Atlantic Storm Watch: Turning Unsettled with Gales

Trogdor

maquiladora wrote: »

There is more heavy rain on the way tomorrow I'm afraid.

Hopefully there'll be enough time for river levels to fall a bit overnight, the combination or today's rain and the snow melt off the Wicklow mountains certainly has the dargle looking very threatening this evening.

admiralofthefleet

Trogdor wrote: »

Hopefully there'll be enough time for river levels to fall a bit overnight, the combination or today's rain and the snow melt off the Wicklow mountains certainly has the dargle looking very threatening this evening.

the Avoca in Arklow was a raging torrent at the bridge earlier

Birdnuts

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z GFS downgrades Monday's potential storm for here and tracks Tuesday's potential storm hundreds of miles further west of us. Big changes with these lows from just six hours ago. Impossible to know what will actually happen.

Both ECM and MetO look alot stormier - given the jet forecast I can see this as being the more likely outcome.

whiteandlight

I've been away abit with work this week so haven't been paying attention! When are these two storms due to hit? And I'm right in saying neither are actually the huge in in the Atlantic?

maquiladora

Musicmental85 wrote: »

I've been away abit with work this week so haven't been paying attention! When are these two storms due to hit? And I'm right in saying neither are actually the huge in in the Atlantic?

The big Atlantic low, Jolle, is developing now and will peak early tomorrow out at sea. We'll find out tonight if it undergoes as much explosive deepening as the models think. There are two possible other lows then Monday and Tuesday that would be much smaller but because they could pass close to Ireland we could get stronger winds from them. There is a lot of uncertainty about Monday/Tuesday though, and one or both of those might not have any real impact here at all. I have a feeling they will end up tracking well away from us but I could be wrong.

Big Daddy Cool

Hey maq do you know if the rain tomorrow evening will be as heavy and long as today's.

Storm 10

Met Eireann are going to give further info on the storm after the news that follows the late late show could be interesting, thats what Gerry said after the 6pm news

Deank

Storm 10 wrote: »

Met Eireann are going to give further info on the storm after the news that follows the late late show could be interesting, thats what Gerry said after the 6pm news

Mmmm Gerry, the anti ramper, perhaps he only anti ramps when snow is about.:rolleyes:

delw

maquiladora wrote: »

Surf's up.

Jaysus high seas,half of Ireland is gone

Deank

delw wrote: »

Jaysus high seas,half of Ireland is gone

A Martin King forecast for this would be epic; and a happy birthday to Mary O'Dea from Mallow who's 102 today.....:D

maquiladora

968mb at 9pm.

18Z GFS is now going for a peak intensity of 931mb, slightly weaker than previous runs but still very intense.

maquiladora

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

Hey maq do you know if the rain tomorrow evening will be as heavy and long as today's.

Probably similar to today. Maybe a bit heavier in some places.

Big Daddy Cool

maquiladora wrote: »

Probably similar to today. Maybe a bit heavier in some places.

Ok i taught it was faster moving system then today's.Thanks

Weathering

Gfs seems to be pushing them further north

maquiladora

Starting to come into view on Sat24. Should look very impressive in the early morning: http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

North Atlantic view : http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-rgb.html

Big Daddy Cool

Beautiful night now in north meath, real calm before the storm feel to it. Flood water all gone from around the House........until tomorrow

Oscar Bravo

A 2256 update from Met Eireann....Outlook is for very disturbed weather with stormy conditions at times and some very wet periods especially in the west and southwest.
Sunday night: Cold and very windy on Sunday night with scattered heavy rain, hail and sleet showers in parts of the west and north, but dry and clear through the midlands and east. Some patchy frost developing in spite of the wind in the early part of the night and risk of icy patches. However rain and milder conditions on the west coast by morning.
Extremely windy or stormy in places on Monday, especially coastal areas of the west and south. Gale force southerly winds over land will veer westerly later with severe gusts of 100 to 140km/hr in exposed places and strong gale or storm force winds at Sea.
Rain becoming widespread and heavy Monday morning with falls of 10 to 15mm in places, but clearing eastwards to squally showers during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures of 7 to 11 degrees. Winds moderating for a time on Monday night but becoming very windy again on Tuesday and possibly stormy in northwestern areas. Wet also with persistent and at times heavy rain but clearing to showery conditions later in the day but staying very windy well into the night.
Still windy and very blustery on Wednesday but not stormy. Generally cool and bright with sunny spells and occasional heavy showers, mostly in the southwest, west and north. Risk of some frost overnight. More wet and windy weather on Thursday with the risk of stormy conditions again in places later in the day. Cold blustery showery conditions on Friday. Staying unsettled over next weekend but lighter winds means frostier conditions when skies are clea

Weathering

I thought the north west was supposed to be worst affected by Monday's winds

Harps

maquiladora wrote: »

Starting to come into view on Sat24. Should look very impressive in the early morning: http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

North Atlantic view : http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-rgb.html

Found a great site here for satellite views, for the Atlantic, click hemispheric products on the left then either North Atlantic or Polar (for a view of the whole northern hemisphere). Click product menu above the image to get options for up to 48 hours loop in either visible, infrared or water vapour views. The water vapour view really looks amazing on the polar sat, the polar vortex and all the various lows really stand out

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Some great imagery on the 1km satellite there as well though it only covers the US

maquiladora

Pangea

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

140km/hr in exposed places and strong gale

I don't get out out of bed for anything less than 120km, you have just sparked my interest.

Weathering

Here here pangea,I hope it hits during the day/coming in to the evening. Bad for transport etc but am I bothered ha

maquiladora

Don't take the forecasts for gusts to 140 km/h as gospel just yet. There are changes with the models on each run with how those lows are handled and it would only take a fairly small shift north (which usually does happen, and has happened since yesterday on some models) for the strongest winds to miss us.

It's safe to say we are in for a some windy weather, but just how windy remains to be seen. At the moment I'm not convinced we will see anything too out of the ordinary for Ireland. Strong winds on exposed northwest coasts in winter is not unusual.

The potential will be there though. Interesting few days ahead.

Elmer Blooker

Weathering wrote: »

Here here pangea,I hope it hits during the day/coming in to the evening. Bad for transport etc but am I bothered ha

I hope it doesn't hit at all, I would prefer if the tiles on my roof stayed on my roof! :rolleyes:

Weathering

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I hope it doesn't hit at all, I would prefer if the tiles on my roof stayed on my roof! :rolleyes:

Super glue them

maquiladora

Last post for the night.

NOAA chart for midnight. They put it at 950mb at that time, GFS had it down to 956mb at midnight, so slightly stronger than the GFS there. That was 3 hours ago so it should quite a bit deeper now.

snaps

Nice pic of the Atlantic with Jolle winding her self up to the west. 4amUTC.

maquiladora

Looks very impressive on satellite now : http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

Hurricane force winds and huge seas out there now.

Monkaa

maquiladora wrote: »

Looks very impressive on satellite now : http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

Hurricane force winds and huge seas out there now.

Wow impressive

Any idea what time that band of rain from the west will hit Dublin? I'm meant to be going for a walk up & through the Dublin mountains at 1 this afternoon but don't fancy getting caught & drowned!!!

munsterlegend

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur60.png

It looks quite windy Monday evening.

Ahorseofaman

this should be well worth keeping an eye on over the next few days
http://www.oceanscene.ie/lahinchsurfingcentersurfwebcam.html

triskell

Ahorseofaman wrote: »

this should be well worth keeping an eye on over the next few days
http://www.oceanscene.ie/lahinchsurfingcentersurfwebcam.html

Fantastic. ta very much for the link. all that's missing is the sound of the waves:D:D

Weathering

munsterlegend wrote: »

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur60.png

It looks quite windy Monday evening.

Great link,I'm on my phone is there anyway u could link the run after that to I see what it's like in Donegal,can't get it
Or tell me how. Thanks

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/gfs_gusts_eur60.png

It looks quite windy Monday evening.

Those would be some serious, damaging convective gusts if that model is right. Much stronger than winds would be from the pressure gradient.

Worth keeping a close eye on, I'd imagine that would be an Estofex Level 3. At least the low on Tuesday is staying well away now, that looks even worse.

Weathering

maquiladora wrote: »

Those would be some serious, damaging convective gusts if that model is right. Much stronger than winds would be from the pressure gradient.

Worth keeping a close eye on, I'd imagine that would be an Estofex Level 3. At least the low on Tuesday is staying well away now, that looks even worse.

Maq,Tuesday low is close enough to still hit the Northern third of Eire bad. That's my take from the lastest GFS but u know more than me.
It seems to push north stall and veer directly towards mid/southern western Scotland

maquiladora

Weathering wrote: »

Maq,Tuesday low is close enough to still hit the Northern third of Eire bad. That's my take from the lastest GFS but u know more than me.
It seems to push north stall and veer directly towards mid/southern western Scotland

I was only looking at the 06Z GFS up to 72 hours on LightningWizard, but yes it does turn more towards us then and brings some very strong winds to the northwest on Wednesday.

Weathering

Good link for talk about the storm on netweather http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75377-atlanic-storms-winter-201213/page__st__80

Tornado shear http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=157985

Sorry I can't upload the image,phones playing up

Mr Cumulonimbus

Image at mid-day.

Pappa Charlie

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

Image at mid-day.

The dolly bird on RTE weather seemed to be playing it down but I always manage to get distracted after the first few sentences, maybe I missed the warning!

maquiladora

What a beautiful beast.

maquiladora

NOAA NWS Ocean Prediction Center's Page

Beautiful, textbook satellite imagery from the SEVIRI (Meteosat-9) Red Green Blue (RGB) Air Mass product this morning, valid time Jan 26th 0645Z. The central pressure of the low was analyzed to 939 mb at 06Z, and the system is forecast to deepen even further over the next 12 hours. The low is then forecast to slowly fill and lift northeastward, giving way to a continued very active, and very intense low track over the next several days across the Atlantic.

Mr Cumulonimbus

Frontal cloud moving over alot of the country now. Snow covering a fair bit of Britain.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

maquiladora

Wow. Latest NOAA chart just out showing wave heights up to 18m = 60 feet. Individual waves would be even higher.

chilipepper

Very heavy rain here in clare at the moment. I would expect some flooding out of this.

snaps

Some serious flooding on the roads. And drivers driving with no lights on and like nutters.

Oscar Bravo

Was at Sligo airport today,so i popped down to the sea for a look,some really big waves there!! Back in Castlebar now,its wet and windy....

ninebeanrows

looks like it will bottom near 932hPa.

maquiladora

NOAA chart for 12pm today, showing Jolle at 930mb three hours ago.

ninebeanrows

Look at the speed of the wind at 850hPa Monday, the Jet will be right overhead >150kts

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

looks like it will bottom near 932hPa.

I'd say between 925-930 since NOAA put had it at 930 at 12pm.

Pity there are no ships/buoys anywhere near the center!