##RAMPING THREAD##

whitebriar

There is as it stands a small chance of flurries or a light snow shower on Wicklow, wexford and Waterford and possibly cork coasts exposed to the wind later in the week.
The further south along exposed coasts the better.
I've seen light snow flurries here before with -8 uppers and air pressure even near 1030.

ninebeanrows

Did i ever you tell you how highly i think of the NOGAPS model?

ninebeanrows

This spell is still looking very interesting and probably going to the coldest 4 or 5 days of the winter, having a chart like this at 90hrs cannot be sniffed at.

Although the NOGAPS run is unlikely it isn't millions of miles away and would give nice convective snow showers for east and south.

GFS out to 90hrs and much the same to the 0z.

Redsunset

I think people should be making preparations. It will feel extremely bitter compared to what we've been experiencing of late. Check the antifreeze on vehicles as frost could get severe. Would not take much change for this to turn into a snowfest for some.

Duggys Housemate

Tis the Ramping thread, I suppose :-)

Redsunset

Yes we shall RAMP RAMP RAMP RAMP RAMP to our hearts content.

Speak Now

Let us ramp a dry spell for the rest of the month

Rebelbrowser

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Let us ramp a dry spell for the rest of the month

Ive a sneaky feeling Jerry that the good burghers of Waterford (and hopefully some of your neighbours) might get a pleasant surprise this week.....

Speak Now

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Ive a sneaky feeling Jerry that the good burghers of Waterford (and hopefully some of your neighbours) might get a pleasant surprise this week.....

Larbre34

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Ive a sneaky feeling Jerry that the good burghers of Waterford (and hopefully some of your neighbours) might get a pleasant surprise this week.....

Agree with this, a few things are coming into line for flurries in the coastal South and South East with sea temps and as the land cools off between today and Friday. Stiff enough E/SE gradient likely.

I'm sticking with my NIMBY feeling from 2 days ago that Dublin wont get much below 6C next weekend but local conditions in the extreme south could be surprising

Mid West will see night frosts like they haven't seen for 2 years at least.

aurora 527

Redsunset wrote: »

I think people should be making preparations. It will feel extremely bitter compared to what we've been experiencing of late. Check the antifreeze on vehicles as frost could get severe. Would not take much change for this to turn into a snowfest for some.

New tyres and wiper blades on car this morning in anticipation of the coming snow flurries!!!
Should point out however they were being replaced today anyway.;)

Duggys Housemate

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Let us ramp a dry spell for the rest of the month

Its going to be so dry people should dig wells now, and stock up on bottled water, and beer.

Speak Now

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Ive a sneaky feeling Jerry that the good burghers of Waterford (and hopefully some of your neighbours) might get a pleasant surprise this week.....

This high may eventually bring some nice early spring weather to start March. Looking like very little precip even if we do get a few flurries this week.

Looking forward to getting that first cut of grass done :cool:

Rebelbrowser

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Looking forward to getting that first cut of grass done :cool:

God you are rank amateur at this snow bunny stuff! I cut my garden a few weeks ago so it would be nice and short in time for any Feb snow (as any self respecting snow ramper would) - nothing ruins a snow picture more than having blades of grass visibly popping up through the otherwise perfect snow cover.....

Speak Now

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

God you are rank amateur at this snow bunny stuff! I cut my garden a few weeks ago so it would be nice and short in time for any Feb snow (as any self respecting snow ramper would) - nothing ruins a snow picture more than having blades of grass visibly popping up through the otherwise perfect snow cover.....

Thinly veiled "I have great drainage in my garden" post :P

My garden is too wet to get the mower out :mad: :mad:

Gonzo

looks like we could be in for a week or 2 (hopefully more) of dry calm conditions. Snow looks very unlikely for most of us and at this stage I dont care if we get it or not.

This winter has us worn out/flooded out and a few weeks of sunshine and dryness sounds like the best sort of weather to suit most people right now.

At this stage the snow can wait till next winter, surely next winter cant have the same level of annoyance at this one, far too many toys thrown around over past 3 months and understandably so.

Irish Steve

Nuala has just uttered the words "snow flurries" on the 1320 forecast, relating to later today

Also "Possibility of a few snow flurries on Friday and Saturday also."

Make of that what you will. Looks like another nowcast week.

Oh the joys of ramps, the steeper it is, the harder the train hits the buffers if anything goes wrong with things. :mad:

Nabber

Weathercheck wrote: »

Did i ever you tell you how highly i think of the NOGAPS model?

UKMO not far off either.



No snow would be fine, because it is looking like it will be dry and bright for a few days.

Youneckfreak

Is there flurries for south at the end of the week? Surly we will get some bit of snow wih this cold no?

Nabber

Nothing is certain. It's the nature of beast. East brings cold dry air, west brings warm air with plenty of precip.

enjoy the sunshine. First day of the year for me were the jacket wasn't needed. Long may it last.

Speak Now

Youneckfreak wrote: »

Is there flurries for south at the end of the week? Surly we will get some bit of snow wih this cold no?

Esk1m0

Redsunset wrote: »

Yes we shall RAMP RAMP RAMP RAMP RAMP to our hearts content.

Totally agree!

Its better to have Ramped and lost, than never to have Ramped at all!:D

Rebelbrowser

On the 12z GFS Saturday looks seriously cold, -8's over nearly the entire country. WC or someone would know better but looks like the temp differential would be enough for streamers - maybe there's just not enough wind however.....

whitebriar

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

On the 12z GFS Saturday looks seriously cold, -8's over nearly the entire country. WC or someone would know better but looks like the temp differential would be enough for streamers - maybe there's just not enough wind however.....

It's possible,very light though.This time anywhere from Dublin down to east cork.I wouldn't be confident of streamers,just rogue light showers hugging that coastline.The airmass entirely throughout the drop zone from cloud top to ground being favourable for snow by then.
That said Saturday is a long way off,we could have a southerly component yet to the flow which whilst it would be a mix of returning continental air,it would have lost its oooomph.
There's also hints of shortwaves appearing that while they my not affect us directly,if they appear,there will be big changes.
So much unknown past 96hrs really.

dacogawa

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

On the 12z GFS Saturday looks seriously cold, -8's over nearly the entire country. WC or someone would know better but looks like the temp differential would be enough for streamers - maybe there's just not enough wind however.....

It looks like very light NE wind, hopefully it'll pic up, we'll see what WC has to say...

http://chart-c.metcentral.com/gfs/2013021800/750/1-1361620800-4.gif

DOCARCH

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

On the 12z GFS Saturday looks seriously cold, -8's over nearly the entire country. WC or someone would know better but looks like the temp differential would be enough for streamers - maybe there's just not enough wind however.....

One thing to bear in mind is that the surface temp of the Irish Sea, now, at this time of the year, is about/nearly 5c colder than it is in late November/early December so streamers (2010 style) are far less likely.

M.T. Cranium

I think there's some chance for localized 3-5 cm amounts east and south coast in the pattern indicated at present (Saturday-Sunday), not quite enough of a gradient to get too excited yet. Parts of southeast England could get buried however.

whitebriar

DOCARCH wrote: »

One thing to bear in mind is that the surface temp of the Irish Sea, now, at this time of the year, is about/nearly 5c colder than it is in late November/early December so streamers (2010 style) are far less likely.

Agreed,but some light convection is inevitable.

Anyhow Mt/Roger Smith has spoken on Nw just now regarding the Uk.
Remember central wales is just east of Wicklow


Posted 4 minutes ago
This looks capable of producing a more severe depth of cold than in much of the discussion so far, drawing on -7 to -10 C temps that are likely to develop over the near continent after cold advection and widespread snow streamers from the Baltic across northern Germany, Holland, and mesoscale snowfall further south into northeast France. With that deep cold coming into contact with the North Sea at 6-8 C you could reasonably expect localized 20-30 cm snowfalls in southeast England and with the right wind direction some 5-15 cm amounts in the south coast regions. Also with that snow on the ground by Friday-Saturday there will be more feedback to temperatures and that could produce real as opposed to nearly realized "ice days" in parts of south-central England. Eventually there could be readings as low as -10 C with this spell over fresh snow cover where skies clear later. Persistence of near -10 C uppers in southern England for 3-4 days is fairly rare at any stage of winter and on the historical charts you only see the -10 C contour over the UK on occasions that produce record cold temperatures (which are still in the vicinity of days near -2 and nights near -8 at this later stage of winter).

At the same time, it will stay rather mild in northern Scotland and they could actually see some above normal temperatures in sunshine too, at times when the south is in the deep freeze.

Further north the chances for heavy snow seem diminished but would expect a patchy covering by Saturday night in most regions south of a line from south Yorks to central Wales. One or two bands of moderate snow could develop north of London in response to troughing that rotates around the Med low. Anyway, one NW member who is bound to see heavy snow is probably Nick Sussex, the weather looks positively glacial for the south of France from Thursday to about Monday or so. One theme that is almost absent from model runs (except maybe the lightly regarded WMC Moscow) is a significant undercutting low to keep heights up and push the boundaries north. The longer this block stays around, the greater the chances for that to occur sooner or later but I would think more likely in the period 3-8 March when the second phase of this cold spell comes into perhaps a battleground scenario against a returning Atlantic.

I am liking the gradual upgrade trend on this cold spell and feel that it will be major not "in the background" and also may reload from the north before fading out of the picture around 10 March, in fact it may be swept away at that point, possibly after a breakdown snowfall event, by a return to southwesterly flow as I expect the bulk of the cold blocking pattern to reposition over northern Canada and west Greenland by then.

Nabber

If people wont ramp snow, at least ramp the amount of washing that has been dried :-)

aboyro

As soon as it starts snowing in waterford, i'm gonna ramp the sh1t outa this:D

**agreed got 2 lines of washing dry today