##RAMPING THREAD##

Deank

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Wouldn't say that! I took this photo in County Wexford on April 1st 2010. Interesting things can still happen, even if it's not 2 weeks without thaw.

You might want to re size that pic.

BEASTERLY

Deank wrote: »

You might want to re size that pic.

Yea, haha. Done

Harry Deerpark

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Yea, haha. Done

Doesn't look resized and it's still 1.67 MB

icesnowfrost

It's after been raining in Drogheda but its like minus 3 so how could it rain

jon burrows

Youneckfreak wrote: »

All over for another year. See ye in November

There will be another thread in July/August called, wait for it.... "Winter 2013/2014"

Speak Now

jon burrows wrote: »

There will be another thread in July/August called, wait for it.... "Winter 2013/2014"

Early than that going by the Summer 2013 thread started in the first week of winter :pac:

Min

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Wouldn't say that! I took this photo in County Wexford on April 1st 2010. Interesting things can still happen, even if it's not 2 weeks without thaw.

That was from the blizzard at the end of March, I presume, that was a proper blizzard with some fine drifts and it had proper whiteout conditions with snow blowing everywhere. twas a very nasty piece of weather where one would rather be in out of.
I think it came with a red warning from the UK met for parts of N Ireland where over 40cms of snow was forecast, the snow in Cavan was epic from the pictures with reports of some farm buildings collapsing under the weight of snow.

Weathering

I persume the northerly is no more then. I never bothered checking the charts. Well thank god that winter is over. What a waste of time i've learned that the models are absolutely sh1t and that is that and so are the fc's. I'm just going to look out my window any more. Good bye folks. P.s don't get sucked in to anything past 1day it's all a pile of sh1t

Red Pepper

Weathering wrote: »

I persume the northerly is no more then. I never bothered checking the charts. Well thank god that winter is over. What a waste of time i've learned that the models are absolutely sh1t and that is that and so are the fc's. I'm just going to look out my window any more. Good bye folks. P.s don't get sucked in to anything past 1day it's all a pile of sh1t

Ramp of the year?

compsys

Weathering wrote: »

I persume the northerly is no more then. I never bothered checking the charts. Well thank god that winter is over. What a waste of time i've learned that the models are absolutely sh1t and that is that and so are the fc's. I'm just going to look out my window any more. Good bye folks. P.s don't get sucked in to anything past 1day it's all a pile of sh1t

Someone needs to brighten up a bit and get a sense of perspective. Nobody died you know!

Anyway, the models weren't half as bad as people think. Any cold spell was always 7 to 10 days away which is an eternity in weather terms. If you looked at what the models were predicting within T 120 hours you'll find they were generally pretty accurate.

Any weather forecaster will tell you that it's almost impossible to forecast accurately past 5 or maybe 6 days. And because of the 'butterfly effect', no matter what computer science improvements there are it'll probably never be possible to accurately forecast beyond this time frame.

In short, people need to stop looking at charts 10 days away and expecting them to materialise every time.

barney 20v

Can a mod please kill this thread once and for all??

Harry Deerpark

barney 20v wrote: »

Can a mod please kill this thread once and for all??

No-one is forcing you to come here.

Villain

kill -9 winter

Weathering

compsys wrote: »

Someone needs to brighten up a bit and get a sense of perspective. Nobody died you know!

Anyway, the models weren't half as bad as people think. Any cold spell was always 7 to 10 days away which is an eternity in weather terms. If you looked at what the models were predicting within T 120 hours you'll find they were generally pretty accurate.

Any weather forecaster will tell you that it's almost impossible to forecast accurately past 5 or maybe 6 days. And because of the 'butterfly effect', no matter what computer science improvements there are it'll probably never be possible to accurately forecast beyond this time frame.

In short, people need to stop looking at charts 10 days away and expecting them to materialise every time.

The models are sh1t from a day or two ahead. The amount of times frost was fc this winter for the night ahead and it didn't materialise. I've been following weather for years and this year was a joke for accuracy. Wind gusts,rainfall totals everything was poorly fc.

I don't look at fi charts I'm talking about supposed reliable timeframes. I'm finished with traditional weather sites.

And I'm fed up of the term "marginal" the most over used word this winter. People go on and on about and say its so hard to fc and that is why this or that didn't happen. If things are so "marginal" so often then why are fc so crap at fc these situations. They should have plenty if experience at it by now. Rant over. My overall point is I'm finished with traditional fc as I find they're mostly useless

Daniel2590

Ahh I see the throwing of the toys out of the pram has begun...

Weathering

Daniel2590 wrote: »

Ahh I see the throwing of the toys out of the pram has begun...

Merely stating the facts my friend. Plus there are fck all toys left in the pram

compsys

Weathering wrote: »

The models are sh1t from a day or two ahead. The amount of times frost was fc this winter for the night ahead and it didn't materialise. I've been following weather for years and this year was a joke for accuracy. Wind gusts,rainfall totals everything was poorly fc.

I don't look at fi charts I'm talking about supposed reliable timeframes. I'm finished with traditional weather sites.

And I'm fed up of the term "marginal" the most over used word this winter. People go on and on about and say its so hard to fc and that is why this or that didn't happen. If things are so "marginal" so often then why are fc so crap at fc these situations. They should have plenty if experience at it by now. Rant over. My overall point is I'm finished with traditional fc as I find they're mostly useless

If you're finished with traditional forecasting can I ask what forecasts you intend to follow going forward?

Weathering

compsys wrote: »

If you're finished with traditional forecasting can I ask what forecasts you intend to follow going forward?

That's a good question. I'll have to look in to it. I'm sure they're lots of alternative options out there and for all I know they could be a lot worse

Min

The weather models were not too bad, if you lived in Britain they played out far more than here, but when the difference in weather is a matter of 100 to 300 miles apart it can look like the weather models were wrong a lot, when in fact they did a fairly good job on a grander scale rather than a small scale in terms of area.

The fact is Ireland was on the edge of the cold most times, with mild air very close or over us, this is what gives something that is termed marginal, and for good reason.

United road

Min wrote: »

The weather models were not too bad, if you lived in Britain they played out far more than here, but when the difference in weather is a matter of 100 to 300 miles apart it can look like the weather models were wrong a lot, when in fact they did a fairly good job on a grander scale rather than a small scale in terms of area.

The fact is Ireland was on the edge of the cold most times, with mild air very close or over us, this is what gives something that is termed marginal, and for good reason.

Sick of these kind of statements.
We were close .... Blah blah blah.
Only 100 miles away blah blah blah!
Facts are - when the fcs are put up - they call out ireland. Not 100 or 300 miles away. This might seem harsh but its facts!
So when they are wrong by 300 miles then people have a right to be frustrated and not have the same ........... But it was very close when you look at the size of europe nonsense answers!

Harps

Weathering wrote: »

The models are sh1t from a day or two ahead. The amount of times frost was fc this winter for the night ahead and it didn't materialise. I've been following weather for years and this year was a joke for accuracy. Wind gusts,rainfall totals everything was poorly fc.

I don't look at fi charts I'm talking about supposed reliable timeframes. I'm finished with traditional weather sites.

And I'm fed up of the term "marginal" the most over used word this winter. People go on and on about and say its so hard to fc and that is why this or that didn't happen. If things are so "marginal" so often then why are fc so crap at fc these situations. They should have plenty if experience at it by now. Rant over. My overall point is I'm finished with traditional fc as I find they're mostly useless

Could you give some examples of these consistently terrible forecasts? Bar one or two events the forecasts and model output haven't seemed too bad to me.. There's been nothing extreme and very little noteworthy weather forecast all winter and thats pretty much how its panned out. The met never went along with all the over the top hype that was on here all winter either

As for marginal, it can be frustrating when we always seem to be on the wrong side of it but if you've got a forecast for a battle between mild and cold air right over us then predicting the exact position is next to impossible more than a couple of days ahead. Here's a view of the area modelled by the GFS model, 100 miles either way for any of the precip would look completely insignificant on the image yet it'd make a huge difference to the weather. You can hardly call it sh!t when its basically predicting the future across the entire planet with good accuracy up to 5 days away

osheen

I have to say i quite enjoyed this winter and looking at the divergence of various models even up to 48hs .
No big snow was a let down but the reason I lurk around this forum was the model watching - so a big thanks to all the regular posters. Now lets start Ramping the clear blue skies for summer !!
Or maybe snow for paddies day
or even hail

Speak Now

Daniel2590 wrote: »

Ahh I see the throwing of the toys out of the pram has begun...

Not for the first time either.

Weathering

Harps wrote: »

Could you give some examples of these consistently terrible forecasts? Bar one or two events the forecasts and model output haven't seemed too bad to me.. There's been nothing extreme and very little noteworthy weather forecast all winter and thats pretty much how its panned out. The met never went along with all the over the top hype that was on here all winter either

As for marginal, it can be frustrating when we always seem to be on the wrong side of it but if you've got a forecast for a battle between mild and cold air right over us then predicting the exact position is next to impossible more than a couple of days ahead. Here's a view of the area modelled by the GFS model, 100 miles either way for any of the precip would look completely insignificant on the image yet it'd make a huge difference to the weather. You can hardly call it sh!t when its basically predicting the future across the entire planet with good accuracy up to 5 days away

I'll give you the most recent fresh example seeing as you mentioned met.ie. They fc on their website a few days ago turning abnormaly cold next weekend snow etc to change it a few hours later.
I'm done now good luck and god bless

Weathering

United road wrote: »

Sick of these kind of statements.
We were close .... Blah blah blah.
Only 100 miles away blah blah blah!
Facts are - when the fcs are put up - they call out ireland. Not 100 or 300 miles away. This might seem harsh but its facts!
So when they are wrong by 300 miles then people have a right to be frustrated and not have the same ........... But it was very close when you look at the size of europe nonsense answers!

The lord has spoken

barney 20v

Harry Deerpark wrote: »

No-one is forcing you to come here.

Indeed....never suggested such!
Curious to get inside the minds of a certain element who post in here that is all!
The subsequent posts are revealing to say the least.

Rabidlamb

Worst ramping ever . . . . ever



. . . . but do you know what, I'll be back again next November

Rougies

The childish sense of entitlement and want for instant gratification being shown by certain posters is quite ridiculous. You have to remember the fact that this forum is a sub-forum of the science forum and in it's purest base-level form is a scientific discussion of meteorology. Such posts dismissing forecasts and models as "crap, sh1t, useless, waste of time" etc are an insult to the scientific community involved in meteorology and also everyone else from technicians and computer programmers to amateur enthusiasts that help the cause.

Weathering

Rougies wrote: »

The childish sense of entitlement and want for instant gratification being shown by certain posters is quite ridiculous. You have to remember the fact that this forum is a sub-forum of the science forum and in it's purest base-level form is a scientific discussion of meteorology. Such posts dismissing forecasts and models as "crap, sh1t, useless, waste of time" etc are an insult to the scientific community involved in meteorology and also everyone else from technicians and computer programmers to amateur enthusiasts that help the cause.

What the absolute utter hell are you on about?. Entitlent,gratification what the hell....are you on something? I said in a nut shell that I don't find weather models to be any good. God forbid anyone would say anything bad about weather models I wasn't aware that had feelings and emotions too please forgive I didn't mean to insult a machine of all things IM SORRY. I'd also like to give a shout out to the scientific community and apologise for having an opinion the day a man questions a machine is quite disgusting I think you'll agree.

Nabber

Weathering are you leaving or saying good-bye in terms of 'See you tomorrow'?

Twas a normal winter. Why all the anger?