##RAMPING THREAD##

ninebeanrows · 14-02-2013 11:08am

ECM is amazing but ECM EPS not quite as bullish as you would expect but very good continuity with the overall synoptic to 168hrs.

Certainly no let up in the painstaking model watching, hopefully this time it will be worth it!

sunbabe08 · 14-02-2013 1:02pm

is there something coming?

Deank · 14-02-2013 1:04pm

sunbabe08 wrote: »

is there something coming?

Potential for cold and snow from mid next week, still too far out to call but worth a final ramp anyway.

You won't have to worry about it though, I believe the Cork snow shield will be on full power;):p

ZX7R · 14-02-2013 1:16pm

whitebriar wrote: »

An easterly is ok but not as good as a northeasterly for most of the east coast,so you want that pv to drop down into Scandinavia.
The easterly would need to be blowing strong for a min of 5 days to get cold in from north of moscow.
It's currently cooling down nicely over there but not severe enough for to survive the advection journey to us.
Remember,you need a min of -8 850 air to get decent convection over the Irish sea,-10 is the sweet spot for whoppers.
Less than that and its more hit and miss marginal light muck.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=dme

I agree with whitebriar we defiantly need a north easterly air flow,as much of Eastern Europe are only having an average winter by there standards(except parts of Russia) last year most of Eastern Europe had one of there worst winters in a long time with day time tematures below -12 and night time teampatures down to -28 and below,this year these parts of Eastern Europe have had a hand full of nights were tematures were below -18, day time tematuresare only around -6 to + 3 on average also snow fall has been below average with less consecutive days with snow cover.
I know this is the ramping tread ,but i don't have much belief in an easterly delivering anything if it does happen.
But an north easterly i would believe in as most Eastern weather site's believe north Eastern Europe will get hit hard with a cold spell the end of this month.

John.Icy · 14-02-2013 1:42pm

GFS at the very top end of the ensembles which is encouraging. Hopwfully we'll see a better 12z op. Control 6z was very good too.

If this comes off, hopefully we'll see a transition from Easterlies to North easterlies quick enough. The longer we stay in an easterly flow the quicker the cold gets mixed out with milder air to our east. Any NE feed should be colder, added with relocating PV there'll be plenty of severe cold lurking to our N and NE.

Fingers and toes crossed for this one.

whitebriar · 14-02-2013 2:55pm

John.Icy wrote: »

GFS at the very top end of the ensembles which is encouraging. Hopwfully we'll see a better 12z op. Control 6z was very good too.

If this comes off, hopefully we'll see a transition from Easterlies to North easterlies quick enough. The longer we stay in an easterly flow the quicker the cold gets mixed out with milder air to our east. Any NE feed should be colder, added with relocating PV there'll be plenty of severe cold lurking to our N and NE.

Fingers and toes crossed for this one.

Agreed actually.The easterly should drop humidity and hence dewpoints.
That leaves less work for a northeasterly.

Irish Steve · 14-02-2013 3:59pm

ZX7R wrote: »

I agree with whitebriar we defiantly need a north easterly air flow

Be careful what you wish for, the Isle of Man can do nasty things to the North Easterly, and it has the potential to upset a lot of snow bunnies very quickly. Nothing worse than hearing about multiple inches of snow at somewhere like the airport, and seeing nothing in Balbriggan or Dublin.;););)

Living in Ashbourne, NE's make things interesting, as there's no way to know if they will carry this far inland or not.

The ramp is showing signs of becoming yet another roller coaster. Oh JOY! ( I think) At least I can put my hands on the snow chains and other suitable equipment if I need it.

dacogawa · 14-02-2013 5:05pm

GFS starting to fall in a bit

moving further east on this run. update the cold has moved over 1000km towards the east on this run :O

gfs-1-168.png?6

munsterlegend · 14-02-2013 5:48pm

dacogawa wrote: »

GFS starting to fall in a bit moving further east on this run. update the cold has moved over 1000km to the east on this run :O

I presume you mean to the west?!

dacogawa · 14-02-2013 6:00pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

dacogawa wrote: »

GFS starting to fall in a bit moving further east on this run. update the cold has moved over 1000km to the east on this run :O

I presume you mean to the west?!

oops, meant to say 'towards' excitement got me

sunbabe08 · 14-02-2013 6:12pm

dacogawa wrote: »

GFS starting to fall in a bit moving further east on this run. update the cold has moved over 1000km towards the east on this run :O

ahhh is this what we are getting excited about? are you kidding me? lads i'm all for positive thinking, but this just ridiculous.

corksurfer2005 · 14-02-2013 6:42pm

sunbabe08 wrote: »

ahhh is this what we are getting excited about? are you kidding me? lads i'm all for positive thinking, but this just ridiculous.

That's the GFS, the model showing the least cold outcome, he's just pointing out that it's starting to backtrack towards the colder outlook being shown on the ECM and UKMO.

Mr Bumble · 14-02-2013 10:32pm

Quickest ramp I ever did see on RTE ..... a nanosecond chart with a lot of blue extending from Moscow and a bundle of arrows pointing west....."progressively cold." the lady said....she may even have said "progressively very cold"........all aboard!!!!!

pauldry · 14-02-2013 10:33pm

Progressively colder next week

Siobhan ryan

Bejubby · 14-02-2013 11:27pm

Hi Siobhan :-)

Davaeo09 · 14-02-2013 11:57pm

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Quickest ramp I ever did see on RTE ..... a nanosecond chart with a lot of blue extending from Moscow and a bundle of arrows pointing west....."progressively cold." the lady said....she may even have said "progressively very cold"........all aboard!!!!!

Its funny how few people are jumping on board for this. I think this may be the shocker we've been praying for.

Give it another 2 or 3 days and if the models are still keen this place will explode :P

PauloMN · 15-02-2013 12:01am

Davaeo09 wrote: »

Its funny how few people are jumping on board for this. I think this may be the shocker we've been praying for.

Give it another 2 or 3 days and if the models are still keen this place will explode :P

It's not really, this thread has been crying "wolf" a bit too much this winter!

aboyro · 15-02-2013 12:02am

i'm on for this roller coaster whatever the result. climbing and a dropping,dropping and a climbing:D:D bring it

H2UMrsRobinson · 15-02-2013 12:11am

Yep still here. Have been all along. Lurking...waiting...hoping. It's still 6 days away yet, still plenty of time for it all to go tits up.

icesnowfrost · 15-02-2013 12:14am

It's going to snow all over Ireland ........ Except cork

ninebeanrows · 15-02-2013 12:31am

It is the RAMPING thread!

ninebeanrows · 15-02-2013 12:33am

It looks like we'll get some low level cold in from mid next week then a fine cold pool towards the end.

After this it is very uncertain, a negative sign tonight is a retreat from height rises over Greenland which has been missing all winter and as some alluded too, is often forecast at 192/240hrs but come T72 is always watered down.

eskimocat · 15-02-2013 2:37am

Ugggghhhhhh.... and we are off again.... the thing with this ramping thread was I forgot to get off at the last stop and now we are off again for another round of up and down...up and down....... my poor head is spinning, my stomach is up in my throat and from the looks of the charts its going stay like that for at least another week!!!! groan.... must hang on... grin and check the charts..... winter is not done yet..... the postman said it and so did MT so it must be true... comm'n you can do it... just hang on in there....

Maybe I should have given up snow for lent... or maybe just the ramping thread.....:pac:

Weathering · 15-02-2013 2:39am

eskimocat wrote: »

Ugggghhhhhh.... and we are off again.... the thing with this ramping thread was I forgot to get off at the last stop and now we are off again for another round of up and down...up and down....... my poor head is spinning, my stomach is up in my throat and from the looks of the charts its going stay like that for at least another week!!!! groan.... must hang on... grin and check the charts..... winter is not done yet..... the postman said it and so did MT so it must be true... comm'n you can do it... just hang on in there....

Maybe I should have given up snow for lent... or maybe just the ramping thread.....:pac:

Did you take your meds today. haha jk
You summed up the situation perfectly

Davaeo09 · 15-02-2013 3:13am

Weathering wrote: »

Did you take your meds today. haha jk
You summed up the situation perfectly

When do you guys think its time enough to get excited?

Im fairly new to model watching but it definitely seems more and more are hinting at a blast from the east. Or am I totally wrong on that?

Lagoona Blue · 15-02-2013 3:23am

one last chance at this now before we wrap it up for the winter . Let's hope it be a good'un

dopolahpec · 15-02-2013 7:03am

GFS is definitely on board now.

Anyone going to dispute that this morning?

*Applys turtle wax to my ramp.

Hello snow bunnies

derekon · 15-02-2013 8:01am

dopolahpec wrote: »

GFS is definitely on board now.

Anyone going to dispute that this morning?

*Applys turtle wax to my ramp.

Hello snow bunnies

It is accepted that the GFS is now on board. However the 0z ECM just released shows -8oC temps over Ireland for just one day and then its back to -4oC upper temps. Not good - it would appear that with this easterly, there is just not enough cold to feed off from the continent. Does the word "typical" come to mind anyone?

PS , its accepted that this is all in FI so things could radically change by next Thursday / Friday and its good to see that the overall "pattern" is now developing to one of an easterly so there is potential - we just need some decent cold in place now.

D

dopolahpec · 15-02-2013 9:28am

derekon wrote: »

It is accepted that the GFS is now on board. However the 0z ECM just released shows -8oC temps over Ireland for just one day and then its back to -4oC upper temps. Not good - it would appear that with this easterly, there is just not enough cold to feed off from the continent. Does the word "typical" come to mind anyone?

PS , its accepted that this is all in FI so things could radically change by next Thursday / Friday and its good to see that the overall "pattern" is now developing to one of an easterly so there is potential - we just need some decent cold in place now.

D

The cold upper temperatures are changing in each run as the shape of the pressure systems change. They could easily upgrade.

GFS has colder uppers into FI than the ECM.

whitebriar · 15-02-2013 9:30am

derekon wrote: »

It is accepted that the GFS is now on board. However the 0z ECM just released shows -8oC temps over Ireland for just one day and then its back to -4oC upper temps. Not good - it would appear that with this easterly, there is just not enough cold to feed off from the continent. Does the word "typical" come to mind anyone?

PS , its accepted that this is all in FI so things could radically change by next Thursday / Friday and its good to see that the overall "pattern" is now developing to one of an easterly so there is potential - we just need some decent cold in place now.

D

The only thing we can be certain of now is a high probability of an easterly influence next week,just how cold who knows?
Last nights 12z ecm was one potential outcome with a lower probability but still possible.
We won't see anything bar a few flurries along the east coast with this mornings ecm,another possibility.
Lets see.
The gfs in my book is only usefull for t24 and under in these situations in my book.

##RAMPING THREAD##

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