The Football Tips Thread IV

Bateman

squirrelohara wrote: »

Paddys special:
Holland, Belgium and England 9/4.
With Holland and Belgium at home expecting easy wins, is it worth taking this price as it seems to be down to England who are 10/11 to win the game.
Just wondering what ye thought of it.

I guess if it's an enhanced special there must be some value in there, but personally I don't trust England away from home odds-on against a team as useful as they face tonight.

Not saying I am definitely laying them (although I might), just don't think I'd have them at odds-on.

sReq | uTeK

Holland, Portugal, Italy all win to nil
Croatia, Belgium, Argentina all to win.

18/1

JonnyM

jkelly85 wrote: »

Belgium -1 at 13/5 ???
That has to be wrong. 4/5 -1 in most bookies. Could be -2 you have done

aaahhhhhhhh!!!

Its a first half handicap dont know how i did that

jkelly85

JonnyM wrote: »

aaahhhhhhhh!!!

Its a first half handicap dont know how i did that

Was thinking cos I have been looking at Belgium -1 all week as my main bet

P.Walnuts

inforfun wrote: »

Holland - Romania tonight:

Hollands last 16 WC qualifiers at home (Going back to April 2001):

P16 W15 D1 L0 GS 45 GC 1(3-1 win vs Finland)

Which means 15 clean sheets, 14 of those were won matches.

According to the Dutch newspapers, the Romanian coach announced they will have a careful approach and try to get a draw.

Just like against Estland a Dutch win to nil with a HT result of 0-0 is very much possible.

Holland and under 2.5 @ 3.10?

CriticEyes

Am i missing something but Japan win to nil @ 8/5? win is 8/13. Are Jordon good?

P.Walnuts

Anyone have anything on Irelands corner stats?

Over 5.5 @ 10/11

And HC -1 @ 20/21

look decent from a purely uneducated viewpoint

inforfun

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Holland and under 2.5 @ 3.10?

When Holland gets a first goal, things still might get ugly for Romania.
Romania is hoping for a a point but if they go behind they will also know it doesnt really matter, they need the points against Turkey and Hungary.

Nice odds but it only needs a goal for Romania or 3 from Holland to go tits up.

Estonia had a 1 great chance they should have taken, same kind of chance falls to Mutu and i dont expect him to miss.

Cant get Hlland and under 3,5? worse odds of course but a safer option imo.

ShamoBuc

CriticEyes wrote: »

Am i missing something but Japan win to nil @ 8/5? win is 8/13. Are Jordon good?

Japan P 5 W 4 D 1 L 0 F 13 A 2 ......

Jordan P 5 W 1 D 1 L 3 F 4 A 11

No, Jordan are not good...but they are at home and are capable of nicking a goal.

I've Japan to win, ht/ft and to win 3-0....small enough bets..just for interest.

CriticEyes

ShamoBuc wrote: »

Japan P 5 W 4 D 1 L 0 F 13 A 2 ......

Jordan P 5 W 1 D 1 L 3 F 4 A 11

No Jordan are not good...but they are at home and are capable of nicking a goal.

I've Japan to win, ht/ft and to win 3-0....small enough bets..just for interest.

Im going to request odds on shinji okazaki wincast. He has from what i can see 14 goals in 15 for the national team and 4 in his last 5 games for Japan. Might be a half decent price.

Professional Griefer

Japan 4/6 to win now. Its only Jordan..but I dunno.

mrdmb

I saw some of their games especially their winwin against Australia. They literally have 8 defenders and 2 for counters. But recently the performance of their. 2 main clubs has been poor.. so I do expect a Japanese win

PurpleSt4in

I would stay away from Montenegro England myself.

ShamoBuc

I'll wait for 20 mins and see how it is going - but I might put another bet on Japan if they get to evens, they really should be winning this by a couple of goals.

Paully D

Not much value around at all today, but a couple of bets I've looked at that people might be interested in:

Ecuador (4/7 Bet 365) vs Parguay:

Ecuador have a big advantage when playing at home due to the altitude, so much so they have won their last 10 games at home (in all competitions) and have only been beaten by an excellent young Colombia side since October 2010.

Also of interest is that Ecuador have won 8 of those last 10 homes games to nil.

Paraguay meanwhile have really struggled in qualification this year and prop up the table on 8 points. They did nick a point against an out of form Uruguay side the other night but have only won 1 game in 8 (in all competitions) on the road and that was against Guatemala.

Ecuador to win at 4/7 looks attractive and some may also be tempted by Ecuador to win to nil at 6/5, also with Bet 365.

Albania (5/6 188 Bet) vs Lithuania:

Note that this is a friendly.

I think Albania are good value at home here despite this being a friendly.

Albania have only lost 2 of their last 7 games at home and will be in good spirits after an excellent 1-0 win away to Norway at the weekend in a WCQ.

Lithuania meanwhile are absolutely shocking away from home, losing 14 of their last 18 away with their sole win in the last 14 away coming against Leichenstein.

Lithuania clearly suffer on the road and with Albania in such high spirits I think there's value to be had about the 5/6 price.

Czech Republic (10/9 Pinnacle) vs Armenia:

Whilst most people will remember Armenia for causing a lot of problems in Ireland's group last time out, this is a game where I think the Czech's are value.

Yes, Armenia are not a bad side, but they are missing 5 or 6 important players which has left the manager with no choice but to field inexperienced, second choice players. They also rarely keep clean sheets at home (1 in their last 7), so I would argue such an inexperienced team will struggle to cope if/when the Czech's score.

The Czech's welcome back Premier League players such as Rosicky and Cech for this one which should strengthen them significantly. They have also been pretty solid away from home in recent times, with only 1 defeat in 9 away, impressively beating Turkey 2-0 away from home most recently.

They are far from an excellent or even very good side, but I think they're worth a punt at that price against a team with so many players missing and a knack of conceding at least one goal a game.

Good luck all!

P.Walnuts

A strange and frightening feeling but i'm really tempting to back Ireland tonight at 11/8...

GK1001

ShamoBuc wrote: »

I'll wait for 20 mins and see how it is going - but I might put another bet on Japan if they get to evens, they really should be winning this by a couple of goals.

Think it was a good call by JonnyM on the +2.5goals. Took a piece of that. Now lets see how it plays out...

CriticEyes

Argentina 4/5 away to Bolivia. hmmmmmmm...........

inforfun

CriticEyes wrote: »

Argentina 4/5 away to Bolivia. hmmmmmmm...........

They (Bolivia) could win there.
Try to find out where they play, some stadiums are above 3500m and everybody will struggle after 60 mins.
But i think i remember there has been a restriction since a few years that they cant play above 3500m

You can have a look at how bolivian teams perform in the Copa Libertadores at home compared to away and see what altitude can do to a team.

buyer95

2 euros on Sammon at 17/2 and 2 euros on Walters at 17/2 to score 1st, Sammon's a forward FFS! I reckon he might get a header from a set piece

PurpleSt4in

A few correct score predictions for tonight.. I tried to pick games where I feel the home side will keep a clean sheet. I will try patent(s) of a few different combinations. (Small stake)

Germany v Kazakhstan 4-0/5-0
Ukraine v Moldova 3-0/4-0
Poland v S Marino 4-0/5-0

Melion

4 draws in the Ireland, N.Ireland, England and Spain games. Pays over 100/1

inforfun

Poland will score more than 4 or 5 i think.
They hammered San Marino 10-0 last time they met.

Germany i have on scoring over 4,5 myself. Not too sure about that now after all, they have no centre forward left. Gomez left the team injured.

Paully D

CriticEyes wrote: »

Argentina 4/5 away to Bolivia. hmmmmmmm...........

It's a very tempting price but I don't like backing teams playing away at altitude.

Look at the difference in Boliva's home and away form. Unbeaten in their last 6 at home, they haven't won in 27 games away.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Melion wrote: »

4 draws in the Ireland, N.Ireland, England and Spain games. Pays over 100/1

Like that love me the draws in International week. although i went 0-3 on Friday!

opr

squirrelohara wrote: »

Paddys special:
Holland, Belgium and England 9/4.
With Holland and Belgium at home expecting easy wins, is it worth taking this price as it seems to be down to England who are 10/11 to win the game.
Just wondering what ye thought of it.

Bateman wrote: »

I guess if it's an enhanced special there must be some value in there, but personally I don't trust England away from home odds-on against a team as useful as they face tonight.

Not saying I am definitely laying them (although I might), just don't think I'd have them at odds-on.

It's not even really enhanced. The treble priced normally with other bookies is 9/4.

Opr

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

opr wrote: »

It's not even really enhanced. The treble priced normally with other bookies is 9/4.

Opr

I had a look at bet365, Ladbrokes and Betfair and it came out slightly over 2/1 .. 2.01 on Betfair to be precise

JonnyM

jordan just scored. Japan are now @ 7/2 :pac:

opr

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

I had a look at bet365, Ladbrokes and Betfair and it came out slightly over 2/1 .. 2.01 on Betfair to be precise

Currently 3.25 with BetVictor and 188bet. 3.30 with Pinnacle.

Opr

inforfun

JonnyM wrote: »

jordan just scored. Japan are now @ 7/2 :pac:

There is a live thread here

PurpleSt4in

2-1 Georgia, 1-1 Bulgaria, 2-2 Italy, 0-0 Montenegro, 0-1 France, 1-6 Germany
3-1 Andorra, 2-3 Russia, 2-1 Macedonia, 0-0 Slovakia, 2-1 Armenia, 1-1 Estonia

Our home performances under Trap in competitive fixtures; against teams of the same ilk as Austria, at home, we tend to draw.

Hulk Hands

squirrelohara wrote: »

Paddys special:
Holland, Belgium and England 9/4.
With Holland and Belgium at home expecting easy wins, is it worth taking this price as it seems to be down to England who are 10/11 to win the game.
Just wondering what ye thought of it.

It's on the line. I.e, you are getting no real advantage from the market by placing it, but are at no real disadvantage either. If you fancy it, fire away.


Today i'll be laying Portugal at 3/10, who can't be trusted at all at that price on current form. I'll also be laying Argentina at 5/6, due purely to the altitude they're playing at, and that not being factored fully into the price. I may lay Holland also, as Romania aren't complete slouches and Holland are hardly the most trustworthy.

On the backing side, I actually think Ireland aren't bad value at 6/4. I'm hoping this news of a rift in the Spain camp leaks fully, meaning we may see 13/8 later which is certainly value. I also wouldn't put anyone off an underrated Isreal side at 7/5 away to Northern Ireland.

JonnyM

JonnyM wrote: »

Japan vs Jordan over 2.5 goals 11/10

http://www.latinospost.com/articles/15207/20130325/world-cup-2014-qualifiers-afc-jordan-vs-japan-live-score.htm

Japan beat Jordan in the reverse fixture 6-0 and if Japan win they will qualify for the world cup finals. Im sure Jordan dont want to concede so many again but i think there are goals in this.

In with time to spare :cool:

Bertser

I've gone for Serbia, Netherlands, Croatia, Argentina and Belgium tonight, fiver returns just over €36.

GK1001

Thinking of emptying the account on Holland tonight at 1/3...huge bet and wouldn't be able to watch it...I'll leave it till 6 and see if I build up the head of steam required

PunterAssist

Netherlands Win and Over 2.5 goals @ 1.95 (Bet365)

eh i dunno

Belgium -1 Holland -1 at just over 2/1

MrMischief

Big stake on Belgium/Holland double @ 1.54


Small stake on the following treble for a bit of interest and seems decent value based on form.

Israel away to Northern Ireland
Serbia home to Scotland
Croatia away to Wales

6.74 on Betfair

redarmy

Scotland's World Cup qualifier in Serbia faces pitch inspection at 5..:)

Double of

France-Spain BTTS 10/11
Montenegro-England BTTS evens

Might throw in Belgium -1 for a treble, haven't decided yet.

As an outside treble I'm going with:

Croatia(-1) 7/5
Serbia(-1) 7/4
Israel 7/5

Probably not far off 20/1

electrobanana

Gone for this treble for tonight

Spain 13/10
Columbia 6/5
Uruguay 11/5

20 pays 320 on pp

Lasagna Diarra

I've gone big on Under 3.5 in Estonia vs Andorra @ 1.33 - it's almost a banker imo

The games between Estonia and smaller countries always go under 3.5, plus Andorra seem to have improved their defense, only 3 goals conceded away to Holland, 2 at home vs Turkey...

redarmy

Enhanced Price Specials....pp
Enhanced Special
Holland, England, and Belgium to win on Tuesday
9/4
Wayne Rooney to score anytime and England to win
3/1
Shane Long to score anytime and Rep of Ireland to win
4/1
Gilles Simon, Richard Gasquet, Serena Williams and J-W Tsonga all to win
5/1
Rep of Ireland, Serbia and Spain all to win
8/1...

inforfun

CriticEyes wrote: »

Argentina 4/5 away to Bolivia. hmmmmmmm...........

inforfun wrote: »

They (Bolivia) could win there.
Try to find out where they play, some stadiums are above 3500m and everybody will struggle after 60 mins.
But i think i remember there has been a restriction since a few years that they cant play above 3500m

You can have a look at how bolivian teams perform in the Copa Libertadores at home compared to away and see what altitude can do to a team.

Paully D wrote: »

It's a very tempting price but I don't like backing teams playing away at altitude.

Look at the difference in Boliva's home and away form. Unbeaten in their last 6 at home, they haven't won in 27 games away.

Found a funny on this match.

Match is played at 3637 meters above sea level at stadium Hernando Siles.
Last time Bolivia - Argentina was played there was a WCQ on april 1st 2009.
Result: 6-1
For Bolivia.

And Uruguay got a pasting there as well end of last year: 4-1

Lord TSC

redarmy wrote: »

Enhanced Price Specials....pp
Enhanced Special
Holland, England, and Belgium to win on Tuesday
9/4

Was tempted to do this one anyway. This only continues that temptation. Not sure though...

UnknownSpecies

inforfun wrote: »

Found a funny on this match.

Match is played at 3637 meters above sea level at stadium Hernando Siles.
Last time Bolivia - Argentina was played there was a WCQ on april 1st 2009.
Result: 6-1
For Bolivia.

And Uruguay got a pasting there as well end of last year: 4-1

Don't think I'm the first to say it on this thread, but those high altitude matches can be a lottery. Fancied Argentina @ 4/5 but don't know if I'll bother with it.

grohlisagod

inforfun wrote: »

Found a funny on this match.

Match is played at 3637 meters above sea level at stadium Hernando Siles.
Last time Bolivia - Argentina was played there was a WCQ on april 1st 2009.
Result: 6-1
For Bolivia.

And Uruguay got a pasting there as well end of last year: 4-1

I remember watching a fair bit of that match. It was surreal seeing Mascherano and the likes completely overrun in midfield.

Personally I'd never bet against Bolivia or Ecuador when they're at home.

redarmy

Single To Win Wayne Rooney to score anytime and England to win @ 3/1
Enhanced Special
Rooney Wincast Treble To Win Holland @ 5/6
Handicap Betting(-1.0)
Holland v Romania
Croatia @ 8/11
Win-Draw-Win
Wales v Croatia
Belgium @ 2/9
Win-Draw-Win
Belgium v Macedonia went with this:) good luck all 2nite

Fanny Biscuit

Small acc for this evening.

Israel
Belgium
Germany -2
Albania
Ecuador

Tomhere

Gone with
Israel - Double Chance
Holland - to win
Ecuador - to win

Treble at 2.85 ( Bet365)