February 2013 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

IMT was 5.7 C after 16 days, and 13.2 C at Casement yesterday. Perhaps there was a higher reading previously, I didn't notice it.

IMT will probably slide a little to Thursday, then could be as low as 2 to 3 for rest of the month so that 5.7 is likely to end up in the 4 to 4.5 range, possibly even lower.

pauldry

New low for month?

Currently minus 3 in Sligo if sky stays clear we could get minus 5 but there's cloud nearby

Harps

It reached -6C at Markree last night, already down to -3C again tonight so a chance that'll be beaten again

Nabber

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Shannon so far the highest at 7.8 hours, and this means that scoring is already "a done deal" even if some other station comes in higher, only two guesses (at a quick glance) were higher than 7.8 (baraca, rickylovesuall), and one more from "nabber" right on the money

7.8 did it? I thought i went a tad high. But there you go.

This makes up for the lack of snow.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT is about 5.0 C now (estimating today's impact on the average which was 5.14 C after 23rd). Each day that averages 2.6 Monday to Thursday will result in a further fall of 0.1 per day, to give you a rough idea of the finishing potential. As 2.6 is the average of -2.0 and 7.2 that seems realistic although it's quite approximate, so somewhere between 4.5 and 4.7 seems like the landing zone for this month.

Wasn't it about 14 or 15 deg last year at this time?

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Wasn't it about 14 or 15 deg last year at this time?

Not really, the max for the month was 13.7C at Cork Airport on the 22nd.
The end of March was very good with temps above 20C which was the last dry settled spell up to now.

Harps

Joe Public wrote: »

Not really, the max for the month was 13.7C at Cork Airport on the 22nd.
The end of March was very good with temps above 20C which was the last dry settled spell up to now.

Ogimet shows 14.8C at Oak Park on the 24th..

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&osum=no&state=Irel&fmt=html&ano=2012&mes=02&day=24&hora=00&ord=REV

It might be a lot colder this time round but after 10 days with no rain and 10 hours of unbroken sunshine today I'm not complaining in the slightest!

Joe Public

Harps wrote: »

Ogimet shows 14.8C at Oak Park on the 24th..

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&osum=no&state=Irel&fmt=html&ano=2012&mes=02&day=24&hora=00&ord=REV

It might be a lot colder this time round but after 10 days with no rain and 10 hours of unbroken sunshine today I'm not complaining in the slightest!

I should go to bed for that mistake but on 2nd check the max for the month was officially 15.0C at Phoenix Park on the 23rd.

In short, you are correct M.T.

M.T. Cranium

I wasn't sure about the date, just recalled the general situation from the impact it had on the winter forecast contest.

pauldry

Minus 7 in Sligo new low markree

Minus 1.7c in Sligo town

M.T. Cranium

That reading shows up as -6.9 C at Markree Castle on Sunday, which will also be the coldest of the winter season, if confirmed in the MS.

DOCARCH

-7.0c for Markree on the 25th.

pauldry

IMT 4.7c for February

M.T. Cranium

Here are the final stats for February:

IMT 4.7 C

MAX 13.2 C

MIN --7.0 C

PRC 70% (69.6 actually)

SUN 119% all thanks to Belmullet near twice normal (the rest were near normal)

As already discussed, the bonus question goes in the same order as predictions, as there was 7.8h sunshine for the maximum on the 14th.

So now we score (perhaps) ... stay tuned, I may get this done before my next beauty sleep.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for February contest
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Forecaster (penalty) ..... IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Sun-14th ...... Totals
_______________________________________________________________

Actual values ...............4.7 ... 13.2 .. -7.0 ... 070 ... 119 ... 7.8

dasa29 ........................ 23 .... 18 .... 20 .... 02 .... 06 .... 07 ......... 76
homolumo ................... 23 .... 17 .... 17 .... 08 .... 06 .... 01 ......... 72
waterways ................... 22 .... 12 .... 17 .... 05 .... 08 .... 06 ......... 70
nabber ........................ 19 .... 20 .... 00 .... 12 .... 08 .... 10 .......... 69

Con Sensus ................. 23 .... 11 .... 15 .... 08 .... 06 .... 06 .......... 69

Tae laidir ..................... 24 .... 17 .... 20 .... 02 .... 05 .... 00 .......... 68
mickger844posts .......... 19 .... 16 .... 08 .... 12 .... 08 .... 04 .......... 67
jd ............................... 24 .... 15 .... 09 .... 07 .... 06 .... 06 .......... 67
200motels ................... 20 .... 00 .... 14 .... 09 .... 09 .... 09 .......... 61
harps .......................... 23 .... 08 .... 16 .... 08 .... 04 .... 02 .......... 61


Hammer Archer ........... 15 .... 11 .... 11 .... 09 .... 08 .... 06 .......... 60
Pauldry ....................... 20 .... 13 .... 10 .... 02 .... 08 .... 07 .......... 60
talkabout .................... 20 .... 05 .... 17 .... 08 .... 06 .... 02 .......... 58
cherryghost ................. 24 .... 00 .... 12 .... 08 .... 10 .... 04 .......... 58
Joe Public .................... 07 .... 13 .... 11 .... 12 .... 08 .... 07 .......... 58
dacogawa .................... 15 .... 14 .... 08 .... 09 .... 09 .... 01 .......... 56
delw ........................... 21 .... 00 .... 18 .... 08 .... 05 .... 04 .......... 56
E. Fudd ....................... 20 .... 00 .... 16 .... 10 .... 00 .... 09 .......... 55
Jerry Seinfeld ............... 22 .... 02 .... 10 .... 05 .... 06 .... 09 .......... 54
jambofc ....................... 23 .... 06 .... 00 .... 08 .... 09 .... 08 .......... 54
snowstreams ................ 16 .... 09 .... 03 .... 09 .... 08 .... 09 .......... 54
Deank ......................... 20 .... 18 .... 00 .... 11 .... 00 .... 04 .......... 53

baraca ......................... 15 .... 00 .... 05 .... 11 .... 09 .... 10 .......... 50
DOCARCH .................... 24 .... 00 .... 13 .... 02 .... 05 .... 06 .......... 50
omicron ...................... 19 .... 07 .... 10 .... 05 .... 06 .... 02 .......... 49
rickylovesuall ............... 17 .... 07 .... 00 .... 05 .... 09 .... 10 .......... 48
nilhg ........................... 15 .... 13 .... 09 .... 03 .... 04 .... 03 .......... 47
Jpmarn ........................ 20 .... 00 .... 00 .... 12 .... 08 .... 07 .......... 47
Bejubby ....................... 08 .... 16 .... 10 .... 02 .... 01 .... 09 .......... 46
okla (-5) ...................... 19 .... 00 .... 19 .... 03 .... 05 .... 02 .......... 48-5=43
lostinashford (-5) .......... 05 .... 18 .... 00 .... 09 .... 07 .... 09 .......... 48-5=43

M.T. Cranium ............... 05 .... 08 .... 01 .... 12 .... 09 .... 04 .......... 39
Strasser ...................... 12 .... 10 .... 00 .... 07 .... 04 .... 05 .......... 38
traecy.1 ...................... 17 .... 01 .... 05 .... 05 .... 04 .... 04 .......... 36
H2U.MrsRobinson ......... 11 .... 02 .... 00 .... 09 .... 04 .... 10 .......... 36
Bsal ............................ 16 .... 10 .... 00 .... 02 .... 04 .... 03 .......... 35
kindredspirit (-5) .......... 10 .... 00 .... 00 .... 15 .... 10 .... 04 .......... 39-5=34
SeaFields ..................... 11 .... 00 .... 20 .... 00 .... 00 .... 02 .......... 33
dexter647 .................... 09 .... 00 .... 00 .... 13 .... 01 .... 09 .......... 32

rameire ....................... 12 .... 00 .... 00 .... 12 .... 02 .... 03 .......... 29
john mac (-15) ............. 20 .... 06 .... 04 .... 02 .... 05 .... 01 .......... 38-15=23

Rebelbrowser (-20) ....... 07 .... 08 .... 00 .... 13 .... 00 .... 06 .......... 34-20=14

MiNdGaM3 (-10) ........... 11 .... 03 .... 00 .... 02 .... 05 .... 00 .......... 21-10=11

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
_________________________________________________________

Seems that these new tougher late penalties are just hitting all the wrong targets so perhaps I may ease up on them a bit ... in the meantime, check my addition as I am now officially sleepwalking.

Congrats to the folks who managed to beat Con Sensus, (dasa29, homolumo, waterways, nabber) ... not too many of us did but the scoring was fairly good, all the themes were a bit faint but cold, dry and sunny in a way.

Annual scores some time later today.

Oh, also a calculation of those seasonal awards and then over to the winter forecast contest which still has some time left to run in case it snows again or gets colder than -7.0, the lowest reading of the winter so far.

M.T. Cranium

Winter seasonal contest results
_______________________________________

To be eligible, you must have entered all three Dec, Jan and Feb contests.

Total scores in order, with points towards four-seasons award end of autumn season.

Total scores

1. homolumo (59 69 72) 200 ...... 10 pts

Con Sensus (54 76 69) .. 199

2. harps (64 73 61) ..... 198 ....... 7 pts
3. waterways (66 57 70) 193 ...... 6 pts
4. jambofc (67 71 54) 192 ...... 5 pts
5 . Jerry Seinfeld (64 69 54) 187 ...... 4 pts
5. Pauldry (68 59 60) 187 ...... 3 pts
7. Tae laidir (45 73 68) .. 186 ...... 2 pts
8. Hammer Archer (58 63 60) .. 181 .... 1 pt
9. kindredspirit (75 66 34) ....... 175 .... 1 pt
10. DOCARCH (82 42 50) .. 174 .... 1 pt
________________________________

Strasser (66 69 38) ... 173
traecy.1 (56 79 36) ... 171
cherryghost (40 71 58) ... 169
200motels (52 54 61) .. 167
talkabout (56 52 58) .. 166
nilhg (74 44 47) .. 165
delw (63 46 56) 165
mickger844posts (53 35 67) .. 155
rameire (65 60 29) ... 154
dasa29 (41 35 76) .. 152
jd (35 49 67) ... 151
john mac (76 50 23) 149
dacogawa (41 51 56) ... 148
H2U.MrsRobinson (71 41 36) 148
Bsal (58 54 35) .. 147
SeaFields (66 35 33) ... 134
rickylovesuall (44 41 48) .. 133
M.T. Cranium (60 34 39) .. 133
okla (37 52.43) .... 132
lostinashford (57 27 43) ... 127
Joe Public (40 25 58) ... 123
MiNdGaM3 (42 30 11) .. 83

______________________________________

Annual scores will be worked out after the end of April. The three numbers in the brackets are Dec, Jan and Feb scores, so your annual score is the sum of the last two. There's one or two entrants who missed December but have their two entries in for the annual competition.

Tae laidir

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Winter seasonal contest results
_______________________________________


Annual scores will be worked out after the end of April.

Thanks for avoiding the embarrassment.

I think Con is beating the lot of us!:o