The Football Tips Thread IV

Smithwicks Man

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Edinson Cavani to be the Serie A top scorer is available at 9/2 on SkyBet. Dropped from 6/1 on Paddypower to 7/2 after his hat trick last night. Got on at 6/1 but will be staking more at 9/2 as I'm even more confident now. A double of Juventus and Cavani winner and top scorer is 11/2 with BetVictor upon request which also holds value.

The bookies had this one all wrong imo. Many have the second and third favourites as Jovetic (Support striker) and Pazzini (Useless) . Early goals for these two has interfered with the odds imo.

Cavani is leagues ahead of both of them with the only other two 3 strikers capable of scoring over 20 goals being:
1. Di Natale 14/1 (Quite possible and will look to lay Cavani using him if things go badly)

2. Diego Milito 9/1 (Same as Di Natale and may lay Cavani using him)

3. Alex Pato 49/1 Has the ability but won't play enough games. However, he'll play enough games to ensure Pazzini misses out on a few, thus completely ruling him out of the running.

Miroslav Klose is the other alternative but I don't think he'll clear the 20 goal mark as club goals have never been his specialty (Has an impressive record with Lazio though). He's available at best odds of 14/1.

Jovetic simply doesn't have the firepower or support to score regularly enough and Osvaldo won't clear 20 goals. Cavani also has more responsibility to score now that Lavezzi is gone and the man rarely gets injured.

It should take no more than 25 goals to win this one and I can see him doing it but more importantly, I can't see anybody else coming that close. All these other factors make 9/2 great odds.

300 euro on (60% of Bankroll)

What can I say lads... I called it! :pac:

Licking my lips but to be honest, I never thought for one second that he wasn't going to get it.

Whatever about counting chickens yadda yadda. I honestly think that he already has it won

magherakid

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

What can I say lads... I called it! :pac:

Licking my lips but to be honest, I never thought for one second that he wasn't going to get it.

Whatever about counting chickens yadda yadda. I honestly think that he already has it won

u do this with betvictor

BaneV26

Are the bookies closed Easter Sunday?

rossit

yes

Headshot

I fancy the corners in the pool match tomorrow

FatRat

Best odds on Sunderland have dropped below 2/1 at 7/4. While Wigan can be got at 2/1 on Betfair. Sunderland now favourites to be the 3rd team to go down. What do people think, will O'Neill being sacked help or worsen their chances of being relegated?

BaneV26

FatRat wrote: »

Best odds on Sunderland have dropped below 2/1 at 7/4. While Wigan can be got at 2/1 on Betfair. Sunderland now favourites to be the 3rd team to go down. What do people think, will O'Neill being sacked help or worsen their chances of being relegated?

Depends on who they bring in to replace him really.

Professional Griefer

Wasn't sure where to ask this and sorry for it being a bit off topic. Can I transfer money back from my PP account to my bank account? Or do I need to get a card, go down and take it out in person?

Avfctom

BaneV26 wrote: »

Depends on who they bring in to replace him really.

Personally think it works in the favour of those backing them to go down the whole squad is berift of confidence i cant see this helping now look at whos avaible

Brian mcdermott,mark hughes,alan curbishley,steve mclaren,alex mcleish,roberto di matteo

None of those have set the world alight and cant see doing any better apart from curbishley and mcleish none have experience of being in a relegation dogfight and surviving just think this decision condems them my biggest. Concern when taking this bet was the o neil factor now thats gone im tempted to lump on again

Villa play liverpool (h) stoke (a) fulham (h)
Sunderland play chelsea (a) newcastle(a) everton (h)

Before a crunch game at villa park with villa and sunderland playing each other with 1 point between the sides and those fixtures coming up i expect villa to be above sunderland come that game so that game will prove crucial

Also with the way stoke are going they could get dragged in on 34 points right now but seem to of been found out IMO if villa where to beat them next week things would get very interesting

Lord TSC

Headshot wrote: »

I fancy the corners in the pool match tomorrow

Was thinking this. I know people say Pool are good for corners, but how are Villa?

Avfctom

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

Was thinking this. I know people say Pool are good for corners, but how are Villa?

Depends if nzogbia starts

Radonman

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

Was thinking this. I know people say Pool are good for corners, but how are Villa?

http://www.simplesoccerstats.com/Console2.html

All you need to know is here

eh i dunno

2 bets today
Over 12 corners in the Villa game 11/10
Celtic/Koln wins @ 1.88
Happy Easter lads

magherakid

Celtic & over 2.5 goals 21/20

Shane St.

The hard work and profit was made yesterday. Just for interest today I'm going to have a smallish stake bet on Christian Benteke To Score And Aston Villa To Win at 11/2. He has been in excellent form since the turn of the year scoring 8 league goals in 2013. He also netted in the reverse fixture at Anfield.
Liverpool are either going to be very good (they have beaten several of the relegation teams away from home comfortably) but they are so inconsistent. And if the poor Liverpool show up that price at 11/2 is too good to turn down.

Rekop dog

6 from 9 Liverpool loses this season have been by greater than a goal, pretty profitable system backing their opponents in the -1 this season. On Villa -1 at 12's .

Radonman

Taking Liverpool (-2) on the corner handicap @ 5/6 - Would have preffered (-1) but looking at the Villa team they look pretty narrow so hopefully it works out that way. Both teams really need a win here for different reasons so i expect all out attacking and goals, 8/13 on the overs hold no appeal to me but will wait 10 - 15 mins in to have a wager on it hopefully. Both teams are 4/5 last 5 games over and Liverpool 5/5 away and Villa 3/5 at home so looks a solid bet

mailburner

Professional Griefer wrote: »

Wasn't sure where to ask this and sorry for it being a bit off topic. Can I transfer money back from my PP account to my bank account? Or do I need to get a card, go down and take it out in person?

You can transfer money back to the account you used in the
first place to make your deposit

PurpleSt4in

TBH I can't see where Sunderland are going to get a goal from in their last few games, let alone a win. When Sessegnon doesn't show up, they're in big trouble, and Graham hasn't managed a goal for them yet.

mailburner

I really cant for the life of me see sunderland finishing ahead of
either villa or wigan

whether the likes of stoke or norwich get involved is another thing
but draws are about all sunderland might manage between now
and the end of the season

frat

frat wrote: »

Villa/Liverpool over 2.5 goals. With Liverpool scoring freely at the moment (16 in last 5) and villas defence being so poor this season 1.7 is a must for me and will be having a large single on this. Will also double it up with unders in the united/Sunderland game. Only bets for the weekend!

Great start to the day!

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

I fancy the corners in the pool match tomorrow

another one bites the dust

Sykth

Took Villa/Liverpool Over 2.5 goals and Beneteke anytime goalscorer Thanks for the tips lads, and happy easter to you all!

Shane St.

Shane St. wrote: »

The hard work and profit was made yesterday. Just for interest today I'm going to have a smallish stake bet on Christian Benteke To Score And Aston Villa To Win at 11/2. He has been in excellent form since the turn of the year scoring 8 league goals in 2013. He also netted in the reverse fixture at Anfield.
Liverpool are either going to be very good (they have beaten several of the relegation teams away from home comfortably) but they are so inconsistent. And if the poor Liverpool show up that price at 11/2 is too good to turn down.

Should have layed it at HT again. Ah well still a cracking weekend. What we thinking in the FA cup 2mrw?

PunterAssist

Professional Griefer wrote: »

Wasn't sure where to ask this and sorry for it being a bit off topic. Can I transfer money back from my PP account to my bank account? Or do I need to get a card, go down and take it out in person?

If you plan on getting a loan/mortgage in the next couple of years it would be better to deal in cash with the cashcard and if you use other bookmakers then skrill is the job.

PunterAssist

Radonman wrote: »

http://www.simplesoccerstats.com/Console2.html

All you need to know is here

Thats a handy website to know. Thanks.

Fair play to the lad who owns that website - it seems to be used as a sample of his work to get other freelance data visualisation work.

Any other websites that present this information in a similar format?

Lasagna Diarra

The Carmarthen Town vs Airbus game has been pulled from most bookies, and the odds on Airbus have dropped from ~2.00 to ~1.73, so I did a bit of research.

From Airbus' website:

On Friday Airbus host fifth-placed Prestatyn Town (7.30pm) (they won 4-1) before making the long trip to sixth-placed Carmarthen Town on Monday (2.30pm).
A maximum return from the matches would leave Airbus at least four points clear of third-placed Bangor in the race for runners-up spot and automatic qualification to the Europa League.
"It's important we do get a good couple of results because if we do that will heap the pressure on Bangor who don't play the following week," Preece said.

Carmarthen have nothing to play for unlike Airbus... my only concern is that Carmarthen have a good record vs Airbus. Still I've gone for Airbus @ 1.72

Lasagna Diarra

Lille @ 1.67

Brest are without their 1st choice keeper who is by far their best player, Lille will win imo

F.J.

Seen a stat that in 5 of their last 7 home games against Sochaux Lyon have been winning at half time and full time.

Lyons home form of late hasn't been great won 2 drew 2 and lost 1 in their last 5 in the league.
Sochaux away formin last 5 is lost 3 and drew 2. They also have a few injuries going by Soccerway.

Best odds I have seen are 4/3 on Betfair.
What do people think?

Shane St.

Fulham v QPR
After the crushing defeat against Villa on the last match day things are looking extremely bleak for QPRs survival prospects. As things stand both QPR and Reading are anchored to the foot of the table on 23 points, 7 points behind the chasing pack. I'm stating the obvious here but a draw is no good here. QPR will have to go for the win. With that in mind I'm thinking this might be a high scoring affair.
QPR are certainly a more dangerous outfit away from home, where they often struggle to break teams down, and have scored twice in their last 2 away trips. They have in fact found the net in their last 5 games on their travels. Fulham are sitting comfortably in mid table and will look to build upon their impressive win away at Spurs last time out. They certainly have in Berbatov a player to hurt any space left by QPR as they look to win the game.
Given QPR's desperate situation I like the look of Over 3.5 goals at 12/5. This has collected in 2 of QPR's last 3 away games.
Another excellent looking bet is Berbatov to open the scoring at 10/3. This is a great price as he has in fact opened the scoring in his last 3 league games!
Berbatov to score 1st 10/3 - Has collected in Fulham's last 3 games
Over 3.5 goals 12/5 - QPR position increasingly desperate and they will have to take chances at the back.

Chelsea v Man Utd
These two teams meet at the Bridge in their rescheduled FA cup replay with both teams having less than 48 hours to prepare such is the fixture congestion for Chelsea. Utd were 2 nil up and cruising in the original tie when they fell apart in the second half, clearly feeling the effects of the devastating defeat to Madrid which preceded that tie.
I personally think United will win the tie as I feel they have a stronger squad and they were able to rest key personnel like Rio Ferdinand, Evra, Giggs, Rooney, Nani and Hernandez and still manage to win away at Sunderland while Rafa tried to rotate and they succumbed to defeat at Southampton.
United have an excellent recent record against Chelsea (Unbeaten in 8) and won the league game at the Bridge this season. They were also seconds from winning a Carling Cup tie against Chelsea at the Bridge only for an inexperienced Scott Wooton to give away a last minute penalty. However, I just feel united will be that little bit fresher and confident and I think the 15/8 for United to win is too good to turn down.
Having said that I do expect Chelsea to find the net. Both teams have scored in their last 7 meetings and it is no surprise to see both teams to score as short as 1/2. I think the better way to find value here is to back Eden Hazard to find the net at 11/4. He has come back into life in recent weeks following the ball boy scandal. It was his introduction in the original tie that turned the match around when he fired in a superb goal. He also gave a man of the match display as well as finding the net in his last start against West Ham. In addition he found the net in both of Belgiums recent World Cup qualifiers against Macedonia. He also found the net in the 90th minute of the above mentioned league cup tie.
United to win 15/8 - Were able to rest key personnel, excellent recent record against Chelsea
Hazard to score 11/4 - Including internationals has scored in his last 3 starts, aswell as finding the net in his last 2 games against Utd (including the original tie)
Both teams to score 1/2 - Collected in last 7 meetings, in which these sides have shared a staggering 31 goals (averaging nearly 4.5 goals per game)

mailburner

like your thinking there shane

berba wincast is what ive got my eye on 21/10 pp
might be bigger out there, havent looked
4/1 fgs also with pp (betvictor best 17/4)
10/3 pretty skinny for that


no thoughts on the other game but if utd are hitting nearly 2/1 then
it has to be taken
its a stupid price in fairness

Shane St.

mailburner wrote: »

like your thinking there shane

berba wincast is what ive got my eye on 21/10 pp
might be bigger out there, havent looked
4/1 fgs also with pp (betvictor best 17/4)
10/3 pretty skinny for that


no thoughts on the other game but if utd are hitting nearly 2/1 then
it has to be taken
its a stupid price in fairness

Yea sorry u can prob get better prices. Its just I do betting tips for my friends website and they have to use bet365 prices. Paddy power probably the best...

Hernandez wincast another to consider, has an excellent record against Chelsea. Theres a small chance he might not play though, wouldn't be surprised if Van persie plays again

magherakid

Shane St. wrote: »

Yea sorry u can prob get better prices. Its just I do betting tips for my friends website and they have to use bet365 prices. Paddy power probably the best...

Hernandez wincast another to consider, has an excellent record against Chelsea. Theres a small chance he might not play though, wouldn't be surprised if Van persie plays again

On Hernandez anytime, looks like he's starting "Javier will play against Chelsea on Monday because he's got a fantastic scoring record against them."

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Under 2.5 in BATE vs Dinamo Minsk @ 1.67

biggest bet in a while for me, I really think it'll be an underish game cuz:
- it's the 1st game of the season
- it's the Belarussian "clasico" and neither team will want to lose
- BATE usually score first then pass the ball around for the rest of the game
- The Dinamo Minsk GK is the former BATE keeper, he didn't leave BATE in good terms and I think he'll be eager to keep a clean sheet against his former team.
- the game will be played at a neutral venue
- the pitch looks like this today so it might be a bit frozen tomorrow - http://nn.by/image-cache/558214c347dd9b346a0c80e0d2f1fb5d_w600_h600_q95.jpg

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Going big on Under 2.5 in Sheriff vs Dacia (Moldovan league) tomorrow @ 1.55

the 2 best teams in Moldova... games between these 2 teams almost always go under 2.5 and often end as a draw.

Just have a look at their head 2 head stats: http://int.soccerway.com/matches/2013/03/31/moldova/divizia-naional/fc-sheriff-tiraspol/fc-dacia-chisinau/1459965/head2head/

Get in!!!

ben.schlomo

Sykth wrote: »

Took Villa/Liverpool Over 2.5 goals and Beneteke anytime goalscorer Thanks for the tips lads, and happy easter to you all!

You want here.....
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056553772&page=14

Sergio Garcia at 2s anytime looks good to me in the 6pm Spanish game. Diego Colotto too at 13/2, he has a goal against them last season and scored last week.

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Lille @ 1.67

Brest are without their 1st choice keeper who is by far their best player, Lille will win imo

Boom!

Lord TSC

LD, what percentage of your bank do you put on those sort of "safer" bets out of curiosity? You seem to have quite a bit of success with them...

magherakid

ben.schlomo wrote: »

You want here.....
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056553772&page=14

Sergio Garcia at 2s anytime looks good to me in the 6pm Spanish game. Diego Colotto too at 13/2, he has a goal against them last season and scored last week.

well in

Lasagna Diarra

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

LD, what percentage of your bank do you put on those sort of "safer" bets out of curiosity? You seem to have quite a bit of success with them...

I don't use percentages of my bank to calculate my stakes, I kinda have fixed stakes based on how confident I am about the bet coming in.. My staking system isn't great tbh, I don't put enough money on those "safer" bets and I do a lot of silly trebles/accums, so in the end I don't win as much as I could.

ben.schlomo

magherakid wrote: »

well in

Ya pity ive him doubled with Diego Costa later, if the rest of my days bets are anything to go by it will be a 1/2.

eh i dunno

Any views on A Madrid later lads? 4/6 a decent price? Won every home league game this season bar the last match. Is Soldado out for Valencia?
Thinking of doubling with Lyon 1/2 who are at home to Sochaux who seem to have a good few players out. Thoughts?

Threw them in a double @2.50

PEACEBROTHER

Any views on Madrid Match this evening ?
Is 4/6 too short against and decent Valencia side ?
Maybe over 2.5 @ 1/1 ????

Edit - Just seen post above and went for the double !!

Radonman

Athletico average 7 corners at home and Valencia average 7 away - Over 12 @ 11/10

Double evens shot
Lyon
Atletico over 5 corners

Radonman

Radonman wrote: »

Athletico average 7 corners at home and Valencia average 7 away - Over 12 @ 11/10:)

Double evens shot
Lyon:(
Atletico over 5 corners:)

Corners in but thanks for nothing Lyon

PurpleSt4in

Radonman wrote: »

Corners in but thanks for nothing Lyon

did you see Lisandro's miss at 1-1? Sickened

Radonman

PurpleSt4in wrote: »

did you see Lisandro's miss at 1-1? Sickened

A fecking concrete pillar would done better

Lasagna Diarra

PurpleSt4in wrote: »

did you see Lisandro's miss at 1-1? Sickened

He's been awful all season cuz he's unhappy at the club, the coach insists on playing him on the wing, which he hates, and he even stepped down as Lyon captain earlier this season.

bradlente

Liking some of the reasoning up on here for a Utd win tomorrow.I'll play it safe with DNB @2.1(11/10).

Melion

I like the look of Portsmouth at home to Tranmere tomorrow

Alpha Dog 1

United again for me tomorrow @ 9/5. Great price imo.