The Football Tips Thread IV

madma

gone for an Ireland win, I just find it good value @ 2.56. we should win, it wont be easy but if the lads play aswel as they did against Sweden we'll win

mailburner

went with no goalscorer in the irish game at 15/2 (skybet)

double of draw in the ire/aus france/spain games at 9.73/1 (skybet)

one pretty much made up from here

belgium-1
holland-1
israel dnb

slightly over 4/1

jebus84

plying it safe with Holland and Belgium after them hairy Japanese bastards earlier

GK1001

GK1001 wrote: »

Thinking of emptying the account on Holland tonight at 1/3...huge bet and wouldn't be able to watch it...I'll leave it till 6 and see if I build up the head of steam required

Couldn't do it..just went with 90
I've also put 50 on Ecuador at 3/5 later

FlawedGenius

England double chance 1/4
Ireland Austria under 3.5 1/4

Double pays 1.50

lump job

inforfun

Without doing much research more based on memory:

1 Yes Bolivia v Argentina
(Both Teams to Score) 26/03/2013 None 1.72 To Run
2 Yes Chile v Uruguay
(Both Teams to Score) 26/03/2013 None 1.72 To Run
3 Yes Northern Ireland v Israel
(Both Teams to Score) 26/03/2013 None 1.90 To Run
4 Yes France v Spain
(Both Teams to Score) 26/03/2013 None 1.90 To Run
5 Yes Montenegro v England
(Both Teams to Score) 26/03/2013 None 1.83 To Run

Works out at around @20

Kevwoody

Gone for a double tonight of BTTS,

England v Montenegro
France v Spain

Yes @ 3.8 pp

Juwwi

PP have over 9 corners at 1/1 does not seem a bit low.

The ref also looks strick enough over 40 ponts is 13/10
http://www.soccerway.com/referees/marijo-strahonja/44457/

I think I'll do the corners on its own and they have

over 9 corners card index over 40 pts 7/2

cruais

ireland
serbia
spain

to win 8/1

through a tenner on it

francie81

I think Over 2.5 in the Holland/Romania @4/5 is too good to miss have it in my accum.

eh i dunno

Ecuador @ 8/15
Win-Draw-Win
Ecuador v Paraguay
England @ evens
Win-Draw-Win
Montenegro v England
Poland @ 11/10
Handicap Betting(-5.0)
Poland v San Marino
Italy @ 2/9
Alternative Handicap(-1.0)
Malta v Italy
Ireland And Draw @ 3/10
Double Chance
Ireland v Austria
Germany @ 8/13
Alternative Handicap(-3.0)
Germany v Kazakhstan
Serbia @ 4/7
Win-Draw-Win
Serbia v Scotland
Algeria @ 1/3
Win-Draw-Win
Algeria v Benin
Denmark @ 4/6
Win-Draw-Win
Denmark v Bulgaria
Ukraine @ 1/7
Win-Draw-Win
Ukraine v Moldova

65/1 for the crack

Headshot

any team news in the france v spain match?

Courtesy Flush

Ireland dont have a good record against Austria so having a few quid on Austria @ 3.3

ben.schlomo

Eden Ben Basat(israel) at 5/2 anytime and Alex Tonev (bulgaria) 11/1 anytime, small singles on both.

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

I've gone big on Under 3.5 in Estonia vs Andorra @ 1.33 - it's almost a banker imo

The games between Estonia and smaller countries always go under 3.5, plus Andorra seem to have improved their defense, only 3 goals conceded away to Holland, 2 at home vs Turkey...

FT 2-0

Lasagna Diarra

Headshot wrote: »

any team news in the france v spain match?

Lloris - Jallet, Varane, Koscielny, Evra - Cabaye, Pogba, Matuidi - Valbuena, Benzema, Ribéry

Valdés - Arbeloa, Piqué, Sergio Ramos, Monreal - Xabi Alonso, Busquets, Xavi - Pedro, Villa, Iniesta

elefant

robbie1977 wrote: »

PP have over 9 corners at 1/1 does not seem a bit low.

The ref also looks strick enough over 40 ponts is 13/10
http://www.soccerway.com/referees/marijo-strahonja/44457/

I think I'll do the corners on its own and they have

over 9 corners card index over 40 pts 7/2

like the look of this!

eh i dunno

Mansfield Kidderminster double at evens

Juwwi

elefant wrote: »

like the look of this!

The same bet on bet365 works out at 2.36/1 so at least it looks value.

Lasagna Diarra

San Marino not to score
Germany-2
@ 1.31

PunterAssist

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Lloris - Jallet, Varane, Koscielny, Evra - Cabaye, Pogba, Matuidi - Valbuena, Benzema, Ribéry

Valdés - Arbeloa, Piqué, Sergio Ramos, Monreal - Xabi Alonso, Busquets, Xavi - Pedro, Villa, Iniesta

Big question marks over Pogba against the likes of Alonso, Busquets and Xavi but France will be counter attacking on the wings so from an offensive point of view his role will be diminished but I expect Spain to cut through the middle with ease tonight so the main battle that will play a big part in determining the outcome will be between Ribéry and Arbeloa. Could be worth looking into Arbeloa to be booked.

Ciaran_B

francie81 wrote: »

I think Over 2.5 in the Holland/Romania @4/5 is too good to miss have it in my accum.

Nice one. Cashed this out already.

Headshot

Ecuador v Paraguay

Gone for Caicedo to score anytime for the home team, he's on fire and scoring regularly for them 6/5

ben.schlomo

ben.schlomo wrote: »

Eden Ben Basat(israel) at 5/2 anytime and Alex Tonev (bulgaria) 11/1 anytime, small singles on both.

Boom and boo, happy with that.

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

Ecuador v Paraguay

Gone for Caicedo to score anytime for the home team, he's on fire and scoring regularly for them 6/5

booooooooooooooooom headshot :pac:

ben.schlomo

Headshot wrote: »

booooooooooooooooom headshot :pac:

Got greedy and doubled him with Suarez, im sure to regret, love Caicedo.

PunterAssist

PunterAssist wrote: »

Big question marks over Pogba against the likes of Alonso, Busquets and Xavi but France will be counter attacking on the wings so from an offensive point of view his role will be diminished but I expect Spain to cut through the middle with ease tonight so the main battle that will play a big part in determining the outcome will be between Ribéry and Arbeloa. Could be worth looking into Arbeloa to be booked.

Pogba sent off and Arbeloa booked. A Ribery goal in the last couple of minutes to get the clean sweep?

MrMischief

MrMischief wrote: »

Big stake on Belgium/Holland double @ 1.54


Small stake on the following treble for a bit of interest and seems decent value based on form.

Israel away to Northern Ireland
Serbia home to Scotland
Croatia away to Wales

6.74 on Betfair

Gutted with the Irish result but some consolation in the bulge on my Betfair account.

PunterAssist

PunterAssist wrote: »

Netherlands Win and Over 2.5 goals @ 1.95 (Bet365)

Netherlands 4-0

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

San Marino not to score
Germany-2
@ 1.31

Boom!

Shane St.

Shane St. wrote: »

No time for a write up today. Got this double from bettingzone, just over evens
Holland 3/10
Serbia 6/10
50 on that.
And 10r on Ireland Austria draw 9/4
England 20/23
works out at 5/1

Main bet won happy out

madma

madma wrote: »

gone for an Ireland win, I just find it good value @ 2.56. we should win, it wont be easy but if the lads play aswel as they did against Sweden we'll win

thank god for being able to trade! cashed out on 75mins for about 65-70% profit. would have been sick.. but im sick with the result anyways

UnknownSpecies

Had Ireland/Spain double @ 5/1, disgusted. Also hopped on the Belgium -1/Netherlands -1 double, disgusted. Must stay away from internationals.

P.Walnuts

madma wrote: »

thank god for being able to trade! cashed out on 75mins for about 65-70% profit. would have been sick.. but im sick with the result anyways

Same as myself except I only covered my stake with a Austria DC, still had a good night with the corners ( a pretty poor bet that was lucky to come off) and Holland.

Last minute goal leaves a sour taste though.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

double of draw in the ire/aus france/spain games at 9.73/1 (skybet)



belgium-1
holland-1
israel dnb

slightly over 4/1

I'll have to find a different sport to bet on

redarmy

redarmy wrote: »

Single To Win Wayne Rooney to score anytime and England to win @ 3/1
Enhanced Special
Rooney Wincast Treble To Win Holland @ 5/6
Handicap Betting(-1.0)
Holland v Romania
Croatia @ 8/11
Win-Draw-Win
Wales v Croatia
Belgium @ 2/9
Win-Draw-Win
Belgium v Macedonia went with this:) good luck all 2nite

feck england. but will take the treble ..:D

Headshot

Chile V Uruguay

I can see a few yellows and a possible sending off in this game . Both teams full of nutters.

madma

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Same as myself except I only covered my stake with a Austria DC, still had a good night with the corners ( a pretty poor bet that was lucky to come off) and Holland.

Last minute goal leaves a sour taste though.

I learned the hard way in the past to never stay in on the late stages.. its now wonder the bookies are rich I can only imagine how many punters go into a bookie and back a team without the option of any in-play trading. yeah internationals are a pain.. infact all football has gotten so hard to predict just gotta find good markets and do your homework and get luck of course

Paully D

Paully D wrote: »

Not much value around at all today, but a couple of bets I've looked at that people might be interested in:

Ecuador (4/7 Bet 365) vs Parguay:

Ecuador have a big advantage when playing at home due to the altitude, so much so they have won their last 10 games at home (in all competitions) and have only been beaten by an excellent young Colombia side since October 2010.

Also of interest is that Ecuador have won 8 of those last 10 homes games to nil.

Paraguay meanwhile have really struggled in qualification this year and prop up the table on 8 points. They did nick a point against an out of form Uruguay side the other night but have only won 1 game in 8 (in all competitions) on the road and that was against Guatemala.

Ecuador to win at 4/7 looks attractive and some may also be tempted by Ecuador to win to nil at 6/5, also with Bet 365.

Albania (5/6 188 Bet) vs Lithuania:

Note that this is a friendly.

I think Albania are good value at home here despite this being a friendly.

Albania have only lost 2 of their last 7 games at home and will be in good spirits after an excellent 1-0 win away to Norway at the weekend in a WCQ.

Lithuania meanwhile are absolutely shocking away from home, losing 14 of their last 18 away with their sole win in the last 14 away coming against Leichenstein.

Lithuania clearly suffer on the road and with Albania in such high spirits I think there's value to be had about the 5/6 price.

Czech Republic (10/9 Pinnacle) vs Armenia:

Whilst most people will remember Armenia for causing a lot of problems in Ireland's group last time out, this is a game where I think the Czech's are value.

Yes, Armenia are not a bad side, but they are missing 5 or 6 important players which has left the manager with no choice but to field inexperienced, second choice players. They also rarely keep clean sheets at home (1 in their last 7), so I would argue such an inexperienced team will struggle to cope if/when the Czech's score.

The Czech's welcome back Premier League players such as Rosicky and Cech for this one which should strengthen them significantly. They have also been pretty solid away from home in recent times, with only 1 defeat in 9 away, impressively beating Turkey 2-0 away from home most recently.

They are far from an excellent or even very good side, but I think they're worth a punt at that price against a team with so many players missing and a knack of conceding at least one goal a game.

Good luck all!

Full-time:

Ecuador 4-1 Paraguay
Albania 4-1 Lithuania
Armenia 0-3 Czech Republic

Hopefully someone got on these anyway.

In what sums up my last few weeks I had a bet on Japan in the early kick off at 8/13 for interest instead of backing these first which knocked me off for the day :rolleyes:

That's when you know it's time to take a break :pac:

opr

madma wrote: »

I learned the hard way in the past to never stay in on the late stages.. its now wonder the bookies are rich I can only imagine how many punters go into a bookie and back a team without the option of any in-play trading. yeah internationals are a pain.. infact all football has gotten so hard to predict just gotta find good markets and do your homework and get luck of course

While those last minute goals can be a killer, trading in play isn't a smart move for most. Think of it this way. You put all that time and effort in coming up with a selection which you think represents value, you then trade when this selection is winning. This is often at odds with whether it's a good trade and often you're giving value away. Most people who trade in play would make more/lose less money in the long term if they just let all their bets run.

Opr

PunterAssist

opr wrote: »

While those last minute goals can be a killer, trading in play isn't a smart move for most. Think of it this way. You put all that time and effort in coming up with a selection which you think represents value, you then trade when this selection is winning. This is often at odds with whether it's a good trade and often you're giving value away. Most people who trade in play would make more/lose less money in the long term if they just let all their bets run.

Opr

You are not factoring in that most people bet too high a percentage of their bankroll which turns a bet with a positive expectation into a long term losing proposition so for these people reducing their liability in play could work out well in the long run.

opr

PunterAssist wrote: »

You are not factoring in that most people bet too high a percentage of their bankroll which turns a bet with a positive expectation into a long term losing proposition so for these people reducing their liability in play could work out well in the long run.

Betting outside your bankroll does not turn a bet with a positive expectation into a long term losing proposition. Either a bet has a positive expectation or a negative expectation. Reducing you're exposure will not effect this. I think you're talking about risk of ruin which a completely different topic.

Opr

madma

opr wrote: »

While those last minute goals can be a killer, trading in play isn't a smart move for most. Think of it this way. You put all that time and effort in coming up with a selection which you think represents value, you then trade when this selection is winning. This is often at odds with whether it's a good trade and often you're giving value away. Most people who trade in play would make more/lose less money in the long term if they just let all their bets run.

Opr

the above poster explained a point..

Not at all, if I I did that bet for instance in a regular bookies, the bookie has the edge on 2 of the 3 outcomes. stats have shown in the long run that if you trade out of a winning bet with 20mins to go or at half time or whenever - you will win long term. this is of course if the team is only winning by 1 goal like Ireland being 2-1 up, so instead of losing my stake in the last minute I was able not only get my stake back but I got 65-70% profit of what I could have won if Ireland won. but they didn't so it was a loss. add to this that its guaranteed and I didn't have to sit on the edge of my seat for the last 15/20 mins sweating like the majority of punters. infact I think its mad that people don't use a trading site, too many positives from it

for instance I know a guy who has been able to make good money from sports trading, the majority of his bets end up losing but because of inplay trading they turn out to be profit. if you look at stats of teams that say take the lead alot but draw or lose alot too you can back them then cash out when their winning for profit. that just an example.

the other good option is laying. you can be the bookie but this would require a decent bankroll

it doesn't always go to plan. you could back a team to win and if all doesn't go to plan and its still 0-0 after a while and you cut half your losses for instance and trade out and then your team ends up winning etc but i find being dicplined works for long term - ie. have a certain time to trade in and out of bets and stick to it

the main problem with all this is you've got to be watching whatever your betting on in-play!

opr

I'll try to be nice but to honest there is so much rubbish in the above post it would take weeks to reply properly.

The bookie has the edge on 2 of the 3 outcomes?

What does that even mean. That they can win with two outcomes while you can only win with one? Eh that is built into the price you back your selection at.

Of course if you trade out of a bet with 20 minutes to go it will show a profit. You're winning at the time of the trade. What are you expecting it to show? My point is this and please try and think through what I'm saying. Lets say by laying out of 1000 winning bets at the time you make an overall profit of €10k. I'm saying that if you never traded out of any of these bets that your overall profit would be higher that than €10k. Yes you will get single games when you will get caught with a last minute winner but overall in the long term by never trading you would have made more profit. The reason is that most people trade blind. They trade for the sake of trading and often that trade has a negative expectation.

The anecdotal story of the guy you know while nice proves nothing and actually that kind of thinking is preposterous. My next door neighbour has won a load of money buying scratch cards but it doesn't mean I'm going to buy them.

Opr

jebus84

jebus84 wrote: »

plying it safe with Holland and Belgium after them hairy Japanese bastards earlier

thank **** i stayed away from england

P.Walnuts

PunterAssist wrote: »

You are not factoring in that most people bet too high a percentage of their bankroll which turns a bet with a positive expectation into a long term losing proposition so for these people reducing their liability in play could work out well in the long run.

What should 1 unit be as a % of your bankroll?

PunterAssist

P.Walnuts wrote: »

What should 1 unit be as a % of your bankroll?

How long is a piece of string...


Some peoples write their max bet as 5 points and others write it as 10 points and they could be the same percentage.

If someones bankroll is €100 and it can be easily replaced 1 point could be a higher percentage than someone whose bankroll is €10,000.

When people give a number of points bet it is usually to keep track for a betting log.

If you see someone stake 7/10 for example that would be a measure of their confidence.

PunterAssist

opr wrote: »

Betting outside your bankroll does not turn a bet with a positive expectation into a long term losing proposition. Either a bet has a positive expectation or a negative expectation. Reducing you're exposure will not effect this. I think you're talking about risk of ruin which a completely different topic.

Opr

I don't know what you mean by 'betting outside their bankroll'.

By betting too much and turning a positive expectation bet into a long term losing proposition I mean they bet more than a full kelly criterion percentage.


There is no way to say for sure if trading out is the best option as it is completely down to each individuals betting history and to make a fair statement you would need to analyse at least a thousand of their bets to get a reliable sample size.

Shane St.

Come on boys lets get this thread back on track

Bertser

Bertser wrote: »

I've gone for Serbia, Netherlands, Croatia, Argentina and Belgium tonight, fiver returns just over €36.

Knew it should've been Israel instead of Argentina