The Football Tips Thread IV

inforfun

inforfun wrote: »

Wednesday evening at 22.30 in Chile

Union Espanola - U de Chile

Going on the home win @2.87/DNB @1.97

First of all because Union Espanola had the better start of the season.
Second and the most important reason: This
Not less than 6 U de Chile players are in the Chile squad to face Uruguay (hello card bet!!) tomorrow evening.
3 of them played on friday against Peru so they are not all starters for Chile.

Might have gone unnoticed in all the internationals.

Bateman

madma wrote: »

the other good option is laying. you can be the bookie but this would require a decent bankroll

It doesn't if [like any betting habit] you pick your selections carefully and are able to make money in the long run. I layed England at 1.33 last night when they were 1-0 up. No guarantee it would be a winner obviously, but laying odds-on shots doesn't require a massive bankroll.

Avfctom

For friday evening im on

Crystal palace to beat birmingham city
Leicster to beat millwall
PSG to beat montpellier

Pays around 7/2 thinking of going big on this i usually avoid championship like the plague as its unpredictable but coming towards the buisness end of the season and crystal palace pushing for automatic promotion and Leicester the play offs i think both will do the buisness and im aware PSG have a big champions league game against barcelona on tuesday after this game but ibra is banned for that game so will more than likely start this game and expect him to be the difference against an inconsistent montpellier side

So taking all into account im tempted to bet £100 at 7/2

Any opinions welcome

Lasagna Diarra

Avfctom wrote: »

For friday evening im on

Crystal palace to beat birmingham city
Leicster to beat millwall
PSG to beat montpellier

Pays around 7/2 thinking of going big on this i usually avoid championship like the plague as its unpredictable but coming towards the buisness end of the season and crystal palace pushing for automatic promotion and Leicester the play offs i think both will do the buisness and im aware PSG have a big champions league game against barcelona on tuesday after this game but ibra is banned for that game so will more than likely start this game and expect him to be the difference against an inconsistent montpellier side

So taking all into account im tempted to bet £100 at 7/2

Any opinions welcome

Ibra can play in the first leg vs Barcelona, they've reduced his suspension. I would definitely not back PSG vs Montpellier, you can be 100% sure that most of the players will have the Barcelona game on their minds.

P.Walnuts

PunterAssist wrote: »

How long is a piece of string...


Some peoples write their max bet as 5 points and others write it as 10 points and they could be the same percentage.

If someones bankroll is €100 and it can be easily replaced 1 point could be a higher percentage than someone whose bankroll is €10,000.

When people give a number of points bet it is usually to keep track for a betting log.

If you see someone stake 7/10 for example that would be a measure of their confidence.

Sorry I don't mean how much a unit should be as that of course will depend on the punter.

A couple of posts earlier you said people often stake too high a percentage of their bankroll....so if your bankroll is 100 euro, what should your average stake be?

Sorry lads , last post off topic-ish, just been wondering about this for a while!

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Sorry I don't mean how much a unit should be as that of course will depend on the punter.

A couple of posts earlier you said people often stake too high a percentage of their bankroll....so if your bankroll is 100 euro, what should your average stake be?

Sorry lads , last post off topic-ish, just been wondering about this for a while!

Depends on what you want out of it I suppose.

5% max bet is what alot of systems will tell you. so 5 is your max bet with a bankroll of 100.

Personally I find gambling is like any job, you get what you put into it.

Falconno4

Any chance of lads starting a new thread on the above and get back to what we all do best, actually football tipping ? :pac:

Avfctom

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Ibra can play in the first leg vs Barcelona, they've reduced his suspension. I would definitely not back PSG vs Montpellier, you can be 100% sure that most of the players will have the Barcelona game on their minds.

Thanks las thats a no bet for me on PSG then thank god i posted on here first il take the other two in a double

eh i dunno

Steven Fletcher and Lee Cattermole will both miss the rest of the Sunderland. Huge blow for Sunderland.

good news for the sunderland to go down backers

jebus84

with Steven Fletcher ruled out for the season it doesn't look good for Sunderland who will struggle to get goals looking at their next 5 fixtures its Man Utd,Chelsea,Newcastle,Aston Villa away and Everton at home and their last 3 games are Stoke ,Southampton and Spurs last day who will be pushing to get into the champions league, 3/1 to get relegated on PP

Lee Cattermole just announced his also out for the season also

ShamoBuc

jebus84 wrote: »

with Steven Fletcher ruled out for the season it doesn't look good for Sunderland who will struggle to get goals looking at their next 5 fixtures its Man Utd,Chelsea,Newcastle,Aston Villa away and Everton at home and their last 3 games are Stoke ,Southampton and Spurs last day who will be pushing to get into the champions league, 3/1 to get relegated on PP

Lee Cattermole just announced his also out for the season also

13/5 now on pp...

5/2 on Boylesports and Ladbrokes

Think I'll throw 20 on for interest.

MrMischief

Just for interest tonight.

Small stake on Macclesfield town away to Barrow @ 2.12 on Betfair.

Barrow 2nd from bottom and really need to win this game in hand but their home form has been shocking. Coming off the back of a good result and 3 points away to Dartford. Saying that, they have been terrible all season and have the worst goal difference in the league. In 18 games at home they have only scored 17 goals whilst conceding 28. Home record = Played : 18, Won 4 , Drawn 5 , Lost 9.

Macclesfield will be looking to keep the push for promotion and are unbeaten in their last four games. Away from home the have scored 30 goals whilst conceding 29. Away record = Played 18, Won 7, Drawn 6 , Lost 6.

Could go either way but a quiet night otherwise so here goes nothing...

PunterAssist

Avfctom wrote: »

For friday evening im on

Crystal palace to beat birmingham city
Leicster to beat millwall
PSG to beat montpellier

Pays around 7/2 thinking of going big on this i usually avoid championship like the plague as its unpredictable but coming towards the buisness end of the season and crystal palace pushing for automatic promotion and Leicester the play offs i think both will do the buisness and im aware PSG have a big champions league game against barcelona on tuesday after this game but ibra is banned for that game so will more than likely start this game and expect him to be the difference against an inconsistent montpellier side

So taking all into account im tempted to bet £100 at 7/2

Any opinions welcome

I'm looking at both teams to score in the Crystal palace Birmingham City match. Crystal Palace to score 2 or more goals is similarly priced to Crystal Palace to win and holds more appeal for me.

Avfctom

PunterAssist wrote: »

I'm looking at both teams to score in the Crystal palace Birmingham City match. Crystal Palace to score 2 or more goals is similarly priced to Crystal Palace to win and holds more appeal for me.

Blues have been shocking all year think it will be comfortable for palace no bias being a villa boy where moneys concerned i use my head not my heart lol

FatRat

This is purely opinion and estimations by me but I think its fairly accurate and gives positive and negative outlooks on backing Sunderland for relegation. At the moment it looks as if reading and qpr are dead and buried , if qpr manage to stay up brilliant because that's another opening for a team to be relegated. But the 3rd relegation spot is between villa, Sunderland and Wigan. Wigan are favourites to go down being 4 points behind Sunderland and 3 behind villa but I think this deficit can easily be made up by Wigan if they maintain this average form they have because their fixtures are much more favourable than sunderlands. Sunderland can be got at 3/1 from betfred and Wigan can be got at 11/10. Here are my very rough projections for the last few games for each team

Points:

Sunderland - 31
Aston Villa - 30
Wigan - 27



Sland:

Man u (h) - 0
Chelsea (a) - 0
Newcastle (a) - 0/1
Everton (h) - 0/1
Aston Villa (a) - 1/3
Stoke (h) - 1/3
Southampton (h) - 0/1/3
Spurs (a) -0/1

Max potential - 12
Likely - 7
Unlikely least - 3

Villa:
Liverpool (h) - 0/1
Stoke (a) - 0/1/3
Fulham (h) - 1/3
Man u (a) - 0
Sunderland (h) - 1/3
Norwich (a) - 1/3
Chelsea (h) - 0/1
Wigan (a) - 0/1/3

Potential - 17
Likely - 9
Unlikely - 4

Wigan:
Norwich (h) - 1/3
QPR (a) - 0/1
Man city (a) - 0/1
West Ham (a) - 0/1/3
Spurs (h) - 0/1
West brom (a) - 0/1/3
Swansea (h) - 0/1/3
Arsenal (a) - 0/1
Villa (h) - 1/3

Potential - 19
Likely - 11
Unlikely - 3

Likeliness:
Wigan 9/11 points
Villa 9 points
Sland - 7 points

How I rate each team's current orm:
Villa - 7/10
Wigan - 5/10
Sland - 2/10

Sunderland at 3/1 now is great value simply because this will drop quickly over the next number of weeks. If Wigan win and sland lose at the weekend which is pretty likely, wigans odds will drift from 11/10 and sunderlands will drop ... This will be the case for the next 3 weeks imo. I cannot see sland picking up any points in their next 3 games, I can see 4 points for Wigan which would leave them level on points. At that stage wigan will have drifted enough that backing them to be relegated as a safety bet would be a very viable option.


This is all based on whether or not you believe Villa are safe. I think villa will have no problems staying up, that's why I'm doing this Sunderland/Wigan double of relegation bets. If neither of them get relegated somehow that's me f*cked :pac: but I'm confident that won't happen. And if it doesn't and I play it right by backing Wigan at the right time...... Worst case sceneario, I won't lose any money!

PunterAssist

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Sorry I don't mean how much a unit should be as that of course will depend on the punter.

A couple of posts earlier you said people often stake too high a percentage of their bankroll....so if your bankroll is 100 euro, what should your average stake be?

Sorry lads , last post off topic-ish, just been wondering about this for a while!

This will be the last time I reply as others want to keep this thread for tips only.

There is no answer to what you are asking.

Regarding your average stake are you betting on 3/1 horses or 4/7 football bets and in what proportion - the difference is massive.

Thats the same thing as asking me how much a house sold for without telling me which house you're asking about.

PunterAssist

Avfctom wrote: »

Blues have been shocking all year think it will be comfortable for palace no bias being a villa boy where moneys concerned i use my head not my heart lol

I agree but you don't seem to be delving into the stats too much.

Crystal Palace have kept 9 clean sheets from 38 champions matches.

Birmingham have failed to score in 7 from 38 championship matches (2 against watford).

Birmingham are odds on to score at least once and I wouldn't rule them out of scoring 2 or more.



Also Leicester have only won 1 from their last 10 matches and are best priced at 1.73 against a team who have lost 36% of their away matches this season - would rather be a layer than a backer at that price. Their current form is the polar opposite to their form at the start of the season... might want to double check if its the head or the heart you're using:D

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Juvisy double chance @ ~1.60 (Women's Champions League)

The odds on Juvisy have dropped from 5.00 to 2.95 so I did a lil bit of research...
- Juvisy won the first leg 1-0 in France
- in that game they had 11 shots on target, Goteborg had only 1
- Juvisy missed a penalty
I'm only taking double chance cuz a draw is enough for them to qualify for the semi final

Juvisy won 3-1

Avfctom

PunterAssist wrote: »

I agree but you don't seem to be delving into the stats too much.

Crystal Palace have kept 9 clean sheets from 38 champions matches.

Birmingham have failed to score in 7 from 38 championship matches (2 against watford).

Birmingham are odds on to score at least once and I wouldn't rule them out of scoring 2 or more.



Also Leicester have only won 1 from their last 10 matches and are best priced at 1.73 against a team who have lost 36% of their away matches this season - would rather be a layer than a backer at that price. Their current form is the polar opposite to their form at the start of the season... might want to double check if its the head or the heart you're using:D

The championship is a lottery stats dont really mean much in that league its at the buisness end of the season palace pushing for promtion blues safe but cant go up Leicester pushing for the play offs and very good at home millwall mid table and toothless going forward after selling there forwards i expect comfortable home wins

PunterAssist

I'll agree with you re Crystal Palace ... I'm liking the price on them to score 2 or more goals. This bit of banter produced a bet for me lineups pending.;)

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Avfctom wrote: »

The championship is a lottery stats dont really mean much in that league its at the buisness end of the season palace pushing for promtion blues safe but cant go up Leicester pushing for the play offs and very good at home millwall mid table and toothless going forward after selling there forwards i expect comfortable home wins

Birmingham are in a decent run of form of late, all three games you mentioned I was actually looking at and felt like they were good bets for draws

Avfctom

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Birmingham are in a decent run of form of late, all three games you mentioned I was actually looking at and felt like they were good bets for draws

Yh they have picked up a little but just get the feeling palace will have too much with zaha bolasie and murray who cant stop scoring and palace been strong at home all season just my opinion feeling pretty confident im more confident on palace than Leicester

P.Walnuts

Right looking for a decent bet to follow tonight.

Gateshead v Newport County

Both teams played tuesday and saturday before that. Tired legs

Newport expecting their 18 goal striker to be back from injury

Newport scored 38 and conceded 27 in 18 away games

Gateshead scored 25 and conceded 16 in 17 home games

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85?

Edit : BTTS @ 1.72 might be a little safer based purely on the goal stats. Overs is factoring in 3 games in 6 days

PurpleSt4in

Anyone thinking of backing against United/Chelsea in the Prem since they both face each other on Monday? Both playing awful opposition but still.

Colonialboy

PurpleSt4in wrote: »

Anyone thinking of backing against United/Chelsea in the Prem since they both face each other on Monday? Both playing awful opposition but still.

Sunderland are without Fletcher and Cattermole for the rest of the season.. but dont let that put you off, United always have a blip after the internationals break.

I was thinking the same about Utd.

Always a danger backing against them but I think Sunderland and the draw @ 13/10 might be worth a look.

I can see Fergie resting the big guns until Monday night.

Saying that, it'd be wise to see the teamsheets first.

GK1001

I'll be avoiding those two matches due to the match on Monday. Any results could come from them and I wouldn't necessarily be surprised.

Speaking of Monday... my big bet for this round of matches...I'm looking at Berbs anytime at 10/11. 3 in his last 3 and he'll be raring to go after the break (in as much as Berbs ever appears to be raring to go). He was first goalscorer in those 3 matches also but at 10/3 on Bet365 that's a little skinny for me

Speaking of which am I right in saying that 1st goalscorer odd in general have come down alot this year. I seem to recall you would be looking at 5's or 6's in general unless someone was on a really big hotstreak but now everyone (i.e. starting strikers) appears to be at 4's or less...maybe my memory is poor I dunno

Headshot

Yo Las whats the story with psg tomorrow?

FatRat

Empoli are 6/5 to beat Pro Vercelli tonight .... I think thats way too big. Good value there.

JoeCole26

Will any bookies be open tomorrow?

Lasagna Diarra

Headshot wrote: »

Yo Las whats the story with psg tomorrow?

Lavezzi will be rested and Matuidi will start, don't know about the others... If I were Ancelotti, I'd rest the entire team, the players will for sure have the Barca game on their minds. Cabella is back from Montpellier, it's great news for them cuz he's their best player imo.
If Douchez, Alex and/or Van der Wiel start, I'll take Montpellier to score @ 1.62.

FatRat

There's is also sooo much value in the Womanes Malmo vs Lyon game on at the moment... Lyon win pretty much every game they play, usually with 5 or more goals. They beat Malmo in the first leg 5-0, thats the only downside, it could hold them back from winning like that again in the 2nd leg. Still though, took over 3.5 at 2/1, Lyon to win and over 2.5 at 6/5 and Lyon -2 at 3/1.


just as I'm writing, Lyon go 1-0 up after 15 minutes! Still loads of value there lads, worth a look,.

Fitzcal

Sassuola 7/5 at home to second place Verona
Juve Stabia 10/11 at home Modena
Varese 11/10 at home to reggina
Singles and 1 treble for abit of interest

Lord TSC

PurpleSt4in wrote: »

Anyone thinking of backing against United/Chelsea in the Prem since they both face each other on Monday? Both playing awful opposition but still.

Chelsea will likely prioritise the league and Europe, so can see them playing a strong team on Saturday and their kids on Monday.

United will likely do the opposite, but even the second string team is pretty strong so should beat Sunderland...

Lasagna Diarra

Something interesting for Saturday:

Belchatow's last 4 games finished 0-0, and two of those nil-nils were vs Legia (1st) and Lech (2nd). They signed a Lithuanian GK who played the last 4 games... he's the main reason why they got those 0-0s, I saw the highlights of their last game and he's amazing. I remember him from when BATE played vs his former Lithuanian team and that keeper singlehandedly kept BATE at bay in the first leg. Belchatow's next game is vs Slask (4th).

0-0 @ 6.75
Under 1.5 @ 2.55
Personally I'm taking Under 2.5 @ 1.48 to be "safe".

Radonman

Two bet of interest for me tomorrow in the Championship
The already well discussed Crystal Palace game - over 2.5 goals @ 5/6 boyles, for a team like Palace whose last 5 home have gone over (Birmingham 3/5 away)i think its a great bet along with overs in the Watford v Burnley game @ 1/1 Boyles - Watford 5/5 at home overs averaging 2.9 goals per game and Burnley's away games are averaging 3.1 goals - also looking at the head to head stats on Soccerway out of their last 7 meeting 6 have gone over 2.5 (5 over 3.5:eek:) - gonna do the double and two in running singles after about 10mins or so:pac:

Headshot

Hey arent villa really poor from defending from corners?

Smithwicks Man

Chievo vs Milan
Balotelli wincast @ 2/1 with Paddypower.

Absolute gold. The man is on fire (10 in his last 8 for club and country)

As short as 11/10 with Bet365 and the next best price is 11/8. Large stake.

PunterAssist

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Chievo vs Milan
Balotelli wincast @ 2/1 with Paddypower.

Absolute gold. The man is on fire (10 in his last 8 for club and country)

As short as 11/10 with Bet365 and the next best price is 11/8. Large stake.

Chievo have lost 21% of their home league matches while conceding less than a goal a game and keeping a clean sheet in half of those matches.

Milan have won 35% of their away league matches while keeping 3 clean sheets against Sampdoria (10th), Genoa (17th) and Atalanta (16th).

Milan had 5 of their first team play in world cup qualifiers and others who traveled long distances with their national squads.

That being said Milan are the form team in Italy at the minute but what do you think of Balotelli to score anytime at 2.15 (BetVictor) instead?

Shane St.

Sunderland v Man United
This game is tricky to call as it is unclear what kind of side United will turn up. With the league all but sewn up and a tricky game away at Chelsea in the FA cup less than 48 hours after this game there is no doubt there will be massive changes to the United team. There is no question in my mind that the Chelsea game is the priority of the two games.
Sunderland are winless in 7 league games and were dealt a massive blow losing Steven Fletcher for possibly the rest of the season as well as Lee Cattermole. Fletcher's loss can't be overstated as he has accounted for a third of their league goals (11 of 33).
I think the best bet here is to go unders. Under 2.5 goals at 4/5 is one bet to consider for any multiple bets. Sunderland are one of the league's lowest scorers and they are now without their main goal source. United may suffer a bit from the expected wholesale changes to the team. In addition many of their players went on long international trips and there may be a bit of fatigue.
United have been winning games with the minimum of fuss lately. The unders has in fact collected in 4 of their last 5 league games, a sequence of games which has seen them keep 5 league clean sheets in a row. So while I expect goals to be at a premium here you do feel if there are goals they will be scored by United (Division's highest scorers). United to win with a clean sheet at 6/4 is another decent bet to consider.
Under 2.5 goals - 4/5 - Sunderland missing Fletcher, United expected to make lots of changes
Utd to win to nil - 6/4 - As mentioned Sunderland have goal scoring problems, bet has collected in Utd's last 5 league games

Man City v Newcastle
Mancini has conceded the title in the build up to this game. While I think he is been genuine this time around, he was saying the same thing last year and City began playing without pressure and eventually won the league as United crumbled. I can see City putting in a big performance tomorrow against Newcastle. Newcastle are very poor travelers, in fact only Reading (5) have won fewer points away from home in the Premier League this term than Newcastle United (8).
Vincent Kompany returned to action for Belgium in midweek and he should get the start here. I like the look of Man City to win to nil at 21/20. This bet has collected in 4 of their last 5 at the Etihad.
I also think backing City (-1) at 8/11 is a good bet. 6 of City's 10 home wins have been by at least two clear goals as well as their last 3. As already said with the title conceded they might play with a bit of freedom.
City to win to nil 21/20 - Collected in 4 of last 5 home games
CIty -1 - 8/11 - 6/10 home games have been by at least 2 clear goals. Newcastle don't travel well

Avfctom

Headshot wrote: »

Hey arent villa really poor from defending from corners?

Used to be but improved massively not conceded in 7 games from a corner since Ron vlaar been back much more solid and guzan started to command he's box

eh i dunno

DNB treble of Watford, Swindon and Brentford @ 2.1. All should win but going dnb to be safe

bradlente

Are PSG worth a look later on this evening?

They're missing Motta,But Marseille are without a couple of decent midfielders,Namely Estrada(19/3),Pitau(13/0) and Saihi(10/0).

Not that interested in the 1.65 going all the same.

Dio On The Doubles

I've backed AC to win this weekend but was a bit cautious about it. Chievo might be tricky at home although I think Milan will come through it with a win.

Anyone looking at Sporting Lisbon in the semi final tonight with Aston Villa in the Next gen series?. They're 10/11 to win. I don't know much about the Villa youth but Lisbon are the main force in that age group as far as i know?. Any advice appreciated.

mike65

Dio On The Doubles wrote: »

I've backed AC to win this weekend but was a bit cautious about it. Chievo might be tricky at home although I think Milan will come through it with a win.

Anyone looking at Sporting Lisbon in the semi final tonight with Aston Villa in the Next gen series?. They're 10/11 to win. I don't know much about the Villa youth but Lisbon are the main force in that age group as far as i know?. Any advice appreciated.

Villa thrashed Sporting in the group stage though that was their only loss, they have scored and conceded a lot of goals to get to this point. Harder game to call than you might think. I'd suggest twittering for the line ups or checking out supporters boards for Villa at least.

Dio On The Doubles

Cheers Mike,

I'll hold off on this til later so. Looking at the next gen website they seem to leak a good few goals alright. They bet Spurs 3 - 5 in the quarter finals. Villa seem to leak way fewer goals and topped their group, while Sporting came third in their group.

Thanks for the heads up.

shamrock55

Any ideas on todays championship matches i was thinking watford win at5/6

ShamoBuc

A lot of folks going with Palace today - I'm no different.
Gone for overs in the Palace, Blackburn and Watford games.
Also on Palace to score 2 or more.

Avfctom

Dio On The Doubles wrote: »

Cheers Mike,

I'll hold off on this til later so. Looking at the next gen website they seem to leak a good few goals alright. They bet Spurs 3 - 5 in the quarter finals. Villa seem to leak way fewer goals and topped their group, while Sporting came third in their group.

Thanks for the heads up.

As a villa fan iv seen abit of the side they are very good going forward but shaky at the back supposed to be a decent crowd going tonight for a game of this type

Il have a small flutter on villa win 23/10 over 2.5 over 3.5 both teams to score

The games live on eurosport for anyone interested

PunterAssist

Wilfried Zaha is suspended for Crystal Palace. He has played in 36 out of Crystal Palaces 38 league matches this season (second most playing time after the goalkeeper) scoring 6 goals and making 8 direct assists. He is a massive loss and his place in the squad will go to Stephen Dobbie (a loanee from Brighton). Reduced stakes on BTTS.