The Football Tips Thread IV

ShamoBuc

ShamoBuc wrote: »

Comtemplating taking Barca and Bayern-1.

Those team sheets scream Barca win for me.

Bayern are playing awesome attacking football and really are the team to beat I think. They will try to finish it tonight I reckon, as strong as Juve are, I cannot see past Bayern winning by 2 or 3.

Robbed in injury time.

Shane St.

Shane St. wrote: »

Biggest bet went on the unders in Juve-Bayern so a winner for the night.... Any1 watch the Juve-Bayern game. How did it go?

Ibra was 15/8 anytime on betfair for future reference.

inforfun

Shane St. wrote: »

Biggest bet went on the unders in Juve-Bayern so a winner for the night.... Any1 watch the Juve-Bayern game. How did it go?

You were lucky with your unders win. Bayern could/should have put this tie to bed with 3 or 4-0.

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

FWIW PSG drew 2-2 at home vs Barcelona in a pre season friendly

history repeated itself :eek:

mailburner

Shane St. wrote: »

Biggest bet went on the unders in Juve-Bayern so a winner for the night.... Any1 watch the Juve-Bayern game. How did it go?

two howlers by buffon is how it went but bayern couldve had a few more
we got away with it though

juve were very poor and rarely looked like scoring
i'll be glad to see the back of them to be honest

SteelyDanJalapeno

TiltedBrain wrote: »

couple of picks in Irish Premier League games tonight,

Limerick FC V Shamrock Rovers 19:45 GMT
Limerick FC +0.5 Asian H/Cap @ 1.975 4/10

Over 2.5 goals @ 2.15 2/10 :mad: - looks a little over priced due to recent results from both sides partly due to depleted squads and poor weather the last week or 2, but I think with some attacking players returning there's a good chance of goals.

St.Pats V Dundalk 19:45 GMT
St.Pats -.75 Asian H/Cap @ 1.875 5/10 :mad: - Can't see past Pats here, much better squad and should Dundalk's good away form this season.

Main pick wins,
2 losses thou not good enough

FatRat

FatRat wrote: »

I fancy a draw. Barcelona have been weak away from home lately.

Thought this bet was gone down the drain after the penalty!!! Thats the luckiest I've ever gotten ...

Shane St.

rarnes1 wrote: »

Ibra was 15/8 anytime on betfair for future reference.

Yea sorry as I've said before I do tips for my friends website and we have to take bet365 prices, so anything I put tips up there are probably better prices elsewhere

jebus84

jebus84 wrote: »

going for a draw in barca vs psg and bayern win ,double is 5/1

Headshot

And we thought barca defence couldnt get worse

Masch out for 6 weeks iirc

Could be good for the overs but anything else could be well dodgy

PunterAssist

PunterAssist wrote: »

In the barca match I can see PSG being very cautious in the opening half and not wanting concede first and they have a great goals conceded stat at home in the league of 0.5 goals per game with 68% clean sheets. Every man and his dog knows what to expect from Barcelona - they tire out their opponents by making them chase ghosts and score a few goals in the second half to add to what they scored in the first.

The stats:

In PSGs home Ligue 1 games the average time both of first goal scored and conceded is 50 minutes.

Their 15 minute window with the most goals scored is 75-90 mins (25.9%) - Barcelona 75-90mins is 22.2%

Barcelona have scored exactly half of their goals in each half.

Half with most goals - 2nd @ 2.15 (BetVictor)

Late goals win this in the end. Second leg will be interesting.

user2011

7/4 SJ for over 46 booking points in Madrid match looks big. Ref Moen from Norway last three European matches reads 8,5,6.

But saying that Madrid haven't had a home game go over and Gala have had one away which prob explains the high odds but the stakes are higher now and a weak scanny ref could be easily bullied : )

MonkstownHoop

user2011 wrote: »

7/4 SJ for over 46 booking points in Madrid match looks big. Ref Moen from Norway last three European matches reads 8,5,6.

But saying that Madrid haven't had a home game go over and Gala have had one away which prob explains the high odds but the stakes are higher now and a weak scanny ref could be easily bullied : )

Shane St.

Any1 else liking Burak Yilmaz at 3/1 anytime 2mrw?? This season's top scorer in the CL along with Ronaldo

PunterAssist

Shane St. wrote: »

Any1 else liking Burak Yilmaz at 3/1 anytime 2mrw?? This season's top scorer in the CL along with Ronaldo

I would rather wait for the reverse fixture and hopefully have Galatasaray chasing the game.

Shane St.

Sorry for going slightly OT but can any1 tell me what time Paddy Power shops close at??? It's usually 6 but with the clocks going forward and summer on the way they stay open later

frat

Shane St. wrote: »

Sorry for going slightly OT but can any1 tell me what time Paddy Power shops close at??? It's usually 6 but with the clocks going forward and summer on the way they stay open later

Pretty sure it's 6:30 by law unless there is evening racing in Ireland, although its been a while since I've been home in ireland so could be wrong! Used to love when the Friday evening Dundalk races were on.

Bateman

racing in Dundalk tonight so probably be open late

alfalion

Any else think this bet is like printing money ( galatasaray +2 in the hcap betting 7/4

BaneV26

alfalion wrote: »

Any else think this bet is like printing money ( galatasaray +2 in the hcap betting 7/4

No, I can easily see them losing by 2 or more.

alfalion

BaneV26 wrote: »

No, I can easily see them losing by 2 or more.

Yeh but for that bet to lose real would have to win 3-0 more with out response. Or 4-1 if galatasaray score

user2011

alfalion wrote: »

Yeh but for that bet to lose real would have to win 3-0 more with out response. Or 4-1 if galatasaray score

Is it Asian or european? If its European they just need to win by two if its Asian then yeah they need to win by three.

Asian if Madrid win by two you get your money back

European if Madrid win by two you lose.

First part not so clear lol hope that helps

TG860

alfalion wrote: »

Any else think this bet is like printing money ( galatasaray +2 in the hcap betting 7/4

Given the Champions League is Real's sole objective at this stage, and they've rested players for this game whilst Galatasaray have not, I'd say messing around with handicaps against them is playing with fire..certainly not printing money!

alfalion

user2011 wrote: »

Is it Asian or european? If its European they just need to win by two if its Asian then yeah they need to win by three.

Just normal so yeh u are prob right , Asian is evens might be a better bet thanks

Shane St.

Benfica v Newcastle
Benfica are understandable favorites in this quarter final clash against the Magpies at 1/2. The Portuguese outfit are enjoying a fine campaign and are unbeaten in their league this season. When you examine their home record it will make for uncomfortable reading for Newcastle fans (winning 10 of the last 11 at the Estadio de luz and netting 14 goals in their last 3 home games).
Newcastle have set up extremely defensively away from home in Europe this season. They produced good defensive displays in the last 2 away KO rounds where they managed 0-0 draws against both Metalist and Anzhi) However I think this Benfica team is a cut above anything they have faced to this point. They beat Bayer Leverkusen home and away and did the same thing over Bordeaux.
Newcastle have been extremely poor in the Premier League away from home this season (losing 9 of the last 11) and were taken apart by a rampant Man City at the weekend. They are only 3 points clear of the relegation zone so you do wonder can Alan Pardew afford to prioritize this game over league survival with a game against a Fulham side in decent form at the weekend.
Newcastle have fitness concerns over several players. Massadio Haidara, Cheikh Tiote and Fabricio Coloccini could potentially be in contention for at least a place on the bench, but they remain doubts. Benfica are nearly at full strength.
I think taking everything into account getting involved with Benfica on the handicaps looks the best way forward.
Benfica -1 at 6/5 - Very strong at home, Newcastle missing players and have a big game at the weekend in the league.

Tottenham v Basel
After suffering a mini wobble in the league (losing to Liverpool and Fulham) Spurs bounced back in style at the weekend with a great win at Swansea where Gareth Bale produced an outstanding performance, setting up Jan Vertonghen with a superb lobbed pass and then finishing a great chance himself. I fancy Spurs to win this game, I think their mini wobble which included that hiding in the San Siro can be attributed in large to missing Aaron lennon. While not as prolific as Bale he gives the side excellent balance and they don't look the same team when both him and Bale are missing.
Spurs have won 4/5 home games in the competition while Basel have yet to win away. Again I'd be looking at Spurs on the handicaps and you can get Spurs (-1) at close to even money. They blew Inter away at home in the last round and I think they can beat this Basel side comfortably.
While Gareth Bale is rightly getting all the plaudits at the moment it might have gone unnoticed but Jan Vertonghen has been showing the form of a centre forward in the last month (4 goals in his last 5 games) including scoring in the last home tie of this competition. He is a very attacking centre forward as seen by his fantastic run and finish for his goal at Swansea at the weekend and he is a major threat from set pieces.
Tottenham (-1) at 20/21 - Very strong at home, Basel poor away
Jan Vertonghen anytime at 4/1 - 4 goals in his last 5 games

Chelsea v Rubin Kazan
I wonder will the effects of all these games begin to show on the Chelsea players. While they seen off a poor Bucharest side 3-1 in the last round they were very poor against Sparta Prague and needed a late Hazard goal to see them off and win the tie.
I don't know that much about Rubin but they are unbeaten in their 5 away games and they managed to beat the holders Atleti Madrid at their own ground so they must be a decent side. With that in mind and the possible fatigue Chelsea players might be experiencing I think Rubin +1 isn't the worst bet in the world
Rubin Kazan +1 at 8/5 - Unbeaten away from home in this season's competiton (Managed a draw at the San Siro and beat Atleti Madrid)

TG860

I'd go for cards in the Real Madrid v Galatasaray game tonight..

Real Madrid receive on average 2 yellow cards in every home game in La Liga.. and 2.6 yellows away.
For red cards.. it's 1 every 5 games for both home and away games.

You can get 11/8 for Madrid to get over 1.5 cards, which seems great value given how competitive the game will be.

In Turkey, Galatasaray games average 49 card points at home and 45.5 card points away.
In Spain, Real games average 62 card points at home and 59 card points away.

Over 4.5 cards is 6/4.

The referee for tonight has given over 4.5 cards in 4 of his last 5 matches.

P.Walnuts

TG860 wrote: »

I'd go for cards in the Real Madrid v Galatasaray game tonight..

Real Madrid receive on average 2 yellow cards in every home game in La Liga.. and 2.6 yellows away.
For red cards.. it's 1 every 5 games for both home and away games.

You can get 11/8 for Madrid to get over 1.5 cards, which seems great value given how competitive the game will be.

In Turkey, Galatasaray games average 49 card points at home and 45.5 card points away.
In Spain, Real games average 62 card points at home and 59 card points away.

Over 4.5 cards is 6/4.

The referee for tonight has given over 4.5 cards in 4 of his last 5 matches.

Dom RM have any on yellows going into this?

Over 1.5 cards looks good

mailburner

Shane St. wrote: »

Sorry for going slightly OT but can any1 tell me what time Paddy Power shops close at??? It's usually 6 but with the clocks going forward and summer on the way they stay open later

was in boyles yesterday and it came out over the speakers that they
are now open till 9.30 everynite
same must apply to pp so

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

TG860 wrote: »

Given the Champions League is Real's sole objective at this stage, and they've rested players for this game whilst Galatasaray have not, I'd say messing around with handicaps against them is playing with fire..certainly not printing money!

they did not rest anyone at the weekend.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

This may sound nuts but I quite fancy Galatasaray to give Real a good game tonight.

manual_man

Marco Reus fgs tempting, he did it in all 3 away cl group games

6/1 or thereabouts

FatRat

Malaga just are not good enough for Dortmund. They have done well in the CL, very well, but their league form and squad isn't good enough at all, so Dortmund at 13/10 looks nice. But more-so ... William Hill are doing a promotion, 3/1 for a Lewandowski wincast. I'll be backing that.

Nothing really stands out for me tonight though. It wont be a huge stake on that, and I can't seem to find anything else I like worth betting on. Everything for Madrid is too short, makes me wanna back Gala for something.

inforfun

manual_man wrote: »

Marco Reus fgs tempting, he did it in all 3 away cl group games

6/1 or thereabouts

Even better since Lewandowski might be out.

mailburner

manual_man wrote: »

Marco Reus fgs tempting, he did it in all 3 away cl group games

6/1 or thereabouts

dont fancy a thing tonite so a small stake on that

small stake on yilmaz anytime as 4s is just too big


bet365s anytime scorer market is a disgrace
2s yilmaz anytime
1/5 ron anytime yet 2/5 freely available
4/9 benzema yet evens can be got

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

bet365s anytime scorer market is a disgrace

just got a loyalty bonus from them
damn I wish there were more bookies like em :pac:

MonkstownHoop

mailburner wrote: »

just got a loyalty bonus from them
damn I wish there were more bookies like em :pac:

got mine too, gone now

went for dortmund ht/ft at 3/1 in boyles

manual_man

none for me

markc91

TG860 wrote: »

I'd go for cards in the Real Madrid v Galatasaray game tonight..

Real Madrid receive on average 2 yellow cards in every home game in La Liga.. and 2.6 yellows away.
For red cards.. it's 1 every 5 games for both home and away games.

You can get 11/8 for Madrid to get over 1.5 cards, which seems great value given how competitive the game will be.

In Turkey, Galatasaray games average 49 card points at home and 45.5 card points away.
In Spain, Real games average 62 card points at home and 59 card points away.

Over 4.5 cards is 6/4.

The referee for tonight has given over 4.5 cards in 4 of his last 5 matches.

What bookies has the over 1.5 madrid cards???

Headshot

Me love loyalty bonus

P.Walnuts

Headshot wrote: »

Me love loyalty bonus

Whats the story with it, do you get a mail saying you have it or do you check yourself?

Any idea what limit needs to be crossed to get it?

Headshot

you get a message in the bet365 site and then you have go to your email address to get the offer code

Not sure about limits, all i know it doesnt matter win or lose, you'll get the bonus

maybe ask their live help

Lasagna Diarra

Diego López; Essien, Varane, Sergio Ramos, Coentrao; Xabi Alonso, Khedira; Di María, Özil, Cristiano; Benzema

Muslera; Eboué, Dany, Semih, Riera; Altintop, Felipe Melo, Inan, Sneijder; Burak Yilmaz y Drogba.

inforfun

73x i got that email now since june 2011
While i do use bet365 the most. i never got anything for free from any other bookie.

I get free bet offers elsewhere but it is usually in the form of: we match your bet with a free bet of the same value.

Professional Griefer

Dortmund 13/10 on pp is tempting.

FatRat

Can someone explain the signup bonus to me with bet365?? I have 200 that I can put into the account from the off but that doesnt mean I'll get 200 free straight away does it? There's something about playing through 200 a few times then before you can.claim anything or something??


... Also does Lewandowski start?

Fonze07

Going big on Galatasaray to get over 2.5 cards at 4/5. Madrid will have lots of the ball tonight and 4/5 for over 2.5 cards for the Turkish team who regularly pick up a lot of cards seems great value

Lewandowski to score for Dortmund anytime 6/4

Fowler87

Taking the PP wincast special on Lewandowski @ 3/1 and covering it on him anytime @ 5/4 as Id expect him to score but Malaga are no pushovers at home. Should be a good game though:)

Fowler87

Fowler87 wrote: »

Taking the PP wincast special on Lewandowski @ 3/1 and covering it on him anytime @ 5/4 as Id expect him to score but Malaga are no pushovers at home. Should be a good game though:)

6/4 anytime with betfair

Fowler87

rarnes1 wrote: »

Lewandowski to score for Dortmund anytime 6/4

Boyles?