Atlantic Storm Watch: Turning Unsettled with Gales

kerrywez

The sky has brightened now here between Killarney and Killorglin, there is a massive hole in the clouds with blue sky right out to Dingle Bay, with some light looking clouds behind it, this could well be the a little break in the storm. Will be going to Rossbeigh later to have a look and tae my cameras with me.

red_bairn

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS still showing very strong maximum convective gusts possible, up to 160 km/h, highest arround 6pm. Will be watching the radar closely this afternoon/evening!

Are they mainly off the West coast or could some be nationwide? I want to sleep with a roof above my head tonight.

maquiladora

red_bairn wrote: »

Are they mainly off the West coast or could some be nationwide? I want to sleep with a roof above my head tonight.

Convective gusts so could be almost anywhere. Should be able to know in advance from the radar though. It doesn't mean there will be gusts that strong, thats just the maximum potential.

leinad

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

dacogawa

If anyone wants to keep an eye on the Dublin coastal wind speeds here's two good sites if you dont have them bookmarked

http://www.dlharbour.ie/weather/
http://www.islandbawn.com/

There's realtime live data on the right of islandbawn

Mr Bumble

Tornado anyone???

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2013/001

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 10:25GMT on Monday 28th January 2013

Valid from/until: 10:25 – 23:00GMT on Monday 28th January 2013 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Cent and N Eire

N Ireland

N England

IoM

Scotland

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes; wind gusts to 70mph; occasional CG lightning; hail 10-15mm diameter

SYNOPSIS

A powerful Atlantic depression is pushing an active frontal system across the British Isles. Mid-level dry intrusion is overruning the front across western Eire, and occasional sferic activity has been noted. Convective elements, perhaps including short line segments should accompany the cold front/occlusion as it moves across the discussion area.

Strong cloud-layer shear suggests that rotation could develop within convection, and strong low-level shear (40-50 knots in places) and a fairly moist low-level airmass suggest that brief tornadoes are possible. In addition, the strong low-level flow is conducive to severe wind gusts, of 60-65mph. Post-frontal convection across Eire is also expected to move in this afternoon, and will also be strongly sheared. Low-topped supercells are possible in N Ireland and N Eire, with the risk of isolated tornadoes, wind gusts to 70 mph, and hail.

The overall situation is fairly borderline for organised severe convection so a discussion seems appropriate at this stage.

Deank

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Tornado anyone???

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2013/001

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 10:25GMT on Monday 28th January 2013

Valid from/until: 10:25 – 23:00GMT on Monday 28th January 2013 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Cent and N Eire

N Ireland

N England

IoM

Scotland

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes; wind gusts to 70mph; occasional CG lightning; hail 10-15mm diameter

SYNOPSIS

A powerful Atlantic depression is pushing an active frontal system across the British Isles. Mid-level dry intrusion is overruning the front across western Eire, and occasional sferic activity has been noted. Convective elements, perhaps including short line segments should accompany the cold front/occlusion as it moves across the discussion area.

Strong cloud-layer shear suggests that rotation could develop within convection, and strong low-level shear (40-50 knots in places) and a fairly moist low-level airmass suggest that brief tornadoes are possible. In addition, the strong low-level flow is conducive to severe wind gusts, of 60-65mph. Post-frontal convection across Eire is also expected to move in this afternoon, and will also be strongly sheared. Low-topped supercells are possible in N Ireland and N Eire, with the risk of isolated tornadoes, wind gusts to 70 mph, and hail.

The overall situation is fairly borderline for organised severe convection so a discussion seems appropriate at this stage.

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

Harps

Larbre34 wrote: »

A couple of big old cells blew right up Galway Bay on the radar alright, bit of a sting in the tail from the front, and Id say the squall would have been severe. Will be interesting to see the hourly rate returns.

Is it just severe surface flooding or anything worse inside premises etc?

Hearing reports that the fire brigade have had to rescue people from basements in the city centre and guards have closed off some streets. Stuck at work here so not sure how bad it is, about 3 or 4 inches of water outside my window here

maquiladora

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Tornado anyone???

It's possible. Its mentioned in the Estofex warning. I wouldn't be expecting anything dramatic but some people might be lucky enough to get a few pics if they spot one.

Estofex warning :

Regarding thunderstorm probabilities, the current focus shifts to the cold front, which is forecast to cross Ireland around noon. Thereafter, the occlusion point builds south (e.g. probably towards C-UK ) until the front exits UK to the east at roughly 18Z. While affecting Ireland and UK, an authentic signal of a rapidly SE-ward building dry slot exists with a tropopause fold and drying at 700 hPa being present. QPF model signals remain mixed, but there will be a low-end chance for a few deeper updrafts / potentially electrified /. Pooling signals like LL convergence, parcel layer depth and 700 hPa instability, the highest probabilities for an isolated thunderstorm event occur over S-Irland and C/S UK between 12-21 Z. Strong UVV max. /exit region of a 55 m/s 500 hPa jet max enter the scene also in time, so current plan is that a forced line of showers/isolated thunderstorms (LEWP) accompany the cold front passage, capable of mixing winds down to the surface. Kinematics are off the chart, so damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado event are possible. Some better LLCAPE sneaks in from the W and affects C/SW UK during the afternoon and evening hours, probably also increasing the tornado risk somewhat. A broad level 1 was issued, mainly for the severe to damaging wind gust risk with the expected limited DMC activity and to a lesser degree for the low-end tornado risk. In case a better CAPE environment sets-up and/or the frontal line of showers/thunderstorms becomes more vivid than currently forecast, an upgrade may be considered, given 35-40 m/s just atop the PBL.

A more widespread severe to damaging wind gust risk is forecast with the back-bent occlusion, which affects Ireland during the evening hours onwards. Despite a weakening wind field at 850 hPa, well mixed maritime air should assist in downward transport of winds from higher levels and therefore widespread severe wind gusts affect Ireland and UK during the overnight hours. Missing DMC activity means no reflection in our warning scheme.

maquiladora

Lightning in that intense shower just off Kilkee now.

Some very intense stuff around Longford now too.

leahyl

It's absolutely bucketing down here guys and extremely windy :eek:

Aiel

An unreal downpour of rain in Galway City awhile ago,i never seen or heard anything like that before.The intensity was very impressive.Theres a few new rivers just formed around town plus the lake at Lough Atalia has now been extended to The Huntsman junction and college road junction.Fr.Griffin Rd and parts of Salthill also under quite alot of water right now.

irish1967

Aptly... FLOOD STREET IN GALWAY JUST NOW (SOURCE TWITTER)

maquiladora

Very, very heavy precip around Longford now.

irish1967

Galway is sinking me thinks

redsteveireland

maquiladora wrote: »

You weren't joking. :eek:

Those red and pink sections are not far off my location, it was serious rain. Tempted to head to the coast before work.

maquiladora

This is producing some lightning along the west coast at the moment.

davehey79

maquiladora wrote: »

Very, very heavy precip around Longford now.

in longford town myself we had a 2-3 minute outburst of extremely heavy rain/hail about 10 or 15 mins ago but other than that its completely stopped now

km79

redsteveireland wrote: »

Those red and pink sections are not far off my location, it was serious rain. Tempted to head to the coast before work.

I think we jUST missed the worst of it

some_dose

maquiladora wrote: »

You weren't joking. :eek:

That red patch passed directly over me. Mad stuff altogether.

gabeeg

What rainfall radar are you guys posting screens from?

dloob

The garden still has a few deep puddles from overflow from the gutter drains.
It was biblical, so heavy it was kicking up a load of spray off the roofs of the neighbouring houses.

The AA are reporting a few road closures in Galway City, usual areas, flood street and college road junction
https://twitter.com/aaroadwatch/status/295866644453019649

It's actually nice and sunny here now.

Weathering

Latest reports from met.ie http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp
Sleet recorded in Carlow when it's 8degrees I think not ha
Wind gusts not too bad

Penname

Pressure dropped from 999 this a.m. to 985.5. When have I license to punch the air and shout "PRESSURE BOMB?"

dloob

maquiladora wrote: »

You weren't joking. :eek:

I think it was even heavier over the city centre around 11

blankAs

tramore is getting a beating from this storm, just watched a neighbours shed roof come off and driving down the prom i wouldnt advise it, it was scary with the gusts coming off the sea. iv never seen clouds move in from the sea that quickly ever, is that due to the high atmospheric winds they were talking about? the pressure had dropped 7/8 in the past hr and that large tree out the back aint looking too stable at the moment

Larbre34

Thats extraordinary stuff in Galway, hope there aren't any injuries, obviously some property will be in trouble.

That warning of post frontal convection is perhaps the biggest danger, looking at Galway now it wouldn't want to get another hit from an intense cell. At least if the activity is dispersed it will spread the interesting sights for weather watchers more widely and hopefully limit the damage.

The low centre is shaping up to give the northwest the worst of the activity from south of its centre, could be a fair bit of torrential precip and localised severe gusts in Connacht / Donegal.

loup

Think this might just miss Dublin by the looks of the rainfall radar now? Is more due to hit later?

snubbleste

dloob wrote: »

I think it was even heavier over the city centre around 11

I agree. According to galwaycityweather.com in Newcastle
Rainfall Rate Max 46.6 mm/hr at 11:01

Harps

dloob wrote: »

I think it was even heavier over the city centre around 11

Yeah I'm in the city centre and it was absolutely biblical between 10.30 and 11, radar doesn't seem to match the intensity even with those few red pixels. Wish I'd video'd it, looked like a microburst at times

Anyways, that aside its actually a nice day here now, sunny with only a breeze