##RAMPING THREAD##

Rebelbrowser

Folks the 6z GFS is looking very good with -8's reaching the North and East by next Thursday... still rolling out.

dacogawa

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Folks the 6z GFS is looking very good with -8's reaching the North and East by next Thursday... still rolling out.

Yep, it seems to have moved even more towards the west than yesterday
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013021506/gfs-1-144.png?6

M.T. doesn't seem upbeat about it though ?

Rebelbrowser

Actually as it went on the 6z run become a little less impressive - but within the next week it was very good and there's little point in looking beyond t168 (at most).

However, completely disregarding my own last sentence, it also had an even better northerly outbreak en route in the early days of March!

Rebelbrowser

dacogawa wrote: »

M.T. doesn't seem upbeat about it though ?

Yeah, its kind of hard to reconcile with him ramping up this February since last October. Sadly, he knows best probably....

delw

Dry & cold seems to be whats on the cards unless the Irish sea peps up some showers

compsys

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Yeah, its kind of hard to reconcile with him ramping up this February since last October. Sadly, he knows best probably....

To be honest, and I'm probably gonna get some flack for this, I think Met Eireann know best. Until they're on board I'm not gonna get too excited.

Met E have consistently downplayed the prospects for snow all winter. And do you know what? We've gotten practically no snow so they've been highly accurate with most of their forecasts.

Yes, they've chopped and changed their minds a few times but so have the models and M T as well...

Mr Bumble

dacogawa wrote: »

Yep, it seems to have moved even more towards the west than yesterday
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013021506/gfs-1-144.png?6

M.T. doesn't seem upbeat about it though ?

I suspect keeping powder dry. If I remember, he ramped an 80% for east cost snow in the last schnizzle outbreak. That said, he's been sticking an asterisk on his thoughts since November concerning the timing of the coldest outbreak and it is certainly looking more and more promising for a sting in tha tail winter. FI has been pushing cold towards us from the east for over a week and -8 uppers have been dawdling longer in each run.
My garden is alive with spring and with all due respect to the postman, various birds and bees were obviously in the jax when god was handing out the ability to sense bad weather ahead. Like many realists here, they've made a call that winter is over.....now there's an odd alliance:p

whitebriar

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Yeah, its kind of hard to reconcile with him ramping up this February since last October. Sadly, he knows best probably....

In fairness to Mt,he is reasonably confident of his research model and it's window of opportunity for a prolongedish cold splurge up to march 10th.
He relies on the models though to pin down the exact detail.
He made a mistake in week one of february in calling a severe spell as starting.But if next week heralds one,then he's still right within his parameters and respect for that.

The man who never makes a mistake,never makes anything.

Macy0161

compsys wrote: »

To be honest, and I'm probably gonna get some flack for this, I think Met Eireann know best. Until they're on board I'm not gonna get too excited.

They were calling snow flurries for next week on the 9.30 forecast last night.

Mr Bumble wrote:

suspect keeping powder dry. If I remember, he ramped an 80% for east cost snow in the last schnizzle outbreak.

In fairness (and I know you clarified), he went 80% not 100% for snow.

ninebeanrows

GFS 6z looks good but I am always sceptical of the GFS, it is as if its projecting what it should have done 2 days ago. Playing catch up to the ECM and GFS but nonetheless it's great to have it on board.

Although uppers look a bit suspect after Friday, remember low level cold feed may play a part, all far away yet.

Geomy

I was looking at the Magicseaweed surf report and its all easterly winds for the foreseeable forecast.....

Easterly winds with a good swell is great for the surfers

delw

Geomy wrote: »

I was looking at the Magicseaweed surf report and its all easterly winds for the foreseeable forecast.....

Easterly winds with a good swell is great for the surfers

Not so good for snow bunnies

compsys

delw wrote: »

Not so good for snow bunnies

Why is that?

delw

compsys wrote: »

Why is that?

Cold dry continental air unless there is a battleground over us, as far as i know

compsys

delw wrote: »

Cold dry continental air unless there is a battleground over us, as far as i know

No, not really.

If the 850 temps are low enough (around -8) it'll lead to convection over the Irish sea leading to lots of snow on the East coast. An easterly certainly isn't bad for snow. The GFS is showing -8 uppers over Ireland on a few days next week (all still FI for now of course).

An easterly isn't perfect for snow, but conditions in Ireland never will be.

DOCARCH

12z looks like it's modeling another* slider low situation with low centre to south of Ireland, moving SE, and drawing in cold air to it's northern side.

* when I say another - have seen a couple of these modelled this winter for them to go t**s up/go all marginal. :rolleyes:

The Assistinator

Mr Bumble wrote: »

I suspect keeping powder dry. If I remember, he ramped an 80% for east cost snow in the last schnizzle outbreak. That said, he's been sticking an asterisk on his thoughts since November concerning the timing of the coldest outbreak and it is certainly looking more and more promising for a sting in tha tail winter. FI has been pushing cold towards us from the east for over a week and -8 uppers have been dawdling longer in each run.
My garden is alive with spring and with all due respect to the postman, various birds and bees were obviously in the jax when god was handing out the ability to sense bad weather ahead. Like many realists here, they've made a call that winter is over.....now there's an odd alliance:p

in fairness mt made a call and he said 80 % chance so that leaves 20% chance it was not going to happen as it was a marginal event i believe mt done ok with this, and the same event met e kept changing there forecast with the money, information and all available to them they should be a lot better and more accurate.
as someone who has been on here relying on mt s forecast for a long time i have a lot more respect for what he does than those in met e.
anyhow rant over as i dont have a clue how to predict weather il just have to keep hoping for my fix of snow whenever it decides to show up and keep an eye out for the guys in the know here many thanks for keeping us posted.:D

lucernarian

martyo wrote: »

in fairness mt made a call and he said 80 % chance so that leaves 20% chance it was not going to happen as it was a marginal event i believe mt done ok with this, and the same event met e kept changing there forecast with the money, information and all available to them they should be a lot better and more accurate.
as someone who has been on here relying on mt s forecast for a long time i have a lot more respect for what he does than those in met e.
anyhow rant over as i dont have a clue how to predict weather il just have to keep hoping for my fix of snow whenever it decides to show up and keep an eye out for the guys in the know here many thanks for keeping us posted.:D

80% chance for something as fickle as a weather forecast (especially with regard to timing etc) is in itself as close to certainty as is realistically possible. I think he's an excellent forecaster but mesoscale (or rather microscale) forecasting in this part of the world would not be his trump card. If I remember correctly, he's even said as much. The likes of Weathercheck, whitebriar or su campu, were he still here, would have been best at that.

And in fairness, the higher resolution models didn't handle the temperatures so well below 850 hPa. At times, temperature forecasts at 925 or 850 hPa for even 6 hours away were over 1 degree off.

Rebelbrowser

If no one else is going to ramp I will (being drunk helps). If the 12z's tomorrow are still showing what is on the 18z tonight theres gonna be sneachta go leir from Wednesday next week! Of course I have no jinxed it.

Harps

Looks very dry to me for much of the country, Donegal seeing no precip at all for the next 12 days going by the 12Z GFS, I think its safe to say that wont happen



Too late in the season for my liking for cold weather but if its accompanied by a few refreshing dry and bright days then I'll gladly take it over the constant blandness that this month has offered so far. Too far out to look seriously at any significant cold spell though potential is obviously there, probably Monday or Tuesday before there's a clearer solution on that

The Assistinator

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

80% chance for something as fickle as a weather forecast (especially with regard to timing etc) is in itself as close to certainty as is realistically possible. I think he's an excellent forecaster but mesoscale (or rather microscale) forecasting in this part of the world would not be his trump card. If I remember correctly, he's even said as much. The likes of Weathercheck, whitebriar or su campu, were he still here, would have been best at that.

And in fairness, the higher resolution models didn't handle the temperatures so well below 850 hPa. At times, temperature forecasts at 925 or 850 hPa for even 6 hours away were over 1 degree off.

i still do not see what your getting at here with 80% it still means there is 20% margain for error if it was a certainty it would be a hundred percent. while i know he doesnt always get it right he does more so than not and the likes of weathercheck, whitebriar, maq and others always keep us on the right track( there knoweldge is invaluble to us weather newbies) i feel there are a few posters lately trying to undermine the last few real weather experts we have on here.
I would love to have the like of su campu, darkman and others back here again (god i miss darkman he could ramp like noone else) the place is not the same without them.

barney 20v

Acknowledging the skill and effort mt etc puts in is one thing, but to be accused of undermining him and other "senior posters" if you dare to disagree with the given forecasts is not on IMO.
Mt was the reason I joined boards initially.. However he called the previous cold spell wrong...I still remain to be convinced of this "cold /snowy end to February.. Research or no research....
Just to clarify I to love snow ! And I am a daily reader of MTs forecasts...but to call something so marginal as 80% likely to happen was wrong!

dopolahpec

No downgrades over night anyway. If anything big upgrade re: lower upper temperatures on ECM.

kingshankly

barney 20v wrote: »

Acknowledging the skill and effort mt etc puts in is one thing, but to be accused of undermining him and other "senior posters" if you dare to disagree with the given forecasts is not on IMO.
Mt was the reason I joined boards initially.. However he called the previous cold spell wrong...I still remain to be convinced of this "cold /snowy end to February.. Research or no research....
Just to clarify I to love snow ! And I am a daily reader of MTs forecasts...but to call something so marginal as 80% likely to happen was wrong!

I find the forecasting to be spot on but evaluating the odds of probability way off if something is 80% that means out of every 5 times it will happen 4 which in Ireland is highly unlikely
Same with the postman saying there was a 95% chance of significant snow before Christmas
These people are excellent forecasters and in mt he is my first call every morning but bookies or odds compilers they ain't

ninebeanrows

Where is everybody! Feels like a Spring day today, but it sure wont this time next week!

Great charts

JanuarySnowstor

Doesn't feel very Spring like here, damp dark and miserable sums it up!

Yes indeed great charts for later next week with more or less model consensus on a severe wintry spell. Daytime maxes are between 2-5 though which is reflective of the fact that we are past mid Feb. Also nightime maxes not remarkable due to the strength of the wind.
Still, its the best all Winter if charts concur

snowstorm445

The problem is that we are still a week away from these charts, and getting these sort of charts within at least 4 days or even less is crucial. These are still too far out in my opinion.

Brilliant charts nonetheless.

The Assistinator

barney 20v wrote: »

Acknowledging the skill and effort mt etc puts in is one thing, but to be accused of undermining him and other "senior posters" if you dare to disagree with the given forecasts is not on IMO.
Mt was the reason I joined boards initially.. However he called the previous cold spell wrong...I still remain to be convinced of this "cold /snowy end to February.. Research or no research....
Just to clarify I to love snow ! And I am a daily reader of MTs forecasts...but to call something so marginal as 80% likely to happen was wrong!

my whole problem with this at the minute is people with no research coming on and calling on how wrong these forcasters are, these are the people with the knowledge and knowhow to try pedict what is going to happen but then the get slaughtered by some dude coming in and calling an end to winter because his neighbour told him so:rolleyes:
weathercheck your getting us excited again is it time to jump on again:D

Rebelbrowser

Just in case the silence is worrying anyone the models at 12z (GFS and UKMO) are still pretty good. Uppers aren't crazy cold but there are -8s likely for a while for all and chances of better - and this all in the next week. Thereafter some seriously cold stuff from the north dropping southwards but present indications are it will just miss us. Who knows though?

Next week could yet downgrade (mind you getting near reliable timeframe) but just as easily could upgrade to go from good to great. On an imby basis, south and east look best placed for sneachta as things stand though details of that unforecastable at this range.

Mr Bumble

martyo wrote: »

my whole problem with this at the minute is people with no research coming on and calling on how wrong these forcasters are, these are the people with the knowledge and knowhow to try pedict what is going to happen but then the get slaughtered by some dude coming in and calling an end to winter because his neighbour told him so:rolleyes:
weathercheck your getting us excited again is it time to jump on again:D

You don't need to spend years studying the weather to know when a forecast is wrong. Such is the precarious nature of prediction. The only certainty is after the event.
Anyone who studies meteorology and makes daily and very public predictions accepts the risk of inaccuracy. In the case of MT, he prints a disclaimer. To point out a mistake is simply to report reality. From what I've read in older posts, this is a real time experiment he is conducting so those who challenge his results or point out inaccuracies are simply playing a role.
I've never seen anyone being 'slaughtered' here. Sure, when there's a flush of occasional posters seeking information about a bad weather event in a weather forum (novel idea that), there is a sense of irritation among those who are clearly knowledgeable and confident enough in their own knowledge to dispute the finer points of models etc. and finds themselves trading insults with those who clearly have no clue at all.
But there's also a good deal of posturing and chest puffing here too and what I always find hilarious is the certainty displayed when people are on high horses (often) when everyone seems to agree that the only certainty about this field is uncertainty.