##RAMPING THREAD##

aurora 527

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

many of us hugely appreciate the effort you put in.

+1:)

dacogawa

+1 on what T|nt|n said & thanks M.T. as always for your hard work & input.

Let's just remember no one is claiming demi-god status, we are lucky to have a very experienced & educated member of this community who gives his time (for free) to help us on our weathering way, in the last year we have lost some very good members of this weather forum, people who were helping & teaching others for no gain to themselves and we all lose out cause of that.

If M.T.'s research model was slightly off this year, things happen (as he talked about climate change) it certainly wasn't off in the run up to Dec 2010, I suggest instead of coming on here complaining about it not why learn about the models & use the resources around this forum to develop your own weather skills

Now can we also remember that this is a RAMPING THREAD, as I pointed out a few days ago, it's not very hard to start a new thread to compare weather forecasts, it might actually be an interesting read & something we can all learn from but but all these 1 line "well it didn't snow" is not doing any good & is off topic

Also I think lots of this is cause some people are strung out & need their fix of snowcane

icesnowfrost

Read the last bit

kenmc

not even a frost in d14

icesnowfrost

Tiny bits of groupl in drogheda

vickers209

Irish sea seem to be kicking up a lot of streamers and they making it over land but don't think much is falling from them:mad:

Speak Now

Few snow grains here in Waterford, that should be it now with the precip until next week

average_runner

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Hey, does this demi-god status come with any sort of benefits? I tried to use it here as an excuse to get out of doing the dishes but that didn't work.

Reality check -- the forecast for a cold February has verified at a sort of B- or C+ level (in my mind anyway) and as usual it has done a bit better in Britain than in Ireland, but the problematic part was not so much this cold spell but the weak nature of the mid-month cold signal, I think we're probably dealing with a more resilient Atlantic signal in these marginal cases and perhaps this is in fact the result of "climate change" or whatever. I am still generally positive in my outlook about the research because it seems to be hovering around the target much of the time and since I've been doing this so long I have become used to incremental rather than major improvements, but it does seem like some improvement is being generated.

The part of the forecast that suggested cold lingering into early March looks to be on track, once again, day to day details are always going to obscure the general trend until we get into verification using the monthly scale data (I certainly am trying to refine the method to more of a weekly than monthly scale, but day to day variation remains probably beyond the capability of any statistical method).

So maybe we could move forward and avoid or declare irrelevant these discussions about "reputation" because I'm not seeking a reputation, the whole point of my work and also being here on an Irish forum is to expand my understanding of weather in the region for research purporses, and that has (to my mind) paid large dividends already. I'm at a rather advanced age with the attendant health uncertainties so my focus is more on getting as much done as possible and trying to reach a point where a model is working at a predictable level of accuracy and can be handed off to other, younger (presumably) enthusiasts. It's the same dynamic on net-weather (probably without the demi-god allegations) and I tend to get the same reactions to the forecasts, but I'm reality-grounded and I know if a forecast is going well or badly, this particular one has stumbled along in a grey area between the two since a pretty good start in December. There are things to be re-assessed at the end of this and things that went well but not perfectly, which can also improve the model's future performance if assessed correctly. So that's where I'm at with it.

If you could tell the weather for exactly 100%, you be a very rich man

Slashermcguirk

Light snow flurry around malahide

BabysCoffee

Light sleet for about 5 secs in D6

fontenoy7

BabysCoffee wrote: »

Light sleet for about 5 secs in D6

Very light snow in Dublin 15...

Daniel2590

Very very light snow in D18, literally just a few grains every now and then.

barney 20v

Rammmpppp????

pcasso

Very light flurries in Dublin 3.
Nothing to get excited about.

Also, a ramp taken from Met Eireann site


From Sunday night to Wednesday night of next week it will be generally dry throughout the country, with light breezes much of the time but temperatures will remain several degrees below normal for the time of year. The early part of this period is likely to see large amounts of cloud persisting. This will have the effect of limiting the severity of night frosts. However, there are prospects that cloud will break during the middle of the week and severe night frosts will then be the rule. Through Thursday, largely dry and locally bright conditions will continue with daytime temperatures improving slightly, although widespread frost will return at night. During Friday, the trend will be for a band of mostly light rain to spread southwards across the country after a bright start. There are indications that next weekend will see abnormally cold conditions returning as northerly winds set in, bringing wintry showers and perhaps some snowfall.

icesnowfrost

Light snow on drogheda

Not

Daniel2590 wrote: »

Very very light snow in D18, literally just a few grains every now and then.

/rampon

I remember a day in the 80's that started just like this. By afternoon it was falling faster than I could shovel it ! I see the showers in the Irish Sea beginning to beef up...

/rampoff

Torque.ie

Light snizzle here, dry and sticking

kenmc

dandruff falling sporadically from passing pigeons here in d14. temps 2.8, dp -3

Pangea

All aboard for the MET EIREANN RAMP

There are indications that next weekend will see abnormally cold conditions returning as northerly winds set in, bringing wintry showers and perhaps some snowfall.

Larbre34

Really?? Gowannn the Met!

whitebriar

Not wrote: »

/rampon

I remember a day in the 80's that started just like this. By afternoon it was falling faster than I could shovel it ! I see the showers in the Irish Sea beginning to beef up...

/rampoff

Indeed,I remember a morning like this in livigno..flurries am,blizzard pm lifts closed,cleared paths a foot deep by midnight.. that's not going to happen either

Ongoing flurries in Arklow.
Remember radar over estimates precip when its snow.
So what's in the Irish sea is very very light so far.

Red Pepper

There is no frost this morning but would there be icy conditions on higher ground (>700m) or even snow during the last few cold days?

Harry Deerpark

Why is this high pressure bringing so much cloud? High pressures usually bring lots of sunshine in the winter because there's no heat to evaporate the moisture. This is like one of those half-assed summertime high pressures.

dacogawa

whitebriar wrote: »

Remember radar over estimates precip when its snow.
So what's in the Irish sea is very very light so far.

Agreed about the radar, the Met.ie especially but it does look a bit heavier on the raintoday.co.uk one after saying that I'm sure it'll breakdown now...

Redsunset

I actually think the Met Éireann radar has precip intensity nailed. Shows mostly 0.1 - 0.25 mm/hr. That's very very light and blowing in the wind stuff. Shows very few areas out over Irish sea > 1.0

dacogawa

Redsunset wrote: »

I actually think the Met Éireann radar has precip intensity nailed. Shows mostly 0.1 - 0.25 mm/hr. That's very very light and blowing in the wind stuff. Shows very few areas out over Irish sea > 1.0

Thanks Redsunset, that's good to know. Just the last few times I used it it said there was percip right on top of me & there wasn't anything ?!? while raintoday had it breaking up just before me, maybe it was just teasing me

red_bairn

Redsunset wrote: »

I actually think the Met Éireann radar has precip intensity nailed. Shows mostly 0.1 - 0.25 mm/hr. That's very very light and blowing in the wind stuff. Shows very few areas out over Irish sea > 1.0

I think they even made their chart for mm/hr even more specific. More colours (numbers) were added recently.

amadangomor

Red Pepper wrote: »

There is no frost this morning but would there be icy conditions on higher ground (>700m) or even snow during the last few cold days?

700 feet you mean?700 metres is a very high mountain in Ireland

whitebriar

dacogawa wrote: »

Thanks Redsunset, that's good to know. Just the last few times I used it it said there was percip right on top of me & there wasn't anything ?!? while raintoday had it breaking up just before me, maybe it was just teasing me

That's what I meant by my last post.
Radar in snow can record stuff that doesn't reach the ground.


Anyhow very light flurries here on and off.

3/-2.5

Elmer Blooker

+1 here which is two degrees colder than the famous ice hotel in Swedish Lapland they have a little bit more snow than us though.
Milder Atlantic air toppling over our high being the obvious reason.

http://www.webbkameror.se/webbkameror/icehotel/index.php