##RAMPING THREAD##

dacogawa

Hi Guys, if you want to compare forecasters that's fine but would you mind starting a new thread about it please, in there you can have these who's right, who's wrong discussion exclusively. This is the ramping thread & every 2nd post now seems to be about the other topic. Thanks P.S. MT rules

Anyway, in my opinion the difference between this cold spell that could be happening next week & the ones that didn't over the last few months is that the models are in agreement now, probably for the first time all winter

pistolpetes11

snowstorm445 wrote: »

The silence speaks volumes. The ECM has the high even further south, giving us dry and frosty weather whilst the majority of the snow gets sent to France. This is backed up by most models.

It really is just a repeat of what we've been seeing throughout this winter. Hyped up snow events that are either watered down in the end or don't even materialise.

No one hyped this up ,

Its been very quite in here lately , more than likely down to the " I told you so's" knocking about and throwing the toys out it we dont have days of sub zero temps

snowstorm445

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

No one hyped this up ,

Its been very quite in here lately , more than likely down to the " I told you so's" knocking about and throwing the toys out it we dont have days of sub zero temps

I meant to say hyped up by the charts. We've been fairly calm about this supposed cold spell, once bitten twice shy I suppose.

barney 20v

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

No one hyped this up ,

Its been very quite in here lately , more than likely down to the " I told you so's" knocking about and throwing the toys out it we dont have days of sub zero temps

Strange comment .... One which IMO would put off potential posters for fear of being unfairly categorised .
I think the light activity here reflects the models... Calm with not much to report!
As to no one hyping this up?? I see posters doing just that here in the last 12 hours??

Harps

I wouldn't call it hyped up at all compared to the rest of the winter, the place has been dead for the past two weeks. Forecast is still much the same as well, cold, dry and settled. The depth of cold is the main uncertainty but for me at least I'm not bothered about it this late in the season, dry and bright with a refreshing wind chill will do just fine.

The most notable thing about the spell could (hopefully) be how dry it'll be, the 12Z GFS for example has no precip whatsoever right out to 192h and beyond for the whole western half of the country. A significant change considering there hasn't been a single dry day recorded in the country so far this year.

pauldry

Let me be the first to ramp up dry weather. It will be first time a prolonged dry spell 2013. Can finally fix the shed

shmaupel

pauldry wrote: »

Let me be the first to ramp up dry weather. It will be first time a prolonged dry spell 2013. Can finally fix the shed

Here here :-)

edit: after deep thought and one second on google...I think that should actually read 'hear hear'

rc28

pauldry wrote: »

Let me be the first to ramp up dry weather. It will be first time a prolonged dry spell 2013. Can finally fix the shed

+1

I cannot remember the last time we have had a proper spell of dry weather (Spring 2012??). This week should really help the land dry up a bit and hopefully there will be some good sunshine to make up for the months of cloudy wet gloom.

The Assistinator

Mr Bumble wrote: »

You don't need to spend years studying the weather to know when a forecast is wrong. Such is the precarious nature of prediction. The only certainty is after the event.
Anyone who studies meteorology and makes daily and very public predictions accepts the risk of inaccuracy. In the case of MT, he prints a disclaimer. To point out a mistake is simply to report reality. From what I've read in older posts, this is a real time experiment he is conducting so those who challenge his results or point out inaccuracies are simply playing a role.
I've never seen anyone being 'slaughtered' here. Sure, when there's a flush of occasional posters seeking information about a bad weather event in a weather forum (novel idea that), there is a sense of irritation among those who are clearly knowledgeable and confident enough in their own knowledge to dispute the finer points of models etc. and finds themselves trading insults with those who clearly have no clue at all.
But there's also a good deal of posturing and chest puffing here too and what I always find hilarious is the certainty displayed when people are on high horses (often) when everyone seems to agree that the only certainty about this field is uncertainty.

it was not to long ago here when people did get slaughterd here and a lot of very insightful posters left as someone who reads this forum regularly (but dont take part as i know nothing about data) i find it hard to read posts criticizing and writing off forecasts for no reason.
seems some people want to just slate forecasters rather than add anymore weight to the argument but i do agree on the uncertainty the same as everything in life.:D
edit sorry for the off topic chat thats my two cents worth back to the land of the lurking.

Elmer Blooker

rc28 wrote: »

+1

I cannot remember the last time we have had a proper spell of dry weather (Spring 2012??). This week should really help the land dry up a bit and hopefully there will be some good sunshine to make up for the months of cloudy wet gloom.

yes, last March was the last dry spell, I've even seen good land in the southeast flooded for the first time in my life.

mike65

This cold isn't going to be anything greater than chilly spells we've already had and it does look like with HP so close it'll be fairly quiet and dry (lovely dry!) possibly sunny as well (please) so not a chance of snow. I can live with that.

pistolpetes11

mike65 wrote: »

This cold isn't going to be anything greater than chilly spells we've already had and it does look like with HP so close it'll be fairly quiet and dry (lovely dry!) possibly sunny as well (please) so not a chance of snow. I can live with that.

A week out and thats it then is it ?

Shows over nothing to see here

Mr Bumble

dacogawa wrote: »

Hi Guys, if you want to compare forecasters that's fine but would you mind starting a new thread about it please, in there you can have these who's right, who's wrong discussion exclusively. This is the ramping thread & every 2nd post now seems to be about the other topic. Thanks P.S. MT rules

Anyway, in my opinion the difference between this cold spell that could be happening next week & the ones that didn't over the last few months is that the models are in agreement now, probably for the first time all winter

This little debate is not about the relative merits of different forecasters but about the reaction to them and the case in question is about an 80% RAMP for snow during the last cold outbreak. So we're discussing a ramp in a ramping thread which seems appropriate. I think it is reasonable to expand that discussion a tad without straying too much from the specific topic and if it's inappropriate, the mods can whip out their delete hat and nobody will be too upset....it's only words after all and opinions.

Anyway II.....to fully conform to the ramping requirement, I agree with your 'anyway' and reckon we'll be up to our knees in it on Friday morning next week.....or at least Cork, Waterford, Kilkenny, Carlow, Wexford and South Wicklow will be up to their knees in it....

H2UMrsRobinson

So from what I gather, the best time for my annual summer barbecue is going to be next week yes?

derekon

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

So from what I gather, the best time for my annual summer barbecue is going to be next week yes?

I think you might be onto something here God, wouldn't it be awful if we got blocking over Greenland during April instead of late Feb/early March........................sometimes you cannot win with the weather on this island !!

D

Harry Deerpark

derekon wrote: »

I think you might be onto something here God, wouldn't it be awful if we got blocking over Greenland during April instead of late Feb/early March........................sometimes you cannot win with the weather on this island !!

D

What would happen if we got a blocking over Greenland in April?

corksurfer2005

Harry Deerpark wrote: »

What would happen if we got a blocking over Greenland in April?

Rain.....

ZX7R

corksurfer2005 wrote: »

Rain.....

Lot's of Rain.....

kingshankly

Harry Deerpark wrote: »

What would happen if we got a blocking over Greenland in April?

Mr muscle unblocker would sort that out

Harry Deerpark

kingshankly wrote: »

Mr muscle unblocker would sort that out

Is that some sort of laxative for bodybuilders?

derekon

Harry Deerpark wrote: »

What would happen if we got a blocking over Greenland in April?

I presume (and this is based on my limited knowledge) that the Atlantic would be blocked and we would get an easterly off the continent. However such an easterly would not be cold enough for snow or warm enough for warm weather. I suppose what I am saying in layman's terms is that a Greenie High in April would be such a waste, considering its potential to deliver snow in Ireland during Dec/Jan and Feb.

D

Duggys Housemate

derekon wrote: »

I presume (and this is based on my limited knowledge) that the Atlantic would be blocked and we would get an easterly off the continent. However such an easterly would not be cold enough for snow or warm enough for warm weather. I suppose what I am saying in layman's terms is that a Greenie High in April would be such a waste, considering its potential to deliver snow in Ireland during Dec/Jan and Feb.

D

The light from an easterly is often brighter. Also it could bring warm weather.

More easterly all year would make Ireland a better place, weather wise. A moderated continental climate.

Elmer Blooker

If anywhere sees snow this week (a very big IF ) I think it will be our friends in Waterford and Cork.
It's looking dry and settled up to +120 but who knows after that? Those isobars might just tighten up on the southern flank of the high.
Interesting times ahead- we're not looking at a two or three day easterly and it can only come progressively colder from the east.
Whatever happens, a spell of sunny, dry weather with hard frosts by night is more than welcome.

Timmyboy

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

yes, last March was the last dry spell, I've even seen good land in the southeast flooded for the first time in my life.

Didnt' we have a really great week last September/October sometime? I remember being out cycling in the sunshine down in Killarney at that time. It was just a week but it was dry.

Also, April and May were not that bad. I remember cutting timber with a man from Austria.
From then on, it was generally very very very bad, aside from that week in September or October.

lucernarian

martyo wrote: »

it was not to long ago here when people did get slaughterd here and a lot of very insightful posters left as someone who reads this forum regularly (but dont take part as i know nothing about data) i find it hard to read posts criticizing and writing off forecasts for no reason.
seems some people want to just slate forecasters rather than add anymore weight to the argument but i do agree on the uncertainty the same as everything in life.:D
edit sorry for the off topic chat thats my two cents worth back to the land of the lurking.

Indeed.

There's a big difference between making criticisms of a forecast based on what actually happened (the joys of hindsight) and simply criticising a forecast before it has been put to the test.

Having said that...

I have seen some people throw up a chart and suggest, with no scientific or logical reasoning whatsoever, that this chart is literally the form horse and the one to back. At times, what's called the "ramping" comments or threads boils down to little more than the kind of chat you'd see in the bookies. If people are going to make a particular specific prediction, they can and should be able to defend why they make that prediction.

I agree, the mods can make the calls on what's relevant for a given thread.

Min

Timmyboy wrote: »

Didnt' we have a really great week last September/October sometime? I remember being out cycling in the sunshine down in Killarney at that time. It was just a week but it was dry.

Also, April and May were not that bad. I remember cutting timber with a man from Austria.
From then on, it was generally very very very bad, aside from that week in September or October.

The top three driest months were March, February and September.

Rebelbrowser

Have to say given how the 12z ecm looks (-8s for many in second half of this week) the radio silence here is unusual. Many could get a pleasant surprise by the weekend....and yes I know the models would need to change a bit - but they always seem to change even within 100 hrs this winter.

H2UMrsRobinson

Yes we do seem to be forgetting that this is not exactly set in stone just because the models say it will be so. Wheres the positivity gone. It could still quite easily downgrade to the wet overcast drizzly muck we are all so used to seeing this winter.

Rougies

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Have to say given how the 12z ecm looks (-8s for many in second half of this week) the radio silence here is unusual. Many could get a pleasant surprise by the weekend....and yes I know the models would need to change a bit - but they always seem to change even within 100 hrs this winter.

There's simply not much to talk about really. -8s are good to see but that's just one ingredient in the snow cake mix.

It's very much a wait and see situation.

dopolahpec

It all looks very benign now for the coming week. Yes it will be cold, but doesn't look like snow to me. Ah well, it was worth an oul ramp.

Very good drying conditions today, the place needs it badly.

Who wants to start a winter 2013/14 thread?