The Football Tips Thread IV

PunterAssist

Stats are for respective domestic leagues.

Benfica - Average corners for when playing at home - 8.4
Newcastle - Average corners against when playing away - 6.1

"Benfica Over 6 Corners" - Evens with PP - is there much value in this line or is it spot on?

How do ye go about pricing up the corners market?

---

An interesting bet from paddy p:

Benfica to win
Over 9 corners
Card Index:Under 40 points
Odds: 6.0

mailburner

torn between lumping bale anytime 1.95(bfair) bale wincast
or bale first

went for bale first 5/2 betfred
better available but double/treble odds for 2/3 sucked me in

backed him also 1st on bfair at a more respectable 4.4

my head says i should be lumping anytime though

TG860

PunterAssist wrote: »

Stats are for respective domestic leagues.

Benfica - Average corners for when playing at home - 8.4
Newcastle - Average corners against when playing away - 6.1

"Benfica Over 6 Corners" - Evens with PP - is there much value in this line or is it spot on?

How do ye go about pricing up the corners market?

I was thinking along the same lines..
Hard one to call but I reckon so long Benfica don't score early they should get there.

Benfica v Newcastle
I would look at corners, considering it will mostly be Newcastle sitting deep and trying to hold out against Benfica.
Benfica average 8.4 corners at home and total corners are 11.8 in home games.
Newcastle average 3.6 corners away from home and total corners are 9.7 overall in away games.
However a note of caution would be that typically in previous EL games, Benfica have usually been less prolific with corners.

Benfica (-3) corners at 21/20
Race to 7 corners Benfica 10/11

Tottenham v Basle

Phillip Degen to be booked @ 12/5 (Paddy Power)
He’s been booked in 5 out of 7 Europa League games and 7 of 14 Swiss games.
I’d fancy him to get booked against Spurs’ wide players.

mailburner

PunterAssist wrote: »

An interesting bet from paddy p:

Benfica to win
Over 9 corners
Card Index:Under 40 points
Odds: 6.0

following you on this
looks a bit of value and you've been doing
very well here

magherakid

Chelsea team to play Rubin Kazan: Cech; Azpilucueta, Luiz, Terry, Bertrand; Lampard, Ramires; Moses, Mata, Benayoun; Torres

Tottenham team to play Basle: Friedel; Naughton, Gallas, Vertonghen, Ekotto; Parker, Dembele; Lennon, Bale Holtby; Adebayor

Newcastle team to play Benfica: Krul; Simpson, Taylor, Yanga-Mbiwa, Santon; Perch, Cabaye; Marveuax, Sissoko, Gutierrez; Cisse

Headshot

Bit of a surprise to see Lima on the bench

I also did that bet earlier

Benfica to win the race to 9 corners

Lasagna Diarra

Torres starting for Chelsea, Rubin playing with a right back in midfield, and Rondon on the bench for them.

Under 2.5 @ 1.65 looks like the bet of the night.

Austria!

I can't believe the odds on Michu, Zabaleta and Gerrard for PFA team of the season

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-make-the-pfa-team-of-the-year

risenbass

I'm going with Basel over 20 points @8/13

Basel got 5 and 3 yellows in their last two away games in the EL as well as 2 red cards. I reckon they will be trying to keep the score down as much as possible here and with Bale and Lennon they should cover that tonight.

Blatter

Austria! wrote: »

I can't believe the odds on Michu, Zabaleta and Gerrard for PFA team of the season

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-make-the-pfa-team-of-the-year

Asmir Begovic too, I wouldn't be too sure de Gea will be voted keeper of the season. And there isn't really anybody else besides Mignolet, who probably won't get it.

P.Walnuts

Austria! wrote: »

I can't believe the odds on Michu, Zabaleta and Gerrard for PFA team of the season

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-make-the-pfa-team-of-the-year

Thing is if Michu is down as a striker, Suarez and RVP are certs so he might miss out...

Is the team always a 4-4-2?

Edit : Surely Rio Ferdinand is a lay @ 4/11!

Austria!

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Is the team always a 4-4-2?

Yes. Good point about Michu too

Smithwicks Man

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Ye i agree it is an awkward bet, wasn't really thinking of going for it, just hought the difference in odds was a bit high for the type of game thats expected.

Will probably be on corners myself, Benfica race to 7 @ 5/6 and 9 @ 12/5 both look decent....early goal for Benfica could kill it tho

You dodged a bullet there!

P.Walnuts

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

You dodged a bullet there!

Certainly did!

I doubled the corners with under 3.5, so the goal was a mixed blessing!

Smithwicks Man

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Certainly did!

I doubled the corners with under 3.5, so the goal was a mixed blessing!

True. On corners myself so glad of the goal but 1 in the first 20 odd minutes is disappointing

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

I presume newcastle will defend like beavers tomorrow so im currently looking at Benfica to win the race to 9. They usually like their corners.

Benfica take to corners like ducks take to water

get in

Smithwicks Man

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

If Newcastle score than the Benfica and unders bet is out the window. That's why the odds are so high. You need benfica to keep a clean sheet and score but not score more than 2. More awkward than it looks and I don't think there's much value in it.

Over 9 corners @ 5/6 on Paddypower looks solid considering the same odds are available for Over 10 corners elsewhere (Stanjames)

Benfica average 8.42 @ Home in the league
Newcastle average 3.63 away from home in the league.


Medium Stake

Simple enough, Benfica took care of it on their own

eh i dunno

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Simple enough, Benfica took care of it on their own

Cheers for the tip

shinkansen

Everton and Villa double at weekend, odds too high to say no.

Smithwicks Man

eh i dunno wrote: »

Cheers for the tip

Think it may have been mentioned by somebody before me (headshot?)

Paddypower had their odds wrong though.

shinkansen

well the odds dropped on everton since bales mishap, ding...

shinkansen

did this

07 Apr 2013 - Tottenham v Everton - Match Betting
Tip It
Everton @ 3.50
06 Apr 2013 - Stoke v Aston Villa - Match Betting
Tip It
Aston Villa @ 3.80
09 Apr 2013 - Borussia Dortmund v Malaga - To Qualify
Tip It
Borussia Dortmund @ 1.33
10 Apr 2013 - Barcelona v Paris Saint-Germain - To Qualify
Tip It
Barcelona @ 1.11
07 Apr 2013 - Olhanense v Benfica - Match Betting
Tip It
Benfica @ 1.28
06 Apr 2013 - Willem II v PSV Eindhoven - Match Betting
Tip It
PSV Eindhoven @ 1.25
05 Apr 2013 - Feyenoord v VVV Venlo - Match Betting
Tip It
Feyenoord @ 1.22
Stake : £40.00
Estimated Returns : £1548.14

salmon1

Gillingham v Torquay

Gillingham 4/6

Crystal Palace v Barnsley

Crystal Palace 4/5

Bournemouth v Notts County

Bournemouth 4/7

Kidderminster v Lincoln City

Kidderminster 4/9

Barrow v Mansfield

Mansfield 8/15

Bohemians v Derry City

Derry City 20/21

Cork City v U.C.D

Cork City 4/11

Finn Harps v Wexford Youths

Finn Harps 4/6

10E pays 463

Shane St.

Shane St. wrote: »

Benfica v Newcastle
Benfica are understandable favorites in this quarter final clash against the Magpies at 1/2. The Portuguese outfit are enjoying a fine campaign and are unbeaten in their league this season. When you examine their home record it will make for uncomfortable reading for Newcastle fans (winning 10 of the last 11 at the Estadio de luz and netting 14 goals in their last 3 home games).
Newcastle have set up extremely defensively away from home in Europe this season. They produced good defensive displays in the last 2 away KO rounds where they managed 0-0 draws against both Metalist and Anzhi) However I think this Benfica team is a cut above anything they have faced to this point. They beat Bayer Leverkusen home and away and did the same thing over Bordeaux.
Newcastle have been extremely poor in the Premier League away from home this season (losing 9 of the last 11) and were taken apart by a rampant Man City at the weekend. They are only 3 points clear of the relegation zone so you do wonder can Alan Pardew afford to prioritize this game over league survival with a game against a Fulham side in decent form at the weekend.
Newcastle have fitness concerns over several players. Massadio Haidara, Cheikh Tiote and Fabricio Coloccini could potentially be in contention for at least a place on the bench, but they remain doubts. Benfica are nearly at full strength.
I think taking everything into account getting involved with Benfica on the handicaps looks the best way forward.
Benfica -1 at 6/5 - Very strong at home, Newcastle missing players and have a big game at the weekend in the league.

Main bet wins... winner winner chicken dinner

FatRat

Copa games tonight could be worth a look.


I'm taking over 3.5 @7/4 in The Strongest game and BTTS in the Universidad game @ evens.

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

Strongest v Sao Paulo

A must win for the home team so we should see a great match and a few goals hopefully.
Gone for goal - line over 3.00 @ 2.300

lucky I did the goal line bet, stake returned

I never do over 3.5 goals anymore, why chance it just for an extra few euro?

PunterAssist

Bet365 have a market I just noticed:

"Team Performances" - basically betting on how many points a team gets...


Win the match = 25 pts
Draw the match = 10 pts
Each goal scored = 15 pts
Each corner gained and taken = 3 pts
Keep a clean sheet = 10 pts
Score before the 20th minute = 10 pts extra (maximum 10 points per team)
Each yellow or red card received = 5 pts and 15 pts deducted respectively (maximum 20 points per player)


An example is Liverpool over 90 points versus West Ham is 2.10


Anybody bet this market successfully?

GK1001

PunterAssist wrote: »

Bet365 have a market I just noticed:

"Team Performances" - basically betting on how many points a team gets...


Win the match = 25 pts
Draw the match = 10 pts
Each goal scored = 15 pts
Each corner gained and taken = 3 pts
Keep a clean sheet = 10 pts
Score before the 20th minute = 10 pts extra (maximum 10 points per team)
Each yellow or red card received = 5 pts and 15 pts deducted respectively (maximum 20 points per player)


An example is Liverpool over 90 points versus West Ham is 2.10


Anybody bet this market successfully?

I'd go to sportingindex or one of the other spreads sites to do this type of market. Doesn't appeal to me as a straight up bet, more of a trading opportunity and those sites are better for that in my opinion.

inforfun

Another Dutch match:

Almere City - Eindhoven
HW @1,7

Spectacular high considering Eindhoven is 0-4-9 for the season playing away.
At home not much better either.

Almere won their last 3 at home vs Cambuur, Telstar and Maastricht.

SteelyDanJalapeno

League Of Ireland Premier

Cork City - UC Dublin

Pick: Cork City Asian -1.25 Handicap
Odds: @ 1.900
Book: Bet365

Kick off: 19.45 GMT

=====================

Cork injuries/suspensions : Brian Lenihan, Kevin Murray, Neal Horgan

UCD injuries/suspensions : Robbie Benson, Mick Leahy and Dean Clarke

UCD are this season's whipping boys, they're a club that has been established as part of a college student side, this season in particular they look to lack any leadership They've conceded 16 goals in their last 5 games, including a 6 - 0 thrashing from Derry at home! UCD have kept one clean sheet in their last ten games against Cork City and have conceded 18 times.The Rebel Army have kept four clean sheets in the same period conceding nine.

Everything points to Cork going on to silence their critics and finally getting season off to a start. I can't see past a minimum Cork 2 - 0 win, but could easily be 4+.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Bohemians - Derry Both teams to score : yes @ 2.00
Bray Wanderers - St.Pats : Bray Wanderers +0.50 @ 2.075
Sligo - Shelbourne - Sligo win and over 2.5 @ 1.900 - Really like this one for saturday

And division 1

Finn Harps - Wexford Youths : Finn Harps -1 Asian Handicap @ 2.250 Wexford have been really poor this season, only getting results from the 2 other poor sides, travelling over 6 hours to this game should affect them even more, Finn Harps should clear this h/cap if not void

Vamos

magherakid

Port Vale v Burton
Tom Pope anytime 11/10

eh i dunno

Cork -1 11/10

PunterAssist

English Premier League - Liverpool v West Ham - Liverpool To Win and over 2.5 goals to be scored in match - 1.9 (Ladbrokes)

English Premier League - Chelsea v Sunderland - Chelsea To Win and over 2.5 goals to be scored in match - 2.0 (Ladbrokes)

English Premier League - Reading v Southampton - Both Teams To Score - 1.62 (Stan James)

English Championship - Crystal Palace v Barnsley - Over 2.5 Goals - 1.85 (Ladbrokes)

Spanish La Liga - Barcelona v Mallorca - Barcelona To Win and over 3.5 goals to be scored in the match - 2.05 (Bet365)

German Bundesliga - Bayer Leverkusen v Wolfsburg - Over 2.5 Goals - 1.67 (Stan James)

Italian Serie A - Juventus v Pescara - Juventus To Win and 3 or 4 total goals in the match - 2.4 (Paddy Power)

Dutch Eredivisie - Willem v PSV Eindhoven - Over 2.5 Goals - 1.4 (Bet365)

inforfun

inforfun wrote: »

Another Dutch match:

Almere City - Eindhoven
HW @1,7

Spectacular high considering Eindhoven is 0-4-9 for the season playing away.
At home not much better either.

Almere won their last 3 at home vs Cambuur, Telstar and Maastricht.

3-2 in the end, 2 late goals by Eindhoven (86' and injury time)

And lets not talk about Feyenoord/Vilhena.

magherakid

magherakid wrote: »

Port Vale v Burton
Tom Pope anytime 11/10

boom

got on the score sheet at last 5-0

Headshot

Im looking a double of Lambert to score anytime @13/10 and Benteke anytime @ 7/4

2 inform strikers. Makes sense

magherakid

Cliftonville v Crusaders
Semi-Final of the cup tomorrow all over Cliftonville at 11/10, Cliftonville beat Crusaders last week 3-1 at home, This match will be played at neutral ground the Oval.

Avfctom

Anyone else fancy reading to beat southampton think the odds are ridiculous 5/4 for southampton looks way to skinny they shouldunt be 5/4 to beat anyone away in the league and with nigel adkins playing hes former side in his first home game and at times reading been decent at home think il put my money on

Reading 2/1 £25
Reading win pavel pogbakniak to score anytime 7/1 £5
Over 3.5 goals 13/8 £20

mailburner

Avfctom wrote: »

Anyone else fancy reading to beat southampton think the odds are ridiculous 5/4 for southampton looks way to skinny they shouldunt be 5/4 to beat anyone away in the league and with nigel adkins playing hes former side in his first home game and at times reading been decent at home think il put my money on

Reading 2/1 £25
Reading win pavel pogbakniak to score anytime 7/1 £5
Over 3.5 goals 13/8 £20

Only bet i fancy tomorrow is lambert anytime 17/10 (betv)
scored against pool and chelsea last two so that looks
a great price to score against the bottom team who've
lost their last 6
soton have just beaten
pool and chelsea in their last two
This should be easy in comparison

You're a brave man backing them new manager or not
I can't have them myself unless soton have an off day and
it's hard to knock them only losing 3 of their last 14 games
I was tempted to take the 5/4 myself but lambert looks better value

inforfun

Considering Vitesse to win to nil @2.4

They play NAC who have problems enough scoring and will miss 2 attackers tomorrow, Schalk and Lurling.

Will take Malki (Roda) to score any time for sure @3.2 away to Twente. He mostly scores at home but these are great odds for a guy who scored 14 in 26.

Austria!

Avfctom wrote: »

Anyone else fancy reading to beat southampton

Not something I'd strongly advocate, but I did back Reading as well at 3.47 earlier. Best you can get is now is 3.4, which I take as a good sign.

user2011

magherakid wrote: »

Cliftonville v Crusaders
Semi-Final of the cup tomorrow all over Cliftonville at 11/10, Cliftonville beat Crusaders last week 3-1 at home, This match will be played at neutral ground the Oval.

Do u see this game being unders? Looking at cliftonville and overs little over 2/1?

user2011

Also did anyone catch the staines price? They're playing a team that will have an outfield player playing in goals.

All bookies except betfair have removed the match. 1.66 was 2.88

sboyle01

Anyone know why Galatasaray are such high odds tomorrow. They are 11/10 for the (-1) handicap. It's top at home against bottom. Gala have best home record in league while their opponents have worst away record. I know they're between CL games but they are only 4 points clear at top so will not take any game too lightly.

Headshot

Possibly resting players?

Avfctom

mailburner wrote: »

Only bet i fancy tomorrow is lambert anytime 17/10 (betv)
scored against pool and chelsea last two so that looks
a great price to score against the bottom team who've
lost their last 6
soton have just beaten
pool and chelsea in their last two
This should be easy in comparison

You're a brave man backing them new manager or not
I can't have them myself unless soton have an off day and
it's hard to knock them only losing 3 of their last 14 games
I was tempted to take the 5/4 myself but lambert looks better value

I can see alot of goals so lambert to score is likely but i dont rate this southampton team to be honest with you there not consistent since there manager change they have beaten chelsea liverpool man city but struggled against teams they should beat which to me shows they only get up for the big games i just think despite readings recent run the price is there to be taken 2/1 at home against a team couple places abover the relegation zone inconsistent and poor away looks value to me but saying that from a villa point of view draw would be the perfect result lol best of luck anyway bud cheers for the input

inforfun

user2011 wrote: »

Also did anyone catch the staines price? They're playing a team that will have an outfield player playing in goals.

All bookies except betfair have removed the match. 1.66 was 2.88

I am on it @1.69

Dont stare myself too blind on that goal keeper issue. Every team usually has at least 1 outfield players who is decent in goal as well.
Once played a team myself who had a goal keeper with 1 hand and a stump (yeah.. i played on some level) and the ****er was unbeatable.

FlawedGenius

Treble

Zawisza Byd win 2/5 (Poland 1, odds have dropped a lot for home win, only 3 bookies offering odds, 3rd v 8th)

Swansea double chance v Norwich 1/2

And Palace double chance home to Barnsley (Palace should really win this but takin DC to be safe and because its the championship:rolleyes:)

Pays 2.55

Colonialboy

TiltedBrain wrote: »

League Of Ireland Premier
Cork City - UC Dublin
...........

Everything points to Cork going on to silence their critics and finally getting season off to a start. I can't see past a minimum Cork 2 - 0 win, but could easily be 4+.

thanks for the analysis,didnt do a match bet, Cork City are famous down south for never delivering when they are expected too
but I got on Cork 4/5 at HT 1-1 , expecting them to get the win, the fat lady didnt sing till the 89th min.

I think theres some Away wins in the PL
putting my winnings from last night on Wigan, Chelsea, Southampton, Stoke, Harlequins 16/1

I think Harlequins (-4) 4/7 v Munster is a handy one to double up any footie bets for the weekend .