Thunderstorm, convective watch, Winter/Spring 2013

fryup

any chance of a thunderstorm with all this hot weather??

Comhrá

Didn't think there was any lightning activity over Ireland yesterday.
The Met Eireann lightning report has several strikes charted. Could they be spurious signals?





http://www.met.ie/images/lightning/sferic_20130608.gif

Neither of these other sites had any lightning strikes shown over Irl. yesterday.

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&subpage_0=12&subpage_3=3

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

Iancar29

One to watch for Wednesday afternoon,

Upper trough passes over the country with a nearby jet streak giving a decently unstable airmass over us and potential for funnels in some places if storms organise enough. Todays runs have changed alot concerning the speed and directional shear but looks good for generally instability with some sferic activity . HOpefully we get some shear on our hands to give us some decent photogenic structure after the pleasant run of weather we have had

thebiglewbowski

Please have this potential dip 50km south ^_^

M.T. Cranium

POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALLS and THUNDERSTORMS
______________________________________________

Parts of Connacht and north to central Leinster can expect intervals of heavy rain starting from about 5 p.m. in west and 7 p.m. in east, spreading north and pivoting around a frontal wave tracking northeast across Ireland this evening and overnight. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm seem likely and 20-30 mm in a few locations on a line from eastern Mayo to Meath.

Slight risk of severe thunderstorms embedded but dynamics do not appear to favour strong winds or large hail, just intense lightning and heavy rainfalls.

Confidence is medium on this event as guidance has split up the rainfall event into numerous meso-scale events. South coast and some parts of east coast may escape with only 2-5 mm rainfalls. Far north also not quite as heavy rain. The peak of this event is likely to be around 8 p.m. to midnight and within about 50 miles of Athlone.

This frontal system is currently located about 200 miles southwest of Kerry and should be pushing into southern and western regions about 3-4 p.m. but rain in the southern portion may be scattered light showers while the heavier rain develops after the warm front moves inland -- however it is possible that west Munster could see a few thunderstorms developing too. Anything that does develop south of the main area of rainfall would have a better chance to attain some severe characteristics.

Watch for updates although perhaps not from me until after 1800h.

Calibos

Night Night MT. Sweet Dreams

maquiladora

Estofex not expecting much, not even a 15% risk.

http://www.estofex.org/

eastmayo

Well the sky looks intresting looking towards galway from here.id say there some thunder in it.anyone in galway with any reports?

_Whimsical_

eastmayo wrote: »

Well the sky looks intresting looking towards galway from here.id say there some thunder in it.anyone in galway with any reports?

No thunder so far over the city.

A day of very heavy gray clouds and one or two heavy showers.

Iancar29

POSSIBLE SEVERE CONVECTIVE RISK FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING , MAINLY FOR SOUTH AND SOUTH WEST.

UPDATE WHEN I GET HOME

M.T. Cranium

Two areas appear favoured today for severe thunderstorm development as a strong frontal trough moves slowly east across Ireland.

One is Galway-Mayo, the other is a zone across the inland south from Kerry to Waterford.

I'm not saying other counties are out of the mix, but these appear to be the prime locations. Limerick and Clare are somewhat in between two lobes of this event but we'll see if that's a good model depiction or not, perhaps the zone will be more continuous.

The timing for the most severe part of this event would run from 2-3 p.m. west coast to 4-6 p.m. inland west to 6-9 p.m. inland southeast.

The front will then accelerate and move northeast, effects on Leinster may be more moderate in general but can be expected around 7-10 p.m. The same is true for Ulster with the timing extended to midnight or beyond in east Ulster, but with the exception of south Donegal which could see moderately strong showers or thunder.

In terms of what kind of severe weather, this looks like heavy rain most likely, small hail moderate chance, only a slight risk of damaging wind gusts but fairly widespread non-severe gusts to 70-80 km/hr, moderately intense thunder and lightning in a few spots, very low tornadic risk but of course can never be ruled out at this time of year.

This is one of the better indications I've seen for a heavy to severe storm in Waterford, so be on the lookout there (8-9 p,m. most likely).

The most severe reports may come from Galway when I consider the overlap of timing, population and dynamics. Flash flooding is possible in one or two locations as these cells will not be moving through rapidly and could entrain. Maximum rainfall potential is about 35 mm although I think the over/under for any reliable weather station report is 23 mm.

whitebriar

Current downpour shower in Arklow peaking at a rain rate of 131.8mm/hr on my Davis.
Quite loud!

cena

Would it be ok to paint a fence with the grey clouds hanging

Speak Now

cena wrote: »

Would it be ok to paint a fence with the grey clouds hanging

Where in the world are you?

cena

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Where in the world are you?

Galway. windy out too

Harps

Very windy in Galway though rain only light/moderate so far, intensity increasing all afternoon though. The front seems to be clearing through quickly so it should be interesting this evening, a few small cells building before the front but the main action seems set for later on. Hopefully no flooding obviously but we're well overdue some exciting weather so here's hoping it's not another let down

Storm 10

Harps wrote: »

Very windy in Galway though rain only light/moderate so far, intensity increasing all afternoon though. The front seems to be clearing through quickly so it should be interesting this evening, a few small cells building before the front but the main action seems set for later on. Hopefully no flooding obviously but we're well overdue some exciting weather so here's hoping it's not another let down

Looking at the latest weather radar I would not say the front is clearing through, there is a lot more to come yet.

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

Harps

It's moving very fast though so the back edge should reach in the next few hours

The Norwegian HIRLAM had some heavy showers for us in Galway from around 6pm onwards so it'll be interesting to see if anything comes of it, expectations very low as always!

Storm 10

Jez we could do with a good Thunder Storm always seem to miss out on them. Fingers crossed

Rikand

sky news weather forecast just after saying the bulk of the rain gone through the midlands by 6pm, there didnt seem to be much else coming behind it unless they just werent showing it on their graphic

Larbre34

Rickylovesuall wrote: »

sky news weather forecast just after saying the bulk of the rain gone through the midlands by 6pm, there didnt seem to be much else coming behind it unless they just werent showing it on their graphic

Its not potential for Britain so probably didnt bother

A few high hourly totals since midday in the south west, but no lightning reports.

Sat24 IR is showing nicely the cells in behind the front, mid-west and south west could be in for a show this evening

http://www.sat24.com/?ir=true

Harps

Not sure what model sky base their forecasts on but convective rain is very hard to predict accurately so I wouldn't be too hung up on what they're showing

Squall line forming now over Munster so things seem to be kicking off

pad199207

Front is really intensifying as it moves into Wales

Oscar Bravo

Few strikes in the NE in the past hour.

M.T. Cranium

There is a second part to this event that is brewing over the Atlantic in the form of post-frontal showers that could become squally and thundery as they move into west Munster around 7-8 p.m. and these will race across the southern half of the country reaching Dublin just before midnight, so watch for that action later, meanwhile the tentative squall line will continue to push east.

Some good news would be that the Sunday-Monday rainfall potential may be back down to a low probability even for parts of the south as that next system is back to what was earlier depicted on the GFS at least, we'll have to see what the ECM says later on. Next week also not looking anywhere near as dire as this past few days.

Oscar Bravo

Extremely heavy rain moving through Castlebar now along with squally winds. Sky tv picture gone,that type of thing!

redsteveireland

Heavy showers passing over Galway now, some hail in the mix too, convection looks good against the blue sky with fading light.

Harps

Same old story today, so many parameters playing ball yet as usual things didn't come together as hoped and we get nothing. Some good strong convection even as the sun was going down with some excellent shear, I did a quick time lapse earlier and the shear at the cloud tops was like something you'd see in a supercell. Not quite sure what the problem was this time though surface temps of only 10C obviously weren't helping, if we had a bit more heating from the sun then things could have been very different.

Rikand

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html

england got a bit of action and there's a strong old show going on in the North Sea at the moment.

all missed us though

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Just had a torrential downpour here in Sallins, you can see the blob on the radar !