The Football Tips Thread IV

Lord TSC

Quite a smart thing for the bookies to do if they are taking odds on a player who can't play. Though will they just void it?

Drogmal

Any word on the Newcastle team? Surely Mentalist are worth a punt at 1.9 to win at home.

Courtesy Flush

Headshot wrote: »

He can't play

Didnt know that
Betfair are quoting these odds !

John Mongo

Zenit and FC Basel double at 29/1 on PP.

Both teams won their first leg 2-0, reckon it'll be worth a tenner.

magherakid

Newcastle Team Krul; Simpson, Yanga-Mbiwa, Coloccini , Haidara; Anita, Cabaye; Cisse, Sissoko, Marveaux; Shola Ameobi.

Metalist Kharkiv 10/11

Lasagna Diarra

strong Newcastle team apart from Ameobi

Drogmal

No Tiote, Taylor or Gutierrez I'm hoping Mentalist should have enough to get by them in 90 minutes.

madma

hannover look good value does anyone know anything about them recently.. good recent home record and up aginst anzhi who are winning 3-1 from 1st leg.

hannover are 6/4. dnb looks good at 4/5. just not sure baout team news or if they'll be up for it

ShamoBuc

Done a small few doubles of home teams this evening but I'm on the pool corners aswell.

Pool will surely try to put the pressure on early and this should lead to a glut of corners- hopefully.

First half Pool corners over 3.... 20/21 - Ladbrokes

Lord TSC

Also on the Pool corners. Over 11 at 4/5.

Fitzcal

2 Icelandic ladies cup games tonight should be goal fests
Over 4.5 in the valur game@5-6

KombuchaMshroom

Blatter wrote: »

Where are they 5/6? I see them at best price 3/4 on oddschecker, but they only have prices for 4 bookies + BF up.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/barcelona-v-ac-milan/to-qualify

Sorry for late response, they were 5/6 with bet365 last night but seems they've gone into 7/10 already!

Courtesy Flush

Decided to go with Liverpool to score in both halves @ 2.38

Courtesy Flush

Courtesy Flush wrote: »

Decided to go with Liverpool to score in both halves @ 2.38

Bang
Good man Luis

Lord TSC

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

Also on the Pool corners. Over 11 at 4/5.

Left it late again but I'll take it

bradlente

Surprised Ajax couldn't nick a goal,Oh well.Looks like Steuea's plan is working whatever the hell it is.

Shane St.

Q.P.R. v Man United
You only have to look at QPRs recent results against some of the better teams to know what there game plan will be in this game. Recent home ties against Spurs and Man City finished 0-0, they have in fact drawn their last 3 home games 0-0. There game plan is very much to get 11 men behind the ball and try nick something on the break.
With their perilous league position they will eventually have to sacrifice this approach but I think they'd take a point against the runaway leaders. It's all a question of how long they can keep Utd out so I'm inclined to think this will be a low scoring affair. I think under 2.5 goals at even money looks a good shout. This bet has come in for 5 of QPR's last 6 league encounters and 3 of Utd's last 4 away games.
While there recent home results give encouragement that they could get a result I don't think they will be able to keep this Utd team out for the full 90mins. I can see this game being similar to their last away game where a late Wayne Rooney goal give them a 1-0 win at Fulham. Backing Utd to be level at half time but for their quality to see them through at 3/1 looks a good price.
Under 2.5 goals - evens
Half Time/Full Time - Draw Man Utd 3/1

Lord TSC

Given QPR will be all behind the ball, reckon there'll be a load of corners? United will want the win to go 15 points clear, but will that translate to corners? Anyone know what way QPR games go with corner counts?

Headshot

QPR with 11 men behind the ball

unders does look great alright

Dolph Starbeam

YayaBanana wrote: »

Treble for me tonight.

Liverpool
Benfica
Fenerbahce

@ 4/1

NICE ONE!

Higgytash

Shane St. wrote: »

Q.P.R. v Man United
.
Under 2.5 goals - evens
Half Time/Full Time - Draw Man Utd 3/1

Good shouts also loving Half with most goals - 2nd half, Evens - PP

shrewdness

Shane St. wrote: »

Q.P.R. v Man United
You only have to look at QPRs recent results against some of the better teams to know what there game plan will be in this game. Recent home ties against Spurs and Man City finished 0-0, they have in fact drawn their last 3 home games 0-0. There game plan is very much to get 11 men behind the ball and try nick something on the break.
With their perilous league position they will eventually have to sacrifice this approach but I think they'd take a point against the runaway leaders. It's all a question of how long they can keep Utd out so I'm inclined to think this will be a low scoring affair. I think under 2.5 goals at even money looks a good shout. This bet has come in for 5 of QPR's last 6 league encounters and 3 of Utd's last 4 away games.
While there recent home results give encouragement that they could get a result I don't think they will be able to keep this Utd team out for the full 90mins. I can see this game being similar to their last away game where a late Wayne Rooney goal give them a 1-0 win at Fulham. Backing Utd to be level at half time but for their quality to see them through at 3/1 looks a good price.
Under 2.5 goals - evens
Half Time/Full Time - Draw Man Utd 3/1

That does look good alright, I think I'll follow in the same vein and back Man Utd to win and 1 or 2 goals in the game, 11/4 (PP)

Shane St.

Man City v Chelsea
By the time of kick-off Man City could be 15 points behind Utd so only a win will do. City are set to welcome back Kompany and with Yaya Toure back too they will be something like full strength. Most importantly there strikers got amongst the goals in their win over Leeds in the FA cup with Aguero in particular looking very sharp.
It's Aguero I am looking to for some value in this game. It has been an extremely disappointing second campaign from the talented Argentine. He has only managed 9 league goals all season, and was criticized publicly by Mancini, along with the other strikers, in the wake of their 2-2 draw with Liverpool. However he should be full of confidence for this game after finding the net twice against Leeds.
Man City's recent record is very good against Chelsea. They have won this fixture the last 3 times at the Etihad. Chelsea had a game against Sparta on Thursday and key men like Mata, Cahill, Terry and Ramires had to play the full 90mins so the Man City team should be fresher. It's basically win or bust for Man City here so for that reason and with a fully fit squad I'm backing Man City to win.
Man City to win 10/11
Aguero 1st GS 9/2

Bradford v Swansea
Don't know a lot about Bradford but there is a huge gulf between these sides. Bradford only hope is from set pieces. They won't see enough of the ball though. Swansea are an outstanding side and I expect them to win this comfortably.
I think Michu to score 2 or more goals is generous at 10/3. He's the focal point of the team and has scored quite a few braces this season (against QPR twice in the league, Arsenal, Norwich)
When Swansea win games they usually win them by a couple of goals as they pass you to death. Of their 9 league wins 6 have been by at least a 2 goal margin. They also managed to cover the -1 handicap in games at Anfield and Stamford Bridge in this competition. Taking into account the standard of opposition they are facing at the weekend I think Swansea -1 at 10/11 is a great price.
Swansea -1 10/11
Michu to score 2 or more 10/3

Melion

Melion wrote: »

Can someone explain why Levante are 7/2 against Olympiakos? They won 3-0 last week at home

Delighted with that

tip74

Injuries and suspensions:
OGC Nice v Stade Reims
OGC Nice: Cvitanich (20/12 f, top scorer), Fofana (1/0 d), Genevois (17/0 d), Hennion (0/0 m), M'Bow (0/0 d), Pentecôte (2/0 f), Pied (19/0 m), Traoré (18/2 m), Bahoken (4/0 f)
Stade Reims: Peuget (0/0 m), Toudic (11/0 f), Ayité (14/1 f), Ghisolfi (8/0 m)
pick X2

Chamois Niortais v Le Mans FC
Chamois Niortais: Diaw (19/2 m), Glombard (22/2 f), Hébras (21/1 f), Durak (15/5 f), Lahaye (7/0 d)
Le Mans FC: Thomert (12/1 f), Buaillon (18/0 m)
pick X2

Sedan Ardennes v Tours FC
Sedan Ardennes: Marcq (16/0 m), Traoré (13/0 d)
Tours FC: Tritz (19/0 d), Gamiette (22/1 m), Oniangue (19/7 m), Biancardini (19/1 f), Kouakou (12/2 f)
pick 1X

SV Wehen v Hansa Rostock
SV Wehen: Book (3/0 m), Mintzel (21/2 m), Müller (26/1 m)
Hansa Rostock: Gusche (8/0 d), Trapp (2/0 d), Jordanov (11/1 m), Lartey (1/0 m), Leemans (19/1 m), Mendy (21/0 m), Quaschner (13/1 f), Smetana (17/7 f, top scorer)
pick 1X

Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad
Athletic Bilbao: Muniain (21/0 f), De Marcos (23/5 f) (both doubtful), Galarreta (3/0 m), Iñigo Pérez (5/0 m), Ekiza (14/0 d), Gurpegui (18/0 m)
Real Sociedad: Elustondo (6/1 m) (doubtful)
pick X2

Lasagna Diarra

Big drop in odds on Karabakh/Qarabag

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/azerbaijan/premier-league/ravan-karabakh-agdam-1396714/

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Melion wrote: »

Delighted with that

Got the result and fair play.Olympiacos completely dominated the game but football is about putting the ball in the net and Olympiacos couldnt manage it!

Keano!

Going for Caen 2-0 against Lavel in Ligue 2 later this evening...

7.50 on Paddy... looks like a whopper price for the score from what I've seen. Caen rarely score more than 2 and Lavel struggling at the bottom conceded on average 2 goals a game.

bradlente

Good write up on the City Chelsea game Shane St.Just to add Chelsea have only won 1/5 of their last away games,Drawing against the likes of Brentford in the cup.Whereas since the Manc derby Man City have won 5/6 home games conceding 0 goals in those 5 wins(Granted 2 of those games were against lower league sides,And Liverpool were at times the better side at the Ethihad.But they tend to raise their game against the big sides anyway).Not only did those top names you mentioned play 90 minutes on Thursday but they have also played 2 other matches in the last 7 days.Something is very wrong in the City camp imo if a fresh side of their calibre can't deal with Chelsea on Sunday.
I'll be taking the Aguero wincast @3.5,As he takes penalties as well for City who have won the 2nd most penos only behind Chelsea(Both have won 5 at home).Chelsea have only conceded one penalty this year but there'll be some tired legs at the back on Sunday and I think its worth accounting for by throwing an Aguero goal in with the outright win.

Higgytash

Southampton for me 5/2 are the Bet of the Weekend.

Newcastle played last night with a more or less full team away in Ukraine, it was a really tough game for them and surely will affect them for Sunday not to mention all the travelling. They also have numerous Injury worries in, Ben Arfa, Cabaye, Gouffran, and Tiote. Southampton will have a full team at their disposal plus they have had 2 week rest since their great home win against champions city, Newcaslte have played 2 games since their Spurs loss. This year Southampton have only lost to Man United and Chelsea they have become an extremely difficult side to beat, earlier this season they beat newcastle 2-0.

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Another fixed game in the Azeri league...and again Baku...

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/azerbaijan/premier-league-2012-2013/simurq-zaqatala-fk-baku-1396715/

Marathonbet still have the game

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Big drop in odds on Karabakh/Qarabag

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/azerbaijan/premier-league/ravan-karabakh-agdam-1396714/

Qarabag won 3-2 thanks to a last minute goal

Baku drew 0-0 but missed a penalty in added time

gotta love Azeri football :rolleyes:

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Qarabag won 3-2 thanks to a last minute goal

Baku drew 0-0 but missed a penalty in added time

gotta love Azeri football :rolleyes:

What do you think of tonight Ligue one game Lassa? I was comtemplating throwing a few quid on Nice.

Lasagna Diarra

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

What do you think of tonight Ligue one game Lassa? I was comtemplating throwing a few quid on Nice.

Nice are pretty strong at home and Reims are awful away from home. Nice are missing their top scorer Cvitanich so they'll play with 16-year-old wonderkid Maupay up front, he's hugely talented for his age but still only 16 so I'm not sure if he can deliver week in week out (he scored last week). Reims have a pretty solid GK so either a draw or a Nice win... I'd be more confident if Cvitanich was in the team.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Nice are pretty strong at home and Reims are awful away from home. Nice are missing their top scorer Cvitanich so they'll play with 16-year-old wonderkid Maupay up front, he's hugely talented for his age but still only 16 so I'm not sure if he can deliver week in week out (he scored last week). Reims have a pretty solid GK so either a draw or a Nice win... I'd be more confident if Cvitanich was in the team.

Ok thanks man. I'll make a more informed bet now!

Headshot

I tried with boyles to get odds on Barton to be booked. They didn't have any ugh

Higgytash

Always goal feasts in Holland gonna stick a cheeky 5er on both teams to score in all Holland fixtures tonight, works out at around 30/1 for all 9 games...

Always comes close, last 4 weeks fixtures think there were only 1 or 2 teams who failed to score.

eh i dunno

A dnb treble of Nice Nimes MVV at just over evens

inforfun

Higgytash wrote: »

Always goal feasts in Holland gonna stick a cheeky 5er on both teams to score in all Holland fixtures tonight, works out at around 30/1 for all 9 games...

Always comes close, last 4 weeks fixtures think there were only 1 or 2 teams who failed to score.

Hasnt happened all season.
Better off taking all matches to go over 2,5.
At least that happened once in the entire season and it is @33.15

Edit: Funny enough, only time all went over 2,5 was the reverse fixture list of tonight...... week 9

DoctaDee

Yeah Infor I've fallen out of love with Eerste Divisie recently on the +2.5. Tend to wait 30 mins into in-play and hopefully pick up some +1.5 bets.

Edit .. just on a related note.. I was looking @ Ligue 2 in France for +1.5's. There were at least 3 games I can see under 1.5 ... I hate unders

Lasagna Diarra

The 16 year old wonderkid is on the bench for Nice, starting upfront is Boselli, no idea how good he is though.

tiny bet on Bosetti to score first @ 6.50

Fitzcal

I read a report during the week regarding tonight's Basque derby
It's the same ref that reffed Celtic juventus last week and Bilbao have only won 4 out 24 games that he has taken charge of.
Bilbao complained to huge Spanish fa about the appointment.
Another interesting stat is in each of Sociedads last 8 games their opponents finished with 10 men

bradlente

Anybody else tempted to back Benteke anytime against Arsenal @4.33?

6 in his last 5,Also Jenkinson will replace Sagna and Monreal should start.I think Villa could have the better of both of these two down the flanks,As they won't get great cover from Podolski or Walcott(Should he start out there),Monreal seems a good player but starting off in a new league can be difficult.
If Villa can gain the upper hand out wide then I think Benteke is very likely to score-He has competed in 50 more aerial duels (330) than any other player in Europe's top 5 leagues and, in turn, has unsurprisingly won more than any other player (192). Hes in ridiculous form and is at the head of everything Villa do offensively.So I think hes worth a punt against a vulnerable Arsenal backline.

Headshot

I fancy corner kicks in that match myself. Villa most likely with 11 men behind the ball and arsenal desperately needing a win for CL

eh i dunno

eh i dunno wrote: »

A dnb treble of Nice Nimes MVV at just over evens

Nice and Nimes win but MVV throwaway a lead :mad:

Avfctom

bradlente wrote: »

Anybody else tempted to back Benteke anytime against Arsenal @4.33?

6 in his last 5,Also Jenkinson will replace Sagna and Monreal should start.I think Villa could have the better of both of these two down the flanks,As they won't get great cover from Podolski or Walcott(Should he start out there),Monreal seems a good player but starting off in a new league can be difficult.
If Villa can gain the upper hand out wide then I think Benteke is very likely to score-He has competed in 50 more aerial duels (330) than any other player in Europe's top 5 leagues and, in turn, has unsurprisingly won more than any other player (192). Hes in ridiculous form and is at the head of everything Villa do offensively.So I think hes worth a punt against a vulnerable Arsenal backline.

Agbonlahor and nzogbia expected to start on the wings for villa there pace can hurt arsenal i think we will lose 3-1 but can deffo see benteke scoring hes made better centre backs than mertersacker look average like agger skrtel heiteniga i think its a very nice price and will be on wish i could say our good record at the emritates continues but i cant see it but il have a small stake on

Benteke anytime villa win 16/1

As i remember giving us no chance at anfield and benteke wincast was 20/1 and was gutted i missed it so il chance a tenner

Also its a known fact benteke supported arsenal as a boy and has said he one day wants to play for them so could be even more incentive to perform

Avfctom

Headshot wrote: »

I fancy corner kicks in that match myself. Villa most likely with 11 men behind the ball and arsenal desperately needing a win for CL

Really cant see that myself

Villa havent played that way all season cant see that changing now lambert seems to want to attack at all costs nice change from last year

Everton away
Liverpool away
City away
All three games at big clubs villa have attacked and got results

But villa are woeful from corners defensively so agree arsenal will look to exploit that

bradlente

Headshot wrote: »

I fancy corner kicks in that match myself. Villa most likely with 11 men behind the ball and arsenal desperately needing a win for CL

Can't argue against Arsenal dominating the game,But I think Villa may have found their form now and I'd trust them over Arsenal to give a big performance tomorrow.

The handicap looks a bit too big,Arsenal have only covered -5 three times at home this season,Same numbers for Villa in their away games.

Over 11.5 looks ok judging from each sides last 4 home/away games I suppose,Its came in 7/8,But it doesn't look great when you go back into last year and the first half of the season.

@4/5 I'll give that a miss,But good luck whatever you go with.

bradlente

Avfctom wrote: »

But villa are woeful from corners defensively so agree arsenal will look to exploit that

From the Guardian:
Arsenal have created fewer goalscoring opportunities from corners (24) this season than any other side in the Premier League.

ShamoBuc

Fitzcal wrote: »

I read a report during the week regarding tonight's Basque derby
It's the same ref that reffed Celtic juventus last week and Bilbao have only won 4 out 24 games that he has taken charge of.
Bilbao complained to huge Spanish fa about the appointment.
Another interesting stat is in each of Sociedads last 8 games their opponents finished with 10 men

Despite taking the lead, Bilbao lost 1-3

Backstreet Moyes

Any opinions pays 8/1.

Watford
Middleborough
Over 2.5 peterbourough/birmingham
btts reading/wigan