The Football Tips Thread IV

Fowler87

Fowler87 wrote: »

Boyles?

betfair

Fowler87

rarnes1 wrote: »

betfair

Good price. Must set up an account someday..

Headshot

Iv gone for card handicap of -1 Gala @ 20/21

PunterAssist

FatRat wrote: »

Can someone explain the signup bonus to me with bet365?? I have 200 that I can put into the account from the off but that doesnt mean I'll get 200 free straight away does it? There's something about playing through 200 a few times then before you can.claim anything or something??

PunterAssist wrote: »

Min odds 1.5 to count towards bonus withdrawal amount - Asian handicaps and Asian Goal Lines don't count.

You have to bet your initial deposit and bonus 3 times before you can withdraw your bonus.

E.G) Deposit €200 and immediately get another €200 as a bonus so that your balance reads €400, all of which is available to bet with from the start.

In order to withdraw your €200 bonus you must wager at least €1,200 (€400 x3).

I would advise you to wait until you can deposit the full €200 as your first deposit to get the full bonus.

I can get you an additional €25 on top of the €200 bonus if you private message me your email address.

eh i dunno

Nothing jumping out at me so a small bet on these
Real Madrid to win Over 11 corners Card Index:Over 40 pts @ 9/2

Malaga v Borussia Dortmund
Total Corners & Total Card Index
Over 10 Corners & Card Index Under 40 points @ 4/1

FatRat

PunterAssist wrote: »

I can get you an additional €25 on top of the €200 bonus if you private message me your email address.

Well that sounds like a lot of effort to claim the bonus :P Doubt I'd play through that much money. If I did it would take me a long long time. :pac: You can't withdraw the 200 ... but say I deposit 200 in, get the extra 200, can I withdraw the 200 I put in whenever I want? Or can I effectively make 0 withdrawals until I have went through 1,200? If thats the case I've no interest, but surely not? I'll take you up on that 25 when I decide to open account, or if I do decide to.


Decided to make a weird bet with william hill .... NOTHING to happen in the first 5 minutes of the Madrid/Gala game. I.e no corners, card, penalty or goal. 21/20.

FatRat

FatRat wrote: »

Decided to make a weird bet with william hill .... NOTHING to happen in the first 5 minutes of the Madrid/Gala game. I.e no corners, card, penalty or goal. 21/20.

Yes! haha These weird bets could be bankers.

PunterAssist

FatRat wrote: »

Well that sounds like a lot of effort to claim the bonus :P Doubt I'd play through that much money. If I did it would take me a long long time. :pac: You can't withdraw the 200 ... but say I deposit 200 in, get the extra 200, can I withdraw the 200 I put in whenever I want? Or can I effectively make 0 withdrawals until I have went through 1,200? If thats the case I've no interest, but surely not? I'll take you up on that 25 when I decide to open account, or if I do decide to.


Decided to make a weird bet with william hill .... NOTHING to happen in the first 5 minutes of the Madrid/Gala game. I.e no corners, card, penalty or goal. 21/20.

You will have to double check with Bet365 support however I believe if you make a withdrawal before betting 3(deposit + bonus) you lose the portion of your deposit that you have not met the wagering requirements for.

You would be surprised how quickly you would bet the full amount even at stakes of a tenner a bet.

TG860

markc91 wrote: »

What bookies has the over 1.5 madrid cards???

Apologies for the delay..
Bet365 have it.
It's only a pre-match bet though, they don't do it for in-play.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

they did not rest anyone at the weekend.

They only brought on Ozil,Di Maria and Khedira in the last 30 mins.
Also rested Alonso completely who is their key man in midfield and Varane.

Fonze07

Fonze07 wrote: »

Going big on Galatasaray to get over 2.5 cards at 4/5. Madrid will have lots of the ball tonight and 4/5 for over 2.5 cards for the Turkish team who regularly pick up a lot of cards seems great value

BOOM!!!!

TG860

TG860 wrote: »

I'd go for cards in the Real Madrid v Galatasaray game tonight..

Real Madrid receive on average 2 yellow cards in every home game in La Liga.. and 2.6 yellows away.
For red cards.. it's 1 every 5 games for both home and away games.

You can get 11/8 for Madrid to get over 1.5 cards, which seems great value given how competitive the game will be.

In Turkey, Galatasaray games average 49 card points at home and 45.5 card points away.
In Spain, Real games average 62 card points at home and 59 card points away.

Over 4.5 cards is 6/4.

The referee for tonight has given over 4.5 cards in 4 of his last 5 matches.

BOOM and BOOM

rossit

TG860 wrote: »

I'd go for cards in the Real Madrid v Galatasaray game tonight..

Real Madrid receive on average 2 yellow cards in every home game in La Liga.. and 2.6 yellows away.
For red cards.. it's 1 every 5 games for both home and away games.

You can get 11/8 for Madrid to get over 1.5 cards, which seems great value given how competitive the game will be.

In Turkey, Galatasaray games average 49 card points at home and 45.5 card points away.
In Spain, Real games average 62 card points at home and 59 card points away.

Over 4.5 cards is 6/4.

The referee for tonight has given over 4.5 cards in 4 of his last 5 matches.

nice one lad thanks

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

Iv gone for card handicap of -1 Gala @ 20/21

what pricks of a madrid team

they are up to their old tricks of getting cards on purpose

what an awful **** of a team

smurphy69

might not be the right section to post this in but does anyone know roughly when the card markets come out for matches?

user2011

user2011 wrote: »

7/4 SJ for over 46 booking points in Madrid match looks big. Ref Moen from Norway last three European matches reads 8,5,6.

But saying that Madrid haven't had a home game go over and Gala have had one away which prob explains the high odds but the stakes are higher now and a weak scanny ref could be easily bullied : )

Cash!!! It was a long burner as headshot said it was helped by under handed tactics by Madrid.

PunterAssist

Yilmaz misses the return leg.

user2011

Red card in Benfica match @ 7/2 French guys last 7 games in league Europe and WC qualifier's has produced 7 reds.

Headshot

I presume newcastle will defend like beavers tomorrow so im currently looking at Benfica to win the race to 9. They usually like their corners.

GK1001

PunterAssist wrote: »

You will have to double check with Bet365 support however I believe if you make a withdrawal before betting 3(deposit + bonus) you lose the portion of your deposit that you have not met the wagering requirements for.

You would be surprised how quickly you would bet the full amount even at stakes of a tenner a bet.

One more thing on the bet 365 bonuses. When you place your first bet by phone/tablet you get a 100% bonus up to a max of 50 euro.

Just in terms of playing through the initial amount, I opened an account back when Madrid and united played the 1st leg and I've got through it a couple of weeks ago so it doesn't take too long.

Have to say bet365 have really impressed me as a bookie. I don't see any others with as good bonuses out there and their specials on the united Madrid games were giving 50 euro free bets away

PunterAssist

Europa League - Benfica v Newcastle - Benfica To Win - 1.5 (Bet365)

IrishLad90

What do you think about a Chelsea, Spurs, Lazio, Benfica accumalator?

PunterAssist

IrishLad90 wrote: »

What do you think about a Chelsea, Spurs, Lazio, Benfica accumalator?

Basel keep things tight away and Tottenham don't appeal at 1.4.

Lazio have won 1 from their last 8 away matches (4 from 18) in all competitions. Fenerbahçe have lost just 1 from 10 Europa league matches.

Rubin Kazan's Europa League record is 6-2-1 and have conceded 0.86 goals/game in the Russian League - The price is about right on this one in my opinion if Chelsea put out a strong team so no bet.

That accumulator is 11.21 with Bet365 (9.96 Paddy Power) and at those odds would be a massive long term losing proposition.

inforfun

Not a fan of unders but Chelsea - Rubin Kazan has unders written all over it.

Rubin keeping lots of clean sheets away from home in the EL but cant score for ****.
Chelsea not exactly scoring a lot.
1-0/0-0/0-1 very much on the cards if you ask me.

Bateman

inforfun wrote: »

Not a fan of unders but Chelsea - Rubin Kazan has unders written all over it.

Rubin keeping lots of clean sheets away from home in the EL but cant score for ****.
Chelsea not exactly scoring a lot.
1-0/0-0/0-1 very much on the cards if you ask me.

Agreed and will be doing the same but will probably lay some off in-play.

Bateman

GK1001 wrote: »

One more thing on the bet 365 bonuses. When you place your first bet by phone/tablet you get a 100% bonus up to a max of 50 euro.

Just in terms of playing through the initial amount, I opened an account back when Madrid and united played the 1st leg and I've got through it a couple of weeks ago so it doesn't take too long.

Have to say bet365 have really impressed me as a bookie. I don't see any others with as good bonuses out there and their specials on the united Madrid games were giving 50 euro free bets away

Whatever you do don't win too much with them, they aren't called Bet £3.65 for nothing :pac:

DEVEREUX

Thinking about a fat stake on Chelsea/ Benfica double tonight. I hope Chelsea is the banker but torn between Benfica and Spurs. Any opinions?

DEVEREUX

On reflection :rolleyes: and a little research I think Benfica is my banker and Spurs to complete the double.

Bateman

I could just about think Benfica at 1.5 is fair but I couldn't be having Spurs at 1.4
How different is the Basel team to the one that put United out of the CL last season?
I know they are poor away from home but...

Headshot

Strongest v Sao Paulo

A must win for the home team so we should see a great match and a few goals hopefully.
Gone for goal - line over 3.00 @ 2.300

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Bateman wrote: »

I could just about think Benfica at 1.5 is fair but I couldn't be having Spurs at 1.4
How different is the Basel team to the one that put United out of the CL last season?
I know they are poor away from home but...

Neither Spurs or Benfica represent any value IMO.

Will be taking Overs in the Spurs game as I fancy Basel to nick on and Spurs to win and unders in Benfica. Newcastle have been great in the Europa this season and their foreigners are suited to playing this type of game.

Bateman

Benfica have a decent home record defensively I think, seem to remember backing unders (short enough price mind you) in their home game v Bordeaux

P.Walnuts

Considering most see Benfica as an unders game, they are 11/5 for the win and under 2.5 while 6/5 for the win and over 2.5

inforfun

Problem with overs in the Benfica game is that imo, it will need 3 benfica goals.
Can see them do that if they really want to but not sure if they go up 2-0, they will not play the match out focussing on not conceding in stead of scoring 1 more.

P.Walnuts

inforfun wrote: »

Problem with overs in the Benfica game is that imo, it will need 3 benfica goals.
Can see them do that if they really want to but not sure if they go up 2-0, they will not play the match out focussing on not conceding in stead of scoring 1 more.

Exactly my thinking

Thats why I think its strange that Benfica and overs is 6/5 while the unders is 11/5

Bateman

The 11/5 shot has only two possible outcomes that will win the bet, 1-0 and 2-0 to the home side

The 6/5 is shorter because 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, 4-0, 4-1, etc etc etc are all winners - unlikely as we all think those scorelines will be they aren't impossible.

P.Walnuts

Bateman wrote: »

The 11/5 shot has only two possible outcomes that will win the bet, 1-0 and 2-0 to the home side

The 6/5 is shorter because 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, 4-0, 4-1, etc etc etc are all winners - unlikely as we all think those scorelines will be they aren't impossible.

Ye I know but looking at it from a stats point of view, 3-1. 4-0 and 4-1 are very unlikely

so its looks like to me 1-0 or 2-0 @ 11/5

0-0, 0-1, 2-1 @ 6/5

GK1001

inforfun wrote: »

Not a fan of unders but Chelsea - Rubin Kazan has unders written all over it.

Rubin keeping lots of clean sheets away from home in the EL but cant score for ****.
Chelsea not exactly scoring a lot.
1-0/0-0/0-1 very much on the cards if you ask me.

This is the bet of the night for me. None of Rubins last 12 games have gone over and I expect Chelsea to be weary after their recent run of games. I can't see Rubin scoring either so I'm splitting my stake.

Mid size on Unders @ 7/10
Mid size on BTTS No bet @ 4/6
Also following someones post earlier and having a small e/w 1st GS on Verthongen @ 16/1. B365 have 1/3 odds on anytime for the e/w.

Bateman

I love backing unders (simply because I find it easier to win with than overs) but I am used to being against the crowd on it, not liking all this consensus!

Smithwicks Man

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Ye I know but looking at it from a stats point of view, 3-1. 4-0 and 4-1 are very unlikely

so its looks like to me 1-0 or 2-0 @ 11/5

0-0, 0-1, 2-1 @ 6/5 AND 1-1

If Newcastle score than the Benfica and unders bet is out the window. That's why the odds are so high. You need benfica to keep a clean sheet and score but not score more than 2. More awkward than it looks and I don't think there's much value in it.

Over 9 corners @ 5/6 on Paddypower looks solid considering the same odds are available for Over 10 corners elsewhere (Stanjames)

Benfica average 8.42 @ Home in the league
Newcastle average 3.63 away from home in the league.


Medium Stake

risenbass

Benifica to win to nil @5/4 might be a good shout.

P.Walnuts

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

If Newcastle score than the Benfica and unders bet is out the window. That's why the odds are so high. You need benfica to keep a clean sheet and score but not score more than 2. More awkward than it looks and I don't think there's much value in it.

Over 9 corners @ 5/6 on Paddypower looks solid considering the same odds are available for Over 10 corners elsewhere (Stanjames)

Benfica average 8.42 @ Home in the league
Newcastle average 3.63 away from home in the league.


Medium Stake

Ye i agree it is an awkward bet, wasn't really thinking of going for it, just hought the difference in odds was a bit high for the type of game thats expected.

Will probably be on corners myself, Benfica race to 7 @ 5/6 and 9 @ 12/5 both look decent....early goal for Benfica could kill it tho

Lasagna Diarra

A bit early but the odds will surely drop.

Bastia DNB @ 1.30 (vs Brest on Saturday) biggest bet ever for me
Bastia @ 1.80 is worth a try too but DNB is really "safe" imo

- Bastia are pretty strong at home and they always do well against the smaller teams
- they're in good form having won their last 2 games 4-1 (vs Lyon) and 4-3 away to Valenciennes (not easy to win there)
- Brest are in big crisis, their coach was sacked a few days ago and there's a conflict between their president and vice-president (basically Brest's sporting director will be the coach until the end of the season, but the vice-president hates him and doesn't want him to be the coach, so the president wants to fire his vice-president...) Brest are a mess right now
- The Brest GK - who is their best player imo - is out for this game
My only concern is that Brest are in the relegation zone and badly need points... they best they can hope for is a draw imo.

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

A bit early but the odds will surely drop.

Bastia DNB @ 1.30 (vs Brest on Saturday) biggest bet ever for me
Bastia @ 1.80 is worth a try too but DNB is really "safe" imo

- Bastia are pretty strong at home and they always do well against the smaller teams
- they're in good form having won their last 2 games 4-1 (vs Lyon) and 4-3 away to Valenciennes (not easy to win there)
- Brest are in big crisis, their coach was sacked a few days ago and there's a conflict between their president and vice-president (basically Brest's sporting director will be the coach until the end of the season, but the vice-president hates him and doesn't want him to be the coach, so the president wants to fire his vice-president...) Brest are a mess right now
- The Brest GK - who is their best player imo - is out for this game
My only concern is that Brest are in the relegation zone and badly need points... they best they can hope for is a draw imo.

Odds slightly better on betfair.

1.38 and 1.91

PunterAssist

odds on tottenham have drifted from 1.4 to 1.5
odds on chelsea have drifted from 1.5 to 1.62

I still don't see much value in either and the 1.67 on unders in chelsea v rubin kazan game is the fair price I would say.

Benfica now generally 1.44 from 1.5 and might hit 1.4

Blatter

rarnes1 wrote: »

Odds slightly better on betfair.

1.38 and 1.91

Even money on Bastia to win with Coral.

eh i dunno

On over 9 corners in benfica later 5/6

P.Walnuts

Benfica over 6.5 corners and under 3.5 goals double @ 2.56

Edit : race to 7 @ 10/11 instead of over 6.5 will increase it to 2.67

inforfun

Early one for tomorrow evening:

Feyenoord - VVV
Player to score 2 or more goals: Tonny Vilhena.

I know i tipped him last week to score any time @8.5 which didnt really happen.
Had also to do with the fact that Pelle wasnt playing who can keep the ball in possesion for midfielders to lay off to. His replacement Immers went off after 30 minutes which changed the lie up too much for Vilhena to be effective behind the CFWD

Tomorrow however, Pelle is back, Immers is injured which means Vilhena will play the full 90 minutes behind Pelle. First match they played this combo, Willem II away it worked really well, they found each other blindfolded. Vilhena scored 2.
Despite breaking into the first team at 17 as a somewhat holding midfielder, he always played attacking midfielder in the Feyenoord youth and for the U17's who were European champions 2x in a row with him scoring lots of goals. Some of you might remember this match

For tomorrow any time for him is set to @5.5

But.... 2 or more is @51 and against VVV that is worth a few euros for sure.

shteve

Benfica Over 6 Corners - Evens with PP

FatRat

I like the Fener and Lazio game for value tonight, looks like it's being over-looked on here. Fair enough it's a bit unpredictable, but I reckon both teams will score anyway and that's pretty big at evens! Lazio away form in the league has been beyond poor but they have scored in every Europa League away game this season except for 1 against Spurs. Fenerbahce aren't exactly known for home clean sheets either.


Something that has come in a lot for both teams is a scored draw.So my picks for this game are:
BTTS @Evens
BTTS + Draw @ 10/3
Correct score 1-1 @11/2