The Football Tips Thread IV

Kevwoody

Barnsley to score a goal in 2nd half

@ 3.75

Anyone watching think they'll get a consolation?

El Nino09

Deportivo are cat , Barca to win both halves 5/6

Lasagna Diarra

2 small singles:
Mutu (Ajaccio) anytime @ 3.00

Belghazouani (Ajaccio) anytime @ 5.00

I fancy Ajaccio to score, they're strong at home and Lorient always play attacking football.

Radonman

El Nino09 wrote: »

Deportivo are cat , Barca to win both halves 5/6

Barcalona have always struggled without Messi and Inesta - small punt on 0-0 half time correct score @ 9/2

tinodz

magherakid wrote: »

Barcelona line-up (official): Pinto - Alves Puyol Mascherano Adriano - Cesc Song Thiago - Alexis Villa Tello

Barcelona bench: Masip, Pique, Alba, Busquets, Iniesta, Pedro, Messi

Interestingly this means that Pizzi is the joint Top Goalscorer (Goals this season in La Liga) on the pitch for the match (7 Goals, 4 Penos). Pizzi also scored two goals in the last H2H back in October (that match finished 5-4). Out of the Top 4 in La Liga, Barcelona also boast the worst defense.

So, tossing a bit on Pizzi Anytime @ 6/1 (SkyBet).

Avfctom

With david villa starting through the middle gone for

Villa 2 or more 11/4 £20

RandolphEsq

Lille to score a goal 1.20 PP. Add it to a double etc.

EDIT: **** it's already started, I put that bet on earlier, forget to post here. 1.3 at the moment.

Udinese to score a goal 1/5 PP.

Headshot

infor what ya think of the corners bet in the az game?

Dio On The Doubles

Dio On The Doubles wrote: »

Jumping on the live treble market on Paddy Power for the Man City game.

Man city to win, less than 12 corners in the match and card index over 3.0

11/2

Cheers

City win, 11 corners .. just let down by 2.0 card. Next time.

On Villa first and also Villa two or more goals in Barca game.

Kevwoody

Looking to tomorrow, anyone brave enough to get on Bale?

Anytime @2.62
Wincast @5.0

Lord TSC

I'm more tempted by the DNB for Spurs at 15/8. I know they are away from home but they are pushing towards second place and I think they stand a good chance of the win.

Avfctom

Kevwoody wrote: »

Looking to tomorrow, anyone brave enough to get on Bale?

Anytime @2.62
Wincast @5.0

Wincast 11/2 at hills

Avfctom

Dio On The Doubles wrote: »

City win, 11 corners .. just let down by 2.0 card. Next time.

On Villa first and also Villa two or more goals in Barca game.

God heshould have 2 already frustrating player

Radonman

Radonman wrote: »

Barcalona have always struggled without Messi and Inesta - small punt on 0-0 half time correct score @ 9/2

Goal came so late in the first half got it covered so was a win win

mailburner

Kevwoody wrote: »

Looking to tomorrow, anyone brave enough to get on Bale?

Anytime @2.62
Wincast @5.0

anytime again for me and a small bet on first, just have
to keep following
hoping someone will have a price up for suarez and bale
both to score

can't call this match but no way should spurs be 10/3
spurs double chance at 19/20 looks a better bet to
me than pool at 17/20
pool have lost 4 at home, spurs have lost 4 way

Might be a draw imo

JLoftus

Suarez and Bale Anytime goalscorer double 11/2 with William Hill

mailburner wrote: »

anytime again for me and a small bet on first, just have
to keep following
hoping someone will have a price up for suarez and bale
both to score

can't call this match but no way should spurs be 10/3
spurs double chance at 19/20 looks a better bet to
me than pool at 17/20
pool have lost 4 at home, spurs have lost 4 way

Might be a draw imo

RandolphEsq

RandolphEsq wrote: »

Lille to score a goal 1.20 PP. Add it to a double etc.

EDIT: **** it's already started, I put that bet on earlier, forget to post here. 1.3 at the moment.

Udinese to score a goal 1/5 PP.

Lille in at 54 minutes. Went to 1.5 at half-time.
Udinese in at 62 minutes.

Kevwoody

Just can't make up my mind whether to go for bale anytime or bale wincast. The latter is sooo tempting at 5/1

Also looking at a treble of BTTS

Liverpool -Spurs
Man Utd - Chelsea
Newcastle - Stoke

Just over 4.4 on pp

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Probably throwing away money but 50 on the draw in barca game at 22/1

P.Walnuts

Kevwoody wrote: »

Just can't make up my mind whether to go for bale anytime or bale wincast. The latter is sooo tempting at 5/1

Also looking at a treble of BTTS

Liverpool -Spurs
Man Utd - Chelsea
Newcastle - Stoke

Just over 4.4 on pp

I wouldnt be coinfident on BTTS in that one, Stoke scored only 8 away all season.

El Nino09

El Nino09 wrote: »

Deportivo are cat , Barca to win both halves 5/6

Left it late

Keano!

Sevilla under Emery have been sensational at home since his arrival and not disgraced away from home either

Home form: 5 games / 5 wins
Away form: 4 games / 1 draw & 3 defeats

Defeats at Valencia, Barca and Real... hardly disgraced. Barca needed two second half goals to overcome them. Getafe also had to come befrom behind to seal a draw.

Fancy them to take Mallorca tonight away. Mallorca on a 11 game winless streak at home and Sevilla did smash five beyond them in the Copa Del Ray...

Powers giving Sevilla at 2.25 at the min. Was hoping to get on the cards index for this one but no market. Ref has shown at least 5 cards on average in his La Liga games this season and likes to flash the red too.


So it's Sevilla to come away with the points for me. Top scorer, Negrado (13) also starts for the visitors.

FlawedGenius

FlawedGenius wrote: »

Deportivo +3 at 1/1 for me

Easy:)

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Draw Udinese v Roma game 100@4.2

inforfun

Headshot wrote: »

infor what ya think of the corners bet in the az game?

Only seeing this now. Sorry. Expected quite a few corners. Didnt expect ADO to get so many though

FatRat

I agree with Keano above.. Sevilla seem like bankers for this game.

mailburner

likewise with seville moreso because mallorca are really just so bad


what to do though...

FatRat

I did Sevilla to win. Also did Negredo first goalscorer at 4/1. Was considering Sevilla to win race to 2 goals at 6/4 but passed.

FatRat

FML anyway....

Keano!

FatRat wrote: »

FML anyway....

Been all sevilla too...

Lord TSC

Here's one for people...

Bale Wincast & Rooney Wincast double is just under 17/1 (PP).

The Bale wincast speaks for itself, and at 5/1 is already, imo, too good odds considering both his and the team's recent form. Spurs are pushing to second place and a win leaves them only two points off that.

After the whole "Rooney is going" fiasco midweek, coupled with the Real Madrid result, I can see Rooney going gung-ho tomorrow, and I think United will push hard to get through to the semi-finals of the FA.

Thoughts?

FatRat

really need a Sevilla goal before HT... Really considering Negredo next goalscorer too!

FatRat

Spurs - Over 6 Corners @ 5/2


Stats from ther last few games:

Spurs vs Arsenal 4-6
West Ham vs Spurs 6-12
Spurs vs Newcastler 11-5
West Brom vs Spurs 2-17
Norwich vs Spurs 3-6
Spurs vs Man United 9-4
Spurs vs Reading 12-3
Sunderland vs Spurs 3-8
Aston Villa vs Spurs 2-16
Spurs vs Stoke 11-4

I reckon they'll be on the back foot against Livepool for a lot of the game which will result in more corners imo. I think they'll concede first or go level/be losing at some stage anyway which will cause more corners. The onyl games where they get fewer corners than 7 is when they're winning for most of the game.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

100 on the draw in Mallorca vs Seville @3.65

mailburner

could it happen again with bale?
1st scorer last 4 prem games and he's
as big as 6s now to score first
as long as he scores i'll be in profit though (pp)
have to follow



Premier League Matches Liverpool v Tottenham
10-03-2013 16:00
Match Specials
Suarez & Bale to both score in 90 minutes play @ 11/2
Premier League Matches Liverpool v Tottenham
10-03-2013 16:00
Wincast
G Bale to score in 90 minutes and Tottenham to win the match @ 5/1
Premier League Matches Liverpool v Tottenham
10-03-2013 16:00
Anytime Goalscorer
G Bale @ 13/8
Premier League Matches Liverpool v Tottenham
10-03-2013 16:00
First Goalscorer
G Bale @ 6/1

Shane St.

Kevwoody wrote: »

Looking to tomorrow, anyone brave enough to get on Bale?

Anytime @2.62
Wincast @5.0

Hasn't required much bravery lately :P

PunterAssist

I will have to resist the temptation of the Bale bet.

His conversion rate is massive. The goal drought is coming sooner rather than later.








Dutch Eredivisie - Roda v Feyenoord - Both Teams To Score - 1.57 (Bet365)

English FA Cup - Man Utd v Chelsea - Both Teams To Score - 1.67 (Ladbrokes)

Headshot

inforfun wrote: »

Only seeing this now. Sorry. Expected quite a few corners. Didnt expect ADO to get so many though

Was a great game

Im looking at the Twente game and I cant get over the odds on Vit

They have been in form and lets face it Twente are pretty poor

I like the DC @ 5/6 but what really stands out at me is the Vit win and over 2.5 goals @ 4/1

what ya think infor?

Any team news I should know?

bradlente

Anybody catch Bentekes price to score anytime today?

Spurs haven't lost to Liverpool since January 2010 and I don't think that will change tomorrow.The European game midweek does make me think twice about a straight win though.Liverpool are far too patchy to convince me they should win.Losing to the likes of WBA at home only a month ago dosen't make the short price they are to beat a much better Spurs side very attractive.

AVB lost to Liverpool twice whilst he was at Chelsea but has a win under his belt against them this season.Spurs are too strong right now for me to ignore the double chance @1.95.I can't accept Liverpool having a 48-49% chance to win here,Which is what that price states.It's more like 35-45% for me.

I'll take a bit of the draw@4.1 as well.It won't be as easy for Spurs as it has been in recent past meetings between the two,I'd have this at Spurs 25-30% Draw 25-35% and Liverpool 40-45%.That's a bit vague and my own opinion on the probability,But I'll take the chance and look for my first football winner in yonks.

Spurs DC-1.95(19/20)
Draw-4.1(31/10)

tinodz

Thinking about tomorrow, really want to bet on Bale Wincast, so I stumbled on some stats

Total
Bale goals in Premiership 16
Bale away goals in Premiership 11
Bale home goals in Premiership 5

Liverpool have not beaten Suprs H2H since 2010

Date Spurs H/A FT Score
28/11/12 Home Win 2 - 1
28/07/12 Away Draw 0 - 0
06/02/12 Away Draw 0 - 0
18/09/11 Home Win 4 - 0
15/05/11 Away Win 0 - 2
28/11/10 Home Win 2 - 1
20/01/10 Away Loss 2 - 0


Record against top 10 Teams (based on most recent games)

Liverpoool vs Result
Fulham W
Swansea W
West Brom L
Everton D
Arsenal D
Chelsea D
Spurs L
Man City D
Man Utd L
10 Points

Spurs vs Result
Fulham W
Swansea W
Liverpool W
West Brom W
Everton L
Arsenal W
Chelsea L
Man City L
Man Utd D
16 Points

Last 10 Spurs Away Games
L L W W W W D W D W W 23 Points

Last 10 Pool Home Games
W D W W D W W W D W 24 Points

In my opinion, based on these few stats, the fact that the bookies have Liverpool under Evens is (once again) overselling their quality.

Sure, their home form is great, but Spurs away form has resulted in just one point less over the last 10 games. Spurs are also the much better team when playing against the Top 10, and Bale is ON FIRE when playing away.

I have not made a bet yet, but I am more intrested in the Bale Wincast that ever now, :pac:

FatRat

tinodz wrote: »

I have not made a bet yet, but I am more intrested in the Bale Wincast that ever now, :pac:

Just go for corners... saves the headache

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

FatRat wrote: »

Just go for corners... saves the headache

Spurs could score early and the corners bet may be down the tubes then

tinodz

FatRat wrote: »

Just go for corners... saves the headache

I thought of this, but last time I bet on corners in a Pool game was a massive fail, and the last time a few of you guys went for corners for Spurs (vs Inter) was a fail too

The 5/1 Bale Wincast is far too big!!

I am so confused

Shane St.

Man United v Chelsea
In many ways this is the perfect game for Utd to have after the devastating European exit midweek. It might have been harder to get the players motivated for a game against a lesser team. I suspect the players will be highly charged and keen to put in a performance after what was a very harsh exit for them.
Utd have been impressive in bouncing back from defeats this season. They have lost 5 games this season and have bounced back with wins the very next game in 4 of those 5 defeats, the exception being a defeat in Galatasaray following the shock loss to Norwich in the league. However, with the group already wrapped up they fielded a very weakened team. When it matters this season Utd have bounced back from defeats.
I think you have to get involved with Utd at 4/5 to see off Chelsea. They have an excellent recent record against them, unbeaten in 7, and winning 5 of those 7. They have won the last 3 meetings at Old Trafford too. Chelsea had a difficult game in the Europa League on Thursday with many of the players you would expect to feature tomorrow playing the full 90mins (Ivanovic, Luiz, Terry, Mikel, Lampard, Oscar). Freshness could come into play.
Chelsea have lost their last 2 away games in the league as well as the defeat to Steaua on Thursday and I find it hard not to get involved with Utd at 4/5.
Utd win 4/5

Shane St.

The one thing putting me off Spurs 2mrw is Liverpool are a far better team when Sturridge plays. He definitely gives them an extra dimension. Of the 4 league games Suarez and Sturridge have both started Liverpool haven't lost (big wins against swansea and norwich and draws against City and Arsenal).
They played excellently in both the big games against City and Arsenal and they were slightly unlucky to just draw both. They also looked transformed at Old Trafford when they brought Sturridge on for the 2nd half.
Also taking into account Liverpool are usually able to raise their game against the bigger sides (only recent home defeats have been against lesser teams - Villa and West Brom)
I personally think it will be a draw (last 2 league games between these two at Anfield have been draws).
Might do Bale anytime also.

Shane St.

bradlente wrote: »

Anybody catch Bentekes price to score anytime today?

Spurs haven't lost to Liverpool since January 2010 and I don't think that will change tomorrow.The European game midweek does make me think twice about a straight win though.Liverpool are far too patchy to convince me they should win.Losing to the likes of WBA at home only a month ago dosen't make the short price they are to beat a much better Spurs side very attractive.

AVB lost to Liverpool twice whilst he was at Chelsea but has a win under his belt against them this season.Spurs are too strong right now for me to ignore the double chance @1.95.I can't accept Liverpool having a 48-49% chance to win here,Which is what that price states.It's more like 35-45% for me.

I'll take a bit of the draw@4.1 as well.It won't be as easy for Spurs as it has been in recent past meetings between the two,I'd have this at Spurs 25-30% Draw 25-35% and Liverpool 40-45%.That's a bit vague and my own opinion on the probability,But I'll take the chance and look for my first football winner in yonks.

Spurs DC-1.95(19/20)
Draw-4.1(31/10)

He was 11/8 had him in a double with Remy anytime

bradlente

Shane St. wrote: »

He was 11/8 had him in a double with Remy anytime

Nice one.I don't think I would've taken that but fair dues!

Rafa would love a result at OT,Utd should win but I think I'll steer clear,I don't really know why though.Maybe the fact that its a cup tie and Chelsea are on a massive streak in them,Combined with Rafas tactical approach I'm just not that excited about the idea of backing Utd to win tomorrow.I don't think its a bad bet though.I've found it hard to back anything under 10/11 or so recently,Should probably try taking a few shorter prices on,I've been getting big value mixed up with big odds too much recently I think.

I might take them on with Spurs DC in a double or maybe another decent value winner somewhere in Europe.

PunterAssist

tinodz wrote: »

Thinking about tomorrow, really want to bet on Bale Wincast, so I stumbled on some stats.....

I'm not sure how any of those stats translate into a Bale wincast.

A stat that might interest you is that Liverpool have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 10 home league matches and as far as I'm aware have a full strength defence tomorrow.

Tottenham have had 3 days rest for this match - Liverpool have had 8 after dismantling a Wigan team who today went out and beat Everton 3-0.

Bale has scored 24 goals from just 54 shots on target (He has been incredibly lucky this season combined with playing very well). The Bale wincast is mentioned here everytime Bale plays so ye might find the Opta Stats in this article useful in deciding bet/stake/value for the remainder of the season.



Regardless as a Liverpool supporter (a poor choice in my youth) I can't back them profitably and I can't bring myself to back against them so good luck with whatever bet you choose.

PunterAssist

Man Utd v Chelsea

Last 6 Head To Head Results

Chelsea 5-4 Man Utd
Chelsea 2-3 Man Utd
Chelsea 3-3 Man Utd
Man Utd 3-1 Chelsea
Man Utd 2-1 Chelsea
Man Utd 2-1 Chelsea





Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 (Ladbrokes) is a very big price and should be considered the main bet.

Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.7 (Ladbrokes) holds quite a lot of appeal however I believe that it would show a similar long term ROI to the BTTS bet with added variance.





Chelsea lost 0-1 On Thursday in Bucharest with Benayoun starting in place of Mata and Bertrand starting in place of Cole. Mata will play a crucial role in this match and will provide the most attacking threat and can be had at odds of 4.33 (Ladbrokes) to score anytime and Chelsea will want to defend their title against the runaway league leaders who suffered a controversial defeat to Real Madrid and as so often happens with Man Utd when they lose a match their next opponents concede a few goals as Ferguson likes to get the confidence back in his team immediately. Man Utd have won 4 of the last 6 H2H encounters and can be had at odds of 2.5 to win & over 2.5 match goals @ 2.5 (Bet365). After Rooney starting on the bench against Real Madrid you can be guaranteed that he will be the most dedicated player on the pitch and will be out to prove a point to Ferguson - Rooney to score anytime 2.38 (Stan James) - Rooney First Goalscorer 6.0 (Stan James) - Rooney Anytime Wincast 3.5 (BetFred)

There is an interesting Money Back Special from Paddy Power - "If Wayne Rooney scores the last goal in this match, we will refund all losing First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Correct Score & Scorecast singles on the game."

https://twitter.com/PunterAssist

AidySevenfold

Fancy Hannover tomorrow. Excellent record at home and they are 13/10 to beat Frankfurt who have struggled in the last few games.

Another bet I fancy is Veria who are home to OFI Crete. Veria have won their last 2, OFI have lost their last 4 and have lost 9 of 11 away games.

Thinking of doing this double tomorrow.