Atlantic Storm Watch: Turning Unsettled with Gales

Bsal

Looking nice and windy tomorrow afternoon





Nice jetstream

RoisinD

Don't know what the weather has been like elsewhere all day but in NWClare it was a little mental. We were in Lisdoonvarna about 2.30pm and there was an unbelievable hail storm. The hailstones were huge and had everyone, including motorists running for cover. In this mix there was also thunder and lightning. I understand that the lightning took out some telephones and electricity and caused some damage to some houses. Winds are nothing out of the ordinary, fairly windy with the odd strong gusts.

Driving home I went to Doolin pier and the seas were unbelievable. Saw some insane behaviour. To the side of the pier are the ticket offices and behind them is a car park. One man had parked there and was getting out of the car and into a wheelchair. He was just in the chair when a massive wall of water came over the rocks. Luckily he had some protection from the car otherwise he would have been thrown out of the chair and swept along. Others were taking some real chances as the seas there are very volatile at the best of times. Amazing views of the angry seas right over to the Cliffs of Moher. Wish I had a camera with me. Maybe tomorrow;)

andrew

Here's some surf from today, from Mullaghmore in Sligo

http://vimeo.com/58300989#at=0

maquiladora

andrew wrote: »

Here's some surf from today, from Mullaghmore in Sligo

http://vimeo.com/58300989#at=0

Great waves. Surfers must be loving this!

cyclops999

maquiladora wrote: »

Great waves. Surfers must be loving this!

Brandon Bay Co Kerry choosen as the site for The R*d B*ll Storm Chase Challange

redsteveireland

Is that eye forming on the next system out in the Atlantic? Shaping up nicely now.

Animation here - www.sat24.com



Active skys out there today! saved @ 8pm

Still going strong off the Kerry/Cork coast.

Supercell

andrew wrote: »

Here's some surf from today, from Mullaghmore in Sligo

http://vimeo.com/58300989#at=0

Absolutely amazing, not sure which I'm more in awe of - nature or the loon riding the wave so skilfully!

Rougies

Supercell wrote: »

Absolutely amazing, not sure which I'm more in awe of - nature or the loon riding the wave so skilfully!

Hopefully the weather will deliver for the windsurfers at Brandon Bay tomorrow too, both for them and for us as there will be some amazing footage to watch if it does

eskimocat

Had a wonderful trip home to Donegal this weekend! While it wasn't seriously windy ( rather typical winter wind really) the sea was pure mad!! amazing waves and the foam was gorgeous!

Then on the return journey to Leitrim, I had to drive through a raging snow/hail blizzard which I just about got through!!

All in all a great weather day!

aboyro

lads that vimeo link is from last sunday heres a clip from mullaghmore today, much bigger and much more ominous:eek:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NKzvgNoGqvs#!

edit; deepest aploigies, thats from today. i was thinking it was a different clip

maquiladora

Estofex warning is out.

Regarding thunderstorm probabilities, the current focus shifts to the cold front, which is forecast to cross Ireland around noon. Thereafter, the occlusion point builds south (e.g. probably towards C-UK ) until the front exits UK to the east at roughly 18Z. While affecting Ireland and UK, an authentic signal of a rapidly SE-ward building dry slot exists with a tropopause fold and drying at 700 hPa being present. QPF model signals remain mixed, but there will be a low-end chance for a few deeper updrafts / potentially electrified /. Pooling signals like LL convergence, parcel layer depth and 700 hPa instability, the highest probabilities for an isolated thunderstorm event occur over S-Irland and C/S UK between 12-21 Z. Strong UVV max. /exit region of a 55 m/s 500 hPa jet max enter the scene also in time, so current plan is that a forced line of showers/isolated thunderstorms (LEWP) accompany the cold front passage, capable of mixing winds down to the surface. Kinematics are off the chart, so damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado event are possible. Some better LLCAPE sneaks in from the W and affects C/SW UK during the afternoon and evening hours, probably also increasing the tornado risk somewhat. A broad level 1 was issued, mainly for the severe to damaging wind gust risk with the expected limited DMC activity and to a lesser degree for the low-end tornado risk. In case a better CAPE environment sets-up and/or the frontal line of showers/thunderstorms becomes more vivid than currently forecast, an upgrade may be considered, given 35-40 m/s just atop the PBL.

A more widespread severe to damaging wind gust risk is forecast with the back-bent occlusion, which affects Ireland during the evening hours onwards. Despite a weakening wind field at 850 hPa, well mixed maritime air should assist in downward transport of winds from higher levels and therefore widespread severe wind gusts affect Ireland and UK during the overnight hours. Missing DMC activity means no reflection in our warning scheme.

They are usually pretty spot on. The forecast was issued by Helge Tuschy who is a forecaster working in the German met office.

Should be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

Estofex only issue warnings for severe convective weather, so the strong winds due to the pressure gradient are not part of their forecasts.

The last line seems to suggest that the only reason they don't issue a higher warning for wind gusts is because one of the parameters, deep moist convection, isn't there.

cyclops999

Maq can this be considered as potential upgrade or is it as you have been reading it up to now.

aboyro

some pretty scary terminology being used there. isolated tornado!!!!!!

maquiladora

cyclops999 wrote: »

Maq can this be considered as potential upgrade or is it as you have been reading it up to now.

It's an upgrade in terms of convective weather. It's not something that you can really see on wind/gust charts on Netweather etc. The LightningWizard GFS charts were showing very strong convective gusts but I was waiting to see what the Estofex experts made of it before taking those charts at face value.

It should make things a bit more interesting tomorrow, in places anyway.

AdamB

The south coast wasn't as wild and the west today, some photos here: http://adambending.blogspot.ie/2013/01/copper-coast-tramore-bunmahon-surfers.html

dexter647

Excellent photos:).. Thanks for sharing Adamb

RuthieRose

maquiladora wrote: »

Estofex warning is out.



They are usually pretty spot on. The forecast was issued by Helge Tuschy who is a forecaster working in the German met office.

Should be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

Estofex only issue warnings for severe convective weather, so the strong winds due to the pressure gradient are not part of their forecasts.

The last line seems to suggest that the only reason they don't issue a higher warning for wind gusts is because one of the parameters, deep moist convection, isn't there.

Hi Maq.
I have to ask if you could explain this in layman's terms for me. Are they saying its going to be windier, more thunder storms and heavy hail for tomorrow? If so, is this mainly on the west coast?

maquiladora

aboyro wrote: »

some pretty scary terminology being used there. isolated tornado!!!!!!

That doesn't mean it has to be a monster tornado like you see on Discovery.

weisses

maquiladora wrote: »

That doesn't mean it has to be a monster tornado like you see on Discovery.

fukc that ... spent my whole day making my punto look like the TIV





very .. very disappointed

aboyro

enough to suck the roof off the shed and get me a million youtube hits is all i'm looking for:D

maquiladora

RuthieRose wrote: »

Hi Maq.
I have to ask if you could explain this in layman's terms for me. Are they saying its going to be windier, more thunder storms and heavy hail for tomorrow? If so, is this mainly on the west coast?

It will be windy tomorrow anyway but during the day and into the evening there will be a risk of thunderstorms with some severe gusts from winds higher up in the atmosphere being brought down to the surface at times, in places, not everywhere. This would be seperate to the "normal" windy conditions during the day, which will be strongest in the west.

RuthieRose

Mental thing happened about 7ish this evening that gave me a real scare.
I was walking during a dry spell the 5 or 6 steps from the shed to the back door this evening when I heard this noise. Several thoughts went through my head in the 10 or so seconds before i realised what it was.. I thought it was waves crashing on the bay but quickly realised I was far to far from the sea to hear it. Then a couple of car and house alarms started to go off and I thought freak massive wave(!!!!!) but quickly realised it was a hail shower heading for me! It was the noise of the hail hitting all the houses before it got to where I was standing and it was a mighty shower that turned everything white for an hour or so..
Sorry just wanted to share that!! I have never heard that before and it set off car and house alarms!!!! Mental!!!!

maquiladora

Should be interesting radar watching tomorrow.

eskimocat

maquiladora wrote: »

Should be interesting radar watching tomorrow.

Will be stuck at work, so depending on you lovely boardsies to post up charts, radars etc!!

Would so love the day off tomorrow!

irish1967

Wind sounds to be increasing here in Donegal Town already. Have rain/hail showers with strong gusts now and again. As you said Maq should be an 'interesting' day tomorrow.

amandstu

Those hail showers are extremely dangerous.Last year one came at me from the blue and the car turned into a giant pair of roller skates.

The worst part was that I had no idea the car would slide on hailstones and it took me a second or two to realise that it wasn't the brakes that had failed (I also tried the handbrake when the pedal was no use ) .

The car did 180 degrees...... I was lucky.

Oscar Bravo

Nasty hail shower here in Castlebar with some very squally winds.

Super-Rush

Sky is clear in Carlow and its freezing its ass off outside. Car is frozen solid.

naughto

its very stormy in castlebar at the minute with heavy rain/hail

RuthieRose

Clearish sky's over Galway with no wind. Calm before the storm?!!

Good night all!