##RAMPING THREAD##

thomasj

Very Light snow shower at the airport at the moment

icesnowfrost

Nice one

Trogdor

Seems to be something brewing in the Irish sea!

arctictree

0.8c here. Very light snow grains blowing around in the wind.

Just looked at the latest radar. Are they streamers forming in the Irish sea?

john why

light snow in D15:-) :-)

Iancar29

SNIZZLE here now... As thought

Deank

Jaysus, this weekend bodes too much excitement, there's a chance of snow and the safe may be opened:eek::D

icesnowfrost

Hats off to M T he called this cold spell way back on November early December. He said mid to late feb for the cold spell. He might not be 100% but close enough

JMSE

the precip radar on met.ie has three inbound contacts coming in over the irish sea, over the isle of man and on twds dublin, more further south heading for wicklow, could be the russians

dacogawa

JMSE wrote: »

the precip radar on met.ie has three inbound contacts coming in over the irish sea, over the isle of man and on twds dublin, more further south heading for wicklow, could be the russians

Been watching them for the last 2 hours, they seem to be losing intensity on raintoday

It's very strange, it's getting bigger on the met.ie radar but getting smaller on the raintoday, come on the met!

Weathering

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Hats off to M T he called this cold spell way back on November early December. He said mid to late feb for the cold spell. He might not be 100% but close enough

I don't know what planet your living on. Its a bit of frost in winter. To give a month time frame in winter for possible cold weather then applaude them for frosty weather is absurd. He predicted severe snowy conditions earlier in the month which didn't materialise were are his plaudits for that if a bit of frost gets so much respect.

Deank

Weathering wrote: »

I don't know what planet your living on. Its a bit of frost in winter. To give a month time frame in winter for possible cold weather then applaude them for frosty weather is absurd. He predicted severe snowy conditions earlier in the month which didn't materialise were are his plaudits for that if a bit of frost gets so much respect.

I'd really like you to pull that quote, from what I can remember he said we'd be in the freezer for an extended spell from early Feb until early March but couldn't confirn the exact time line and at the time he was only 60% sure of this, IMO his predictions have been marginal like the Irish weather.

Hats off to MT...

sunbabe08

snow is coming snow is coming!!!!! and reports by 2 people who said they saw a couple of flurries today in cork:eek:

rainbowdash

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Hats off to M T he called this cold spell way back on November early December. He said mid to late feb for the cold spell. He might not be 100% but close enough

What cold spell?

Its a bit cold but nothing major. No lakes frozen over, no shortage of grit, no water restrictions due to burst pipes, no airport chaos, no schools shut.

Its entirely predictable that there will be a bit of a cold spell in lat Feb.

When I see lads going across lakes on motorbikes I will tip my cap.

TheMilkyPirate

Met eireann showed snow for the east coast tomorrow and sunday on the 9 news.

compsys

rainbowdash wrote: »

What cold spell?

Its a bit cold but nothing major. No lakes frozen over, no shortage of grit, no water restrictions due to burst pipes, no airport chaos, no schools shut.

Its entirely predictable that there will be a bit of a cold spell in lat Feb.

When I see lads going across lakes on motorbikes I will tip my cap.

Exactly. This is NOT the extended deep freeze cold spell that MT was forecasting. Anyone can forecast a bit of cold for February.

dacogawa

rainbowdash wrote: »

When I see lads going across lakes on motorbikes I will tip my cap.

It doesn't need to be cold for that

Speak Now

Could have been epic if the high had been a bit further north :rolleyes:

Weathering

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Could have been epic if the high had been a bit further north :rolleyes:

True. And the opposite if it had of been further south

TheMilkyPirate

MT uses a model that is still in the best of my knowledge in development. He predicted a cold spell for late february and here it is.

Not much of a cold spell you might say, But if that high had been 400 miles further north we would have been in the proverbial freezer. Hs research still predicted a cold spell that materialised we just happened to be a few hundred miles away from the party. I think something similar happened last year where he predicted a cold spell and we just missed out while east UK and europe got plastered.

I'm not great at explaining myself but my point is that MTs research model obviously works and will hopefully get better over the coming years.

If people on here stopped treating him as some sort of demi-god (which borders on the ridiculous at times) and just started appreciating him as another one of our knowledgeable posters you all might not be so let down all the time.

rainbowdash

baraca wrote: »

MT uses a model that is still in the best of my knowledge in development. He predicted a cold spell for late february and here it is.

Not much of a cold spell you might say, But if that high had been 400 miles further north we would have been in the proverbial freezer. Hs research still predicted a cold spell that materialised we just happened to be a few hundred miles away from the party. I think something similar happened last year where he predicted a cold spell and we just missed out while east UK and europe got plastered.

I'm not great at explaining myself but my point is that MTs research model obviously works and will hopefully get better over the coming years.

If people on here stopped treating him as some sort of demi-god (which borders on the ridiculous at times) and just started appreciating him as another one of our knowledgeable posters you all might not be so let down all the time.

And if my aunt had balls she would be my uncle.

corksurfer2005

baraca wrote: »

MT uses a model that is still in the best of my knowledge in development. He predicted a cold spell for late february and here it is.

Not much of a cold spell you might say, But if that high had been 400 miles further north we would have been in the proverbial freezer. Hs research still predicted a cold spell that materialised we just happened to be a few hundred miles away from the party. I think something similar happened last year where he predicted a cold spell and we just missed out while east UK and europe got plastered.

I'm not great at explaining myself but my point is that MTs research model obviously works and will hopefully get better over the coming years.

If people on here stopped treating him as some sort of demi-god (which borders on the ridiculous at times) and just started appreciating him as another one of our knowledgeable posters you all might not be so let down all the time.

Irony overload :pac:

TheMilkyPirate

rainbowdash wrote: »

And if my aunt had balls she would be my uncle.

You completely missed the point of my post, His research picks up on these things it just needs some fine tuning.

compsys

Snowing in London. Again. Lol. *sigh*

Weathering

baraca wrote: »

MT uses a model that is still in the best of my knowledge in development. He predicted a cold spell for late february and here it is.

Not much of a cold spell you might say, But if that high had been 400 miles further north we would have been in the proverbial freezer. Hs research still predicted a cold spell that materialised we just happened to be a few hundred miles away from the party. I think something similar happened last year where he predicted a cold spell and we just missed out while east UK and europe got plastered.

I'm not great at explaining myself but my point is that MTs research model obviously works and will hopefully get better over the coming years.

If people on here stopped treating him as some sort of demi-god (which borders on the ridiculous at times) and just started appreciating him as another one of our knowledgeable posters you all might not be so let down all the time.

Yeah you're right people shouldn't treat him like a demi-god.

How does his research exactly work if he got it wrong two years in a row?

You say if the the HP had of been 400 miles further north we'd be in the freezer. That's pointless,we'd be in mild s.w flow if the opposite were true.

He didn't pinpoint a cold spell for late feb,he said a cold spell could develop from feb to march which is why I stated why are people giving him plaudits for a bit of frost in winter. Hell anyone could give 1/3 of a timeframe of winter and say it could get cold. He got it wrong earlier in the month

I like m.t and I know its only research on his behalf but people applauding him for no reason all the time annoys me

Rebelbrowser

baraca wrote: »

MT uses a model that is still in the best of my knowledge in development. He predicted a cold spell for late february and here it is.

Not much of a cold spell you might say, But if that high had been 400 miles further north we would have been in the proverbial freezer. Hs research still predicted a cold spell that materialised we just happened to be a few hundred miles away from the party. I think something similar happened last year where he predicted a cold spell and we just missed out while east UK and europe got plastered.

I'm not great at explaining myself but my point is that MTs research model obviously works and will hopefully get better over the coming years.

If people on here stopped treating him as some sort of demi-god (which borders on the ridiculous at times) and just started appreciating him as another one of our knowledgeable posters you all might not be so let down all the time.

Still and all when you think of what we pay him we deserve better.

TheMilkyPirate

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Still and all when you think of what we pay him we deserve better.

:pac:

M.T. Cranium

Hey, does this demi-god status come with any sort of benefits? I tried to use it here as an excuse to get out of doing the dishes but that didn't work.

Reality check -- the forecast for a cold February has verified at a sort of B- or C+ level (in my mind anyway) and as usual it has done a bit better in Britain than in Ireland, but the problematic part was not so much this cold spell but the weak nature of the mid-month cold signal, I think we're probably dealing with a more resilient Atlantic signal in these marginal cases and perhaps this is in fact the result of "climate change" or whatever. I am still generally positive in my outlook about the research because it seems to be hovering around the target much of the time and since I've been doing this so long I have become used to incremental rather than major improvements, but it does seem like some improvement is being generated.

The part of the forecast that suggested cold lingering into early March looks to be on track, once again, day to day details are always going to obscure the general trend until we get into verification using the monthly scale data (I certainly am trying to refine the method to more of a weekly than monthly scale, but day to day variation remains probably beyond the capability of any statistical method).

So maybe we could move forward and avoid or declare irrelevant these discussions about "reputation" because I'm not seeking a reputation, the whole point of my work and also being here on an Irish forum is to expand my understanding of weather in the region for research purporses, and that has (to my mind) paid large dividends already. I'm at a rather advanced age with the attendant health uncertainties so my focus is more on getting as much done as possible and trying to reach a point where a model is working at a predictable level of accuracy and can be handed off to other, younger (presumably) enthusiasts. It's the same dynamic on net-weather (probably without the demi-god allegations) and I tend to get the same reactions to the forecasts, but I'm reality-grounded and I know if a forecast is going well or badly, this particular one has stumbled along in a grey area between the two since a pretty good start in December. There are things to be re-assessed at the end of this and things that went well but not perfectly, which can also improve the model's future performance if assessed correctly. So that's where I'm at with it.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Hey, does this demi-god status come with any sort of benefits? I tried to use it here as an excuse to get out of doing the dishes but that didn't work.

Reality check -- the forecast for a cold February has verified at a sort of B- or C+ level (in my mind anyway) and as usual it has done a bit better in Britain than in Ireland, but the problematic part was not so much this cold spell but the weak nature of the mid-month cold signal, I think we're probably dealing with a more resilient Atlantic signal in these marginal cases and perhaps this is in fact the result of "climate change" or whatever. I am still generally positive in my outlook about the research because it seems to be hovering around the target much of the time and since I've been doing this so long I have become used to incremental rather than major improvements, but it does seem like some improvement is being generated.

The part of the forecast that suggested cold lingering into early March looks to be on track, once again, day to day details are always going to obscure the general trend until we get into verification using the monthly scale data (I certainly am trying to refine the method to more of a weekly than monthly scale, but day to day variation remains probably beyond the capability of any statistical method).

So maybe we could move forward and avoid or declare irrelevant these discussions about "reputation" because I'm not seeking a reputation, the whole point of my work and also being here on an Irish forum is to expand my understanding of weather in the region for research purporses, and that has (to my mind) paid large dividends already. I'm at a rather advanced age with the attendant health uncertainties so my focus is more on getting as much done as possible and trying to reach a point where a model is working at a predictable level of accuracy and can be handed off to other, younger (presumably) enthusiasts. It's the same dynamic on net-weather (probably without the demi-god allegations) and I tend to get the same reactions to the forecasts, but I'm reality-grounded and I know if a forecast is going well or badly, this particular one has stumbled along in a grey area between the two since a pretty good start in December. There are things to be re-assessed at the end of this and things that went well but not perfectly, which can also improve the model's future performance if assessed correctly. So that's where I'm at with it.

Thanks for the post MT, i can imagine you shouting at the screen

You have been right more often than not but the problem is that people want the extreme, if only it would happen !!

I for one am a fan of your research model and to be fair you could make moneys from it :pac:

Keep it up my friend

Rebelbrowser

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Hey, does this demi-god status come with any sort of benefits? I tried to use it here as an excuse to get out of doing the dishes but that didn't work.

Reality check -- the forecast for a cold February has verified at a sort of B- or C+ level (in my mind anyway) and as usual it has done a bit better in Britain than in Ireland, but the problematic part was not so much this cold spell but the weak nature of the mid-month cold signal, I think we're probably dealing with a more resilient Atlantic signal in these marginal cases and perhaps this is in fact the result of "climate change" or whatever. I am still generally positive in my outlook about the research because it seems to be hovering around the target much of the time and since I've been doing this so long I have become used to incremental rather than major improvements, but it does seem like some improvement is being generated.

The part of the forecast that suggested cold lingering into early March looks to be on track, once again, day to day details are always going to obscure the general trend until we get into verification using the monthly scale data (I certainly am trying to refine the method to more of a weekly than monthly scale, but day to day variation remains probably beyond the capability of any statistical method).

So maybe we could move forward and avoid or declare irrelevant these discussions about "reputation" because I'm not seeking a reputation, the whole point of my work and also being here on an Irish forum is to expand my understanding of weather in the region for research purporses, and that has (to my mind) paid large dividends already. I'm at a rather advanced age with the attendant health uncertainties so my focus is more on getting as much done as possible and trying to reach a point where a model is working at a predictable level of accuracy and can be handed off to other, younger (presumably) enthusiasts. It's the same dynamic on net-weather (probably without the demi-god allegations) and I tend to get the same reactions to the forecasts, but I'm reality-grounded and I know if a forecast is going well or badly, this particular one has stumbled along in a grey area between the two since a pretty good start in December. There are things to be re-assessed at the end of this and things that went well but not perfectly, which can also improve the model's future performance if assessed correctly. So that's where I'm at with it.

In the 3 or 4 years I have been following you youve always managed to predict the coldest part of winter in nw Europe. Thats a result in itself. You are definitely on to something so please keep up the hard work. many of us hugely appreciate the effort you put in.