February 2013 Boards forecast contest

delw

Done

nilhg

Done

jambofc

done

lostinashford

Done but late I think

kindredspirit

Ooops! Who's been a bold boy then and entered late?:eek:

(It just went out of my mind.):(

Anyway, form done.:)

okla

Done

MiNdGaM3

Done.

mayfly757

Light dusting here in Long Island NY

John mac

extreamly late on this one ,, done anyway ..

M.T. Cranium

People are still welcome to enter the old-fashined way by posting in this thread, in case you don't want to use the table.

I will start a policy of ignoring posts made by non-registered-on-Boards pseudonyms, including not mentioning them here. If I don't recognize a name and there is no post on the thread, and if I can't PM the person by the name they provide in the table, then the forecast does not exist in the contest.

Hope the person(s) spamming the contest will get that message but if they don't, knock yourselves out.

Rebelbrowser

Done finally

M.T. Cranium

Table of entries -- February contest

Please note that it is a requirement for entry to use a valid Boards.ie username. Other entries are not accepted.


Forecaster (penalty) ..... IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Sun-14th
_______________________________________________________________


lostinashford (-5) .......... 6.7 .... 13.0 .... -4.8 .... 088 .... 104 .... 6.0
dexter647 .................... 6.3 .... 15.2 .... -4.3 .... 077 .... 073 .... 6.3
kindredspirit (-5) .......... 6.2 .... 15.5 .... -4.0 .... 070 .... 120 .... 4.0
SeaFields ..................... 6.1 .... 16.5 .... -7.0 .... 125 .... 050 .... 3.0
MiNdGaM3 (-10) ........... 6.1 .... 14.9 .... -4.9 .... 110 .... 095 .... 1.2
Strasser ...................... 6.0 .... 12.2 .... -4.5 .... 095 .... 090 .... 4.4
rameire ....................... 6.0 .... 15.3 .... -3.4 .... 080 .... 080 .... 3.5
Hammer Archer ............ 5.7 .... 14.1 .... -6.1 .... 087 .... 110 .... 4.2
nilhg ........................... 5.7 .... 13.9 .... -5.9 .... 105 .... 090 .... 3.5
Bsal ............................ 5.6 .... 14.2 .... -3.0 .... 107 .... 090 .... 3.2
rickylovesuall ............... 5.5 .... 14.5 .... -4.5 .... 100 .... 115 .... 8.0
traecy.1 ...................... 5.5 .... 15.1 .... -5.5 .... 100 .... 090 .... 4.0
omicron ...................... 5.3 .... 14.5 .... -6.0 .... 100 .... 100 .... 3.0
Pauldry ....................... 5.2 .... 13.9 .... -6.0 .... 108 .... 109 .... 5.2
200motels ................... 5.2 .... 15.8 .... -7.6 .... 088 .... 122 .... 6.2
talkabout ..................... 5.2 .... 14.7 .... -6.7 .... 090 .... 100 .... 3.0
john mac (-15) ............. 5.2 .... 14.6 .... -5.4 .... 110 .... 094 .... 2.4
E. Fudd ........................ 5.2 .... 10.7 .... -6.6 .... 056 .... 043 .... 6.0
waterways ................... 5.0 .... 14.0 .... -7.3 .... 100 .... 110 .... 4.3
Jerry Seinfeld ............... 5.0 .... 15.0 .... -6.0 .... 100 .... 100 .... 6.0
harps .......................... 4.9 .... 14.4 .... -7.4 .... 090 .... 090 .... 3.1

Con Sensus ................. 4.9 .... 14.1 .... -6.5 .... 090 .... 099 .... 4.2

homolumo ................... 4.9 .... 12.9 .... -7.3 .... 091 .... 099 .... 2.0
jambofc ...................... 4.9 .... 11.8 .... -4.8 .... 090 .... 115 .... 5.5
DOCARCH ................... 4.8 .... 15.8 .... -6.3 .... 110 .... 095 .... 4.2
Tae laidir ..................... 4.8 .... 12.9 .... -7.0 .... 108 .... 096 .... 1.9
cherryghost ................. 4.6 .... 15.5 .... -6.2 .... 090 .... 120 .... 4.0
jd ............................... 4.6 .... 13.7 .... -8.1 .... 095 .... 097 .... 4.8
dasa29 ........................ 4.5 .... 13.0 .... -7.0 .... 110 .... 100 .... 5.0
delw ........................... 4.3 .... 10.3 .... -7.2 .... 090 .... 093 .... 3.5
Deank ......................... 4.2 .... 13.4 .. -14.6 .... 059 .... 028 .... 3.6
Jpmarn ........................ 4.2 .... 10.8 .... -4.5 .... 078 .... 130 .... 5.2
nabber ........................ 4.1 .... 13.2 .... -9.5 .... 079 .... 108 .... 7.8
mickger844posts .......... 4.1 .... 13.6 .... -5.8 .... 079 .... 110 .... 4.0
okla (-5) ...................... 4.1 .... 15.2 .... -6.9 .... 105 .... 095 .... 2.6
snowstreams ................ 3.8 .... 14.3 .... -8.7 .... 087 .... 110 .... 6.0
baraca ......................... 3.7 .... 16.4 .... -8.5 .... 082 .... 123 .... 8.7
dacogawa .................... 3.7 .... 13.8 .... -8.2 .... 089 .... 125 .... 2.1
H2U.MrsRobinson ......... 3.3 .... 11.4 .... -4.9 .... 089 .... 092 .... 6.4
Bejubby ...................... 3.0 .... 13.6 .... -6.0 .... 110 .... 075 .... 6.0
Joe Public .................... 2.9 .... 13.9 .... -7.9 .... 079 .... 129 .... 4.9
Rebelbrowser (-20) ....... 2.9 .... 12.0 .... -9.7 .... 077 .... 088 .... 4.3
M.T. Cranium ............... 2.7 .... 12.0 .... -8.9 .... 080 .... 115 .... 3.5
________________________________________

Penalty points are with name of forecaster, entries are still accepted until penalty reaches 100. As of now it stands at 20, will be 25 after 0300h and 30 after 1500h Monday, etc ...

Consensus of 40 forecasts is for a slightly colder than average month with near normal precip and sunshine. There is about a 50-50 split evident about the possibility of a later warm spell, judging by the max forecasts. Most foresee a partly cloudy day on the 14th, almost nobody went very low -- confirmed with Mindgame that his entry means 1.2 hours.

Speak Now

Did you miss my entry M.T??

M.T. Cranium

Sorry there JS, I had a quick look through the thread and forgot there was one entry the old way. Fixed now.

Speak Now

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

5.0 ..... 15.0 ..... -6.0 .... 100% ..... 100% ..... 6 hours

Here!

M.T. Cranium

The IMT is on 5.1 C after eight days and probably 5.2 now (it was 5.14 so not hard to nudge upward). While this may not mean a lot, the two-week output from the GFS appears to average closer to 3.5 or 4, so we could be at a peak unless the end of the month is very mild.

The rainfall (precip) had been running a bit below pace but hardly worth giving a percentage with two rather wet days ahead. Somewhere around 70% right now.

Sunshine has started out a bit above normal like in January (and we all know how that turned out).

I saw a minimum of -3.6 C at Casement early on, and have not spotted anything too likely to be a monthly max although you never know, there are very few obvious days where 11+ will be recorded after today on model runs.

pauldry

think it was 12.3c in oak park on 13 feb

Rikand

What a gorgeous day today it is! Gonna be maximum sunshine hours from somewhere surely!

pauldry

Id say there was around 7 hours of sun somewhere. Who knows. There was mainly fair weather everywhere but us in Sligo of course got the most cloud as always. Around 2 to 3 hours sun here today and major windchill

M.T. Cranium

Shannon so far the highest at 7.8 hours, and this means that scoring is already "a done deal" even if some other station comes in higher, only two guesses (at a quick glance) were higher than 7.8 (baraca, rickylovesuall), and one more from "nabber" right on the money, no scores closer to 7.8 than the two higher ones, so scores will be in groups of four in the same order as the predictions, even if we get a higher value.

(later data ... no station beat that 7.8 hours, two others had 7.0)

M.T. Cranium

IMT was 5.7 C after 16 days, and 13.2 C at Casement yesterday. Perhaps there was a higher reading previously, I didn't notice it.

IMT will probably slide a little to Thursday, then could be as low as 2 to 3 for rest of the month so that 5.7 is likely to end up in the 4 to 4.5 range, possibly even lower.

pauldry

New low for month?

Currently minus 3 in Sligo if sky stays clear we could get minus 5 but there's cloud nearby

Harps

It reached -6C at Markree last night, already down to -3C again tonight so a chance that'll be beaten again

Nabber

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Shannon so far the highest at 7.8 hours, and this means that scoring is already "a done deal" even if some other station comes in higher, only two guesses (at a quick glance) were higher than 7.8 (baraca, rickylovesuall), and one more from "nabber" right on the money

7.8 did it? I thought i went a tad high. But there you go.

This makes up for the lack of snow.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT is about 5.0 C now (estimating today's impact on the average which was 5.14 C after 23rd). Each day that averages 2.6 Monday to Thursday will result in a further fall of 0.1 per day, to give you a rough idea of the finishing potential. As 2.6 is the average of -2.0 and 7.2 that seems realistic although it's quite approximate, so somewhere between 4.5 and 4.7 seems like the landing zone for this month.

Wasn't it about 14 or 15 deg last year at this time?

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Wasn't it about 14 or 15 deg last year at this time?

Not really, the max for the month was 13.7C at Cork Airport on the 22nd.
The end of March was very good with temps above 20C which was the last dry settled spell up to now.

Harps

Joe Public wrote: »

Not really, the max for the month was 13.7C at Cork Airport on the 22nd.
The end of March was very good with temps above 20C which was the last dry settled spell up to now.

Ogimet shows 14.8C at Oak Park on the 24th..

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&osum=no&state=Irel&fmt=html&ano=2012&mes=02&day=24&hora=00&ord=REV

It might be a lot colder this time round but after 10 days with no rain and 10 hours of unbroken sunshine today I'm not complaining in the slightest!

Joe Public

Harps wrote: »

Ogimet shows 14.8C at Oak Park on the 24th..

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&osum=no&state=Irel&fmt=html&ano=2012&mes=02&day=24&hora=00&ord=REV

It might be a lot colder this time round but after 10 days with no rain and 10 hours of unbroken sunshine today I'm not complaining in the slightest!

I should go to bed for that mistake but on 2nd check the max for the month was officially 15.0C at Phoenix Park on the 23rd.

In short, you are correct M.T.

M.T. Cranium

I wasn't sure about the date, just recalled the general situation from the impact it had on the winter forecast contest.

pauldry

Minus 7 in Sligo new low markree

Minus 1.7c in Sligo town