might be snow for higher ground.

Check out some UK cities in that zone for current weather conditions (London, Birmingham, Brighton). May I suggest www.weather.co.uk for your search?

I think that UK snow App is aspirational more than anything else!

D

A lot of the UK has seen snow today I do believe.

red_bairn

John.Icy wrote: »

A lot of the UK has seen snow today I do believe.

What I said to a mate in manchester after he was complaining about the rain after the snow:

Well at least you guys get snow! It tries to cross the Irish sea and gets "cold feet" and stays on mainland Europe and UK...

icesnowfrost

derekon wrote: »

No, they are not lucky icesnowfrost - that precipitation is falling as rain not snow over the UK, might be snow for higher ground.

Check out some UK cities in that zone for current weather conditions (London, Birmingham, Brighton). May I suggest www.weather.co.uk for your search?

I think that UK snow App is aspirational more than anything else!

D

But it is snow because the app works on tweets from people that are reporting it in there area

ninebeanrows

Well the GFS really isn't playing ball.

The ECM OP is on the cold side of its EPS but its consistency over the last few days cannot be ignored. The winter seasons is set to finish just like it began, with lots of model uncertainty and lots of hope for a deep cold spell in the medium term.

dopolahpec

The GFS is playing ball this morning.

So is the GEM

And the UKMO

And the ECM

Can ye remember how to ramp??

MT will be polishing his ramp now. I am sure of it.

About a day or so until the snow bunnies reappear.

derekon

dopolahpec wrote: »

The GFS is playing ball this morning.

So is the GEM

And the UKMO

And the ECM

Can ye remember how to ramp??

MT will be polishing his ramp now. I am sure of it.

About a day or so until the snow bunnies reappear.

How is the GFS playing ball this morning? It is showing no sign of any -8oC upper temps over Ireland right up until the 2nd March!!

D

DOCARCH

derekon wrote: »

How is the GFS playing ball this morning? It is showing no sign of any -8oC upper temps over Ireland right up until the 2nd March!!

Yeah, GFS and ECM are very different...opposites almost.

dopolahpec

The GFS has taken a significant step toward the other models in the short term. Its not worth looking at the later stages when its early stages are changing so much. IT IS COMING INTO LINE.Great consistency from ECM

What happened to ramping? I nearly got run out of here for calling previous efforts as damp squibs.

This time I see something good coming. Its no marginal thing either.

Though it is a while out yet.

Deank

dopolahpec wrote: »

The GFS is playing ball this morning.

So is the GEM

And the UKMO

And the ECM

Can ye remember how to ramp??

MT will be polishing his ramp now. I am sure of it.

About a day or so until the snow bunnies reappear.

We're still here lurking

200motels

Deank wrote: »

We're still here lurking

We're here waiting for it to come but I think we're living in hope.

dopolahpec

200motels wrote: »

We're here waiting for it to come but I think we're living in hope.

It's the last throw of the dice. But as last throws go I think it is decent.

Darwin

Yep, it's pretty much last chance saloon, it would be fascinating to get an icy March in contrast to the weather last year.

whitebriar

An easterly is ok but not as good as a northeasterly for most of the east coast,so you want that pv to drop down into Scandinavia.
The easterly would need to be blowing strong for a min of 5 days to get cold in from north of moscow.
It's currently cooling down nicely over there but not severe enough for to survive the advection journey to us.
Remember,you need a min of -8 850 air to get decent convection over the Irish sea,-10 is the sweet spot for whoppers.
Less than that and its more hit and miss marginal light muck.


http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=dme